2019 Men’s Wimbledon SF: Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal

[brokenshoelace]

He definitely took one against Haase while trailing 2 sets to 1

Look, I appreciate the faux confidence, but adding "definitely" to convey it when it comes to a statement that is factually inaccurate won't make it any more true. He never took a MTO in that match. Here's a detailed report which never mentions it:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/t...l-survives-scare-to-dispatch-Robin-Haase.html

Meanwhile, literally every article about the Petzschner match brings up the MTO, further proving that the one against Haase is simply a part of your salty, biased imagination.

EDIT: Here is the "as it happened" article of Nadal vs. Haase match.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/8759409.stm

The internet is a beautiful place.

As far as I'm concerned he only legitimately won it once, in 2008. He didn't actually cheat that year at least.

This is literally, LITERALLY, the stupidest thing I've ever read here, and that's saying something considering I've had to deal with Anti-Pusher, Cali, Ricardo, etc...

Like, I'm not saying that to be provocative, this is incredibly stupid. You're literally saying one title was not legitimate based on two iffy MTOs...one of which never took place, and the other took place in the 3rd round. I mean...Jesus, dude. Maybe the internet is not so beautiful after all.

 

[brokenshoelace]

And there are quotes last year where he said the hot dry conditions made it tough to return big serves because of the higher and quicker bounce off the court. And in prior posts you've flat out said he has benefitted from the grass at Wimbledon being slower. That was a statement on his overall game, not just return.

It was a statement of how the slowing down of grass neutralized things vs. big servers and helped the best baseliners dominate, and Roger was the best baseliner of his era. In literally the same post, I said that on the other hand, this hurt him against Nadal and Djokovic. So what's your issue exactly?

 

[Carol]

Maybe Querrey watched this vid before....

 

[Ricardo]

Look, I appreciate the faux confidence, but adding "definitely" to convey it when it comes to a statement that is factually inaccurate won't make it any more true. He never took a MTO in that match. Here's a detailed report which never mentions it:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/t...l-survives-scare-to-dispatch-Robin-Haase.html

Meanwhile, literally every article about the Petzschner match brings up the MTO, further proving that the one against Haase is simply a part of your salty, biased imagination.

EDIT: Here is the "as it happened" article of Nadal vs. Haase match.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/8759409.stm

The internet is a beautiful place.



This is literally, LITERALLY, the stupidest thing I've ever read here, and that's saying something considering I've had to deal with Anti-Pusher, Cali, Ricardo, etc...

Like, I'm not saying that to be provocative, this is incredibly stupid. You're literally saying one title was not legitimate based on two iffy MTOs...one of which never took place, and the other took place in the 3rd round. I mean...Jesus, dude. Maybe the internet is not so beautiful after all.

come on lets get real, you've definitely surpassed us all here...…...when it comes to being stupid.

and I know modesty isn't your trait.

 

[Carol]

And then he tried to advise Nadal....lol. Guys, you should have better sense of humor, you seem to be very nervous

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

centre court is low bouncing, it is pretty clear, the spongy surface is now becoming harder (giggity).

the weather has been strange lately, first 3 weeks of june were cold and wet..some days the max temp in southern england was below 10c 50f,,which is mental, plus a lack of sun. since around june 25th this changed to dry and mainly sunny weather..

i believe allot of moisture was in the subsoil after all the poor weather so even tho the tourney has been dry/sunny the moisture helped keep the courts soft,,but they are changing abit..

also it has been very humid, this is changing and a north airflow with bring less humid air but still warmish and sunny,

so expect the ace count to rise at least...so...yeah..tennis n stuff innit.

 

[Moxie]

Just back from a party and already 3 pages to read back on this one. I guess I should be grateful it's only 3. LOL.

 

[Moxie]

Thank you very much.

For more clarification, it means when Roger rushes at the net when the server is in his motion, so he takes the serve on the rise and really early.

 

[tented]

Just back from a party and already 3 pages to read back on this one. I guess I should be grateful it's only 3. LOL.

I suspect we’ll break whatever the record is for most posts before the first point is played.

 

[imjimmy]

Anyone else NOT feeling super excited about this match? To me it doesn't have the same feel of the past.
For one, it seems to be for second place. Based on whatever I've seen from the big 3, I cannot see any of the 3 Semi-Finalists being able to beat Djokovic. So unless a minor miracle happens, Novak will be hoisting the silverware this Sunday in line with his ranking.

So Fedal #40 seems likely for the academic significance of h2h stats since for either Fed or Nadal the only thing that matters is the title. I also wonder what a potential demolition of RBA by Novak will do to the 2nd Fedal SF. Will that take the air out of the match, since both men know what's awaiting them? It has to have a psychological effect.

Anyway, coming to the match - very close to call. One of them will win in 4. Both seem to old to maintain the intensity for 5 sets. Even Nadal agrees that even though he's improved his game, he is still not as good as before:

Nadal: "Of course I'm serving better. Of course I'm hitting the backhand better. Maybe volleying better, slicing better—but even like this, I don't know if my level today will beat my level of years ago.
___________

It might come down to Nadal's serve. Rafa didn't serve well in set 1 against Querrey and was lucky not to get broken twice and to lose the set. Obviously, against Fed/Novak, he would HAVE lost that set. And then it would have been a different match.

Against Novak in Wimb 2018 SF, Nadal had the same problem of just being under pressure on serve ALL the time. In each of his matches at Wimbledon 2019, he's broken early and won the 1st set. That has enabled him to open his shoulders and relax for the remainder of the match and play better. What happens when Rafa gets broken and proceeds to lose set 1? Does he go into a shell like he did in AO 2019?

We know Fed will serve well. The match would really hinge on how well Nadal serves and to what extent Fed can pressure the Spaniard's serve.

I'm going to go with Nadal in 4. Just because. But it easily could be Fed in 4 as well. May the best player (on that day) win.

 

[Moxie]

I suspect we’ll break whatever the record is for most posts before the first point is played.

We could make side-book on how many pages before first ball and how many times the surface is disparaged before first ball. (On this thread only, because to go back would be Herculean.)

The bookies have weighed in:

Fewer than 10 pages: 25%
More than 15 pages: Even odds.

Fewer than 25 references to the surface: -01.
More than 25 references to the surface: ∞

 

[Moxie]

Anyone else NOT feeling super excited about this match? To me it doesn't have the same feel of the past.
For one, it seems to be for second place. Based on whatever I've seen from the big 3, I cannot see any of the 3 Semi-Finalists being able to beat Djokovic. So unless a minor miracle happens, Novak will be hoisting the silverware this Sunday in line with his ranking.

So Fedal #40 seems likely for the academic significance of h2h stats since for either Fed or Nadal the only thing that matters is the title. I also wonder what a potential demolition of RBA by Novak will do to the 2nd Fedal SF. Will that take the air out of the match, since both men know what's awaiting them? It has to have a psychological effect.

Anyway, coming to the match - very close to call. One of them will win in 4. Both seem to old to maintain the intensity for 5 sets. Even Nadal agrees that even though he's improved his game, he is still not as good as before:

Nadal: "Of course I'm serving better. Of course I'm hitting the backhand better. Maybe volleying better, slicing better—but even like this, I don't know if my level today will beat my level of years ago.
___________

It might come down to Nadal's serve. Rafa didn't serve well in set 1 against Querrey and was lucky not to get broken twice and to lose the set. Obviously, against Fed/Novak, he would HAVE lost that set. And then it would have been a different match.

Against Novak in Wimb 2018 SF, Nadal had the same problem of just being under pressure on serve ALL the time. In each of his matches at Wimbledon, he's broken early and won the 1st set. That has enabled him to open his shoulders and relax for the remainder of the match and play better. What happens when Rafa gets broken and proceeds to lose set 1? Does he go into a shell like he did in AO 2019?

We know Fed will serve well. The match would really hinge on how well Nadal serves and to what extent Fed can pressure the Spaniard's serve.

I'm going to go with Nadal in 4. Just because. But it easily could be Fed in 4 as well. May the best player (on that day) win.

The sad truth is that, yes, it feels like they're going to knock each other out for the privilege of getting beaten by Djoker in the final. Maybe at least RBA can hold off Djokovic long enough to wear him out and make it a fair fight on Sunday.

 

[Moxie]

And so we'll have it. 2008 final to the 2019 semifinal. I was young. But even I knew back then that tennis players were done by 32. Agassi was the exception. Not the rule. If you had said to me in 2008 that Roger and Rafa would play again in 2019 at Wimbledon, in the semifinal no less, I would have laughed in your face. Hard. Like, for 10 minutes. But here it is.

Fedal XL.

This is actually just the second time all three of the big 3 have made the semis. I think. Going back to 2007. Before Djokovic had even won a slam or made the US Open final that year. And he had to retire against Rafa in the semis.

No Fed last year. No Fed in 2010 or 2011. No Rafa at the 2009 event and then didn't even make the quarters from 2012 to 2017 (didn't even play in 2016). Djokovic didn't make it in 2008. No Djokovic in 2016.

Now. The big thing. I'd bet you Wimbledon will put Djokovic/RBA on court first on Thursday. So both will know for a fact they have to play Djokovic by the time they play each other. But. If Djokovic breaks his leg and RBA goes through to the final, they'll both know that they are playing for the title. Either way. I love Fed. 2017 AO comeback against Rafa was huge and great. He's beaten him on hard courts in best of 3 sets since then. But that AO match is the only best of 5 setter they've played that Fed could have won since the 2014 AO that Rafa won in straights and the 2012 AO that Rafa won in 4 sets. Obviously the RG match last month is irrelevant. The 3 straight sets wins over Rafa on hard courts over the last couple years says a lot. But Rafa will be ready. Rafa has looked great. And Rafa is probably fresher than Fed simply because of his age. So I'm not big on Fed's chances come Thursday. I think we officially have to say he's the underdog. But. He's looked great all week. He is feeling it. Obviously he's got close to a 50/50 chance of winning it. He'll need his serve all day long. He'll need his forehand. And he'll need to be crackin on that backhand. His movement will have to be near perfect. But Rafa will also need his serve and forehand and the movement. I just trust that Rafa will have those more than I do Fed. Not really on the serve. But on the forehand and movement, at this point, Rafa should have the edge.

We know all this though. It'll come down to the big points. To tactics. And to the mental fortitude. Rafa nearly beating Novak last year should strike even more fear into Fed's heart. But he also knows that he'll play an entirely different game than Novak did last year. And it changes everything. I'm not counting Fed out at any point. Maybe if he goes down 2 sets to love. But if he wins one of the first two sets and even if it goes 5, I like his chances. But Rafa is the favorite. I hate to admit it. But at this point, he has to be at least the slight favorite.

And then of course there will likely be Djokovic waiting in the wings for Sunday. Neither is guaranteed to come out of this tournament a slam richer.


EDIT: Friday. Sorry. I keep forgetting today is Wednesday.

I don't think the RG match of just a few weeks ago is irrelevant. Also, I question that Roger has looking unblinking "great" across his matches. Dropped his first set of the tournament to Lloyd George, and one to Kei yesterday. (OK, Kei is Kei.) But the BH is looking vulnerable, which is not great v Nadal, and the serve is breakable.

 

[imjimmy]

The sad truth is that, yes, it feels like they're going to knock each other out for the privilege of getting beaten by Djoker in the final. Maybe at least RBA can hold off Djokovic long enough to wear him out and make it a fair fight on Sunday.

Exactly. We are used to Fed/Nadal fighting for the trophies and the slam titles. But the truth is that this match is just a gateway to another insurmountable mountain by the name of Djokovic.

 

[Moxie]

Exactly. We are used to Fed/Nadal fighting for the trophies and the slam titles. But the truth is that this match is just a gateway to another insurmountable mountain by the name of Djokovic.

This I think is just a bit too much hyperbole, given the way Djokovic has been playing, and the way his draw opened up. I get why @Federberg has complained about the lack of fight from the undercards. And even the commies have been unusually nasty in their assessment of the flaccidness from the young guard. Djokovic didn't have the hardest route, but neither did he have the easiest, when the draw came out. Djokovic could have faced FAA, Medvedev and Khachanov, all of whom seemed at least worthy opposition. Instead he got Humbert, Goffin, and now faces RBA, who, at 31, is the youngest man left in the draw. While I agree he raised his level v. Goffin to look more like his best self, he hasn't really been asked to play great tennis, so I disagree that he's been an insurmountable force. If either of Nadal or Federer gets through quickly in their SF on Friday, I still think Novak is pickable. But if they bloody each other up, neither will be fit to take him out on Sunday.

 

[imjimmy]

This I think is just a bit too much hyperbole, given the way Djokovic has been playing, and the way his draw opened up. I get why @Federberg has complained about the lack of fight from the undercards. And even the commies have been unusually nasty in their assessment of the flaccidness from the young guard. Djokovic didn't have the hardest route, but neither did he have the easiest, when the draw came out. Djokovic could have faced FAA, Medvedev and Khachanov, all of whom seemed at least worthy opposition. Instead he got Humbert, Goffin, and now faces RBA, who, at 31, is the youngest man left in the draw. While I agree he raised his level v. Goffin to look more like his best self, he hasn't really been asked to play great tennis, so I disagree that he's been an insurmountable force. If either of Nadal or Federer gets through quickly in their SF on Friday, I still think Novak is pickable. But if they bloody each other up, neither will be fit to take him out on Sunday.

I agree with your overall post. However, I do think you're underrating Djokovic a little here. He's won 3 of the last 4 slams (with finals in straight sets in each of those slams) and was a few pts away from another final in RG. Against Goffin, Novak got into his best form and was machine like. And he has a history of ho-hum performances before the final weekend of the slam. In AO 19 it wasn't until the SF that he turned up his game, so I expect the same in Wimbledon.

I think for Fedal, mental tiredness will be more of an issue than the physical. They both get into the SF with relatively short matches. Even if the SF is 5 sets (which I doubt), this is grass, it won't be a 5 hour match. So they should be able to recover with a rest day. The problem is that given how the court is playing, Djokovic just has better defense, speed and explosiveness at this point in his career - as Fedal get older. Plus for Fedal it is hard to win 2 EPIC matches in row. The law of averages does catchup.

All that being said, I feel that Nadal will potentially be more competitive against Novak in the final, than Fed would be. We've seen the Fed-Novak script in slams all too often and the matches haven't been especially close. A potential Fed-Novak final might be even more one-sided than before given the current form of both players.

 

[monfed]

The one thing that is annoying is that Federer has very little margin for error when he plays Nadull on high bouncing surfaces. It's like he has to play a perfect match or he's out while dull can just sit back and keep pounding away Fed's BH. The rallies are so heavily stacked against Federer. The only place where Fed has more room to maneuver is on fast indoor HC or just a fast HC or even on Halle type grass where Fed can hit through his BH better.

Due to this Federer is under far more pressure than dull to win the 1st set. I can't see Fed coming back into the match if he drops the first set. He must do everything in his power to win the first and third cause he is going to drop a set and that set better be the 2nd.

If Fed drops the first set then he must win the next two. It's really sickening that there isn't a single slam left where Fed is so much more superior than Nadal on the surface that no matter what dull does it won't be enough, kindof like how it's for Fed at RG. If the grass was zippy with uneven low bounce then Fed would've destroyed this moonballer.

 

[tented]

Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal spark insane ticket price hike at Wimbledon

 

[rafanoy1992]

We could make side-book on how many pages before first ball and how many times the surface is disparaged before first ball. (On this thread only, because to go back would be Herculean.)

The bookies have weighed in:

Fewer than 10 pages: 25%
More than 15 pages: Even odds.

Fewer than 25 references to the surface: -01.
More than 25 references to the surface: ∞

I will start now, Moxie! I do not think Federer will win because grass is the new clay and the ball is bouncing high so that means Nadal will eat Federer's backhand alive all match long!

By the way, this is my attempted humor or sarcasm and the bets on how many times the surface is disparaged

 

[Horsa]

For more clarification, it means when Roger rushes at the net when the server is in his motion, so he takes the serve on the rise and really early.

Thank you very much.