Brexit

[britbox]

Lots of good points Mary although I disagree with the "handing over the country to the extreme right wing"... whoever is in power, the British people will able to remove. There were some unsavoury elements on the Brexit ticket but both sides were a rainbow coalition of all types... both campaigns were rather lame with scaremongering and massive exaggerations by both camps.

With the country divided down the middle, it's time for a bit of healing process. There are legitimate concerns and they need to be addressed but overall I think the voters made the right decision. I know others disagree.

The bottom line is every citizen of the UK wants the best for the UK... we just have different views on how that should be achieved.

Britain has huge opportunities here to carve out it's own destiny... something seriously lacking before and I think the EU project is a ticking timebomb... major reform is needed or the whole thing will implode. This needs to be a massive wake up call for Brussels also.

 

[isabelle]

I wish France could do the same...hope us too will stop serving Brussell's interests one day !!

 

[DarthFed]

On a personal level I made a lot of money out of this, but somehow I feel like I've had a spectacular one night stand, and my wife has walked in and caught me in the aftermath. Doesn't feel worth it at all... sigh

Ah, I see I'm not the only one! I kind of felt the same way but not nearly to the same degree as you given that I am not a UK citizen. I can't blame the UK for doing this but it could be a real disaster for the rest of the EU. Maybe in the long, LONG term the EU getting blown up will help the weak economies improve since the training wheels are coming off (that's a matter of philosophical opinion). But there is undoubtedly going to be some tougher times ahead.

 

[britbox]

I wish France could do the same...hope us too will stop serving Brussell's interests one day !!

Might just happen... interesting times ahead.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

Lots of good points Mary although I disagree with the "handing over the country to the extreme right wing"... whoever is in power, the British people will able to remove. There were some unsavoury elements on the Brexit ticket but both sides were a rainbow coalition of all types... both campaigns were rather lame with scaremongering and massive exaggerations by both camps.

With the country divided down the middle, it's time for a bit of healing process. There are legitimate concerns and they need to be addressed but overall I think the voters made the right decision. I know others disagree.

The bottom line is every citizen of the UK wants the best for the UK... we just have different views on how that should be achieved.

Britain has huge opportunities here to carve out it's own destiny... something seriously lacking before and I think the EU project is a ticking timebomb... major reform is needed or the whole thing will implode. This needs to be a massive wake up call for Brussels also.

Looking at the demographic, it was the larger cities, London, Scotland, and N. Ireland that voted to remain. The rest of England and Wales said let's go. In the north the political leanings are different than in the south, but in this they agreed. The Brits are creative, innovative folk. They will figure this out and come up with the best ideas moving forward.

My guess is that the Netherlands is the best organized and ready to press for a referendum of their own. Then maybe France will follow. The many tentacled leviathan that resides in Brussels, by it's very nature is unable to make the drastic changes necessary. Worse yet, their arrogance won't allow them to see the need. I expect they will apply more pressure, become more authoritarian and endeavor to quash any future referendums in member countries.

 

[Federberg]

I've been hesitant to join this discussion as everyone seems so well informed and on the ball with the issues. But this morning feels like a T shirt I once saw which said "Armageddon was yesterday. Today we have a serious problem" So here are my views and fears.

I truly think a major part of the reason behind this vote was that so many people feel alienated from our electoral system. We feel our vote doesn't count unless we are in a marginal constituency. We don't feel we can vote a government out - or in for that matter. The system is not democratic because of the way the electoral boundaries are drawn. The referendum was a rare opportunity to express dissatisfaction with the present system outside of these boundaries and this was an anti austerity vote from the most impoverished areas of the UK.

I have mixed views on the EEC as do so many people. A strong UK could of course survive although hard times would come first. But we are not a strong UK and I am sure Scotland will go for Independence now and Ireland for Unification. The referendum has done untold social and economic damage - the nation is bitterly divided by religious, political and economic views now in addition to the long standing "Have and Have not" and North/South Divisions. And the referendum has given voice to a level of racism that is unbelievable. Some think we have reclaimed sovereignty. I think we are handing the country to the extreme right wing and as an older person living on a limited income it frightens me. I am remembering the words of a politician I deeply respected many years ago.

"I warn you that you will have pain – when healing and relief depend upon payment. I warn you that you will have ignorance – when talents are untended and wits are wasted, when learning is a privilege and not a right. I warn you that you will have poverty – when pensions slip and benefits are whittled away by a government that won’t pay in an economy that can't pay. I warn you that you will be cold – when fuel charges are used as a tax system that the rich don't notice and the poor can't afford.

I warn you that you must not expect work – when many cannot spend, more will not be able to earn. When they don't earn, they don't spend. When they don't spend, work dies. I warn you not to go into the streets alone after dark or into the streets in large crowds of protest in the light. I warn you that you will be quiet – when the curfew of fear and the gibbet of unemployment make you obedient. I warn you that you will have defence of a sort – with a risk and at a price that passes all understanding. I warn you that you will be home-bound – when fares and transport bills kill leisure and lock you up. I warn you that you will borrow less – when credit, loans, mortgages and easy payments are refused to people on your melting income.

I warn you not to be ordinary. I warn you not to be young. I warn you not to fall ill. And I warn you not to grow old."

Yes this is very sad. I recall some 3 or 4 years when the riots happened. I said to my friends that even if it dissipated, something profound had changed. I didn't know what the consequences were, but I was certain it wasn't over. I think we're starting to see it now. I don't care what the polls say, Trump is probably a higher probability to win than the market thinks right now. These things tend to be contagious

 

[Federberg]

Looking at the demographic, it was the larger cities, London, Scotland, and N. Ireland that voted to remain. The rest of England and Wales said let's go. In the north the political leanings are different than in the south, but in this they agreed. The Brits are creative, innovative folk. They will figure this out and come up with the best ideas moving forward.

My guess is that the Netherlands is the best organized and ready to press for a referendum of their own. Then maybe France will follow. The many tentacled leviathan that resides in Brussels, by it's very nature is unable to make the drastic changes necessary. Worse yet, their arrogance won't allow them to see the need. I expect they will apply more pressure, become more authoritarian and endeavor to quash any future referendums in member countries.

Don't forget Poland and Denmark, they're right up there. The demographics seem to indicate the old and the disenfranchised got their revenge. A lot of Labour constituencies voted out. Just when the threat of China and Russia is growing the West seems to be fracturing along class lines. The plutocrats deserve this, it has to be said. For too long the elites have governed and corrupted what we all hoped was a meritocratic and democratic system. Something needed to change. I just wish it wasn't this

 

[Mary]

Yes this is very sad. I recall some 3 or 4 years when the riots happened. I said to my friends that even if it dissipated, something profound had changed. I didn't know what the consequences were, but I was certain it wasn't over. I think we're starting to see it now. I don't care what the polls say, Trump is probably a higher probability to win than the market thinks right now. These things tend to be contagious

This is what I feel. Something is broken that cannot be mended for many years. And we have not seen the end of these divisions in society.

In terms of the EEC my guess would be Sweden or Denmark.

 

[britbox]

Don't forget Poland and Denmark, they're right up there. The demographics seem to indicate the old and the disenfranchised got their revenge. A lot of Labour constituencies voted out. Just when the threat of China and Russia is growing the West seems to be fracturing along class lines. The plutocrats deserve this, it has to be said. For too long the elites have governed and corrupted what we all hoped was a meritocratic and democratic system. Something needed to change. I just wish it wasn't this

Which threat from Russia and China are you talking about?

 

[britbox]

This is what I feel. Something is broken that cannot be mended for many years. And we have not seen the end of these divisions in society.

In terms of the EEC my guess would be Sweden or Denmark.

Good luck to them - most of these countries were taken into a federal Europe by stealth. It would be great to see the people actually asked if they want it.

 

[Federberg]

Which threat from Russia and China are you talking about?

both powers wish to reassume great power status. There's nothing wrong with that per se, but these things tend to be zero sum. It's just a shame that Western institutions are going to be damaged by Brexit

 

[britbox]

How exactly do you propose the EU nullify the threat of China? and I'm still interested what threat you are talking about (military??)... imagined or otherwise?

 

[EdbergsGhost]

This is what I feel. Something is broken that cannot be mended for many years. And we have not seen the end of these divisions in society.

In terms of the EEC my guess would be Sweden or Denmark.

Mary, something has been broken for quite some time. When you take away the people's voice, when you appoint bureaucrats without real understanding of what's going on, when your elected officials pat you on the head like little children and don't do what you elected them to do, when they tell you what to think and how to think and what to say and how to say it whether you agree with it or not, then resentment builds.

This has been twenty years in coming. It's good that the boil has been lanced and all the gunk has surfaced. Healing will come. The people that voted leave aren't evil, xenophobic, racists. Neither are they fat, unintelligent, backward looking and thinking folk. The remain contingent needs to drop that belittling, elitist language or things will take a lot longer to reconcile.

 

[Federberg]

How exactly do you propose the EU nullify the threat of China? and I'm still interested what threat you are talking about (military??)... imagined or otherwise?

I'm not suggesting that the EU alone would nullify China, please don't misunderstand. I am merely saying that it's a pity that Western institutions seem to be fracturing at a time when the international order is not as stable as it has been in the recent past.

As for why China is a threat? That's a long story in itself, but put it this way, the growth trajectory in China is slowing which is a natural part of the journey from agrarian to heavily industrialised economy (it happened in Japan, and Korea, China has just been faster, and given it's size per capita income has not risen as dramatically as in Japan or Korea). China finds itself facing the same problem it's faced throughout it's history. The tension between the coastal regions and the hinterland. There's a huge disparity in income per head between the two and quite a variation in ethnicity as well, Han's versus a whole range of different ethnic groups. This hasn't been a big problem in the last few decades with rapid growth but now the Communist party has to manage the tensions of wealthy coastal regions reluctant to countenance the massive transfers that would be necessary to ensure continued stability for China as a whole. One of the ways Xi Jinping has attempted to maintain control is the anti-corruption drive he's undertaken which is just another way of telling the rich (i.e., the elites in the coastal regions) that they exist at the sufferance of the Communist party. He has also implemented a complete reorganisation of PLA. He has made himself both President and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, just imagine Obama doing something like that? But it's a necessary part of his strategy to try to maintain control and ensure stability in China (which has had a habit of fracturing into warring regions over the centuries. Anyway.. long story short, one of the strategies, a distraction really, is to create an external threat or tension to distract the population and maintain national unity.

My point is that at a time when things like this are happening, and China is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea, it's a pity that Western institutions are looking less united than they have since the end of World War 2. The threat is real

 

[britbox]

Looking at the demographic, it was the larger cities, London, Scotland, and N. Ireland that voted to remain. The rest of England and Wales said let's go. In the north the political leanings are different than in the south, but in this they agreed. The Brits are creative, innovative folk. They will figure this out and come up with the best ideas moving forward.

My guess is that the Netherlands is the best organized and ready to press for a referendum of their own. Then maybe France will follow. The many tentacled leviathan that resides in Brussels, by it's very nature is unable to make the drastic changes necessary. Worse yet, their arrogance won't allow them to see the need. I expect they will apply more pressure, become more authoritarian and endeavor to quash any future referendums in member countries.

A french referendum would be very interesting.... I reckon they'd possibly vote out.

Brexit is going to place huge pressure on the EU across many dimensions. They'll have to either reshape their model or bully member states. Not sure which way they will go yet. I've still got a feeling Britain might engage in a two speed Europe without the political dimension. I know federberg ruled this out... but don't listen to Jean Claude Junker... he's a clown way out of his depth... the real powers behind the throne are Merkel, the banks and the large corporates. This is a high stakes game of RISK that I don't think anyone wants, least of all Germany.

I don't think we've heard the last of this because a domino effect of refererendums across member states could destroy the whole EU Project... and Germany has the most to lose in that scenario because they've got the most invested in it.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

A french referendum would be very interesting.... I reckon they'd possibly vote out.

Brexit is going to place huge pressure on the EU across many dimensions. They'll have to either reshape their model or bully member states. Not sure which way they will go yet. I've still got a feeling Britain might engage in a two speed Europe without the political dimension. I know federberg ruled this out... but don't listen to Jean Claude Junker... he's a clown way out of his depth... the real powers behind the throne are Merkel, the banks and the large corporates. This is a high stakes game of RISK that I don't think anyone wants, least of all Germany.

I don't think we've heard the last of this because a domino effect of refererendums across member states could destroy the whole EU Project... and Germany has the most to lose in that scenario because they've got the most invested in it.

It is going to be a very delicate dance - with knives and daggers. Brussels folk are enraged, elected leaders are probably rather fearful, especially the ones with larger contingents of those ready to leave. This was a good article by the Guardian and you can get a bit of a read on what may be ahead.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...eader-we-want-britain-out-as-soon-as-possible

 

[britbox]

It is going to be a very delicate dance - with knives and daggers. Brussels folk are enraged, elected leaders are probably rather fearful, especially the ones with larger contingents of those ready to leave. This was a good article by the Guardian and you can get a bit of a read on what may be ahead.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...eader-we-want-britain-out-as-soon-as-possible

Sad, but kind of expected from these low calibre politicians. Juncker used to manage about 6 people in his Luxembourg office... now as President of the EU his staff numbers 6% of the entire population of Luxembourg. He's "on watch" already from the real power players... made an arse of himself on a recent visit to Russia... talking as if he was President of the EU in a similar light to the President of the USA.

Fact is, these EU guys are appointed show ponies. The real powers are the Banks, Huge Corporates and a few politicians you could count on one hand... Merkel being the senior one.

I predict these clowns shoot their mouth off for a few weeks before common sense prevails and pragmatic negotiations take place behind closed doors with the people who actually matter...

 

[Federberg]

^My worry is that they'll have no choice but to get us out of the EU as quickly and ruthlessly as possible. Ironically it might end up being a great thing for the remaining countries if they try to create improvements that stop break ups from happening. But we'll not get the benefit of that

 

[Federberg]

^Lol! A lot of 'Leave' voters are already expressing regret. Saying things like "I didn't think my vote would count". I have no words...

 

[britbox]

Clutching at straws Fberg... I voted because I thought my vote wouldn't count... doesn't really cut it with me... Good luck with that argument.