2018 Wimbledon men’s SF: Djokovic v Nadal

[Fiero425]

You are looking at it from the wrong angle. Feds loss in the final was 99.9% certain. Novaks chances were much better. Sure he might not have won it, but the inevitable happened when Fed decided he wanted to wag that finger. It would be ironic if he blew his GOAT status for that.

That wag has always ticked me off! He does it when most have counted him out and he happens to win a match over Nole or Rafa during that period; more shocking to him, hence the stupid "wag!" :sleep: :suicide:

 

[Moxie]

I am almost sure that Nadal was not beating Djokovic in the final. He was scared of Djokovic after a series of losses. He simply could not deal with psychological trauma that Djokovic inflicted on him. That was dumb by Federer. The silver lining for me is that Federer was the one who ended Djokovic's winning streak.

It doesn't really matter how "sure" you are that Djokovic would have won that final. At the time, it seemed to all of us that he might. But it's worth looking at what it really took him to beat Nadal at RG. It's not a wholly convincing argument that Novak would have won it. And if you want to be in the land of "what-ifs," had Nadal gotten him at RG that year, his best chance, he might well have beaten him at Wimbledon, where, at that time he was the better on grass, and perhaps even at the USO. So you can't just walk that one back without rethinking a lot of their encounters.

 

[atttomole]

It doesn't really matter how "sure" you are that Djokovic would have won that final. At the time, it seemed to all of us that he might. But it's worth looking at what it really took him to beat Nadal at RG. It's not a wholly convincing argument that Novak would have won it. And if you want to be in the land of "what-ifs," had Nadal gotten him at RG that year, his best chance, he might well have beaten him at Wimbledon, where, at that time he was the better on grass, and perhaps even at the USO. So you can't just walk that one back without rethinking a lot of their encounters.

My reasoning is based on what had happened earlier that year. I am not going to dismiss your point that he could have beaten Djokovic, but it was highly unlikely.

 

[Moxie]

You are looking at it from the wrong angle. Feds loss in the final was 99.9% certain. Novaks chances were much better. Sure he might not have won it, but the inevitable happened when Fed decided he wanted to wag that finger. It would be ironic if he blew his GOAT status for that.

Novak's chances were not that much better. But I'm not sure what you mean about the wagging of the finger and blowing his goat status by it. It may have been arrogant, (what's new?) but it didn't change the match, did it?

 

[Denis]

Novak's chances were not that much better. But I'm not sure what you mean about the wagging of the finger and blowing his goat status by it. It may have been arrogant, (what's new?) but it didn't change the match, did it?

It was figure of speech, Fed decided he really wanted to get asskicked in the final so made an extraordinary effort to beat Novak. Novaks chances would have been quite good, i think most people agree including a Nadal fans. I don’t think we have to go over that again.

 

[Moxie]

My reasoning is based on what had happened earlier that year. I am not going to dismiss your point that he could have beaten Djokovic, but it was highly unlikely.

Highly unlikely, in your opinion. You want to look at the betting odds? You want to look at commentators? The most important thing to look at is how Djokovic has performed at RG from there to when he won it. That match would have been his first final at RG. Nerves would have been an issue. As would fatigue, since he'd have had to play another set v. Roger on the Sat. Based on what we've seen from Rafa at RG, and Novak there, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Nole would have won that final, had they played it. I will certainly concede that Nole was in Rafa's head at that point, but it is the only variable that would have won him that match. There are plenty of variables that would have won it for Nadal.

 

[Moxie]

It was figure of speech, Fed decided he really wanted to get asskicked in the final so made an extraordinary effort to beat Novak. Novaks chances would have been quite good, i think most people agree including a Nadal fans. I don’t think we have to go over that again.

I would say that Roger, since he's a great champion, fancied his chances. You can call that tilting at windmills, but he, unlike his fans, decided he'd put his faith in himself, and not Djokovic. My opinion about Novak's chances are in the above.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

1. I am not one of Fed's fans who advocate that he should have tanked SF 11. I am in favor of tanking a match, only when it helps you to win the tourney. Needless to say that will never occur in a regular single elimination tournament. However, it happens in WTF sometimes, where the basic part is RR. For example, Simona had a chance to tank a match against someone else to prevent Serena from getting into the finals. She did not and that let Serena back into the finals where she beat up Simona.

2. Having said that, if Fed had lost in that SF, there is a very high chance that Novak would have won the final that year. We are talking about 2011 Nole here who had already inflicted severe damage to Rafa and that too on his beloved clay. He beat up on Rafa four times before RG (Indian wells, Miami, Madrid and Rome) and twice after RG (Wimby and USO). The RG match if it happened would be in the middle out here.
It does not take lot of imagination to see that Novak had better chances of winning the match at RG if it indeed happened.

 

[Moxie]

1. I am not one of Fed's fans who advocate that he should have tanked SF 11. I am in favor of tanking a match, only when it helps you to win the tourney. Needless to say that will never occur in a regular single elimination tournament. However, it happens in WTF sometimes, where the basic part is RR. For example, Simona had a chance to tank a match against someone else to prevent Serena from getting into the finals. She did not and that let Serena back into the finals where she beat up Simona.

2. Having said that, if Fed had lost in that SF, there is a very high chance that Novak would have won the final that year. We are talking about 2011 Nole here who had already inflicted severe damage to Rafa and that too on his beloved clay. He beat up on Rafa four times before RG (Indian wells, Miami, Madrid and Rome) and twice after RG (Wimby and USO). The RG match if it happened would be in the middle out here.
It does not take lot of imagination to see that Novak had better chances of winning the match at RG if it indeed happened.

It is in every Fed and Novak fan's imagination that Djokovic would have won that match. But it does defy odds. And you're a math guy. You completely forget that Novak would have had to play a full set v. Roger on the Saturday. That, alone, would have swayed things in Rafa's favor.

 

[monfed]

There was no guarantee, by a long shot, that Djokovic was winning that final, had he been in it. I find it astonishing that Federer fans had so little faith in Roger that they'd have called for him to tank. IMO, that was the nadir of your fandom. And you've been some obnoxious SOBs over the years.

LOL this is some revisionism. VB was partying from the rooftops when Federer won. That's probably the only match VB supported Fed.

 

[atttomole]

It is in every Fed and Novak fan's imagination that Djokovic would have won that match. But it does defy odds. And you're a math guy. You completely forget that Novak would have had to play a full set v. Roger on the Saturday. That, alone, would have swayed things in Rafa's favor.

Why would he have had to play a full set on Saturday?

 

[Fiero425]

Why would he have had to play a full set on Saturday?

I didn't watch! Maybe it was late like Nole's match with Rafa in the Wimbledon SF; would have been a carryover if Nole had taken the 4th and extended the match into a 5th set against Roger in 2011! Just a guess! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

Why would he have had to play a full set on Saturday?

The only way for Djokovic to have won that match would have been for him to have won the 4th set on Friday night, leaving them at 4-4 and done due to darkness. Therefore, Roger and Novak would have come back on Saturday and played a full set.

 

[Fiero425]

The only way for Djokovic to have won that match would have been for him to have won the 4th set on Friday night, leaving them at 4-4 and done due to darkness. Therefore, Roger and Novak would have come back on Saturday and played a full set.

I guessed right; it was late and darkness was falling! Did it rain to delay the start? I just can't remember a lot seeing as Nole's streak was stopped! At that time, that's all Roger was good for; a spoiler! He grabbed Wimbledon in 2012 and I thought he was done; even with the major finals made in '14 & '15! All props for adding 3 more to the resume at this late stage in his career! I never would have thought it possible; same with Nole winning this past week in England! WOW; what a great result! :heart:

 

[DarthFed]

Novak's chances were not that much better. But I'm not sure what you mean about the wagging of the finger and blowing his goat status by it. It may have been arrogant, (what's new?) but it didn't change the match, did it?

You can make your points without getting silly. Novak' chances weren't much better?? Seriously? If you're being very biased like you are, you could say Rafa had about a 60% chance to win vs Djokovic but his chances over Roger were probably over 95%. Everyone knew that result.

 

[DarthFed]

Highly unlikely, in your opinion. You want to look at the betting odds? You want to look at commentators? The most important thing to look at is how Djokovic has performed at RG from there to when he won it. That match would have been his first final at RG. Nerves would have been an issue. As would fatigue, since he'd have had to play another set v. Roger on the Sat. Based on what we've seen from Rafa at RG, and Novak there, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Nole would have won that final, had they played it. I will certainly concede that Nole was in Rafa's head at that point, but it is the only variable that would have won him that match. There are plenty of variables that would have won it for Nadal.

The only variable Nadal would have had going into that match was that it'd be Djokovic's first final there. That didn't seem to matter at Wimbledon even though Nadal had regained major confidence by that point. Novak had far better form, more confidence and was in Rafa's head. I don't think there's any doubt he would've been the favorite in that match by a good margin.

 

[Fiero425]

The only variable Nadal would have had going into that match was that it'd be Djokovic's first final there. That didn't seem to matter at Wimbledon even though Nadal had regained major confidence by that point. Novak had far better form, more confidence and was in Rafa's head. I don't think there's any doubt he would've been the favorite in that match by a good margin.

That was a glorious period where Nadal was playing his best and had come off 2011 as #1! Nole hadn't won anything in 3 years besides a few Masters so Nadal had no excuses besides the fact Nole was kickin' his arse! He was actually doing it in straight sets on clay beating him at Madrid and Rome! I taped every match and was watching them over and over again until Nole started a new streak in 2015 culminating in that shellacking in Qatar annihilating Rafa 1 & 2 in early 2016! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

The only variable Nadal would have had going into that match was that it'd be Djokovic's first final there. That didn't seem to matter at Wimbledon even though Nadal had regained major confidence by that point. Novak had far better form, more confidence and was in Rafa's head. I don't think there's any doubt he would've been the favorite in that match by a good margin.

You can't count the Wimbledon before the RG one, and that could have made a huge difference. But you do have to take into account how long it actually DID take Novak to win RG. It's a huge leap of faith to say he'd have won it that year.

 

[Moxie]

You can make your points without getting silly. Novak' chances weren't much better?? Seriously? If you're being very biased like you are, you could say Rafa had about a 60% chance to win vs Djokovic but his chances over Roger were probably over 95%. Everyone knew that result.

Your point is that Nadal had a better chance of beating either, right?

 

[monfed]

That RG 11 blunder of Federer was so easily avoidable that's why it's such a pity he gave his peak performance for an utterly pointless outcome. All he did was hand Nadull another RG on a platter. This is the one thing that I've hated about Fraud. Lack of pragmatism. And this is where Nadull has him beat BIG TIME. Fakervic too to a degree.

There are two kinds of pain, the good kind that helps you grow and the useless kind that gets you misery. Frauderer is a total doofus in differentiating between the two. He takes it like a pride thing, always wants to do the "right" thing. Cut your losses, Moron.

The entire dynamic of 2011 would've changed had fraud simply unleashed fakervic on dull. Nadull would've had his spirit completely crushed and wouldn't have even made the finals of both Wimbledon and USO because he would've been so utterly demoralised. On top of this huge shit pile of benefits, Fed would've taken out faker in the SF of USO because -

A) faker would've faced the unbearable pressure of completing the CYGS so no way he makes that blind pass on MP. No way he would've been that clutch. He himself would've been in severe pressure to complete the CYGS.

B) Fed wouldn't even need to worry about Nadull in the USO final as the latter wouldn't be there. So Fed gets a USO and becomes the undisputed USO GOAT.

To summarise, had fraud simply played normal tennis and not peaked at 500%, faker would've won RG crushing dull's spirit thereby disabling him for slams atleast in that year if not more years, Wimbledon and Fed would've won USO.

That's just the immediate aftermath. I strongly believe that faker would've won RG 13 SF too because he would've drawn upon his past experience of thrashing Nadull at RG 11. Not sure about 2012 because dull's form itself was too high and faker's own form wasn't anywhere near 2011.

You simply CANNOT underestimate the aftermath of losing your pet slam to your main rival who is systematically dismantling you in every surface. It is MASSIVE.

I will never be able to forgive Federer for RG 11 SF. Ever. What a colossal fucking mistake that was.