2020 Predictions and Speculations

El Dude

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Aren't they Millenials?

But so are Rafa and Novak, and even Roger is borderline. Millenials were born roughly from the early 80s to mid-2000s, depending upon source. I think Strauss-Howe theory has Millenials as 1982-2004.
 

Moxie

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But so are Rafa and Novak, and even Roger is borderline. Millenials were born roughly from the early 80s to mid-2000s, depending upon source. I think Strauss-Howe theory has Millenials as 1982-2004.
Grouping people as a cultural generation is much different than grouping them as a tennis/athletic generation, and I always think you do a good job of that. I also appreciate your explanation of what makes Thiem somewhat on the cusp, and why we think of him a bit as Next Gen. There are always going to be players that don't quite fit tidily into a group, and Thiem is significant enough that we like to discuss it. Of course it doesn't matter a huge lot where we put him...his career will be his, whichever way.
 
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Fiero425

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But so are Rafa and Novak, and even Roger is borderline. Millenials were born roughly from the early 80s to mid-2000s, depending upon source. I think Strauss-Howe theory has Millenials as 1982-2004.

I never cared about such things and really don't pay much attention, but I'm pretty sure I gave up on it when "Gen X'rs" came into the picture, mid 80's being "Punks" and "Rappers!" The butchery with the hair after the Farrah Fawcett days was unnerving! Black lipstick and nail polish became the rage; even on the guys! I don't miss any of it! :whistle: :nono: :facepalm: :banghead: :cuckoo: :rolleyes:
 

El Dude

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I never cared about such things and really don't pay much attention, but I'm pretty sure I gave up on it when "Gen X'rs" came into the picture, mid 80's being "Punks" and "Rappers!" The butchery with the hair after the Farrah Fawcett days was unnerving! Black lipstick and nail polish became the rage; even on the guys! I don't miss any of it! :whistle: :nono: :facepalm: :banghead: :cuckoo: :rolleyes:

old.jpg
 
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Moxie

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my only bold prediction is Djokovic will never win another major
That IS bold. You join @mrzz, who thinks all of the big 3 are done. While Roger seems like a long-shot, to me, to win another Major, I wouldn't really even count him out. Rafa and Novak, at 33 and 32...I find it hard to believe they don't each have a couple left in them. I have noted a significant drop-off in optimism about Novak, though, after the last several months. He hasn't sprung back to the same kind of dominance of the time before his "walkabout." Still, as I said before, I find it a little hard to imagine that they'll all 3 drop off the cliff at the same time.
 
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El Dude

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The thing is, we have to recalibrate expectations for the Big 3 after every Slam. Things can change quickly. Roger could discover the fountain of youth and win it, and then we'd be talking a 2nd and even 3rd; or he could be Olderer and we might be expecting a Basel retirement announcement. Rafa could come in looking hobbled and the vultures will be circling at Roland Garros, or he could get that Double Slam and people will be talking 22+. Novak...who knows. He's more of a wildcard than the other two.

It will be a new year and I expect to see Next Gen to continue to rise in a way that Lost Gen never did. They'll be hungry and more confidence at the AO, with Thiem, Zverev, Tsitisipas, and Medvedev all seriously contenders for the title, and a bunch of other guys hungry to at least be spoilers. The problem for the Big 3 is not only their own aging--which is very slow--but that there are more and more serious road-blocks and possible upsets in their path. This isn't a few years ago, when the "spoilers" were guys like Berdych, Tsonga, Raonic and Nishikori. Next Gen is (going to be) better than those bozos, and they're on the rise.

Given all that, I think the Big 3 have something like 3-5 Slam titles left between them: maybe 2-3 in 2020, 1-2 in 2021, and 0-1 in 2022. How those are spread out remains to be seen. Ranges are probably 0-1 for Roger, 1-3 for Rafa, and 1-4 for Novak.
 
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That IS bold. You join @mrzz, who thinks all of the big 3 are done. While Roger seems like a long-shot, to me, to win another Major, I wouldn't really even count him out. Rafa and Novak, at 33 and 32...I find it hard to believe they don't each have a couple left in them. I have noted a significant drop-off in optimism about Novak, though, after the last several months. He hasn't sprung back to the same kind of dominance of the time before his "walkabout." Still, as I said before, I find it a little hard to imagine that they'll all 3 drop off the cliff at the same time.

Not the other two, just Djokovic ->

Prediction:

AO: NextGen’s path clear with upsets and Djokovic not up to par... I’ll go Medvedev since he has lately been the most consistent (before the overplaying caught up). Medvedev def. Tsitsipas in final
FO: Nadal def. NextGen
Wimbledon: Federer def. NextGen
USO: Nadal def. NextGen
 

Nadalfan2013

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This isn't a few years ago, when the "spoilers" were guys like Berdych, Tsonga, Raonic and Nishikori. Next Gen is (going to be) better than those bozos, and they're on the rise.

Only because the Big 3 are getting older. Otherwise, the Next Gen would have become victims like these guys you named if faced with the Big 3 in their prime.
 
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don_fabio

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How will Nadal and Novak age remains to be seen, but these guys are not going to give up just like that. They have a champion mentality and they will find a way. None of them are done and they probably won't be for another 4-5 years. That's 16-20 slams on a table. They want to play as long as possible same as Roger. The longer they play the bigger the chances of winning slams. I don't think Nadal will come to RG 2024 looking to go out in R3. Same for Novak in AO/Wimbledon. They will adjust their schedule and peak where they think is best for them to still have chances for winning slams.

Can't wait for the next season to see young guys continue to challenge the big 3. Hope to see some epic matches.
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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my only bold prediction is Djokovic will never win another major

You Can't Be Serious? (from the wise words of John Mac)

I must add I am a bit puzzled about him playing the exhibition tournament late December, then the ATP Cup and now he has added the new tournament in Adelaide which runs into the AO?
 
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the AntiPusher

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How will Nadal and Novak age remains to be seen, but these guys are not going to give up just like that. They have a champion mentality and they will find a way. None of them are done and they probably won't be for another 4-5 years. That's 16-20 slams on a table. They want to play as long as possible same as Roger. The longer they play the bigger the chances of winning slams. I don't think Nadal will come to RG 2024 looking to go out in R3. Same for Novak in AO/Wimbledon. They will adjust their schedule and peak where they think is best for them to still have chances for winning slams.

Can't wait for the next season to see young guys continue to challenge the big 3. Hope to see some epic matches.
I think I might be the only one left on the board who prefers a big 3 plus maybe Stan final for the grandslams. Besides the debacle at last years AO, the tennis is usually at the level of Wimbledon 2019, masterfully played and the shots are astonishing
 

Ricardo

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Next Gen is (going to be) better than those bozos
who gave you permission to call them bozos? what have you accomplished in your life to allow you to talk as if you are on a pedestal? they are all one in a million talent, while you most definitely are an average joe mouthing off behind the screen.

Never cease to amaze me how often people these days just talk shit without looking into the mirror. You better show something if you say they are just bozos.....my guess is you have nothing to show for.
 

don_fabio

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I think I might be the only one left on the board who prefers a big 3 plus maybe Stan final for the grandslams. Besides the debacle at last years AO, the tennis is usually at the level of Wimbledon 2019, masterfully played and the shots are astonishing
Yeah, they bring the best out of each other and the history they share with their rivalries makes it so exciting to watch. They are under our skin after so many years. Djodal is my favourite followed by Fedal. I also enjoy watching Stan when in Stanimal mode and his rivalry with Novak pushed Stan to play so damn good against the serb.

While young guys are interesting too it takes some time to actually feel for them and cheer I guess. I did get that feeling in last USO cheering for Medvedev and I was also cheering for Tsitsipas in AO and RG this year.

We still got at least one great match participating big 3 in last 3 years in slams. Fedal AO17, Djodal W18, Fedovic W19. Following that we should get at least 1 match next year and hopefully a good one. It's not too much to ask, but there will probably be more of the big3 clashing against next gen. I am okay with that too.
 
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Moxie

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They are not Bozos. Berdych is Pennywise. Tsonga is Chocolat, Nishikori is Kuidaore Taro and Raonic is a tall version of Krusty.

Only racist people like you to think that all clowns are the same. You.... makeaka.
Funny how a poster who thinks nothing of hurling insults suddenly gets a bit delicate at some being called "bozos," when "clown" gets thrown around all the time around these parts. Injuries felled some of the Lost Gen, like Kei and Milos, but it's not like they were destined to be powerhouses, otherwise. The real bozo is Dimitrov, of that group...and you forgot him!
 

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The real bozo is Dimitrov, of that group...and you forgot him!

I ran down El Dudes' original list, and he did not include Dimitrov. But he is right, Dimitrov is not a Bozo. He is an "entertainer". :)


Now, joking aside I am aware that El Dude knows quite well that he is speaking in relative terms, but even if I did not miss the chance to make a joke, I cannot help but connect with Ricardo's post. All those guys play marvelously well and I envy them to my gut. I know they are professionals, but still. Tennis is a fantastic sport, I really wanted to be better at it: every now and then, when I connect a beautiful shot I feel extremely proud, and those guys do that routinely. I do feel that we are being borderline idiotic when we dismiss even ATP 500's. Come on, I even do watch Challenger matches sometimes, and those guys are damn good. This elite or nothing approach only separates us from the real sport. Of course the big boys are better as a package, but there is a lot of good tennis elsewhere. You get the backhand of a Lajovic, the forehand a Santiago Giraldo (check on youtube and be amazed), the touch of a Cuevas... that's pretty good tennis that at some point nobody else can do better. Tennis is all that. The greatness of the big three is precisely that they can stay on top of all those guys, all the time. But if you discredit the field, you are discrediting the big three by extension. And they can be beaten, they are indeed beaten, because some times someone else is simply better. Why? Because the sport itself is bigger than the big three. The sport is the big one. So, yeah, they are not Bozos. It is good that someone reminds us of that once in a while.
 

Moxie

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I ran down El Dudes' original list, and he did not include Dimitrov. But he is right, Dimitrov is not a Bozo. He is an "entertainer". :)


Now, joking aside I am aware that El Dude knows quite well that he is speaking in relative terms, but even if I did not miss the chance to make a joke, I cannot help but connect with Ricardo's post. All those guys play marvelously well and I envy them to my gut. I know they are professionals, but still. Tennis is a fantastic sport, I really wanted to be better at it: every now and then, when I connect a beautiful shot I feel extremely proud, and those guys do that routinely. I do feel that we are being borderline idiotic when we dismiss even ATP 500's. Come on, I even do watch Challenger matches sometimes, and those guys are damn good. This elite or nothing approach only separates us from the real sport. Of course the big boys are better as a package, but there is a lot of good tennis elsewhere. You get the backhand of a Lajovic, the forehand a Santiago Giraldo (check on youtube and be amazed), the touch of a Cuevas... that's pretty good tennis that at some point nobody else can do better. Tennis is all that. The greatness of the big three is precisely that they can stay on top of all those guys, all the time. But if you discredit the field, you are discrediting the big three by extension. And they can be beaten, they are indeed beaten, because some times someone else is simply better. Why? Because the sport itself is bigger than the big three. The sport is the big one. So, yeah, they are not Bozos. It is good that someone reminds us of that once in a while.
Fair enough, and I have been one to complain about them being called Clowns. So much talent out there. Even the big guns talk about the margins being slim. That's why we do get upsets. And then folks talk about people being beaten by "nobodies." Clearly it's not that simple and we tend to reduce it to broad-strokes and dismiss the fine points.