2020 Predictions and Speculations

[Moxie]

I think the hard thing is for any of the nextGen players to be automatically expected to be consistently good. None of the big 3 had back to back Majors wins when they first broke through. Federer was a bit of a head case, talented but erratic, and Novak had the rep of not having enough stamina/endurance. Nadal won very early on and he was dominant on the clay from the getgo but even Rafa needed a couple of years to win a Major on another surface.

So if any of NG nabs a big win, I expect more of a 2 steps forward 1 step back type of circuitous path. Having three 10+ Majors winners in one era has skewed expectations unrealistically.

I think this is a decent reality-check. @Front242 has been pushing hard on the notion that Medvedev could be #1 by mid-next year, or whatever. But the question, first of all, is consistency. Not to mention breaking the glass ceiling of #2, before anyone else gets to #1. So far, the best of them have been 2 steps forward and 1 step back. Let's see how they do in 2020. I think better, but how much better is a big question mark.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Okay, I am officially a big 3 hater now. I hate them, and I specially hate all their fans. I will have so much fun seeing they win zero majors in 2020. Why? Because they will not be good enough. Slowly repeating:

They - will - not - be - good - enough.

I cannot way to see the excuses given to explain their losses to the likes of Tsitsipas, Medvedev, Zverev and Berretini. They will also fall to unheralded names like, I don't know, Carreno Busta and Mannarino.

And then people will start to look for reasons for the sudden drop in form. They will find a lot of strange explanations for a phenomenon which will not occur, because there will be no sudden drop in form, just one or two more steps down the latter and that will be enough to make them lose around QF's. There will be a sudden spike in audience for some old matches in youtube.

And then someone will cry about the historical injustice of the big three being dethroned by this generation in particular -- their merit merely is to have the right age at the right time. Slowly but steadily people will start paying more attention to those guys than to the big three. And, seeing them lose time and again, at some point someone will question... maybe they were not that good after all. Maybe it was just all weak competition.

So unfair. But I won't care.

It will be so much fun.

Interesting.

Honest question, gun to your head, your life depends on it and you actually want to live (can't blame anyone if they don't to be honest), would you say the big 3 win a combined zero majors in 2020?

 

[brokenshoelace]

One guy I'm interested in is Thiem. I've given everyone grief for considering him "NextGen" for like half a decade, but that technicality aside, I wonder what he'll be up to next year. He's clearly been the second best player on clay...I mean he has only lost to Nadal at RG for 3 consecutive years...if Nadal hadn't rediscovered his form post 2016, we could have been talking about Thiem as someone who won 3 back-to-back French Opens. And yet, something about him remains a bit unconvincing even on clay (though I'm not talking about his game). I don't look at him and think "man, that's a multiple time GS champion in another era" the way I do with some of Federer's contemporaries in his heyday. Maybe it's his disappointing results on other surfaces and in that regard, maybe the WTF is a positive for him as he showed he can play on hards.

The thing about him is from a technical perspective, his game has most of what you'd want a modern tennis player to have. Good athleticism, good movement and footwork, big ground strokes (probably the best forehand out of any non big 3 player), big serve, etc...But I don't know, something about him feels off.

 

[Andy22]

2020 season going to be epic with nadal tearing apart Federer everywhere, owning next gen just like this season also takeing care of Djokovic and anyone else who stands in his way with his god level clay court game at RG, of course nadal always step up for spain so most likely wins gold metal as well.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

One guy I'm interested in is Thiem. I've given everyone grief for considering him "NextGen" for like half a decade, but that technicality aside, I wonder what he'll be up to next year. He's clearly been the second best player on clay...I mean he has only lost to Nadal at RG for 3 consecutive years...if Nadal hadn't rediscovered his form post 2016, we could have been talking about Thiem as someone who won 3 back-to-back French Opens. And yet, something about him remains a bit unconvincing even on clay (though I'm not talking about his game). I don't look at him and think "man, that's a multiple time GS champion in another era" the way I do with some of Federer's contemporaries in his heyday. Maybe it's his disappointing results on other surfaces and in that regard, maybe the WTF is a positive for him as he showed he can play on hards.

The thing about him is from a technical perspective, his game has most of what you'd want a modern tennis player to have. Good athleticism, good movement and footwork, big ground strokes (probably the best forehand out of any non big 3 player), big serve, etc...But I don't know, something about him feels off.

You say, ``there is something about Thiem''.

1. It used to be the case that he is not good on hard courts. But, recently he has proved that he has substantially improved on hard courts as well. After all he beat Fed in IW and both Fed and Novak in WTF.

2. The main problem with his game is it is basically power play. He hits big off both wings. When he does that he can (and has already proved) basically take the racquet off the opponent. However, he does not have much of a variety. Also, he does not have much of plan B (but is not a pure ball basher like KK). Finally, he needs lot more time to line up his shots. If the opponent can take time away from Thiem, he will generally struggle.

 

[Front242]

2020 season going to be epic with nadal tearing apart Federer everywhere, owning next gen just like this season also takeing care of Djokovic and anyone else who stands in his way with his god level clay court game at RG, of course nadal always step up for spain so most likely wins gold metal as well.

Tearing apart Federer everywhere? The shit you write here is fucking hilarious. Besides RG this year he hasn't beaten him since the AO 2014 and that in case you have forgotten was just after his worst year on tour where his back was fucked most of 2013. Crawl back to your cave and say hi to the other Nadal nutter.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Tearing apart Federer everywhere? The shit you write here is fucking hilarious. Besides RG this year he hasn't beaten him since the AO 2014 and that in case you have forgotten was just after his worst year on tour where his back was fucked most of 2013. Crawl back to your cave and say hi to the other Nadal nutter.

Oh I thought h2h didn’t matter since you Federer fans were saying that from 2003 until ironically 2014... but now it matters all of a sudden between 2015-2017? Go have a seat and watch Nadal pass Federer in the slam titles and take it like a man

 

[mrzz]

Interesting.

Honest question, gun to your head, your life depends on it and you actually want to live (can't blame anyone if they don't to be honest), would you say the big 3 win a combined zero majors in 2020?

Gun to my head I would never go against historical statistics.

But, still gun to my head, I would very confident say that, once they stop winning, they will stop for good. The part of my "prediction" which I have less confidence is when the "cut off" in major wins will start. I thought it would be 2019 (wrong), and now I arbitrarily set it as 2020... again, as I said in a previous post: I feel like that guy on "The Big Short" movie. I am pretty sure about the "fundamentals" behind my "forecast", even if the forecast itself still did not materialize.

 

[Front242]

Oh I thought h2h didn’t matter since you Federer fans were saying that from 2003 until ironically 2014... but now it matters all of a sudden between 2015-2017? Go have a seat and watch Nadal pass Federer in the slam titles and take it like a man

That post had nothing to do with h2h and was to illustrate the sheer stupidity of claiming he's "tearing Federer apart everywhere" when the reality is he's beaten him just once since 2014.

 

[Andy22]

That post had nothing to do with h2h and was to illustrate the sheer stupidity of claiming he's "tearing Federer apart everywhere" when the reality is he's beaten him just once since 2014.

if was smart you would know that I meant next season not [2017] where he finally had a good against nadal only took him 13 years lol, 2020 tearing Federer apart which nadal will do easy not struck in the past like you if I was could say nadal still owns overall lead h2h and owns Federer in majors 10-4. which is way better than recent matches where really only one good season 2017, but if look at all the seasons its 6-3 to nadal clearly owns Federer overall seasons as well 2004 2006 2008 2011 2013 2014] so not just [2013] like you said clearly you don't like maths or stats because not good at them by the way nadal went 3-1 against Federer in 2011 then he was still in his prime but still got owned, anyway was Federer was getting used a doormat by nadal-djokovic from 2010-16.

 

[Andy22]

That post had nothing to do with h2h and was to illustrate the sheer stupidity of claiming he's "tearing Federer apart everywhere" when the reality is he's beaten him just once since 2014.

your so sad that have to say the stat that matters the least recent matches not two big ones overall h2h+major matches h2h, but I guess you Fedheads have to grab the small things with Federer not winning a major this season lol.

 

[Moxie]

One guy I'm interested in is Thiem. I've given everyone grief for considering him "NextGen" for like half a decade, but that technicality aside, I wonder what he'll be up to next year. He's clearly been the second best player on clay...I mean he has only lost to Nadal at RG for 3 consecutive years...if Nadal hadn't rediscovered his form post 2016, we could have been talking about Thiem as someone who won 3 back-to-back French Opens. And yet, something about him remains a bit unconvincing even on clay (though I'm not talking about his game). I don't look at him and think "man, that's a multiple time GS champion in another era" the way I do with some of Federer's contemporaries in his heyday. Maybe it's his disappointing results on other surfaces and in that regard, maybe the WTF is a positive for him as he showed he can play on hards.

The thing about him is from a technical perspective, his game has most of what you'd want a modern tennis player to have. Good athleticism, good movement and footwork, big ground strokes (probably the best forehand out of any non big 3 player), big serve, etc...But I don't know, something about him feels off.

I get why you push against Thiem being NextGen, and also why you wonder if he's "all that." Suddenly he seems to be rounding into form. He's more mature than the youngsters. GSM said above that he has a big take-up on his swings, but he managed to find a really aggressive form in the YEC, recently, on a fast surface. That was surprising. He's a smart player, even if he doesn't come off as a genius player. I've compared him to Wawrinka, which isn't original. I thought that he demonstrated a lot of interesting adjustments at the ATP finals. Perhaps being just that much older than the NextGen is making him just that much more mature, and ahead of the race for next best players.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, I think we're entering peak Thiem. I don't see him getting much better, but he's really good right now and might earn better results as he gains confidence.

As for the generation thing, it is all very arbitrary, but I like the five-year spans of 1979-83 (Fed's Gen), 1984-88 (Nadalkovic), 1989-93 (Lost Gen), 1994-98 (Next Gen), and 1999-2003 (Whatever they are). Technically Thiem is at the very tail end of Lost Gen (born in Sept 1993), but given that these ranges are arbitrary, he might just represent the transitional player between the two. He also does seem to be the best player born in the range of 1992-95, maybe even all the way back to 1989, so he could also be seen as the "best of Lost Gen," or the player that bridged two eras.

He also was a bit of a late-bloomer, at least historically speaking, not finishing in the top 20 until 2015, the year he turned 22. So that kind of edges him more towards Next Gen, as NextGenners like Kyrgios, Pouille, and Zverev weren't far behind him.

 

[El Dude]

I'm going bold on my boy, Felix Auger-Aliassime. He's going to win a big title in 2020 and challenge for a Slam. I don't think he'll win one, but he'll go deep (SF+) at least once.

On a side note, FAA is the highest year-end ranked teenager since (#21 at age 19) since Novak and Andy finished #16 and #17 at 19 years old in 2006. Shapovalov and de Minaur were close in 2018, finishing #27 and #31, respectively, and Zverev was #24 in 2016.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I'm going bold on my boy, Felix Auger-Aliassime. He's going to win a big title in 2020 and challenge for a Slam. I don't think he'll win one, but he'll go deep (SF+) at least once.

On a side note, FAA is the highest year-end ranked teenager since (#21 at age 19) since Novak and Andy finished #16 and #17 at 19 years old in 2006. Shapovalov and de Minaur were close in 2018, finishing #27 and #31, respectively, and Zverev was #24 in 2016.

My feeling is that he needs a big name coach especially someone who can clean up his service game and his UFEs..for him to make the big jump as you are predicting..this time you and I are on the same page

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Thiem will end up with a 10-2 record against Federer. Lovely guy.

 

[Andy22]

Thiem will end up with a 10-2 record against Federer. Lovely guy.

thiem owning Federer just like king nadal did most of his career, already hear the age excurses coming from a mile away from Federer nutters like front242] anyway its clear that nadal showed thiem how to beat federer for 10 years with his masterpiece game thiem just copied him and now his 5-2 h2h against Federer, anyone who copys nadal masterpiece game will easy beat Federer-Djokovic.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Yeah, I think we're entering peak Thiem. I don't see him getting much better, but he's really good right now and might earn better results as he gains confidence.

As for the generation thing, it is all very arbitrary, but I like the five-year spans of 1979-83 (Fed's Gen), 1984-88 (Nadalkovic), 1989-93 (Lost Gen), 1994-98 (Next Gen), and 1999-2003 (Whatever they are).
.

Aren't they Millenials?

 

[Nadalfan2013]

thiem owning Federer just like king nadal did most of his career, already hear the age excurses coming from a mile away from Federer nutters like front242] anyway its clear that nadal showed thiem how to beat federer for 10 years with his masterpiece game thiem just copied him and his 5-2 h2h against Federer, anyone who copys nadal masterpiece game will easy beat Federer-Djokovic.

Excellent post. I’d like to also add that Thiem should give 25% of his career earnings to Nadal because without Nadal’s amazing inspiration and how he showed everyone how to play at such a high level, Thiem would not even be in the Top 50 and many other top players would struggle too. Nadal changed the tennis world and showed everyone how to play true great tennis. B-)

 

[don_fabio]

Aren't they Millenials?

They are generation Z.