Brexit

[Mary]

Lol! It's always interesting hearing about interactions with politicians. My ex- is a doctor, and she had dealings with Cameron before he was PM. She looked after his son, the one who subsequently died, for a while. Her view was that he was one of those extremely pushy guys who really thinks he's the "Big I am", and took an instant dislike to him. Probably one of the reasons I've never been able to warm to him

When you get a bit close you see a lot! Another I did not take to was Margaret Hodge. I worked for Islington training on sickness absence management. Her line was "If they are fit enough to go to the doctor they are fit enough to work!"

 

[Federberg]

A table that tells the story!

 

[britbox]

I was working for British Aerospace at the Farnborough Airshow and we had an exhibition with a battle ground scenario in the middle of the display and workstations around the perimeter demonstrating modelling and development tools and the dignitaries came through on their travels. Blair came through and chatted amiably for a while (I missed him as I had to take a leak) but by all accounts was chatty and at least feigned interest. William Hague (then opposition leader) marched in, pointed at the battle ground scenario, somebody took a photo and then he marched straight out of the building without speaking to anybody... Photo opportunist only. Thought he was a w**ker ever since.

 

[britbox]

A table that tells the story!

View attachment 958

They'll be thanking those with more life experience further down the line. Count themselves lucky...

 

[Federberg]

They'll be thanking those with more life experience further down the line. Count themselves lucky...

Lol! Or B.. they might curse them for it! That's one for the future

 

[EdbergsGhost]

A table that tells the story!

View attachment 958

Posted this one last week, but it fits here.

 

[Moxie]

They'll be thanking those with more life experience further down the line. Count themselves lucky...

Seriously? They had the option to work in the whole EU, and now the door is closed on that. It's not hard to understand why they voted stay, and why they feel their life options are reduced, right?

 

[britbox]

They'll be able to get working visas to the EU and vice versa... and if they just want to travel then they will get a holiday visa.

Australia isn't in the EU either... I decided I wanted to move there and did.

Scare-mageddon scenarios will eventually be eroded over time hopefully...

 

[Moxie]

They'll be able to get working visas to the EU and vice versa... and if they just want to travel then they will get a holiday visa.

Australia isn't in the EU either... I decided I wanted to move there and did.

Scare-mageddon scenarios will eventually be eroded over time hopefully...

I don't know why you think working visas will be simple. I've tried to get them for the EU, and they are very difficult, because of social charges and preferences, and I'm a very qualified professional. If the UK goes out of the EU, it will be the same as it is for us in the US. That is a lock-out of a lot of jobs. Australia is not at all the same for emigrating Brits. Please. They open the door to you. And I'm not talking about kids going to Europe to teach English or work in pubs. I'm talking about mature young Britons with qualifications who could previously hope to work freely in Paris, Madrid, Rome, Berlin, etc., in tech, design, advertising, filmmaking, etc., and now they can't, or will be very limited. Now, either they get a job in the UK or they may not have another option, when previously they did. You may not agree, but that's the way young Britons see it, from what I've read, and based on polls. The understanding is that they feel their options have just been severely limited. And I don't know why they shouldn't feel that way.

 

[britbox]

Australia don't have an open door policy for migrants... they have a points system which applies to all. Working visas for a year are relatively easy though.

Anyway, I'm interested to see where all these jobs for young brits are in the EU that you're talking about? Are you aware of the unemployment figures for young people on the continent? On the whole, they are a lot worse than the UK. Plenty of opportunities for young people worldwide, not just the EU if that's the path they wish to take... and the rules on movement are likely to be liberal as under the present system, there are more EU workers in the UK than vice versa.

 

[britbox]

I'm talking about mature young Britons with qualifications who could previously hope to work freely in Paris, Madrid, Rome, Berlin, etc., in tech, design, advertising, filmmaking, etc., and now they can't, or will be very limited.

Are you involved in the negotiations or know some inside information?

Right now... nothing has changed and there is free movement. Going forward there likely won't be free movement but give up on the continual scaremongering... if the jobs are there and the right people are needed to fill them then it happens... I would expect a fairly liberal policy on economic movement.. because removing it hurts the EU more than the UK... Controlled immigration still means immigration... and both ways - in and out... the world is now a much larger place without being shackled to the EU... an undemocratic slow moving juggernaught to a federal europe that people don't want.

 

[Moxie]

I know that's your opinion. And I'm not interested in joining any scaremongers, but I doubt the landing will be as soft as you imagine on this particular issue. My personal experience with getting EU jobs without an EU passport is that it's hard-to-impossible. You may like to think that the UK will get some kind of easier pass, but I'm not sure why.

 

[britbox]

I know that's your opinion. And I'm not interested in joining any scaremongers, but I doubt the landing will be as soft as you imagine. My particular experience with getting EU jobs without an EU passport is that it's hard. You may like to think that the UK will get some kind of easier pass, but I'm not sure why.

Simply because it is intertwined with Europe in many ways... far more than the US is... and negotiations will revolve around "taking away" rather than giving something new...

Once all the frothing at the mouth has subsided then pragmatism will take over and that will be driven by the economic and commercial dimensions over tribal politics... and like I mentioned before... the EU has more to lose from playing hardball when you compare with the current status quo... there is an imbalance in the two figures when you compare migrant numbers both ways... I don't think it will be a "hard" landing... at least not in the long run.

 

[Moxie]

Simply because it is intertwined with Europe in many ways... far more than the US is... and negotiations will revolve around "taking away" rather than giving something new...

Once all the frothing at the mouth has subsided then pragmatism will take over and that will be driven by the economic and commercial dimensions over tribal politics... and like I mentioned before... the EU has more to lose from playing hardball when you compare with the current status quo... there is an imbalance in the two figures when you compare migrant numbers both ways... I don't think it will be a "hard" landing... at least not in the long run.

Well, let's hope so. But the EU played hardball when Cameron laid his political future on the line, and Britain's. They were not politic or helpful. (I would say they were stupid to the point of egregiously incompetent, which I recognize is part of the complaint.) And they have said nothing other than essentially, "Don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out," to Britain, which I think is short-sighted and punitive. Which makes me think they could be equally punitive about handing out work visas.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

And they have said nothing other than essentially, "Don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out," to Britain, which I think is short-sighted and punitive. Which makes me think they could be equally punitive about handing out work visas.

They cannot strike a conciliatory note as there are movements throughout the EU membership for other countries to extricate themselves from the control of Brussels. At the same time, if they don't make concessions with the existing members, the exodus is only going to ramp up.

The result of the vote for President in Austria has been annulled. The conservative Freedom Party was robbed of the win, and there will be another vote in the Fall. Post Brexit, I think by then the Freedom Party will win with a decent margin.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36681475

 

[britbox]

Well, let's hope so. But the EU played hardball when Cameron laid his political future on the line, and Britain's. They were not politic or helpful. (I would say they were stupid to the point of egregiously incompetent, which I recognize is part of the complaint.) And they have said nothing other than essentially, "Don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out," to Britain, which I think is short-sighted and punitive. Which makes me think they could be equally punitive about handing out work visas.

The EU politicians are puppets Moxie... they are put there by heads of state. The real power brokers will be industry and a select few political power brokers like Merkel. Merkel's own domestic election in Germany is next year.... I don't think she's going to be turning around to German industry to inform them that $100+ billion of goods they export to the UK will now be subject to WTO tarrifs... or ignore the guy at the Chamber of Industry he's wrong when he thinks free trade should continue with the UK... Otherwise I don't think she'll be in a very strong position to remain in position.

Now, the EU are bound to talk tough right now... and they'd be stupid not to... but what they are saying is really for the ears of the remaining nations... not the UK.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

Now, the EU are bound to talk tough right now... and they'd be stupid not to... but what they are saying is really for the ears of the remaining nations... not the UK.

Don't you think the other countries see through it?

 

[Moxie]

Don't you think the other countries see through it?

And don't you think they would have also been well-advised to speak to Britain, now, given what is on the line?

 

[britbox]

Don't you think the other countries see through it?

Yes, but it's the people of those countries that need to hear and believe it... and as we saw by the outrageous scaremongering before Brexit it can have a serious effect... Also many of the mainland countries do have a closer relationship with one another than the UK did.. so the EU isn't as hard a sell. Most Eastern Europeans seem pretty happy with the setup.

 

[Federberg]

Simply because it is intertwined with Europe in many ways... far more than the US is... and negotiations will revolve around "taking away" rather than giving something new...

Once all the frothing at the mouth has subsided then pragmatism will take over and that will be driven by the economic and commercial dimensions over tribal politics... and like I mentioned before... the EU has more to lose from playing hardball when you compare with the current status quo... there is an imbalance in the two figures when you compare migrant numbers both ways... I don't think it will be a "hard" landing... at least not in the long run.

You keep saying that but it's simply not true. And saying it isn't going to alter reality. The EU is now in a bind, their priority now is the integrity of the EU which means that there is far more likely to be a tough stance in negotiations. They simply can't afford to incentivise other nations to leave, which is precisely what rolling over for the UK would do. As for being far worse for the EU again it's the fallacy of an export surplus which might make you think that. If import substitution was a possibility that might be the case but it isn't. The U.K. will be relatively more impacted by leaving the EU, than the EU. It's basic maths.

Already even some Leave campaigners are pointing out that the vote was just advisory. Good luck with that! The old have betrayed the aspirations of the young for a dream that never really existed