2014 Roland Garros Final: Nadal vs. Djokovic

[I.Haychew]

I desperately want Djokovic to win. But...I'll believe it when I see it. Prediction: Nadal in phour. Hope: Djokovic in three (6-0, 6-0, 6-0).

 

[Moxie]

does anyone know what actually happened to djoker in 3rd set. i cant find any legit news sources describing it. most say his level dropped but i thought i heard somewhere he got tired??

Here is his interview from the official RG website. He says he got fatigued. If so, though, the question is why.

 

[DarthFed]

Therefore, Rafa has just over a 68% win rate in Slam finals. Novak: 50%. Just sayin'…for those that like to quote betting odds as if they matter.

Neither are good %'s but so far Djoker's is abominable. He also holds no slams currently so he is in desperate need to show he can still play on the big stage.

 

[tented]

Therefore, Rafa has just over a 68% win rate in Slam finals. Novak: 50%. Just sayin'…for those that like to quote betting odds as if they matter.

Neither are good %'s but so far Djoker's is abominable. He also holds no slams currently so he is in desperate need to show he can still play on the big stage.

Yeah, now that you mention it, this is the biggest question mark hanging over the final: Will Novak be able to hold it together mentally/emotionally? He really has had trouble in GS finals and semis recently, plus he wants RG so badly, it could hurt him.

 

[crystalfire]

Therefore, Rafa has just over a 68% win rate in Slam finals. Novak: 50%. Just sayin'…for those that like to quote betting odds as if they matter.

Neither are good %'s but so far Djoker's is abominable. He also holds no slams currently so he is in desperate need to show he can still play on the big stage.

He def needs this but he's proven he can play in the big stages. That's not an issue. He just hasn't been able to put it together the past few slams

 

[crystalfire]

does anyone know what actually happened to djoker in 3rd set. i cant find any legit news sources describing it. most say his level dropped but i thought i heard somewhere he got tired??

Here is his interview from the official RG website. He says he got fatigued. If so, though, the question is why.

I'm also wondering. If that happens say when he's up 2 sets on Rafa then Rafa will run away with that

 

[the AntiPusher]

The match will come down to Nadal's off forehand and his serve. Both have been pedestrian this entire year and particularly bad in the clay season. Nadal needs to vary up his serve out wide on the deuce court and down the middle in ad court to Novak's forehand. If he continues the predictable low pace backhand serving he WILL LOSE - maybe even easily. He cannot really fight for every one of his serving games and expect to beat Djokovic. The fact is, he needs cheap points and he isn't better than Djokovic off the ground. So the mphs and the placement on serve have to be vastly better.

The off-forehand is also the key. Nadal hasn't been attacking Novak's forehand as he did in the UsOpen 2013 for instance. He is also much less aggressive with that shot and uses the DTL and I/o forehands less than he should. All that will need to change unless Nadal plans to be on defense all through the match, run a lot and lose control of a majority of points.

Looking at the form in the clay season, one wouldn't expect Nadal to be very competitive in the final. BUT this is RG and this is Nadal. This is where he fights the hardest, and you write him off at your own peril.

At the same time, however. nothing lasts forever. History is beckoning. This match has a Wimbledon 2008 final feel.
The king is dead, long live the King.

Novak in 5.

his forehand looked pretty good to me today. he was dictating points and ripping it cc. idk how much of it had to do with murray.

Yep.. Rafa has stepped up his forehand the past 6 sets.. The earlier post spells it out perfectly.. If Rafa is able to establish early and dictate with his forehand he will have an opportunity to be fully confident which typically translates over to his service game which he must take care of exactly like today. He has to control the center of the court and take the net at every opportunity. Novak is going to be true to his game and try to continuously attack Rafa serves and the short balls in the court. I feel Rafa's serve was very good to excellent at times today. My concern is the backhand and if Rafa tries to slice the ball. Rafa's slice is good but he needs keep it dtl or to the center of the court to let Djoker create his own angles. This one is gonna be an excellent final because although recent history suggest that Novak is the aggressor\bully. Rafa looked really fit and strong at the end of the match. As for Djoker experiencing heat related illness today I expect him to be fully recovered.

 

[Moxie]

does anyone know what actually happened to djoker in 3rd set. i cant find any legit news sources describing it. most say his level dropped but i thought i heard somewhere he got tired??

Here is his interview from the official RG website. He says he got fatigued. If so, though, the question is why.

I'm also wondering. If that happens say when he's up 2 sets on Rafa then Rafa will run away with that

He started today at 1pm CET, and started to flag as the day got hotter. I know the heat bothers him, but I still wonder if it was more frustration, tbh, that lost him that 3rd set. On Sunday, they'll start at 3pm. For now, any rain is scheduled for the morning, the afternoon to be about the same amount of warm and dry as today, though somewhat humid. That's not a prescription for a fast start from Novak.

 

[Riotbeard]

I went with Rafa in 4 because I have a birthday lunch out of town on Sunday, and I can't hang around for 5. :nono :snigger

But seriously, people keep saying Rafa will likely lift his level, and he already did today. This from Murray after the match, (via NYTimes): “Today he was hitting extremely hard, extremely heavy, returning well, and was hitting it well on the run….You can go out there with, you know, all the tactics in the world, but when he’s hitting the ball like that, very difficult to hit the ball where you want to.”

Additionally, Novak decided to get hot and tired, (he says) and frustrated against Gulbis, for basically no reason. He won't be able to afford to do this against Nadal, who will give him plenty more reason.

Realistically, I know this could go either way, and has a very good chance to go 5 sets. But in the mental battle, Rafa won points today, in terms of his confidence, and Nole lost some, demonstrating that the moment can get to him. Gulbis said (also via NYT): “It was not a good quality tennis at all,” Gulbis said. “It was just grinding and just trying to put the ball in. Not me, not he felt the ball good. You know, it was really slow pace. It was a struggle out there.” If he can gift a set to Gulbis, who felt like he had very little game today, nervous in his first Slam SF, I think he's even more vulnerable to the same mental lapses against Nadal in the final at RG.

I suppose I'm not breaking any ground to say it will be a mental and physical battle.

Bright side if you are a novak fan, he can have dramatically different levels from match to match. In Rome, he didn't produce near the level of tennis he played the final in the earlier rounds. I pretty much agree with nehmeth.

 

[Moxie]

I went with Rafa in 4 because I have a birthday lunch out of town on Sunday, and I can't hang around for 5. :nono :snigger

But seriously, people keep saying Rafa will likely lift his level, and he already did today. This from Murray after the match, (via NYTimes): “Today he was hitting extremely hard, extremely heavy, returning well, and was hitting it well on the run….You can go out there with, you know, all the tactics in the world, but when he’s hitting the ball like that, very difficult to hit the ball where you want to.”

Additionally, Novak decided to get hot and tired, (he says) and frustrated against Gulbis, for basically no reason. He won't be able to afford to do this against Nadal, who will give him plenty more reason.

Realistically, I know this could go either way, and has a very good chance to go 5 sets. But in the mental battle, Rafa won points today, in terms of his confidence, and Nole lost some, demonstrating that the moment can get to him. Gulbis said (also via NYT): “It was not a good quality tennis at all,” Gulbis said. “It was just grinding and just trying to put the ball in. Not me, not he felt the ball good. You know, it was really slow pace. It was a struggle out there.” If he can gift a set to Gulbis, who felt like he had very little game today, nervous in his first Slam SF, I think he's even more vulnerable to the same mental lapses against Nadal in the final at RG.

I suppose I'm not breaking any ground to say it will be a mental and physical battle.

Bright side if you are a novak fan, he can have dramatically different levels from match to match. In Rome, he didn't produce near the level of tennis he played the final in the earlier rounds. I pretty much agree with nehmeth.

I do, too. Djokovic needs his belief and resolve, and pretty much his 2011 level, all-around. He finds it sometimes, and frustratingly enough, against Rafa, all too often. But since 2011, he mostly finds in in 3-setters. Novak will have to put it all together for this match. And so will Rafa. And they both will try. I daresay this is the most anticipated match of the year.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I went with Rafa in 4 because I have a birthday lunch out of town on Sunday, and I can't hang around for 5. :nono :snigger

But seriously, people keep saying Rafa will likely lift his level, and he already did today. This from Murray after the match, (via NYTimes): “Today he was hitting extremely hard, extremely heavy, returning well, and was hitting it well on the run….You can go out there with, you know, all the tactics in the world, but when he’s hitting the ball like that, very difficult to hit the ball where you want to.”

Additionally, Novak decided to get hot and tired, (he says) and frustrated against Gulbis, for basically no reason. He won't be able to afford to do this against Nadal, who will give him plenty more reason.

Realistically, I know this could go either way, and has a very good chance to go 5 sets. But in the mental battle, Rafa won points today, in terms of his confidence, and Nole lost some, demonstrating that the moment can get to him. Gulbis said (also via NYT): “It was not a good quality tennis at all,” Gulbis said. “It was just grinding and just trying to put the ball in. Not me, not he felt the ball good. You know, it was really slow pace. It was a struggle out there.” If he can gift a set to Gulbis, who felt like he had very little game today, nervous in his first Slam SF, I think he's even more vulnerable to the same mental lapses against Nadal in the final at RG.

I suppose I'm not breaking any ground to say it will be a mental and physical battle.

Bright side if you are a novak fan, he can have dramatically different levels from match to match. In Rome, he didn't produce near the level of tennis he played the final in the earlier rounds. I pretty much agree with nehmeth.

I do, too. Djokovic needs his belief and resolve, and pretty much his 2011 level, all-around. He finds it sometimes, and frustratingly enough, against Rafa, all too often. But since 2011, he mostly finds in in 3-setters. Novak will have to put it all together for this match. And so will Rafa. And they both will try. I daresay this is the most anticipated match of the year.

Djokovic doesn't need his 2011 level. If that was his only chance to win this would be a foregone conclusion (as in, Nadal would win, as Novak is unlikely to play quite as well as he did in 2011 because, well, he hasn't done that since 2011). And if he does play like 2011, this is also a foregone conclusion (as in, Djokovic would win).

It's not quite the situation. But, provided Nadal isn't nervous/shaky, dropping the ball short, and doing other Nadal-in-poor-form related things, Djokovic does need to be hitting the ball cleanly and dictating.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic doesn't need his 2011 level. If that was his only chance to win this would be a foregone conclusion (as in, Nadal would win, as Novak is unlikely to play quite as well as he did in 2011 because, well, he hasn't done that since 2011). And if he does play like 2011, this is also a foregone conclusion (as in, Djokovic would win).

It's not quite the situation. But, provided Nadal isn't nervous/shaky, dropping the ball short, and doing other Nadal-in-poor-form related things, Djokovic does need to be hitting the ball cleanly and dictating.

I see what you're saying, but I don't think you can completely extract Novak's 2011 "tennis" level from his 2011 "mental" level. That's why I say he needs to be something like that, i.e., when he plays with belief. His best (post-2011) tennis level basically beats anyone on a given day. In 2011, he put that together with unwavering belief and confidence for something like 10 months. Since then, it has wavered, and sometimes at the biggest moments. He will need his confidence on Sunday, and won't be able to afford much in the way of mental lapse.

As you put it, in the most basic terms above, I agree. Which will require that both play with confidence, and maintain it throughout. If I were betting who would maintain it, throughout, it would be Nadal.

 

[Front242]

He seems to have done pretty well in the unbearable Melbourne heat winning his AO titles so I'd take heat exhaustion with a pinch of salt. Must've been something other than heat that was at him against Gulbis or else just should've worn his cap all match.

 

[Front242]

Probably didn't hydrate properly is my guess. He drank a ton after the match before his post match interview.

 

[Moxie]

He seems to have done pretty well in the unbearable Melbourne heat winning his AO titles so I'd take heat exhaustion with a pinch of salt. Must've been something other than heat that was at him against Gulbis or else just should've worn his cap all match.

I just think he let Gulbis frustrate him, but out of the blue, and for not that many good reasons. That's why I think his stock went down for the final…if you think Gulbis frustrated him, just wait for Nadal. As you say, he's born the blistering heat in Melbourne and won 4 times. Today was a basically pleasant high 70s F/around 24-26 C. And he only just played his 2nd 4th setter of the tournament. Unless he is actually ill, he's playing possum about the heat, if you ask me. :angel:

 

[lacatch]

I don't think what happened in Gulbis match today has any impact on the final with Rafa. As has been said, Novak's level can vary greatly from match to match, and he brings an intensity against Rafa that doesn't manifest itself against any other player. And I don't believe Rafa's play will "frustrate" Novak; if anything the reverse has been true in the last several matches they've played. Novak's got the game to beat him, and I think the match is on HIS racquet, as they say. And while Rafa played very well today against Andy, the latter was clearly out of gas and off his game, so I wouldn't put much faith in that as a predictor either. I think it's going to come down to Novak's attitude/mentality----and no matter how the match ends I'm sure it will be a closely contested one!

 

[Front242]

Hard to tell with him as he's often put on an I'm dead face many times and then run around like a lunatic. I still think maybe he didn't drink enough water and got tired at the peak heat of the day so not really totally down to heat but related to it. Clearly drinking water helps keep anyone awake if they're feeling fatigued as he says he was and looked to be. Might've felt dizzy from not drinking enough between games. They said it hit 28C at the highest point which is a lot warmer than the rest of the tournament so maybe it was the dramatic jump from the cool 14C days the week before. Eventhough he's played in 40+ at Melbourne, the temperature doubled in this match from recent days and maybe they ('cos Gulbis looked a bit fatigued too towards the end) weren't acclimatized to it properly. I'm only guessing.

 

[Moxie]

Therefore, Rafa has just over a 68% win rate in Slam finals. Novak: 50%. Just sayin'…for those that like to quote betting odds as if they matter.

Neither are good %'s but so far Djoker's is abominable. He also holds no slams currently so he is in desperate need to show he can still play on the big stage.

Neither are good? I will never understand what curve you grade by Darth. Well, I guess it's Roger, so in fairness:

Fed: 17/24 = 70.8%
Rafa: 13/19 = 68.42%
Novak: 6/12 = 50%

But still, I wouldn't use "not good" or "abominable" for either Rafa or Nole.

 

[crystalfire]

Therefore, Rafa has just over a 68% win rate in Slam finals. Novak: 50%. Just sayin'…for those that like to quote betting odds as if they matter.

Neither are good %'s but so far Djoker's is abominable. He also holds no slams currently so he is in desperate need to show he can still play on the big stage.

Neither are good? I will never understand what curve you grade by Darth. Well, I guess it's Roger, so in fairness:

Fed: 17/24 = 70.8%
Rafa: 13/19 = 68.42%
Novak: 6/12 = 50%

But still, I wouldn't use "not good" or "abominable" for either Rafa or Nole.

idk what constitutes as good. i mean winning a slam in itself is a great achievement. so anything after that is already really good in my opinion. percentages are just there to give guys like a stat if anything

 

[DarthFed]

Therefore, Rafa has just over a 68% win rate in Slam finals. Novak: 50%. Just sayin'…for those that like to quote betting odds as if they matter.

Neither are good %'s but so far Djoker's is abominable. He also holds no slams currently so he is in desperate need to show he can still play on the big stage.

Neither are good? I will never understand what curve you grade by Darth. Well, I guess it's Roger, so in fairness:

Fed: 17/24 = 70.8%
Rafa: 13/19 = 68.42%
Novak: 6/12 = 50%

But still, I wouldn't use "not good" or "abominable" for either Rafa or Nole.

I wouldn't consider 70% rate in the finals as anything special is all. The greatest are supposed to step it up on the biggest stages and take the vast majority. Now 6-6 is awful, and Lendl was 8-11 which kept him from rising the ranks legacy wise.