2019 Men’s Wimbledon SF: Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal

[lob]

And he better be ready from the first ball and no pussy returning. Return aggressively and take everything early, wittle Walphy and his wittle knees don't like that.

Roger can do whatever he wants, Nadal doesn't lose matches like this to Roger. Roger winning this will be a MASSIVE upset. A bigger upset than 2017 AO is not going to happen. Not on this surface. That AO surface was very fast and Roger started swinging freely in set 5 after 6 months off tour.

I am not even expecting to see good tennis. I can see Roger choking as I write this.

 

[Federberg]

Roger can do whatever he wants, Nadal doesn't lose matches like this to Roger. Roger winning this will be a MASSIVE upset. A bigger upset than 2017 AO is not going to happen. Not on this surface. That AO surface was very fast and Roger started swinging freely in set 5 after 6 months off tour.

I am not even expecting to see good tennis. I can see Roger choking as I write this.

I have no conviction about who is going to win this match for 2 reasons, (1) I need to see if Rafa beating Roger at RG impacts either of their mentalities (2) I don't particularly like Roger's form at this tournament so far.....

But your focus on the AO17 final is way off base. Roger played Rafa on much slower courts through out 2017 and it got progressively easier. It's not clear to me that court speed off clay matters so much. Can Roger continue taking his backhands early? Can he continue to attack with pace into Rafa's forehand? Has Rafa's backhand improvement negated some of matchup issues that started to plague Rafa against Roger? These are all unknowns. The only known is that the implication that it was a faster surface that led to a 5 - 0 streak is patently incorrect

 

[DarthFed]

I wouldn't worry about his forehand on grass. I think he typically has one mindset with it, especially vs. Nadal. Executing is a different issue but I wouldn't worry about his approach if I were a Fed fan.

I worry about his forehand everywhere, it is often quite pedestrian these days. I'm more worried about ROS anyways, it's the reason I would give him next to no chance vs Novak and it could be a big factor in losing him the match vs a decent serving Nadal. This is usually the time where his ROS is especially awful at Wimbledon.

 

[isabelle]

Manacor's bull in 4 I guess

 

[atttomole]

Anyone else NOT feeling super excited about this match? To me it doesn't have the same feel of the past.
For one, it seems to be for second place. Based on whatever I've seen from the big 3, I cannot see any of the 3 Semi-Finalists being able to beat Djokovic. So unless a minor miracle happens, Novak will be hoisting the silverware this Sunday in line with his ranking.

So Fedal #40 seems likely for the academic significance of h2h stats since for either Fed or Nadal the only thing that matters is the title. I also wonder what a potential demolition of RBA by Novak will do to the 2nd Fedal SF. Will that take the air out of the match, since both men know what's awaiting them? It has to have a psychological effect.

Anyway, coming to the match - very close to call. One of them will win in 4. Both seem to old to maintain the intensity for 5 sets. Even Nadal agrees that even though he's improved his game, he is still not as good as before:

Nadal: "Of course I'm serving better. Of course I'm hitting the backhand better. Maybe volleying better, slicing better—but even like this, I don't know if my level today will beat my level of years ago.
___________

It might come down to Nadal's serve. Rafa didn't serve well in set 1 against Querrey and was lucky not to get broken twice and to lose the set. Obviously, against Fed/Novak, he would HAVE lost that set. And then it would have been a different match.

Against Novak in Wimb 2018 SF, Nadal had the same problem of just being under pressure on serve ALL the time. In each of his matches at Wimbledon 2019, he's broken early and won the 1st set. That has enabled him to open his shoulders and relax for the remainder of the match and play better. What happens when Rafa gets broken and proceeds to lose set 1? Does he go into a shell like he did in AO 2019?

We know Fed will serve well. The match would really hinge on how well Nadal serves and to what extent Fed can pressure the Spaniard's serve.

I'm going to go with Nadal in 4. Just because. But it easily could be Fed in 4 as well. May the best player (on that day) win.

While I agree with a lot of what is in the post, I disagree that both of them are too old to handle 5 sets. Nadal can handle 5 sets more than anyone else. He could be on par with Djokovic. Federer on the other hand is most likely to lose if it goes to 5, because the points could be long. If Nadal can make points longer, Federer will be running on fumes in no time. That means Roger has to play shot points to enhance his chances of winning. Also, people seem to forget that Roger is almost 5 years older than Rafa.

 

[Carol]

My question is until when these guys will continue winning, where are the youngest ones? B-)

 

[Bonaca]

Anyone else NOT feeling super excited about this match? To me it doesn't have the same feel of the past.
For one, it seems to be for second place. Based on whatever I've seen from the big 3, I cannot see any of the 3 Semi-Finalists being able to beat Djokovic. So unless a minor miracle happens, Novak will be hoisting the silverware this Sunday in line with his ranking.

So Fedal #40 seems likely for the academic significance of h2h stats since for either Fed or Nadal the only thing that matters is the title. I also wonder what a potential demolition of RBA by Novak will do to the 2nd Fedal SF. Will that take the air out of the match, since both men know what's awaiting them? It has to have a psychological effect.

Anyway, coming to the match - very close to call. One of them will win in 4. Both seem to old to maintain the intensity for 5 sets. Even Nadal agrees that even though he's improved his game, he is still not as good as before:

Nadal: "Of course I'm serving better. Of course I'm hitting the backhand better. Maybe volleying better, slicing better—but even like this, I don't know if my level today will beat my level of years ago.
___________

It might come down to Nadal's serve. Rafa didn't serve well in set 1 against Querrey and was lucky not to get broken twice and to lose the set. Obviously, against Fed/Novak, he would HAVE lost that set. And then it would have been a different match.

Against Novak in Wimb 2018 SF, Nadal had the same problem of just being under pressure on serve ALL the time. In each of his matches at Wimbledon 2019, he's broken early and won the 1st set. That has enabled him to open his shoulders and relax for the remainder of the match and play better. What happens when Rafa gets broken and proceeds to lose set 1? Does he go into a shell like he did in AO 2019?

We know Fed will serve well. The match would really hinge on how well Nadal serves and to what extent Fed can pressure the Spaniard's serve.

I'm going to go with Nadal in 4. Just because. But it easily could be Fed in 4 as well. May the best player (on that day) win.

Nice post. But you are exaggerating about Novak and this second place thing. He will have a tough SF against Bautista and could surely lose to Fed or Bull.
Don’t get me wrong, I strongly hope you are right!

 

[Hamidreza Roohian]

Fedal has descended upon us at the best of times! Two humble great athletes with totally different styles and personalities. Two loveable human beings and the best athletes. Just need to enjoy and be thankful for what we are witnessing. I believe Roger still has the edge because of the low bounce. Read if you would.
https://us.blastingnews.com/opinion/2019/07/federers-solution-to-nadal-challenge-in-wimbledon-the-surface-makes-a-difference-002944359.html

 

[imjimmy]

Djokovic would be the clear favorite but neither guy beating him constitutes a minor miracle.

Maybe that was a little bit dramatic, but I really feel Djokovic is a very very strong favorite. Also I don't really see how Federer can beat him - we've seen the story so many times before when Fed was actually playing better than he is now. Novak is just too solid from the back. He is not missing at all. Playing well within himself but still able to embarrass players such as Goffin. You get a sense that he can raise his level easily. He hasn't seemed to have lost the speed and explosiveness that Fedal have.

Even Nadal would be the underdog vs Djokovic, because of the matchup and in part what happen at AO 2019 earlier this year. Overall, Novak has been unbeatable for the past 12 months at the slam level, except on clay, and even there he went 5 sets and was within a few pts of winning.

Now I don't buy for a second that Nadal and Federer are playing better than ever, and it's simplistic to look at certain improved aspects in their games (even if they make them more well rounded) and conclude that they're better now. Nevertheless, I don't think Nadal's conclusion was him outright implying that he's not as good as before.

Sorry I didn't post the whole thing. I just got lazy, and took out one sentence. I do understand what you're saying, but I think Rafa also left some level of ambiguity because that reporter was asking him what he thought Federer improved.

My overall point was that both of these guys USED to be far better in the past. In 2008, both were very good and on top of their game. Even Federer was - despite all the excuses (not least mono after effects) that his fans try to give. I believe that both of them are significantly inferior as they have aged, so we can't expect a similar level of tennis or that much of drama/ quality in the SF.

In that sense, they are playing second fiddle to Djokovic who seems to be in ascendancy and looking to dominate the tour for the foreseeable future. When Fedal matches were special, they were #1 and #2 and fighting for the slam titles. But they are NOT anymore..

 

[Carol]

I don't remember to see so much propaganda when they played against in this last RG, what's the difference?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is my objective assessment of the impending Fedal XL. The notion that this is grass and so Fed has huge advantage is mistaken. This is probably going to be a tough fight. I believe the winner will be determined by one factor. If the number of points determined by short rallies ( up to 4 shots) and by medium rallies (up to 9 shots) is more than 80%, Fed will win easily. If it is more than 66%, Fed will win. If it is less than 66%, than Fed will lose. IMO, winning this match depends on Fed refusing to indulge in lengthy baseline rallies with Ralph. If that happens, Ralph will win.

Now, comes the difficult part viz., judging how many points will be determined by short and medium rallies. This is subjective. But, I am going to go with Roger in 4. Of course, I could be wrong in this prediction. But, I strongly believe in my prediction mentioned in the previous paragraph.

I am glad this is the second match (as that would ensure that I watch the match fully from beginning to end).

 

[MikeOne]

Interesting match. Roger has had success against Nadal in recent years and we can sort of put at asterisk to RG semis due to those blustering conditions which favor Nadal's game.

Anything can happen but i think Nadal is more battle tested and a bit more in form. Nadal has been unusually confident on this surface this year, reminiscent of how he looked in 2008 before finals. That Kyrgios match was a tough one, Kyrgios couldn't beaten anyone playing like that. Nadal has faced big servers and dangerous players so it's good warm up for Fed's attacking game.

Federer has looked good too just doesn't seem to be as in form as Nadal. Both at their peak, Federer has the advantage on grass but i'm seeing Nadal playing his A+ game and Fed his A- game, i'm favoring Nadal on this one but any result wouldn't surprise me.

For fed fans, you underestimate Nadal's game on grass tremendously. Pls note, Nadal was only one to take a set off Fed in 2006 Wimbledon, stretched Fed to 5 sets in 07 Wimbledon and beat him in 08 finals. He actually CAN beat Federer, even Fed playing well...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Wow, contrary to my expectation, here are the odds on this match by Bookies.

Ralph 3/4 ~ 57%
Roger 5/4 ~ 43%

Bookies are making Ralph as the favorite despite this being grass.

 

[Moxie]

I don't remember to see so much propaganda when they played against in this last RG, what's the difference?

I don't know...I thought that thread got pretty long. But Fedfans didn't have much more than guarded hope that Roger could win that one. Main difference is probably that Nadal is within 2 of tying Roger's Majors haul now, and they insist that this Wimbledon is "do or die." One reason the grass gets discussed so much.

 

[Moxie]

Wow, contrary to my expectation, here are the odds on this match by Bookies.

Ralph 3/4 ~ 57%
Roger 5/4 ~ 43%

Bookies are making Ralph as the favorite despite this being grass.

The commentators I heard on ESPN both called it close within a few points of probability, and split decision. (Gilbert gave Rafa a slight edge, Goodall gave Fed the slight edge. Not really a surprise where they line up.) Rafa does look the sharper in general to date, but Roger looked great v. Kei, once he got past that first set. (What I saw...I was mainly watching Nadal.) I think it's tight. What do those bookies know?

 

[mrzz]

What do those bookies know?

They know that most will bet on Nadal so they need to cover their bases.

 

[DarthFed]

Interesting match. Roger has had success against Nadal in recent years and we can sort of put at asterisk to RG semis due to those blustering conditions which favor Nadal's game.

Anything can happen but i think Nadal is more battle tested and a bit more in form. Nadal has been unusually confident on this surface this year, reminiscent of how he looked in 2008 before finals. That Kyrgios match was a tough one, Kyrgios couldn't beaten anyone playing like that. Nadal has faced big servers and dangerous players so it's good warm up for Fed's attacking game.

Federer has looked good too just doesn't seem to be as in form as Nadal. Both at their peak, Federer has the advantage on grass but i'm seeing Nadal playing his A+ game and Fed his A- game, i'm favoring Nadal on this one but any result wouldn't surprise me.

For fed fans, you underestimate Nadal's game on grass tremendously. Pls note, Nadal was only one to take a set off Fed in 2006 Wimbledon, stretched Fed to 5 sets in 07 Wimbledon and beat him in 08 finals. He actually CAN beat Federer, even Fed playing well...

No one underestimates his game on this "grass" which of course on the other hand has played a big part in Roger doing pretty poorly at Wimbledon over the past 10+ years.

 

[Moxie]

No one underestimates his game on this "grass" which of course on the other hand has played a big part in Roger doing pretty poorly at Wimbledon over the past 10+ years.

Ahem, actually, a lot of folks underestimate/have underestimated his game on grass. (Put it in quotation marks, if you must.) It seems you've come around a bit lately, to avoid being completely ridiculous.

 

[britbox]

Passing Roger a ladder,I always want a even playing field...............

Are you staying up for it?

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Are you staying up for it?

I am on night shift at the hospital....I am trying to find someone that will swap with me,sad to say I do not work with tennis addicts I will be up for the women's final.