2018 Wimbledon men’s SF: Djokovic v Nadal

[GameSetAndMath]

The only way for Djokovic to have won that match would have been for him to have won the 4th set on Friday night, leaving them at 4-4 and done due to darkness. Therefore, Roger and Novak would have come back on Saturday and played a full set.

Some folks (not me) suggesting that Roger should have tanked that match as opposed to Novak actually winning it. While I am not in favor of Roger tanking matches in single elimination tournaments, if he chooses to tank it does not make sense to tank after going to five sets and make Novak come back the next day. Just tank in straight sets. If you are afraid of getting caught, tank in four sets. Either way, Novak would not need to play on Saturday.

 

[Moxie]

Some folks (not me) suggesting that Roger should have tanked that match as opposed to Novak actually winning it. While I am not in favor of Roger tanking matches in single elimination tournaments, if he chooses to tank it does not make sense to tank after going to five sets and make Novak come back the next day. Just tank in straight sets. If you are afraid of getting caught, tank in four sets. Either way, Novak would not need to play on Saturday.

Wow, I can't believe you're still talking about Roger tanking and not the match as it was played. I really do find that line of thought shocking.

 

[DarthFed]

Your point is that Nadal had a better chance of beating either, right?

Not at all, my point is Nadal's chances vs Nole were significantly worse than vs Fed

 

[Moxie]

Not at all, my point is Nadal's chances vs Nole were significantly worse than vs Fed

Right. We all agree on that. But neither had a better than 40% chance, or less, of beating Nadal in the final. So had it been Djokovic, it was still far from a fait a complit that he would have beaten Nadal.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Right. We all agree on that. But neither had a better than 40% chance, or less, of beating Nadal in the final. So had it been Djokovic, it was still far from a fait a complit that he would have beaten Nadal.

Novak won four matches against Rafa in 2011 before RG including straight set wins on clay in Madrid and Rome finals . He also won two matches against Rafa after RG in 2011 which are GS finals. Novak did not lose a match to Rafa in entire 2011. Novak was on a tear in 2011. Anyone with a marginal experience in connecting dots would not find it difficult to imagine what would have happened if they met in RG 2011. Case closed.

 

[DarthFed]

You can't count the Wimbledon before the RG one, and that could have made a huge difference. But you do have to take into account how long it actually DID take Novak to win RG. It's a huge leap of faith to say he'd have won it that year.

Nadal's confidence heading into that Wimbledon final was higher than it would've been at RG. Nole was clearly playing at a way higher level in 2011 than any other year he played Nadal at RG except for maybe 2015. There really isn't much ground to stand on in saying Rafa would have been the favorite that match. Nole trashed him before RG and after it.

 

[Moxie]

Novak won four matches against Rafa in 2011 before RG including straight set wins on clay in Madrid and Rome finals . He also won two matches against Rafa after RG in 2011 which are GS finals. Novak did not lose a match to Rafa in entire 2011. Novak was on a tear in 2011. Anyone with a marginal experience in connecting dots would not find it difficult to imagine what would have happened if they met in RG 2011. Case closed.

Case not closed. The huge thing that didn't happen was they didn't meet at RG, where Rafa would have had a big advantage, which might have swung the whole dynamic. You can say what you THINK might have happened, but you can't guarantee it. What I can offer you is what it took Djokovic to win at RG. The reality is on my side.

 

[DarthFed]

Right. We all agree on that. But neither had a better than 40% chance, or less, of beating Nadal in the final. So had it been Djokovic, it was still far from a fait a complit that he would have beaten Nadal.

Like I said, if you're really REALLY biased you can say Novak had only a 40% chance.

 

[Moxie]

Like I said, if you're really REALLY biased you can say Novak had only a 40% chance.

The 40% came from someone else. That wasn't my prediction.

 

[monfed]

Literally nothing was in Nadull's favour at RG 11 final if he had played fakervic.

1) Fakervic was in dull's head, utterly destroying both his spirit and his moonballs at Madrid but specially Rome. That Rome defeat was so damning because remember faker was dead tired entering the final, meanwhile my beloved Wafa got a peachy draw as usual and was fresh as a daisy in that final. What was specially hilarious was that dull was doing WTA level moonballing from his BH wing to try and upset faker's rhythm but even those marsballs were getting smashed.

2) RG 11 lighter balls. This was a HUGE factor which defeated Novak against Fed. But boy would this have killed dull even more in the final vs fakervic.

3) Fakervic groundstrokes specially his 2HBH DTL were POWERFUL. I mean faker was literally crushing dull's moonballs DTL. It was a joke how easy he was making it look. I've never seen anything like it in my 25 years of watching tennis.

4) Nadull's own game was nowhere near the level or even 2014 let alone 2012 or perhaps 2014.

5) Overcast conditions. More agony on dull.

Look there is literally nothing and I mean nothing that points to a dull victory. Djokovic from AO 11 to Canada 11 was a monster on the baseline. He just would not miss a ball. It was ridiculous.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Wow, I can't believe you're still talking about Roger tanking and not the match as it was played. I really do find that line of thought shocking.

I told you very clearly, I am not in favor of Roger tanking matches in single elimination tourneys at all. Good try in making me look that way. All I said was, if he is going to tank the match it does not make sense to let the match go to next day.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Case not closed. The huge thing that didn't happen was they didn't meet at RG, where Rafa would have had a big advantage, which might have swung the whole dynamic. You can say what you THINK might have happened, but you can't guarantee it. What I can offer you is what it took Djokovic to win at RG. The reality is on my side.

If Novak had not beaten Rafa on clay that year, I would have some sympathy to your projection. Novak beat up on Rafa on both Masters finals and that too in straight sets. In fact, if Novak beat up on Rafa in Madrid only, but not in Rome, I could again give you some credibility as Rg courts play different than Madrid. But, Novak beat Rafa in Rome also. While there is no way to know what would have happened as it did not happen, most reasonable people would give greater credence to Novak beating Rafa that year if only he had moved on to finals.

 

[Moxie]

If Novak had not beaten Rafa on clay that year, I would have some sympathy to your projection. Novak beat up on Rafa on both Masters finals and that too in straight sets. In fact, if Novak beat up on Rafa in Madrid only, but not in Rome, I could again give you some credibility as Rg courts play different than Madrid. But, Novak beat Rafa in Rome also. While there is no way to know what would have happened as it did not happen, most reasonable people would give greater credence to Novak beating Rafa that year if only he had moved on to finals.

You don't have to recount the season to me. However, we all know that best of 5 is far different than best of 3, and Rafa at RG has been nearly unbeatable. I don't think you can project that win from Novak's best of 3 ones. Best case, I'd give you 50% chance. And don't think you can deny that.

 

[Moxie]

I told you very clearly, I am not in favor of Roger tanking matches in single elimination tourneys at all. Good try in making me look that way. All I said was, if he is going to tank the match it does not make sense to let the match go to next day.

Understood. If he were going to tank, he'd have tanked in 3. I still think it's amazing that you would talk about it at all.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You don't have to recount the season to me. However, we all know that best of 5 is far different than best of 3, and Rafa at RG has been nearly unbeatable. I don't think you can project that win from Novak's best of 3 ones. Best case, I'd give you 50% chance. And don't think you can deny that.

Novak won against Rafa in best of 5 matches (wimby and uso finals) and also on clay finals (madrid and rome). It is not a stretch to think that he would have had good chances in RG (which is putting clay and 5 together). Of course, we do know Rafa's record on five set matches on clay. But, you cannot use that record to predict his win, when his clay season is going poorly.

 

[Moxie]

Novak won against Rafa in best of 5 matches (wimby and uso finals) and also on clay finals (madrid and rome). It is not a stretch to think that he would have had good chances in RG (which is putting clay and 5 together). Of course, we do know Rafa's record on five set matches on clay. But, you cannot use that record to predict his win, when his clay season is going poorly.

You also can't use Novak's Wimby and USO b/o 5 as evidence, since they came after RG. And you forget that Rafa's RG was getting better by the round. He was coming onto form, for whomever was to meet him in the final. You forget my argument, which is had they met in the RG final, and Rafa had won, which was better than even odds, it might have changed the dynamic over the subsequent two majors, so I'd be careful playing the what-if game.

 

[monfed]

All this defending of Nadull as being some invincible figure at RG is classic dulltardism because dull was already beaten in 2009 and that is after showing his highest level in 2008. So let's not do this revisionist crap of looking at 2012,13,14 and projecting the outcome of those results as a saving grace for Nadull in 2011.

Even in 2013, Nadull's level was quite high and faker's wasn't that high. But still faker nearly won that and should have if it wasn't for that stupid net trip. Infact it was dull who should've closed out that match in 4 sets and it was he who choked. However Nadull's playing level itself was quite high.

Then in 2014, faker won that first set which he should've capitalised on but he was sick in that match and gave up his advantage like a fool. Also the past defeats of 2012,13, specially 13 played on his mind so he was done after losing the 3rd set.

 

[Moxie]

#excuses #troll

It took Djokovic 6 tries to beat Nada at RG, and then, when he was puny. Save your what-ifs.

 

[monfed]

#excuses #troll

It took Djokovic 6 tries to beat Nada at RG, and then, when he was puny. Save your what-ifs.

You're just being an impossibly stubborn dulltard. Keep living in your delusions.

 

[DarthFed]

You also can't use Novak's Wimby and USO b/o 5 as evidence, since they came after RG. And you forget that Rafa's RG was getting better by the round. He was coming onto form, for whomever was to meet him in the final. You forget my argument, which is had they met in the RG final, and Rafa had won, which was better than even odds, it might have changed the dynamic over the subsequent two majors, so I'd be careful playing the what-if game.

Rafa even struggled a bit with Roger in the final, I don't see the getting better by the round really mattering there. Of course he got better from round 1 when he went 5 with Isner. The fact Djokovic easily beat Nadal at 2 majors after Nadal gained confidence from winning RG is definitely not a point in your favor. There really isn't anything suggesting that match would be in Nadal's favor aside from you being a stubbornly biased fan.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

RE:
RG 2011 final

I do think Djokovic would've given Nadal more fight than Federer did especially not blowing leads and could go physically toe-to-toe with Nadal but I don't think it was a surefire win for Djokovic considering it was Best-of-5 and Djokovic hasn't really played his best clay tennis at RG having many weird losses like the straight set defeat against Kohlschreiber,blowing 2-0 against Melzer,the freak loss in 2015 when he was in his peak,losing in straights against thiem including a bagel and the Cecchinato disaster recently.