2018 Australian Open - Early Chatter

[mrzz]

I have never believed that the odd's makers have much imagination or that they pay as much attention to tennis as we do. At this given moment, I think we'd all give Rafa better odds than Novak.

One side of me agrees with you, the other never forgets that those vultures don't play with money, so they may know something we don't.

 

[shawnbm]

You’re being to cautious, Moxie—Nadal is far more a favorite, almost co-favorite with Roger. If they meet in the final, the pressure will be on Fed, rather than Rafa. That is my opinion.

 

[Moxie]

One side of me agrees with you, the other never forgets that those vultures don't play with money, so they may know something we don't.

You're right they're vultures, and they take other people's money. It's not like they get it massively wrong, but does it matter to them if they miss it on a few points here and there? Rather than actually paying attention? I think no. They still come out ahead.

 

[Moxie]

You’re being to cautious, Moxie—Nadal is far more a favorite, almost co-favorite with Roger. If they meet in the final, the pressure will be on Fed, rather than Rafa. That is my opinion.

I don't think I'm being cautious, just realistic, and telling it like it is. Rafa should be more favored than Novak, that's all I'm saying. Rafa's got a sore knee, but hopefully it's getting less sore. Only since last November, or whatever. Novak has a bad elbow since last summer or even earlier, to hear him tell it, and it's still sore. Or sore again. That's not so great. He said in November during Bercy he was barely able to practice, and was hitting left-handed (which is a huge wtf, if you ask me.) I'm hoping that Rafa is fit for the AO, but it's a big leap to get him into the final, at this stage. But, hey, it's a leap, still, to put Roger there. But should we go all the way to a Fedal final, I agree that the pressure is more on Roger. Long way off, though.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I have never believed that the odd's makers have much imagination or that they pay as much attention to tennis as we do. At this given moment, I think we'd all give Rafa better odds than Novak.

There is not a huge difference anyway. Novak has odds of 5.5 and Rafa has 6. Considering that Novak has won it 6 times and considering that the courts are playing fast (at least last year) and hence Rafa will have some disadvantage, I think it is fair.

 

[Moxie]

There is not a huge difference anyway. Novak has odds of 5.5 and Rafa has 6. Considering that Novak has won it 6 times and considering that the courts are playing fast (at least last year) and hence Rafa will have some disadvantage, I think it is fair.

I get that the difference is small, but it still lacks the finer notion of what goes on in tennis, right now. It is exactly that notion that, just because Novak has won it 6 times, he should have a decent shot, even though he's been gimpy for 7 months and out of sorts for 18. As I've said, I think the odds makers lack imagination, and information. It seems they just keep it close enough to work in their favor.

 

[the AntiPusher]

There is not a huge difference anyway. Novak has odds of 5.5 and Rafa has 6. Considering that Novak has won it 6 times and considering that the courts are playing fast (at least last year) and hence Rafa will have some disadvantage, I think it is fair.

Well aleast Rafa odds are better than last years(by the way ..with the poor odds of +1200 he made it to the finals and had a 3-1 edge in the 5th set..)..
Odds don’t mean a darn thing

 

[Front242]

That's so true. Federer had lower odds being off 6 months and should have won that match in 3 easy sets but bottled sets 2 and 4.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is the list of players who could not play a single warm-up event: Rafa, Andy, Novak, Stan, Kei.

In Stan's case, he did not even enter any (except for Mudabala) and so did not have to withdraw.

I bet that of the above five, at least a couple, if not more, will decide not to play AO.

 

[Busted]

You’re being to cautious, Moxie—Nadal is far more a favorite, almost co-favorite with Roger. If they meet in the final, the pressure will be on Fed, rather than Rafa. That is my opinion.

Gotta disagree that they're co-favorites. Nadal has yet to play a match this year and nobody really knows how his knees are. I also disagree that if they met in the final the pressure would be on Roger. To the contrary - Roger's got nothing to lose but a tightening of the Slam gap between himself and Nadal. Federer has already said it really doesn't matter to him of Nadal caches up or passes him because he's done things Nadal will never do and vice versa. It would be the same in another AO final - Roger has nothing to prove. It's not like his last Grand Slam title was achieved without playing anyone ranked inside the top 25.

 

[Busted]

Here is the list of players who could not play a single warm-up event: Rafa, Andy, Novak, Stan, Kei.

In Stan's case, he did not even enter any (except for Mudabala) and so did not have to withdraw.

I bet that of the above five, at least a couple, if not more, will decide not to play AO.

As I just posted on the Brisbane thread - Nadal, Djokovic and Wawrinka are all supposed to play in an XO on Jan 10. Lets see if any of them pull out...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK. Add Jack Sock to the injured list. He injured his hip and was forced to withdraw mid-match in Hopman's cup against Sugita.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tie break tens event will say nothing about anyone's fitness. There are no games or sets. The whole match is decided based on one tie break that goes to 10 points.

 

[Busted]

OK. Add Jack Sock to the injured list. He injured his hip and was forced to withdraw mid-match in Hopman's cup against Sugita.

The Hopman Cup spokesman said that although Sock was injured, stopping was mainly precautionary to check out the severity of the injury. Later in the evening after the Swiss team won their tie they said Sock expects to play on Thursday against Roger. Cuz...you know...it's sold out and none of these guys ever want to miss out on playing Roger in front of a sold out crowd...

 

[Busted]

Tie break tens event will say nothing about anyone's fitness. There are no games or sets. The whole match is decided based on one tie break that goes to 10 points.

I was pointing out that they were scheduled to play it because people were speculating that they wouldn't play anything at all before the AO. If any of them cancel out of this tie breaker event (which is probably about 15 minutes of playing), then they're either being extra cautious - or they're still injured. Flip a coin.

 

[shawnbm]

Sock should rest and not play tomorrow (Thursday in Perth). It is ludicrous unless assured he is fine. As for what Busted said ^, we must agree to disagree. Nobody but Nadal is proven to be ready to challenge Federer in Melbourne, notwithstanding Nole's 6 titles there. The heat, humidity and lack of match play or even ability to participate meaningfully in minor tune-ups goes against Novak being as fit and ready as Rafa--even with his precautionary pull out because of the one knee.

 

[mrzz]

You're right they're vultures, and they take other people's money. It's not like they get it massively wrong, but does it matter to them if they miss it on a few points here and there? Rather than actually paying attention? I think no. They still come out ahead.

The moment they get massively wrong is the moment they go out of business. The better they calculate/guess their odds, the more money they make in the long run. But, yes, they work with huge margins so they can still gain even if not paying that much attention (which is something I still find hard to believe). But... screw them, anyway.

 

[Moxie]

Gotta disagree that they're co-favorites. Nadal has yet to play a match this year and nobody really knows how his knees are. I also disagree that if they met in the final the pressure would be on Roger. To the contrary - Roger's got nothing to lose but a tightening of the Slam gap between himself and Nadal. Federer has already said it really doesn't matter to him of Nadal caches up or passes him because he's done things Nadal will never do and vice versa. It would be the same in another AO final - Roger has nothing to prove. It's not like his last Grand Slam title was achieved without playing anyone ranked inside the top 25.

Moyà says that not playing for Rafa is a precaution, to give him more rest before the tournament that matters. If you ask Darth, or most anyone, Roger does need to worry about the tightening Slam gap between them. It will still be the deal-breaker. I really can't believe you need to sing that old song about "not playing anyone out of the top 25," as to Rafa's USO win. :whistle: It's not like Roger had a rough road at Wimby. And it's not like Rafa wouldn't have played the #2 seed there, if Roger had made the date. Let me ask you this: do you think that Rafa's USO deserves an asterisk? Or that it doesn't count? If no, then why do you keep bring it up, other than sour grapes? I think we all agree it wasn't the most competitive USO of the last many, but you're just mad that Roger wasn't there to take it, instead of Rafa, innit?

 

[DarthFed]

Gotta disagree that they're co-favorites. Nadal has yet to play a match this year and nobody really knows how his knees are. I also disagree that if they met in the final the pressure would be on Roger. To the contrary - Roger's got nothing to lose but a tightening of the Slam gap between himself and Nadal. Federer has already said it really doesn't matter to him of Nadal caches up or passes him because he's done things Nadal will never do and vice versa. It would be the same in another AO final - Roger has nothing to prove. It's not like his last Grand Slam title was achieved without playing anyone ranked inside the top 25.

The slam count is probably 90% of what Fed thinks about now. The last 10% is probably a mix between getting to #1 one last time and closing that atrocious H2H with Nadal. Rafa catching him would of course be a nightmare. That's nothing he will admit but that's something he will fight to avoid. More than anything that's what keeps him around. 19 is great...now. It ain't great if the island tw*t gets there. That's the right attitude and it's one I'm confident he has. If Rafa and Nole were at 8 slams I wouldn't be surprised if Roger had already retired.

 

[El Dude]

I don't doubt that Roger would prefer to retire with more Slam titles than Rafa, just as Rafa (and Novak) want to catch the guy(s) ahead of him, but I think the characterization of "nightmare" is more a fan fiction than what these players actually experience.

I could be wrong, but I think the excessive focus on Slam count and other statistics is more important to fans than it is to the players themselves. They want to win, they want to collect their trophies and increase their legacies, but my sense for them is the glory is in the moment of being the best player on court, and winning the tournament at hand. I'm sure they sit back and check their Wikipedia pages every so often, but the focus is the battlefield itself, not the career scorecard that we fans focus on.

Roger, Rafa, and Novak are arguably the three greatest players ever to play the game. Everything else is just icing on the cake. And if we really must rank them, no matter who ends with the most Slam titles, all three are going to have gaps in their careers that naysayers will point at. In the end, though, we're looking at the three greatest players of the Open Era - at worst, three of the four or give best (if anyone ranks Pete or Bjorn ahead of Novak). That's pretty special.