OK. Major part of clay season is over. One final whose outcome we know and a couple of itsy-bitsy tourneys about which nobody cares unless the players involved are your friends or relatives.
It appears that the following four have kind of distinguished themselves.
1. Rafa (Needless to explain).
2. Sasha ( a win in Munich, followed by a win in Madrid, followed by a final in Rome).
3. Thiem (who cares about titles, only man to tame the dirt devil)
4. Novak (ok, it is a stretch to say he distinguished himself, but definitely a better way to end clay season with 4 wins and a loss to devil)
Even Monfed would agree that Rafa is the favorite at RG. I am (and several others in this forum) are of the view that Sasha cannot possibly trouble Rafa in a five setter at RG. Sasha has not yet proved himself at GSs despite winning 3 MS titles. He has not reached QF yet. You cannot seriously expect him to make a huge leap from that status to conquering dirt devil in a five set match at RG.
Even though Novak lost today, it was not a blow out. Rafa won, but failed to make a statement exposing Novak. In other words, Novak's progression is quite good. It may be coming back to him.
I would give the best chance of beating Rafa at RG to Thiem and second best chance to Novak. I would give less than 0.001
percentage chance to all other players put together for beating Rafa.
Unfortunately, folks like Shortman and Andujar failed to deliver in the European clay season part. Other Old Spaniards like Verdasco and Almagro are weaker than ever. PCB might reach R16.
If someone else beats Rafa, there is a good chance that Sasha might win RG even though he has not reached QF before at GSs.