Federberg
The GOAT
- Joined
- Apr 22, 2013
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NI wouldn't vote out (of the UK). Voting out of the EU as part of a UK is very different from voting out from the UK altogether. NI doesn't have the numbers... the Unionist vote would come together and they'd vote to stay in (the UK)... It will take another 15-20 years before there is a Republican majority in NI... and speaking to plenty of citizens of Eire... I'm not sure they want them anyway... a vote out of the UK would lead to prolonged loyalist violence.
Scotland is another matter... but a vote into the EU outside the UK... will be close. They might carry it but it's not a good time for the Scots to do it with the oil price at rock bottom.
So, the UK as a whole... Until I see Article 50 signed and enacted then it's not a done deal... far from it. These contingencies will have been planned for beforehand by the Remain Group... and corporate Europe. I think we're going through a process that will ultimately lead to a second referendum, a few bones throne to swing the vote... and a remain in Europe vote.
I agree with you about N Ireland, and I hope you're right about the rest. But I'm not that optimistic.