Early Roland Garros thread

[Fiero425]

Berrettini won a clay event this weekend, Sasha did not.
That is it.

So much for Sascha going into Paris on a roll winning an event beforehand unless he plays one of those 250's 1st! He should think about it!

 

[El Dude]

So much for Sascha going into Paris on a roll winning an event beforehand unless he plays one of those 250's 1st! He should think about it!

I’m fairly certain that Zverev is “thinking about it.”

 

[lob]

Despite his SF loss against Djokovic, I have Thiem as the co-favorite with Nadal(reputation based)
He looked much better off the ground against Djokovic and the madrid conditions(coupled with a tough draw) worked against him since Djokovic was able to serve much better at Madrid than he'll manage at Paris.

You have a point here. However, to me, Djokovic is the clear favorite if they play at RG. Thiem's tough draw didn't help him but it was the SF. He lost the match because his game broke down under pressure from ND. It won't get any easier at RG, especially in best of 5. ND service may not be as effective at RG but ND's return was handling Thiem's serve with ease. So that evens it out.

 

[El Dude]

My current Roland Garros rankings:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Thiem
4. Federer
5. Tsitsipas

After that it is Zverev, Fognini, Medvedev, Pella, Stan, Cecchinato, Garin, Coric, etc, in some order.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds after the market had time to digest Madrid results.

Only a dozen players are given a puncher's chance to win RG (compared to about 22 in the previous edition).

There are three contenders, two pretenders and seven honorable mentions.

1. Ralph 15/8 (34.78%)
2. Novak 9/4 (30.76%)
3. Thiem 9/2 (18.18%)

4. Federer/Perseus 20 ( 4.76%)

6. Sasha 25 (3.85%)
7. Man 40 (2.44%)
8. Fog / Medvedev 50 (1.96%)
10. JMDP / Monfils / Samurai 100 (1%)

p.s. I generally agree with the odds. But, I would put Sasha and Man behind Fog and Med.
​

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think if Novak wins Rome, he will be elevated to Favorite status. If Thiem wins Rome, Ralph would continue to be the favorite, but Novak and Thiem will trade places.

Also, the tie between Fed and Tits would be resolved when they meet in QF at Rome.

 

[Moxie]

a player who is in a good form and looked to be on track to push into the top 32, will not be seeded in the end.
Garin, who I am taking about, skipped both masters.
Madrid made dense, because he was playing the final in Munich he won on Sunday, when Madrid started already and he has not been high enough to get into the main draw 6 weeks before.
But why he did not enter Rome qualifying or play a Challenger this week is a mystery to me.
On top of it he is losing some points this week, so he will be one of those dangerous floaters comes RG.

This is well-spotted. I definitely had Garin pegged to make the main draw at RG. I find nothing in Chilean news, even, other than that he's getting a lot of attention, doing publicity, even today. Perhaps he needed a break. But he'll have to qualify for RG. Unless, maybe he expects a WC or has been promised one?

 

[El Dude]

This is well-spotted. I definitely had Garin pegged to make the main draw at RG. I find nothing in Chilean news, even, other than that he's getting a lot of attention, doing publicity, even today. Perhaps he needed a break. But he'll have to qualify for RG. Unless, maybe he expects a WC or has been promised one?

He is live ranked #37 so won't have to qualify - he just won't be seeded.

 

[MartyB]

He is live ranked #37 so won't have to qualify - he just won't be seeded.

Not sure why Garin passed on Rome. He had played a lot of tennis so maybe this was a much needed rest. He will be a very dangerous opponent for anyone in Paris

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This is well-spotted. I definitely had Garin pegged to make the main draw at RG. I find nothing in Chilean news, even, other than that he's getting a lot of attention, doing publicity, even today. Perhaps he needed a break. But he'll have to qualify for RG. Unless, maybe he expects a WC or has been promised one?

Perhaps, he listened to part one of my advice of not getting seeded (… and drawing Ralph in R1).

 

[Moxie]

Perhaps, he listened to part one of my advice of not getting seeded (… and drawing Ralph in R1).

I'm going to be laughing at you when Garin is drawn earlier to someone other than Nadal, and troubles them. Your other plan is that Thiem would stay #5. That didn't happen.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I have no solid reasoning for this but I think FAA has had some rough draws this clay season so far and he is dying for a breakthrough. If he gets a couple of early round matches under his belt, he may be a real dangerous player at RG.

 

[isabelle]

Berrettini won a clay event this weekend, Sasha did not.
That is it.

and he beat him in Rome...

 

[herios]

Here are the latest odds after the market had time to digest Madrid results.

Only a dozen players are given a puncher's chance to win RG (compared to about 22 in the previous edition).

There are three contenders, two pretenders and seven honorable mentions.

1. Ralph 15/8 (34.78%)
2. Novak 9/4 (30.76%)
3. Thiem 9/2 (18.18%)

4. Federer/Perseus 20 ( 4.76%)

6. Sasha 25 (3.85%)
7. Man 40 (2.44%)
8. Fog / Medvedev 50 (1.96%)
10. JMDP / Monfils / Samurai 100 (1%)

p.s. I generally agree with the odds. But, I would put Sasha and Man behind Fog and Med.
​

Looks like the betters thought a little deeper and they increased Stefano's chances, now he is ahead of Roger.

 

[don_fabio]

Makes sense. How they still keep Zverev on 6th place? The guy has less chance than Cilic who is not even on the list.

 

[Front242]

Obviously without seeing the draw it's very difficult to make a call but I'm very confident Federer will do better at RG than Tsitsipas based on what I saw from Federer against Thiem.

 

[Fiero425]

Makes sense. How they still keep Zverev on 6th place? The guy has less chance than Cilic who is not even on the list.

If he can't get past a qualifier or WC in the 2nd round, how can he be favored to do much of anything? :whistle: :cuckoo:

 

[don_fabio]

Obviously without seeing the draw it's very difficult to make a call but I'm very confident Federer will do better at RG than Tsitsipas based on what I saw from Federer against Thiem.

How about they meet again? That match in AO was nail biter. I want more.

 

[Front242]

How about they meet again? That match in AO was nail biter. I want more.

Would be a good one to see alright. Fed playing badly barely lost so it doesn't bode well for Tsitsipas.

 

[isabelle]

Obviously without seeing the draw it's very difficult to make a call but I'm very confident Federer will do better at RG than Tsitsipas based on what I saw from Federer against Thiem.

for the moment, Stefanos seems in better shape than the injured old Swiss, he's much younger and his body's still fresh