Early Roland Garros thread

[El Dude]

I'd definitely say Rafa is the favorite now, after beating Novak and showing good form. My final "power rankings":

1. Rafa
2. Novak
3. Thiem
4. Tsitsipas
5. Federer
6. Zverev
7. del Potro
8. Wawrinka
9. Fognini
10. Nishikori

Or something like that. I think 4-6 are somewhat interchangeable, as are 7-10 and maybe a few more added to the mix.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I'd definitely say Rafa is the favorite now, after beating Novak and showing good form. My final "power rankings":

1. Rafa
2. Novak
3. Thiem
4. Tsitsipas
5. Federer
6. Zverev
7. del Potro
8. Wawrinka
9. Fognini
10. Nishikori

Or something like that. I think 4-6 are somewhat interchangeable, as are 7-10 and maybe a few more added to the mix.

4 to 6 are interchangeable?

6 is Sasha. Hope you saw his results (if not play) this clay season. You are saying he is almost the same as Fed or Perseus with respect to chances of winning this RG. I don't think anyone would agree with you.

 

[El Dude]

4 to 6 are interchangeable?

6 is Sasha. Hope you saw his results (if not play) this clay season. You are saying he is almost the same as Fed or Perseus with respect to chances of winning this RG. I don't think anyone would agree with you.

Well, that's why I had Zverev 6th and not 4th or 5th. And I did think twice about saying he was interchangeable, but here's my reasoning for saying so. When he's on, he's fearsome. Unlike Tsitsipas, he has won a big title - four, actually. And he's won on clay. Not only could Roger quite easily lose to a good clay courter in the mid-rounds, I just don't see him having much of a chance against Novak or Rafa in a best of five on clay, whereas Zverev--at 22--might have another level in him that could be tapped into.

I still put him behind Tsitsipas and Federer, though, due to his volatility and recent performance. But I can see a scenario where he finally breaks through in a big way, and think the likelihood of him winning it isn't far off Tsitsipas or Roger...still not good for all three, though.

 

[Fiero425]

Medvedeve got seeded 12th and so cannot face Ralph in R4. So, I replace him Gael Monfils.

Here are the top 12 seeds.

1. Novak
2. Ralph
3. Fed
4. Thiem
5. Sasha
6. Perseus
7. Samurai
8. JMDP
9. Fog
10. Khachanov
11. Cilic
12. Medvedev

Checking out all 32 seeds is a real sight I've been looking forward to seeing for yrs; san Fedalovic! I may keel over waiting for them to topple from the top of the rankings! This is "going on" ridiculous if allowed to persist into "another decade!" :whistle:

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

andrei rublev is out of f.o according to the f.o wiki page.

would'nt be a shock if milos and skeletor berdy withdraw, both have had or still have injuries.

 

[Moxie]

I'd definitely say Rafa is the favorite now, after beating Novak and showing good form. My final "power rankings":

1. Rafa
2. Novak
3. Thiem
4. Tsitsipas
5. Federer
6. Zverev
7. del Potro
8. Wawrinka
9. Fognini
10. Nishikori

Or something like that. I think 4-6 are somewhat interchangeable, as are 7-10 and maybe a few more added to the mix.

Much will depend on the draw, of course, but I'd put del Potro above Zverev on this list, after his showing in Rome v. Djokovic, and as a nod to @isabelle.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, that's why I had Zverev 6th and not 4th or 5th. And I did think twice about saying he was interchangeable, but here's my reasoning for saying so. When he's on, he's fearsome. Unlike Tsitsipas, he has won a big title - four, actually. And he's won on clay. Not only could Roger quite easily lose to a good clay courter in the mid-rounds, I just don't see him having much of a chance against Novak or Rafa in a best of five on clay, whereas Zverev--at 22--might have another level in him that could be tapped into.

I still put him behind Tsitsipas and Federer, though, due to his volatility and recent performance. But I can see a scenario where he finally breaks through in a big way, and think the likelihood of him winning it isn't far off Tsitsipas or Roger...still not good for all three, though.

Sasha has not gone beyond QF in a GS even once. Actually he reached QF only once as well.

He neither has pedigree in slams, nor has current form. 2+2=?

 

[herios]

Sasha has not gone beyond QF in a GS even once. Actually he reached QF only once as well.

He neither has pedigree in slams, nor has current form. 2+2=?

Seems like this fact has been forgotten by @El Dude
If Sasha will make his QF, for him it would be a success.

 

[El Dude]

I am fully aware of Zverev’s track record. I just don’t think his chances of winning Roland Garros are much worse than Federer’s. If anything this says more about my feeling for Roger’s chances than it does for AZ. I think they both have a snowball’s chance; Tsitsipas slightly better.

Oh, and 2+2=4.

 

[Front242]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...xpert-says-rafael-nadal-primed-for-upset/amp/

 

[El Dude]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...xpert-says-rafael-nadal-primed-for-upset/amp/

Those odds in the first paragraph seem about right to me, and fit my "power rankings." Any of Novak, Thiem, or Tsitsipas could upset Rafa, but he's still the favorite. Fognini, Del Potro and Wawrinka are all dangerous, but also all huge question marks and only a threat to Rafa if they play light's out and Rafa is hurting.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

skeletor withdraws..replaced by a lucky loser, someone is gonna lose in q3 on friday then get a nice surprise.

 

[Front242]

Those odds in the first paragraph seem about right to me, and fit my "power rankings." Any of Novak, Thiem, or Tsitsipas could upset Rafa, but he's still the favorite. Fognini, Del Potro and Wawrinka are all dangerous, but also all huge question marks and only a threat to Rafa if they play light's out and Rafa is hurting.

Some of the previous bets he called at massive odds were mighty impressive.

 

[Carol]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...xpert-says-rafael-nadal-primed-for-upset/amp/

LOL they said it last year too, what a nerds! ptttffff

 

[Moxie]

Roland Garros could be like the last Game of Thrones episode.

Having watched it, it was a huge disappointment to most viewers. So if it is, that would mean Rafa wins! :lulz2:

 

[Front242]

LOL they said it last year too, what a nerds! ptttffff

This is one guy so not they and no he didn't. I'd say anyone who got some of his massive bets right knows a hell of a lot.

 

[Moxie]

This is one guy so not they and no he didn't. I'd say anyone who got some of his massive bets right knows a hell of a lot.

I'd say given that he makes a point out of Rafa losing to 2 1HBs this year seems to indicate that he'd less informed than you think. As Mrzz has pointed out, it's a fallacy to say that he beats them more than he doesn't. Plus, let's face it, what he's saying right now is what everyone is. Rafa is favored, and he's more vulnerable than he has been in most past years. That is no news flash.

 

[Front242]

I'd say given that he makes a point out of Rafa losing to 2 1HBs this year seems to indicate that he'd less informed than you think. As Mrzz has pointed out, it's a fallacy to say that he beats them more than he doesn't. Plus, let's face it, what he's saying right now is what everyone is. Rafa is favored, and he's more vulnerable than he has been in most past years. That is no news flash.

I'd say loads of people picked Isner, Wawrinka and Sock to win the events he did alright. He must know nothing.

 

[Moxie]

I'd say loads of people picked Isner, Wawrinka and Sock to win the events he did alright. He must know nothing.

I'm guessing there was a draw when he picked those, or perhaps he only picked the final, they don't say. At this point, his saying what he does means as much as us talking about it. Or me asking my magic 8 ball.

 

[Carol]

This is one guy so not they and no he didn't. I'd say anyone who got some of his massive bets right knows a hell of a lot.

That guy is trying that others should bet to someone else but he will do for Nadal