Barcelona Open 2019, Spain, ATP 500

[Murat Baslamisli]

Congrats to Thiem. I like his mentality , not so much his consistency. He has the tools to be a great player. Still not sold if he can do this day in day out, year in year out.

 

[mrzz]

It now seems likes likely that he's the transitional "crown prince of clay" as much as he might be one of several "dukes of clay" for the next half decade.

This is a bit unfair. 2015 aside, Nadal has not lost his grip on clay. I understand your use of "transitional', but it gives an idea that Thiem is filling some void, which is not true. In 2017 and 2018 Nadal still blitzed through everyone on clay. Thiem was the guy who could beat him -- no injuries, no accidents, no loss of confidence, just beat him fair and square -- on both years. Now again in 2019. Whoever are the incoming "dukes of clay" of the next decade, they never did anything close to that. The guy earned it the hard way, locked horns with the greatest of all time on the surface and won 4 times. Since 2016 nobody, not even Djokovic, has a better clay success rate against Nadal.

It might be a different career path, but the quality is there.I am not sure if you were able to catch the match, but if not I suggest to get some long highlights (the ones on ATP site are too short). The barrage of winners is astonishing.

 

[herios]

This is a bit unfair. 2015 aside, Nadal has not lost his grip on clay. I understand your use of "transitional', but it gives an idea that Thiem is filling some void, which is not true. In 2017 and 2018 Nadal still blitzed through everyone on clay. Thiem was the guy who could beat him -- no injuries, no accidents, no loss of confidence, just beat him fair and square -- on both years. Now again in 2019. Whoever are the incoming "dukes of clay" of the next decade, they never did anything close to that. The guy earned it the hard way, locked horns with the greatest of all time on the surface and won 4 times. Since 2016 nobody, not even Djokovic, has a better clay success rate against Nadal.

It might be a different career path, but the quality is there.I am not sure if you were able to catch the match, but if not I suggest to get some long highlights (the ones on ATP site are too short). The barrage of winners is astonishing.

Here I agree with you. Even though Sasha won 2 masters on clay, his skills are not as sound on dirt and now, this year he is a shadow of himself. So there is no other younger guy coming up on clay thus far.

 

[Fiero425]

This is a bit unfair. 2015 aside, Nadal has not lost his grip on clay. I understand your use of "transitional', but it gives an idea that Thiem is filling some void, which is not true. In 2017 and 2018 Nadal still blitzed through everyone on clay. Thiem was the guy who could beat him -- no injuries, no accidents, no loss of confidence, just beat him fair and square -- on both years. Now again in 2019. Whoever are the incoming "dukes of clay" of the next decade, they never did anything close to that. The guy earned it the hard way, locked horns with the greatest of all time on the surface and won 4 times. Since 2016 nobody, not even Djokovic, has a better clay success rate against Nadal.

It might be a different career path, but the quality is there.I am not sure if you were able to catch the match, but if not I suggest to get some long highlights (the ones on ATP site are too short). The barrage of winners is astonishing.

Nole's won enough over Rafa on clay not to be overlooked! It started in 2011 where he was just about unbeatable until Paris SF! In the time before that he won Rome and Madrid over Rafa in straight set finals! Then he stopped Nadal's run in Monte Carlo 2 years later; again in straight sets! :whistle:

 

[mrzz]

Nole's won enough over Rafa on clay not to be overlooked!

Don't worry, I am not overlooking it. That's why I wrote "not even Djokovic". I used him as a bar for a reason.

 

[El Dude]

This is a bit unfair. 2015 aside, Nadal has not lost his grip on clay. I understand your use of "transitional', but it gives an idea that Thiem is filling some void, which is not true. In 2017 and 2018 Nadal still blitzed through everyone on clay. Thiem was the guy who could beat him -- no injuries, no accidents, no loss of confidence, just beat him fair and square -- on both years. Now again in 2019. Whoever are the incoming "dukes of clay" of the next decade, they never did anything close to that. The guy earned it the hard way, locked horns with the greatest of all time on the surface and won 4 times. Since 2016 nobody, not even Djokovic, has a better clay success rate against Nadal.

It might be a different career path, but the quality is there.I am not sure if you were able to catch the match, but if not I suggest to get some long highlights (the ones on ATP site are too short). The barrage of winners is astonishing.

Thiem is transitional in that he's (seemingly) the glue that connects the Rafa era on clay with the NextGen. There is no other LostGenner who is as good on clay. That doesn't mean he's not a really good clay courter or that he won't hold his own, it is just that he's both coming in the wake of the clay GOAT and before an overall more talented generation.

That said, of the NextGenners only Zverev has done much of anything on clay so far, but I suspect that will change in the next year or two. I would still say that Thiem is currently the third best clay courter on tour, unless Roger reclaims his form from 2012 and before.

Anyhow, my main point is that we're not getting the gap between Rafa and NextGen that we thought we might be getting at the end of 2016. Not only did Rafa come back in 2017, but Novak rebounded in 2018 and now even Roger is coming back to clay. The gap between Thiem and the best clay NextGenners will get narrower over the next couple years, so while he has some years to win big, he may never really have a time in which he's the clear clay front-runner.

 

[tented]

I disagree w/ that. His serve was a bit better in 2018. It's really bad this year, but then again his overall game doesn't look as good this year.

If his serve is worse, and his overall game doesn’t look good, why not look for another coach?

What other changes would you have him make? Other than standing on the baseline instead of NJ when returning, he plays the game a certain way. He's not going to become a completely different player at this stage of his career.

Nor would I expect or want him to become a completely different player at this stage, even if it were possible. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t make a few adaptations which would benefit him, such as Roger has done with his BH. (And, yes, getting Rafa to stop standing in NJ when returning would be desirable.) They’ve aged, so they can’t stay exactly the same.

 

[kskate2]

If his serve is worse, and his overall game doesn’t look good, why not look for another coach?

I guess I'm of the mind it's not the coaching that's responsible for this form. If not Moya, who would you like to see him hire?

Nor would I expect or want him to become a completely different player at this stage, even if it were possible. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t make a few adaptations which would benefit him, such as Roger has done with his BH. (And, yes, getting Rafa to stop standing in NJ when returning would be desirable.) They’ve aged, so they can’t stay exactly the same.

I just think he's older and he's declining just like all the greats before him.

 

[herios]

As far as Rafa failing in both MC and Barcelona, remains to be seen now what will he do in the next 2 masters. Let's see if it is a slow decline or a faster one.

 

[mrzz]

and before an overall more talented generation.

Well, in a nutshell that is the part I don't agree with, but "talent" is subjective, so nobody is wrong or right in this.

 

[Moxie]

I’ve been saying the same. There are two ways to get to the top. Make a splash or steady progression. Second route is always less celebrated

This is a good point. Some folks really don't respect hard work and dedication, and somehow think it means you're not talented if you work hard. Our old pal Cali made it his mission to dismiss Nadal as untalented...just a hard worker with a good head. Thiem has put in the work, he's really strong, and is making himself into a top player. I'm rather loathe to make the Wawrinka comparison, but there is something in there.

I really won't dig up old messages because of that, but being kind of a Thiem fan -- or at least someone who always thought the guy is really good, I really lost count on how many times I have read people dismissing his level. Since early 2017 it was clear what he could do. In terms of sustained level and I have no doubt he is head and shoulders above all his younger peers. Still some things to polish on hard courts, for sure.

I do know what you mean. Even @El Dude is doing it now. I know there have been ups and downs, accusations of over-playing, and giving him a hard time for not having better results on HCs. But I like Thiem's chances going forward over rather flashier players. It was JohnSteinbeck that introduced Thiem to us many years back, and I've been hoping for him to do well, ever since. (OK, just not today. )

 

[El Dude]

It isn't dismissing Thiem to point out his limitations or not see him as a future #1. He is what he is: a very good player and a top 5 clay player. I see him as Tsonga-esque in terms of talent, just not a future #1. In a more favorable context, Tsonga could have won Slams. Thiem will have a more favorable context.

 

[Moxie]

Thiem is transitional in that he's (seemingly) the glue that connects the Rafa era on clay with the NextGen. There is no other LostGenner who is as good on clay. That doesn't mean he's not a really good clay courter or that he won't hold his own, it is just that he's both coming in the wake of the clay GOAT and before an overall more talented generation.

That said, of the NextGenners only Zverev has done much of anything on clay so far, but I suspect that will change in the next year or two. I would still say that Thiem is currently the third best clay courter on tour, unless Roger reclaims his form from 2012 and before.

Anyhow, my main point is that we're not getting the gap between Rafa and NextGen that we thought we might be getting at the end of 2016. Not only did Rafa come back in 2017, but Novak rebounded in 2018 and now even Roger is coming back to clay. The gap between Thiem and the best clay NextGenners will get narrower over the next couple years, so while he has some years to win big, he may never really have a time in which he's the clear clay front-runner.

I don't agree that Thiem is Lost Gen. I know he's on the cusp, but he came up a bit late and I put him on the older edge of NextGen. And I'm sure you didn't mean to say it this way, but it's not an "overall" more talented generation that he's in the wake of. It's really just 3 players. You're also making an assumption that the youngsters coming up are more talented. That's a lot to assume, because we have yet to see how they do. While they figure themselves out, Thiem is not just giant-killing in moments, he's on the edge of real break-through. You're calling him "transitional," but serious, to what? You're not going to get another Nadal in the next few years. He may never be a clay god, but he will be a force to be reckoned with on clay going forward, and likely on other surfaces. When Nadal hangs them up, there will be a lot of disputing the clay.

 

[Moxie]

As far as Rafa failing in both MC and Barcelona, remains to be seen now what will he do in the next 2 masters. Let's see if it is a slow decline or a faster one.

As El Dude pointed out, he didn't do that in 2014 or 2015 either, and he did still win RG in 2014. Best of 5 on clay is a whole different deal. Look at Thiem's results there. He doesn't love to play on the courts in Madrid, but may be on form by Rome. In any case, he's still something like 103-5/2 on clay in b/o 5. When he finds the feel, the confidence and the range, he'll still be hard to beat on clay.

 

[mrzz]

Some folks really don't respect hard work and dedication, and somehow think it means you're not talented if you work hard

You have a point there, but I would add a few things. The first is, we (and I mean fans in general) simply don't know how hard these guys train or not. We mostly assume thing based on what we see or want to believe, from what we may hear here and there. I can bet good money that a lot of people, even here were everyone is well informed, are sure that, for example, Federer does not train that hard, because he is more "talented". I honestly doubt it. The level of the top 20 guys is just absurd, they need to train A LOT. Players around #100 train like dogs. Around #300 as well. The top guys probably work even harder (with better conditions, that is for sure).

Having said that, I have just seen Thiem jumping and firing fantastic one handed backhand winners from the air. Firing inside out torpedos that touch the line, finding delicate slice drop shots, hitting running forehands just after the ball hits the ground -- almost a half volley -- with tons of side spin in perfect counter attacks, all that in possibly the toughest environment for a tennis player (on clay against Nadal), so no, I cannot buy that there is no one in the Next Gen or younger who are hands down more talented than the guy. He worked hard to get to that level? Sure he did. But without loads of talent he would never be able to practice those things, and more importantly would not even dream of being able to translate them from practice to match play.

 

[herios]

As El Dude pointed out, he didn't do that in 2014 or 2015 either, and he did still win RG in 2014. Best of 5 on clay is a whole different deal. Look at Thiem's results there. He doesn't love to play on the courts in Madrid, but may be on form by Rome. In any case, he's still something like 103-5/2 on clay in b/o 5. When he finds the feel, the confidence and the range, he'll still be hard to beat on clay.

Ok, don't want to empty your half glass full , but you cannot convince me that a player at 33y of age is capable of same performance as he was at 28.
I know all that late career high performances we witness in this era, however, the older they are the more inconsistent they become. That does not mean they will not have very high highs, but more valleys will come their way.

 

[Moxie]

Ok, don't want to empty your half glass full , but you cannot convince me that a player at 33y of age I capable of same performance as he was at 28.
I know all that late career high performances we witness in this era, however, the older they are the more inconsistent they become. That does not mean they will not have very high highs, but more valleys will come their way.

Agreed they become more inconsistent. We can look at Federer. Who has won 3 Majors from age 35. They won't be as consistent, but they are capable of saving it for the big moments and still getting big trophies.

 

[Moxie]

You have a point there, but I would add a few things. The first is, we (and I mean fans in general) simply don't know how hard these guys train or not. We mostly assume thing based on what we see or want to believe, from what we may hear here and there. I can bet good money that a lot of people, even here were everyone is well informed, are sure that, for example, Federer does not train that hard, because he is more "talented". I honestly doubt it. The level of the top 20 guys is just absurd, they need to train A LOT. Players around #100 train like dogs. Around #300 as well. The top guys probably work even harder (with better conditions, that is for sure).

Having said that, I have just seen Thiem jumping and firing fantastic one handed backhand winners from the air. Firing inside out torpedos that touch the line, finding delicate slice drop shots, hitting running forehands just after the ball hits the ground -- almost a half volley -- with tons of side spin in perfect counter attacks, all that in possibly the toughest environment for a tennis player (on clay against Nadal), so no, I cannot buy that there is no one in the Next Gen or younger who are hands down more talented than the guy. He worked hard to get to that level? Sure he did. But without loads of talent he would never be able to practice those things, and more importantly would not even dream of being able to translate them from practice to match play.

Excellent post. If you'll indulge me for a second, the great artist Chuck Close said this: “Amateurs look for inspiration; the rest of us just get up and go to work.” That's why I get sick of hearing about the players who are "so talented" but consistently underperform. There is some notion of "talent" that's just a fetish and not really useful as a measure of accomplishment.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As far as Rafa failing in both MC and Barcelona, remains to be seen now what will he do in the next 2 masters. Let's see if it is a slow decline or a faster one.

How about if Fed beats Rafa in Madrid and Nole beats Rafa in Rome?

 

[Federberg]

I don't agree that Thiem is Lost Gen. I know he's on the cusp, but he came up a bit late and I put him on the older edge of NextGen. And I'm sure you didn't mean to say it this way, but it's not an "overall" more talented generation that he's in the wake of. It's really just 3 players. You're also making an assumption that the youngsters coming up are more talented. That's a lot to assume, because we have yet to see how they do. While they figure themselves out, Thiem is not just giant-killing in moments, he's on the edge of real break-through. You're calling him "transitional," but serious, to what? You're not going to get another Nadal in the next few years. He may never be a clay god, but he will be a force to be reckoned with on clay going forward, and likely on other surfaces. When Nadal hangs them up, there will be a lot of disputing the clay.

he's far from the lost gen in my view. Compare what he's done to Dimitrov and it's obvious. The guy is a couple of years younger, won more titles, been a slam finalist. Continues to improve every year. These labels get a bit silly if we can't just step back and look at the body of work. I've always had confidence believing Thiem will be slam winner, never felt the same way about Dimi. Heck I'm not even sure about Zverev these days