2018 Australian Open - Early Chatter

[Moxie]

Nah.. Not at this point in his career.. Roger would ruin his chances at Wimbledon especially since Djoker is Back

I get why he's reeling out the question. Though hopefully moot, as Rafa is winning the AO this year. :devilfinger: Anyway, should Roger win it, he'll be looking at how Rafa and Novak, particularly, are playing. And he can probably wait until Rome to test the knee on clay. Not impossible.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic should not be underestimated for AO 2018. His absolute decline is huge, but mostly due that his peak in 2015 and first half of 2016 was so, so high.
End result is that his level did not drop to very low absolute level, as many anticipate, although the decline was relatively huge!
For example, he still had the 3-rd winning percentage in 2017 season, immediately after Federer and Nadal:

1

SUI Roger Federer 91.23% 52 5 57
2

ESP Rafael Nadal 85.90% 67 11 78
3

SRB Novak Djokovic 80.00% 32 8 40
4

BUL Grigor Dimitrov 72.06% 49 19 68
5

FRA Jo Wilfried Tsonga 71.70% 38 15 53
6

GER Alexander Zverev 71.43% 55 22 77
6

GBR Andy Murray 71.43% 25 10 35
8

BEL David Goffin 71.08% 59 24 83
9

CAN Milos Raonic 70.73% 29 12 41
10

ARG Juan Martin Del Potro 70.37% 38 16 54

80% winning pct in a bad, bad season is not too bad at all!
For example Federer had winning percentage of 72.6% in his bad season in 2013: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?name=Roger Federer&tab=performanceChart
And Nadal had winning percentage of 73.6% is his worst season recently (in 2016): http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?name=Rafael Nadal&tab=performanceChart

It's true that Djokovic's decline was only due to his usual standards of winning titles, and, obviously, his shutting down his year, mid-season, but his percentages are high also because he quit playing. Only Murray has fewer matches played on that list, and otherwise, by a lot.

 

[Busted]

Interesting (and wrong, imo) that Zverev gets slightly better odds than Dimitrov, given Dimitrov's history there, and the fact that he just won the YEC.

Uh...what Dimitrov history at the AO? QF in 2014 and aA lucky SF finish last year? Sure, Zverev has never made it out of a 2nd week at a Slam...but without a draw? I'd still pick him to win before I chose Dimitrov. I marvel that people actually think he was anything but lucky this year that there were so many players injured.. Until he beats a healthy Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray or Wawrinka in a big match I'll keep right on saying that. I mean come on...Roger hit a drop shot return off Dimitrov's serve at Wimbledon and thumped him 4, 2 and 4.. That just keeps replaying over and over in my head every time Dimitrov's name comes up.

 

[Busted]

Welcome @lldhub - Agreed, there are lots of question marks over a lot of the top players. With Federer, I think he'll use the same blueprint as last year and skip the clay swing. I do think he will play Roland Garros again before he retires, but it'll probably be a swan song in his final year on the tour. I don't think 2018 will be the last.

Who knows if it's true or not - one of the organizers in Rome said Roger has said he'll play some clay events this year.

 

[Moxie]

Uh...what Dimitrov history at the AO? QF in 2014 and aA lucky SF finish last year? Sure, Zverev has never made it out of a 2nd week at a Slam...but without a draw? I'd still pick him to win before I chose Dimitrov. I marvel that people actually think he was anything but lucky this year that there were so many players injured.. Until he beats a healthy Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray or Wawrinka in a big match I'll keep right on saying that. I mean come on...Roger hit a drop shot return off Dimitrov's serve at Wimbledon and thumped him 4, 2 and 4.. That just keeps replaying over and over in my head every time Dimitrov's name comes up.

I am no defender of Dimitrov. I think he's gaming for the list of underperformers. However, he's had good results at the AO, by his standards. We'll see if he does better than Zverev this year.

 

[isabelle]

both Nishikori and Sir Andy doubtful for AO

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Could be out:

Stan
Andy

So, Djokovic to be the only big guy at AO other than the Fedal? By the way the above withdrawls could make the tournament that much less interesting.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The court pace index of AO courts in 2017 was 42. This was the second highest among all tournaments in 2017. The highest one was Shanghai. Assuming, they maintain the CPI at this level, surely Fed has a decent chance of defending it. Interestingly, the USO courts had a paltry CPI of 35.7 last year. So, from now on (assuming they maintain it this way), we should consider AO as the medium-fast pace hardcourt slam and USO as medium pace hardcourt slam.

Here are the CPI of different Masters Tourneys in 2017.

You can get more funda on court pace index here.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

The court pace index of AO courts in 2017 was 42. This was the second highest among all tournaments in 2017. The highest one was Shanghai. Assuming, they maintain the CPI at this level, surely Fed has a decent chance of defending it. Interestingly, the USO courts had a paltry CPI of 35.7 last year. So, from now on (assuming they maintain it this way), we should consider AO as the fast hardcourt slam and USO as medium pace hardcourt slam.

Here are the CPI of different Masters Tourneys in 2017.

US Open has been visibly slower in the past few years.They should've kept up those speeds.A fast Hard court slam(US) coupled with a slow hard court slam(Aus) alongside Wimbledon and RG were the perfect slam surfaces

 

[Busted]

The court pace index of AO courts in 2017 was 42. This was the second highest among all tournaments in 2017. The highest one was Shanghai. Assuming, they maintain the CPI at this level, surely Fed has a decent chance of defending it. Interestingly, the USO courts had a paltry CPI of 35.7 last year. So, from now on (assuming they maintain it this way), we should consider AO as the medium-fast pace hardcourt slam and USO as medium pace hardcourt slam.

Here are the CPI of different Masters Tourneys in 2017.

Very interesting...Roger won on the slowest hard courts (IW) and the fastest (Shanghai). And of course Nadal won the 2 slowest events.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Aus Open is the new USO?

USO has slowed down. Generally, Federer fans are positive about the grand slam in US reminiscing 04-08 memories only to get disappointed every time.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Aus Open is the new USO?

USO has slowed down. Generally, Federer fans are positive about the grand slam in US reminiscing 04-08 memories only to get disappointed every time.

Fed fans can rejoice that the AO courts were a lot faster last year which played towards his strengths and he was able to ambush Rafa. He will be aight without any more US Open titles

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Fed fans can rejoice that the AO courts were a lot faster last year which played towards his strengths and he was able to ambush Rafa. He will be aight without any more US Open titles

Hmm. As long as there is one quick HC slam, it's nice. However, there was nothing to be too excited about during 11-16. Anyways, are you excited for the new season?

 

[DarthFed]

Fed fans can rejoice that the AO courts were a lot faster last year which played towards his strengths and he was able to ambush Rafa. He will be aight without any more US Open titles

And Rafa has been rejoicing for quite awhile as Wimbledon and USO have greatly slowed down.

Anyways it is past time for Fed to win #6 at USO. It will happen this year or the next

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Anyways it is past time for Fed to win #6 at USO. It will happen this year or the next

I am thinking that #6 at AO might happen faster than #6 at USO.

 

[isabelle]

a

Could be out:

Stan
Andy

So, Djokovic to be the only big guy at AO other than the Fedal? By the way the above withdrawls could make the tournament that much less interesting.

according to various rumors, Sir Andy could undergo a hip surgery and be back in Wimbly. any more news about it ??

 

[the AntiPusher]

Hmm. As long as there is one quick HC slam, it's nice. However, there was nothing to be too excited about during 11-16. Anyways, are you excited for the new season?

Yeah..I am excited especially if Novak lands in Roger’s qtr at AO but we know it will be Rafa’s

 

[the AntiPusher]

And Rafa has been rejoicing for quite awhile as Wimbledon and USO have greatly slowed down.

Anyways it is past time for Fed to win #6 at USO. It will happen this year or the next

Rafa rejoicing about Wimbledon..huh...Rafa has been the Andy Dufrense of the past 8 plus years at that tournament

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa rejoicing about Wimbledon..huh...Rafa has been the Andy Dufrense of the past 8 plus years at that tournament

But he was gifted two titles there by the retarded slower surface. A change which has hampered Federer on his best surface as well. And now of course the USO has slowed down for the island princess as well.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Let's just focus on the AO which has a refreshingly quick surface these days.