2019 Men’s Wimbledon SF: Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal

[brokenshoelace]

Anyone else NOT feeling super excited about this match? To me it doesn't have the same feel of the past.
For one, it seems to be for second place. Based on whatever I've seen from the big 3, I cannot see any of the 3 Semi-Finalists being able to beat Djokovic. So unless a minor miracle happens, Novak will be hoisting the silverware this Sunday in line with his ranking.

So Fedal #40 seems likely for the academic significance of h2h stats since for either Fed or Nadal the only thing that matters is the title. I also wonder what a potential demolition of RBA by Novak will do to the 2nd Fedal SF. Will that take the air out of the match, since both men know what's awaiting them? It has to have a psychological effect.

Anyway, coming to the match - very close to call. One of them will win in 4. Both seem to old to maintain the intensity for 5 sets. Even Nadal agrees that even though he's improved his game, he is still not as good as before:

Nadal: "Of course I'm serving better. Of course I'm hitting the backhand better. Maybe volleying better, slicing better—but even like this, I don't know if my level today will beat my level of years ago.
___________

It might come down to Nadal's serve. Rafa didn't serve well in set 1 against Querrey and was lucky not to get broken twice and to lose the set. Obviously, against Fed/Novak, he would HAVE lost that set. And then it would have been a different match.

Against Novak in Wimb 2018 SF, Nadal had the same problem of just being under pressure on serve ALL the time. In each of his matches at Wimbledon 2019, he's broken early and won the 1st set. That has enabled him to open his shoulders and relax for the remainder of the match and play better. What happens when Rafa gets broken and proceeds to lose set 1? Does he go into a shell like he did in AO 2019?

We know Fed will serve well. The match would really hinge on how well Nadal serves and to what extent Fed can pressure the Spaniard's serve.

I'm going to go with Nadal in 4. Just because. But it easily could be Fed in 4 as well. May the best player (on that day) win.

Djokovic would be the clear favorite but neither guy beating him constitutes a minor miracle.

The Nadal quote is interesting but a bit misleading without the question. Nadal was asked how he and Roger managed to improve and play better than ever at their respective ages. Nadal disagreed with the notion that they are playing better than before. He stated that they improved certain aspects of their games because they had to adapt to losing other aspects. He gave an example of improved serve as a means to compensate for his inability to run like he used to, and concluded with the quote you highlighted above. Now I don't buy for a second that Nadal and Federer are playing better than ever, and it's simplistic to look at certain improved aspects in their games (even if they make them more well rounded) and conclude that they're better now. Nevertheless, I don't think Nadal's conclusion was him outright implying that he's not as good as before.

 

[tented]

I watched this the other day to remind myself what he was like that long ago. Roger lost a handful of matches that whole year.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I will start now, Moxie! I do not think Federer will win because grass is the new clay and the ball is bouncing high so that means Nadal will eat Federer's backhand alive all match long!

By the way, this is my attempted humor or sarcasm and the bets on how many times the surface is disparaged

Passing Roger a ladder,I always want a even playing field...............

 

[tented]

Highlights of their 2006 final to give a perspective on their evolution.

 

[tented]

Wimbledon posted these themselves, so the quality is better than a lot of tennis videos on YouTube.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Here's my real analysis about the match:

I am with imjimmy here that it will be either Nadal in 4 sets or Federer in 4 sets. (I pick Nadal of course). If it goes into 5th set, then it is a toss up and defends on how the match is going in the first 4 sets.

In terms of current form and mental focus, Nadal has the edge right now. That match against Kyrgios allowed him to have a razor sharped focus for the rest of the tournament. In the last two matches, you could see in Nadal's face that he will not mess around like he did last year.

While Nadal has the edge on both form and mental focus, Wimbledon is still Federer's best slam and he knows this will be an ideal opportunity to fend off Nadal from reaching his GS count. Here's a quick stat about Federer when playing at a Wimbledon semifinal match:

11 wins - 1 loss (match)
35 sets won and 3 sets lost (the three loss sets were from 1 match).

So Federer is harder to beat in the semifinals than in the finals if we are just looking at the stats.

There are two things that Federer has to do really well if he wants to win this match: His first serve and backhand. If Federer can not pressure Nadal using his first serve, then Nadal will eat him up. In addition, Federer has to make sure he stays aggressive on his backhand side. Unfortunately for him, he has not find his backhand groove in this tournament yet so we will see if he can find it in this match. If not, yeah...we will know what will happen.

As for Nadal, his return of serve and backhand will be the keys to this match. He has returned well this week so far but Federer is probably the best clutch server in men's history so we will see if Nadal can make key returns on pressure moments. While Nadal's forehand to Federer's backhand will be Nadal's bread and butter shot, I think Nadal's crosscourt backhand will be a key in this match. If Nadal can hit deep crosscourt backhands to Federer's forehand, then I think it will be easier for Nadal to open up the court. Nadal can not be too predictable with his patterns and make Federer second guess his groundstrokes.

One more important note: It is more important for Federer to win the first set than for Nadal because if Federer loses the first set, then he will have to grind in order to win the match and he does not want to do that at this stage of his career especially if he knows Djokovic is waiting on the other side.

 

[tented]

I'm extremely sorry for interrupting your conversation but what does that abbreviation stand for, please?

Visual aid:

 

[tented]

Press conferences:

 

[Horsa]

Visual aid:

Thank you very much.

 

[Federberg]

Visual aid:

the bit with Jack Sock always makes me laugh!

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'm actually glad Roger toned it down. As impressive as it was (seriously, how many players can pull that off and get away with it?) , SABR always felt gimmicky to me, and a tad desperate.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I'm actually glad Roger toned it down. As impressive as it was (seriously, how many players can pull that off and get away with it?) , SABR always felt gimmicky to me, and a tad desperate.

He should do the underhand serve to throw off Nadal! (I am being sarcastic)

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'll say this about the match: form leading up to it doesn't matter. At this stage in their careers, when any two of the big 3 face one another, the match is its own entity.

If Roger has a great serving day, I think he'll win because he'll always have chances on Rafa's serve, on any surface, under any circumstances. One thing he's been managing to do well since 2017 is take time away from Nadal, which had previously been something he struggled with. If he does that on this surface, he wins, despite the "green clay" propaganda. But if he serves iffy and his backhand isn't great, then it turns into a completely different match where Nadal has time to find his rhythm and settle into rallies. His rally forehand on grass can be very annoying to deal with once he has time, despite the "Nadal sucks on grass" propaganda.

Leaning towards Federer but literally no outcome would surprise me except maybe a Nadal straight set win.

 

[brokenshoelace]

He should do the underhand serve to throw off Nadal! (I am being sarcastic)

It's an indicator of talent nowadays.

 

[Federberg]

I'm actually glad Roger toned it down. As impressive as it was (seriously, how many players can pull that off and get away with it?) , SABR always felt gimmicky to me, and a tad desperate.

I think it has a valid place in the arsenal, but to my mind it's something you bring out once every 3 or 4 matches, just to get in peoples heads

 

[Federberg]

I'll say this about the match: form leading up to it doesn't matter. At this stage in their careers, when any two of the big 3 face one another, the match is its own entity.

If Roger has a great serving day, I think he'll win because he'll always have chances on Rafa's serve, on any surface, under any circumstances. One thing he's been managing to do well since 2017 is take time away from Nadal, which had previously been something he struggled with. If he does that on this surface, he wins, despite the "green clay" propaganda. But if he serves iffy and his backhand isn't great, then it turns into a completely different match where Nadal has time to find his rhythm and settle into rallies. His rally forehand on grass can be very annoying to deal with once he has time, despite the "Nadal sucks on grass" propaganda.

Leaning towards Federer but literally no outcome would surprise me except maybe a Nadal straight set win.

this might surprise you, but I'm not really worried about Roger's backhand against Rafa. It's his forehand and serve to be concerned about. The reason I say that is that he will know with absolute certainty what he needs to do with his backhand. He MUST go over the ball, there is no choice. That actually makes things easier for him because then it becomes a matter of execution and these guys are so good that he'll almost certainly excel at it. The forehand and serve present him with options though. That's where the problems arise

 

[brokenshoelace]

I think it has a valid place in the arsenal, but to my mind it's something you bring out once every 3 or 4 matches, just to get in peoples heads

Yeah that's what I was aiming at. I don't even mind if he decided to do it on some break point vs. Nadal as a surprise tactic. But at the time, it was a big part of his return game and I'm not a fan of that. The best players will adapt to it and once the surprise aspect is gone, he would pay the price.

 

[brokenshoelace]

this might surprise you, but I'm not really worried about Roger's backhand against Rafa. It's his forehand and serve to be concerned about. The reason I say that is that he will know with absolute certainty what he needs to do with his backhand. He MUST go over the ball, there is no choice. That actually makes things easier for him because then it becomes a matter of execution and these guys are so good that he'll almost certainly excel at it. The forehand and serve present him with options though. That's where the problems arise

I wouldn't worry about his forehand on grass. I think he typically has one mindset with it, especially vs. Nadal. Executing is a different issue but I wouldn't worry about his approach if I were a Fed fan.

 

[mrzz]

I'm actually glad Roger toned it down. As impressive as it was (seriously, how many players can pull that off and get away with it?) , SABR always felt gimmicky to me, and a tad desperate.

It is a bit telling that he toned it down, because the rate of success was quite high. Surely higher than his AVG. ROS percentagem.

Maybe he agrees with your assesment. Wow, and you are not even a TV commentator!

 

[Federberg]

I wouldn't worry about his forehand on grass. I think he typically has one mindset with it, especially vs. Nadal. Executing is a different issue but I wouldn't worry about his approach if I were a Fed fan.

as a Fedfan I have to worry about his forehand. With the very top guys I honestly don't think execution is the issue, they can do this stuff automatically. It's clarity of purpose. I am convinced that Roger/Rafa/Novak are able to execute with near perfect reliability. What makes their execution look off is their conviction about what they are trying to do.