If we're getting into the US Open discussion, while obviously all of the big 3 seem to be in top form and would be the favorite in any match; all these young guns are much more likely to beat them on the hard courts, even in best of five, than at Wimbledon. They clearly struggled to get out of the first round this time around. But all of them have made their names on hard courts or clay anyways because those are the two main court types. We've see Zverev and Khachanov beat Djokovic on indoor hard courts at the end of last year. Thiem played Nadal tough and close (5 sets) in New York last year. Federer lost to friggin Millman. So he can definitely lose to a Thiem or Tsitsipas or Zverev. We've seen Zverev beat Fed in .... Canada? Shapovalov beating Nadal in Canada.
Then there's Wawrinka and Cilic and Nishikori. 2 US Open champs and a finalist there. All better on hard courts than the grass. And Nishikori looked great at Wimbledon.
If you want to just keep it to Djokovic and Nadal, I do give Djokovic the edge. But Nadal definitely knows how to beat Djokovic in New York. And as Nadal has gotten more aggressive with Moya in the camp, he has a great chance to beat Djokovic. But we've seen Nadal have knew problems in New York recently. So that's one thing to consider. Because you still gotta have both of them get to the final to play each other. Unless Fed can win Canada and Cincy and pass Nadal in the rankings. Well. I guess Nadal won Canada. So if Nadal just doesn't defend all of his points and Fed does defend his points from the two or can add, then he could make it a chance those two have to play in the semis. But I just think all 3 of these guys are going to be more vulnerable on the hard courts than they were here. Fed most of all. But even Djokovic. Yeah. He's the favorite until someone else surprises us or Nadal or Fed grind out a win over him. But everyone else on tour is better on hard courts than they are on grass. He'll have to face more seeds most likely. The draw should fall apart much less than it did here.
I'm just hoping it's not so sweltering like it was last year. That's still the only reason I think Fed lost to Millman. A serious humid heat wave in New York last year. Anyways. Should be a good US Open. Especially if Murray feels he's up to singles again. I mean. He won't be seeded so it'll be tough. And it could mean he gets an early date with a high seed. Which could be fun. But I just wanna see the guy be able to come back.
