Rafa
has officially withdrawn from Basel . However, the reason quoted is more of protection from over stressing of right knee. Hence, I don't think he will miss Bercy or WTF.
Anyway, this opens up a possibility for YE#1 for Fed. In order to get to YE#1 in a sure fire way, Fed needs to win Basel, Bercy and WTF (without losing a match). Even then YE #1 is not guaranteed for Fed. The current lead of Rafa is 1960. If Fed wins all these three events he will accumulate 3000 more. So, Rafa would need to make up 1050 or more in Bercy and WTF put together. If Rafa becomes runner up in Bercy, then he would only need 450 in WTF. If Rafa wins two RR matches in WTF, he will get 400. However, if Rafa is inefficient in his wins and some other player in his group wins efficiently, Rafa may end up as the runner-up of his group. If Fed is the winner of his group, then Fedal will happen in semifinal stage at WTF. If Fed defeats Rafa in SF, Fed can become YE#1 (Note: recall that in WTF you don't get brownie points for reaching SF, You get 400 extra points for winning SF and another 500 extra points for winning F).