2018 Australian Open - Early Chatter

[El Dude]

To be serious, I've said it before - and it is hardly an unusual perspective - but I think Roger keeps playing as long as he thinks he has a chance at winning Slams, and the joy of the game is still there for him...but I think those are two sides of the same coin.

 

[El Dude]

On a different note, win% isn't everything but it does tell us something. Here is now Fedalovic rank in career (Open Era) win% on different court times:

HARD
1. Djokovic 84.25%
2. Laver 84.14%
3. Federer 83.49%
....
12. Nadal 76.97%

CLAY
1. Rafa 91.75%
2. Borg 86.02%
3. Lendl 81.03%
4. Djokovic 80.08%
...
15. Federer 75.89%

GRASS
1. Federer 87.23%
...
9. Djokovic 81.91%
...
15. Nadal 77.22%

Or to put it another way...ranks on hard, clay, grass:
Novak: 1, 4, 9
Rafa: 12, 1, 15
Roger: 3, 15, 1

Novak is the most balanced, Rafa the least. All three have the greatest win% all-time on one of the big three surfaces, with Rafa having the largest lead by a good margin. The gap between Novak and Roger on hards is tiny.

No clear conclusions to make, just food for thought.

 

[Moxie]

On a different note, win% isn't everything but it does tell us something. Here is now Fedalovic rank in career (Open Era) win% on different court times:

HARD
1. Djokovic 84.25%
2. Laver 84.14%
3. Federer 83.49%
....
12. Nadal 76.97%

CLAY
1. Rafa 91.75%
2. Borg 86.02%
3. Lendl 81.03%
4. Djokovic 80.08%
...
15. Federer 75.89%

GRASS
1. Federer 87.23%
...
9. Djokovic 81.91%
...
15. Nadal 77.22%

Or to put it another way...ranks on hard, clay, grass:
Novak: 1, 4, 9
Rafa: 12, 1, 15
Roger: 3, 15, 1

Novak is the most balanced, Rafa the least. All three have the greatest win% all-time on one of the big three surfaces, with Rafa having the largest lead by a good margin. The gap between Novak and Roger on hards is tiny.

No clear conclusions to make, just food for thought.

Obviously, this points up Rafa's dominance on clay, and lack of resume, in one way of looking at it, off of it. However, he won a Wimbledon beating Roger, and 2x USO beating Djokovic. Also, his here-to-fore only AO beating Federer. So, while he hasn't had the success R & N have had on the other surfaces, which, as you point out, they dominate, he has bested them both where it matters, on their best surfaces. Whereas, Roger has never beaten Rafa at the FO, and rarely beaten him on clay. Djokovic has fared a little better on Rafa's favorite surface, but it took Rafa at his worst for Novak to finally beat him at RG. And he'd tried a lot of times. Percentages are one thing, but rubber-meets-the-road is another, right?

 

[El Dude]

Yes, @Moxie, although I never criticized Rafa's resume. It seems you are just constantly looking for a Fedal skirmish, aren't you?

 

[Busted]

No, I actually wouldn't. It's petty and meaningless. But you didn't answer my question: why do you keep harping on it? Do you think that his USO doesn't count?

But I do agree with you that almost whatever happens, the debate will rage on. :lulz2:

I thought my answer the question was implied - I "harp" on it because it's a really bad stat. To me it's a more damning stat than the, "Fedeer didn't have to beat Nadal to win the French Open" argument. No, but he did have to beat 2 top 10 players - and Soderling was #25 at the time, so that means he beat 3 guys in the top 25 to Nadal's 0. There's always some stat that's a caveat to someone winning something...and for Nadal's great return to winning a non-clay Slam - which Uncle Toni heralded as bring a huge achievement? It was pretty fricking lame.

 

[Busted]

Funny that you think that is a serious aim for Roger. Women's tennis is totally different world than Men's tennis and so it does not even make sense to compare. Hence, that aspect is not seriously considered neither by pundits, nor by journalists. Get real.

I guess that means you didn't watch\read Roger's post-Wimbledon interviews, huh? He was asked about tying the all-time singles record - Navratilova's 9 - and he said how much it meant to him to have the men's record, but yes, it would be great to tie the all-time record as well. Sooooo...I guess you'd better go tell Roger to "get real" and that the OVERALL record doesn't count because...you know...it's a chick record, Rog! Oy vey...

 

[Busted]

Here's a purely speculative thought: Maybe Roger cares less about being GOAT than Mirka does...she had a mediocre career, but is living vicariously through her husband. I mean, wives and all .

LOL! Listen...don't mess with Mirka, El Dude. She will cut you! Just ask Stan...

 

[Busted]

You laugh but she's a serious lady and she won't let Roger leave the game early with so much at stake. He is in good hands and I bet it's awhile before she says "it's time to stay home"

I think he's lucky to have a wife who played the game, was on the women's tour, loves to travel - and understands the importance of his greatness and his place in sports history - not just tennis history but all of sports. There's a lot of women who wouldn't "get it" and wouldn't travel with their kids so much. Especially as an athlete ages and isn't winning as much as when they were younger. Human nature is to start thinking of it as a snipe hunt - another aging athlete who refuses to acknowledge it's time to hang it up. The good for Roger has always been - except for the 2 years he was injured he was still in the top 4 and still making Slam SF and Finals. So it's not like he had slipped to #20 in the world and was tilting at windmills. If that happened - I think even Mirka was say enough already.

 

[Busted]

I got sidetracked just now...I just stopped by to say that I read that Nishikori has pulled out of the AO...

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2018...ustralian-open-because-wrist-not-ready/71033/

 

[Moxie]

Yes, @Moxie, although I never criticized Rafa's resume. It seems you are just constantly looking for a Fedal skirmish, aren't you?

Now who's being defensive? I never said you were criticizing Rafa. I was just pointing up where the stats don't lay right on the accomplishments. As a Rafa fan, I feel it's my job to help illuminate for Nadal's part, where warranted. I can't imagine that should set up a skirmish. I wasn't wrong, was I?

 

[Moxie]

I thought my answer the question was implied - I "harp" on it because it's a really bad stat. To me it's a more damning stat than the, "Fedeer didn't have to beat Nadal to win the French Open" argument. No, but he did have to beat 2 top 10 players - and Soderling was #25 at the time, so that means he beat 3 guys in the top 25 to Nadal's 0. There's always some stat that's a caveat to someone winning something...and for Nadal's great return to winning a non-clay Slam - which Uncle Toni heralded as bring a huge achievement? It was pretty fricking lame.

Yikes...you're really holding onto some old stuff there, @Busted. I don't know what other boards you might frequent, but around here I don't think anyone has had anything bad to say about Roger's FO win. Certainly not in some years, and therefore not on this forum, though I can't speak for everyone. Personally, I've praised it as admirable, given the pressure, especially. Opportunity offered, and seized. Perhaps you'll be able to say the same for Rafa's 2017 USO someday.

 

[Busted]

If they all stopped now, Fed would be the best of the 3. And I have no problem saying that he has genuine claim to the GOAT, if there is but one. But there is a big difference in his H2H history with Nadal, compared to either of their H2Hs with Novak. The primary point v. Novak being how long it took Novak to overtake them, even with his years of dominance, and their weakened years. He never got it when they were in good form. Nadal, on the other hand, has always had Roger's number. It tells its own story how hard Fed fans work to dice up the H2H in ways that favor Roger. You moan about the clay, but even you admit that he's only just passed Rafa in the HC part. Roger has grass, but just 2-1. The late, great Bud Collins, when asked if Roger can be the greatest of all time if he can't beat the best competitor of his era said "No." I think we'll probably land somewhere that Roger has been the GOAT in many ways, and Rafa the clay GOAT. But they're not finished yet.

But again - you discount that fact that the majority of Nadal's early wins were on clay. Even when the record was 23-10 - it was still 13-2 on clay and 10-8 on other surfaces. The 10-8 wouldn't be blown out of proportion if shot for the 13-2 clay lead. Roger may have won more of the non-clay meetings...except..Nadal didn't make the finals on other surfaces as often as Roger did. Maybe if they had played as much on ohter surfaces Nadal wouldn't have been in Roger's head when they did finally play on other surfaces. Roger already admitted that losing the 2008 FO caused him to play the wrong way the first 2 sets of the 2008 Wimbledon and that's why he ultimately lost that match. So the "maybes" and "what ifs" are always going to be an issue.

Re: the Fedal vs. Djokovic H2Hs....don't disagree with you as much on that score....

Re: Bud Collins...Bud ain't the last word or even the best word. Even good old Johnny Mac, who held that same opinion about the H2H, is now saying Roger's the GOAT. There are always going to be people who quibble about their H2H. If they played 8 times in 2017 and Roger won all of them and tied the H2H at 23-23...there'd still be people who'd say, "But Nadal beat Federer more in Federer's prime"...even as others would argue that Roger may be playing better tennis now than he did in his prime. It's like the chicken and the egg...

 

[britbox]

It's official - Andy Murray has pulled out of the AO.

 

[Moxie]

I got sidetracked just now...I just stopped by to say that I read that Nishikori has pulled out of the AO...

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2018...ustralian-open-because-wrist-not-ready/71033/

This is actually to the point of the thread, and I'm sorry to read it. Nishikori has had some very bad injury luck in his career. He's falling into del Potro territory.

 

[Moxie]

It's official - Andy Murray has pulled out of the AO.

On the heels of Nishikori. Very bad news. I wonder if this means he'll have surgery.

 

[britbox]

Tomic denied wildcard for AO.

https://goo.gl/PQ7P5k

Good for Tennis Australia. Let the brat earn his keep the hard way.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I guess that means you didn't watch\read Roger's post-Wimbledon interviews, huh? He was asked about tying the all-time singles record - Navratilova's 9 - and he said how much it meant to him to have the men's record, but yes, it would be great to tie the all-time record as well. Sooooo...I guess you'd better go tell Roger to "get real" and that the OVERALL record doesn't count because...you know...it's a chick record, Rog! Oy vey...

When a reporter asks about it, he is not going to say "No, it does not mean a crap". Look at the wordings in your own post. He said "how much is meant to have men's record" (an obvious statement of its importance) in contrast to "yes, it would be great to tie the all-time record" (which is a clear statement of playing along with the interviewer and not creating fire-storms over nothing).

It is really funny that you think Roger does not care much about ending as the male player with the most number of slams, but he cares about tieing or exceeding Martina at Wimbledon. Almost everyone would agree with me that not only the former is of more importance in general but also in Roger's view.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Novak has apparently said today that he is still not sure whether he will be able to play at AO this year. He too may decide to skip out.

 

[Moxie]

OK, just to recap: Murray is out, Nishikori is out; Djokovic seems increasingly doubtful. Nadal's knee is a bit of a question mark. Federer is leaping around like a faun at Hopman Cup. Roanic and Berdych lost their first matches back from injury. Kyrgios's comeback is going better...he's in QF at Brisbane. Wawrinka to test his knee next week at XO. Del Potro in action next week. Monfils and Sock took spills but seem to be fine. Dimitrov, Zverev, Goffin and Thiem look in good shape. Well, good luck with the Draw Challenge, eh?

 

[britbox]

Looking grim for the AO and doesn't paint a great outlook for the year. This is the year of opportunity for the young guns step up.