2018 Australian Open - Early Chatter

[Carol]

And here we go............

 

[the AntiPusher]

And here we go............

Yep..then the trolling shall begin

 

[El Dude]

The usual with articles v. headlines: alarmist headlines are a dime a dozen. However, as to the #1 ranking, there is no "200 Club." You really just made that up. He has to get past 180 weeks to pass McEnroe on the list, which would be nice, but I think passing Novak is untouchable for him (another year,) and so I'm sure he won't care about that. I'm sure he's about Majors and keeping his body healthy. Even Toni has talked about him passing Roger in Majors. That said, he'll still probably play too much, as that is his way.

Well of course I made it up, but all such things are made up by someone. My point it is simply that he might have an eye towards 200, even though it isn’t inherently more impressive than, say, 197. In a similar way that Roger probably likes the idea of finishing his career with 100+ titles rather than 99 (although now he might be thinking about Jimmy’s 109).

By the way, McEnroe has 170 weeks.


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[El Dude]

I agree that there is nothing else in the article but the information about the Brisbane withdrawing, but... I agree with the conclusion. He withdrawn from everything possible before the AO (two EXO´s and one real tournament). The only thing left is the AO. Let´s hope he plays but the pattern is not good.

Given that, not that sure if he'll coast to #1. He had a great first half of the year in 2017 and even healthy that is not easy to repeat. Ok, he's only adversary for #1 in the first half of 2018 is Federer, who also probably won't defend his points, but for the second half everything is up for grabs.

To be clear, I didn’t say that’s he’ll coast to year-end #1, but that he’ll coast AS #1 for much of the year IF healthy.


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[Moxie]

Well of course I made it up, but all such things are made up by someone. My point it is simply that he might have an eye towards 200, even though it isn’t inherently more impressive than, say, 197. In a similar way that Roger probably likes the idea of finishing his career with 100+ titles rather than 99 (although now he might be thinking about Jimmy’s 109).

By the way, McEnroe has 170 weeks.


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Oh, right, 170 weeks, and Rafa is now at 160. Sure, round numbers are always nice, so I take your point there, but I don't think Rafa will be thinking too much about that. Your example of 99 v. 100 titles, or catching Jimmy's 109 is rather more important, though. Additional titles means more than weeks at #1, if you ask me. But catching the guy ahead of you is the real goal, rather than a random round number. Reaching 200 weeks at #1 looks better on paper, but the next guy ahead of Rafa on the list is Novak, and, as I mentioned, that would be another year at #1, and I don't think that will happen, so it's not really something to strive for. Remember what you guys think happened to Roger when he was theoretically reaching for YE#1. For Rafa, it should be all about Majors at this point, as it is assumed to be with Roger.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nostalgia: Last 5 games of AO'17 with commentary.

 

[britbox]

Nostalgia: Last 5 games of AO'17 with commentary.

The gift that keeps on giving. Love that video.

 

[El Dude]

I've watched that video maybe half a dozen times. I'm guessing Nadal fans watched that video, on average, 0.7 times.

 

[mrzz]

I'm guessing Nadal fans watched that video, on average, 0.7 times.

Put a minus in front of that figure and I can start to consider agreement.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Odds for winning AO outright by the bookies (on the day before the first warm up tourneys)

All players with a 1% or better chances are listed below. There are 16 of them.

1. Federer 11/4
2. Novak 11/2
3. Rafa 6
4. Sasha 11
5. Grigor 12
6. Andy 13
7. JMDP 20
8. Kyrgios 25
9. Wawrinka 30
10. Cilic / Goffin / Thiem / Raonic 40
14. Nishikori 80
15. Sock / Anderson 100

Of these 16, Rafa, Novak, Andy, Stan and Nishikori are all having physical issues and are unlikely to win AO outright.

Next update will be at the end of the first week tourneys of Brisbane / Doha / Pune / Hopman cup.

 

[Front242]

Roger chuckling to himself pre AO. Favourite again at age 36. Would you Adam and Eve it, mate?!

 

[mrzz]

Are these guys really giving Djokovic a better chance than Nadal? Either they are not giving importance to Djokovic withdrawal or they assuming Nadal are worst than we think. Ok, both withdraw from the everything in sight, but Djokovic is the guy who is out for about six months.

 

[Front242]

Who knows wtf is up really. Djokovic was said to be practicing perfectly fine and was eagerly awaiting his comeback. Seems a bit weird that it only now got sore again? Nadal I'm sure will be fine assuming he plays but Murray seriously did look really bad against RBA. His career could be in serious jeopardy given how poor his movement looked. It's got worse rather than better.

 

[mrzz]

About Murray one option is that he was just having it easy, given that it was just an EXO. The movement against Federer one month ago was looking good, waaay better than this. But, yes, if it worsened to this point it is really worrying, but I would rather wait for his first match which is around the corner to have a better idea.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nishikori withdraws from Sydney also after withdrawing from Brisbane earlier. Now, it looks highly unlikely that he will play at AO.

 

[shawnbm]

What is wrong with all these young players pulling up injured in their early to mid-20s? Had the game become that much more physically taxing? Happy New Years to all!

 

[El Dude]

What is wrong with all these young players pulling up injured in their early to mid-20s? Had the game become that much more physically taxing? Happy New Years to all!

Which players are you talking about? Most of the big name injury concerns are late 20s to 30s...don’t forget that Raonic is already 27, Nishikori 28, Andy and Novak 30, Rafa 31, and Stan 32.

Historically speaking it isn’t unusual for players to start having injury concerns in their late 20s. Maybe a lot of what is going on is that the elite of the game has just entered the “increased injury window.”

 

[shawnbm]

I thought Kei and Milos were about three years younger

 

[GameSetAndMath]

All the big names will be back for the Australian Open... it's one of the reasons why I love this tournament - injury pullouts are usually pretty minimal with it being so early in the season.

This is the OP of this thread. :lulz2:

 

[Moxie]

Are these guys really giving Djokovic a better chance than Nadal? Either they are not giving importance to Djokovic withdrawal or they assuming Nadal are worst than we think. Ok, both withdraw from the everything in sight, but Djokovic is the guy who is out for about six months.

I have never believed that the odd's makers have much imagination or that they pay as much attention to tennis as we do. At this given moment, I think we'd all give Rafa better odds than Novak.