2014 Roland Garros Final: Nadal vs. Djokovic

[Front242]

I wouldn't bet on this match in a million years.

Really? I'm surprised. I thought you enjoyed sports betting.

Used to and probably would except she'd kill me if she found out I was. A lot of money could've been made just by predicting number of sets in WTA matches but I did none this time round. Also I wouldn't enjoy betting on a final like this where the result is very questionable. Good chance of p1SS1ng money down the drain. Not a good match to bet on imo.

 

[brokenshoelace]

And keep in mind, I was the first one who initiated the "Nadal is not beating Djokovic" movement, a good month or so ago.

Therefore ...

Therefore, in spite of that, acting like this is a foregone conclusion and there's no chance Nadal wins is absolutely ridiculous. The nuance between a prediction that he'll lose and completely writing him off despite everything he's done in this tournament is obvious.

Your snark is quite misplaced.

 

[tented]

And keep in mind, I was the first one who initiated the "Nadal is not beating Djokovic" movement, a good month or so ago.

Therefore ...

Therefore, in spite of that, acting like this is a foregone conclusion and there's no chance Nadal wins is absolutely ridiculous. The nuance between a prediction that he'll lose and completely writing off despite everything he's done in this tournament is obvious.

Your snark is quite misplaced.

I wasn't being snarky. Trust me, you'd know it if I were. I honestly didn't know what you meant by that, so I asked.

 

[imjimmy]

The match will come down to Nadal's off forehand and his serve. Both have been pedestrian this entire year and particularly bad in the clay season. Nadal needs to vary up his serve out wide on the deuce court and down the middle in ad court to Novak's forehand. If he continues the predictable low pace backhand serving he WILL LOSE - maybe even easily. He cannot really fight for every one of his serving games and expect to beat Djokovic. The fact is, he needs cheap points and he isn't better than Djokovic off the ground. So the mphs and the placement on serve have to be vastly better.

The off-forehand is also the key. Nadal hasn't been attacking Novak's forehand as he did in the UsOpen 2013 for instance. He is also much less aggressive with that shot and uses the DTL and I/o forehands less than he should. All that will need to change unless Nadal plans to be on defense all through the match, run a lot and lose control of a majority of points.

Looking at the form in the clay season, one wouldn't expect Nadal to be very competitive in the final. BUT this is RG and this is Nadal. This is where he fights the hardest, and you write him off at your own peril.

At the same time, however. nothing lasts forever. History is beckoning. This match has a Wimbledon 2008 final feel.
The king is dead, long live the King.

Novak in 5.

 

[crystalfire]

The match will come down to Nadal's off forehand and his serve. Both have been pedestrian this entire year and particularly bad in the clay season. Nadal needs to vary up his serve out wide on the deuce court and down the middle in ad court to Novak's forehand. If he continues the predictable low pace backhand serving he WILL LOSE - maybe even easily. He cannot really fight for every one of his serving games and expect to beat Djokovic. The fact is, he needs cheap points and he isn't better than Djokovic off the ground. So the mphs and the placement on serve have to be vastly better.

The off-forehand is also the key. Nadal hasn't been attacking Novak's forehand as he did in the UsOpen 2013 for instance. He is also much less aggressive with that shot and uses the DTL and I/o forehands less than he should. All that will need to change unless Nadal plans to be on defense all through the match, run a lot and lose control of a majority of points.

Looking at the form in the clay season, one wouldn't expect Nadal to be very competitive in the final. BUT this is RG and this is Nadal. This is where he fights the hardest, and you write him off at your own peril.

At the same time, however. nothing lasts forever. History is beckoning. This match has a Wimbledon 2008 final feel.
The king is dead, long live the King.

Novak in 5.

his forehand looked pretty good to me today. he was dictating points and ripping it cc. idk how much of it had to do with murray.

 

[Front242]

Yeah his FH was very good today (especially his trademark DTL bananas) but Murray doesn't do anywhere near as much damage to Nadal's backhand as Djokovic does so therefore Nadal is able to hit more forehands than he does against Djokovic.

 

[DarthFed]

I'll be $2,500 richer if a certain hated left hander wins, not to name names. I think this is the year Djoker doesn't cave in, the only question in these matchups is if he can play clean enough throughout as he is almost always going to dictate play. I will go with Nole in 4 but if it goes 5 it is definitely Wafa.

Why did you make the bet? I hope you don't stand to lose a lot, Darth!

I hedge my bets. If the awful result happens at least I get something for it.

Next time GB makes the Super Bowl I might do something really really stupid

 

[Front242]

How much will you make if the awful result doesn't happen ?

 

[Fiero425]

Yeah his FH was very good today (especially his trademark DTL bananas) but Murray doesn't do anywhere near as much damage to Nadal's backhand as Djokovic does so therefore Nadal is able to hit more forehands than he does against Djokovic.

Murray plays too defensive, way behind the baseline! He can get away with that against most players, but he really needs to step in and attack the net more; esp. on clay! That's easy enough to say of course, but going down in flames like this today made no sense! He might as well have charged and tried to shorten the points! IT's absolutely idiotic for him to play like that against the top tier; Nole and Rafa especially! :nono uzzled :s

 

[nehmeth]

Picked Novak in 4. I believe he can do it.

That said, you can never count Rafa out until he hangs up his racquet. If Novak is going to win, Rafa is going to go down swinging. When he went on his run in 2011, Novak had belief and resolve. He believed he could win, but he also was willing to do whatever it took - to win. If he doesn't have that on Sunday, Ralf hoists his 9th.

 

[DarthFed]

How much will you make if the awful result doesn't happen ?

$0 but I will still be very happy. One step closer to the glue factory for Nads.

 

[Front242]

How much will you make if the awful result doesn't happen ?

$0 but I will still be very happy. One step closer to the glue factory for Nads.

Same as me when Le Sod beat the Nadster in 2009. I lost €2,000 'cos it was the only time I ever outright backed Nadal to win RG but when he lost I saw the better side of it also and made up the 2k in no time I'd happily wipe my ass with 2k now tonight if Djokovic and Halep win tomorrow. I'm thinking neither may happen though sadly.

 

[El Dude]

I like the 2008 Wimbeldon comparison, although to be fair Novak has had the overall edge on Rafa for the last three and a half years.

I voted Novak in 5.

 

[Front242]

How much will you make if the awful result doesn't happen ?

$0 but I will still be very happy. One step closer to the glue factory for Nads.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffin' glue

[video=youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=VmW-ScmGRMA[/video]

 

[rafanoy1992]

I pick Nadal in five tight sets. If Djokovic is gonna win this title, he has to try to win the match in four sets. Because if this match goes to a fifth set, then you have to give a slight edge to Nadal because he has won this title 8 times.

By the way, here's an interesting fact: Since 2012, Djokovic has lost the first set of the Major finals he has played in. His record during those finals is 2-4. (2-0 at AO and 0-4 at the other majors). In fact, he has lost the first set of Slam final in 9 of his 12 Slam final appearances. The only time he did not lose the first set was in 2011. Clearly he needs to win the first set so he doesn't spend too much energy clawing back.

Here's another interesting fact: If Djokovic wins, he would be the first male player in the Open Era to beat the same player in all four Slam finals. That's a pretty remarkable feat considering this all started almost exactly three years ago.

 

[Moxie]

I went with Rafa in 4 because I have a birthday lunch out of town on Sunday, and I can't hang around for 5. :nono :snigger

But seriously, people keep saying Rafa will likely lift his level, and he already did today. This from Murray after the match, (via NYTimes): “Today he was hitting extremely hard, extremely heavy, returning well, and was hitting it well on the run….You can go out there with, you know, all the tactics in the world, but when he’s hitting the ball like that, very difficult to hit the ball where you want to.”

Additionally, Novak decided to get hot and tired, (he says) and frustrated against Gulbis, for basically no reason. He won't be able to afford to do this against Nadal, who will give him plenty more reason.

Realistically, I know this could go either way, and has a very good chance to go 5 sets. But in the mental battle, Rafa won points today, in terms of his confidence, and Nole lost some, demonstrating that the moment can get to him. Gulbis said (also via NYT): “It was not a good quality tennis at all,” Gulbis said. “It was just grinding and just trying to put the ball in. Not me, not he felt the ball good. You know, it was really slow pace. It was a struggle out there.” If he can gift a set to Gulbis, who felt like he had very little game today, nervous in his first Slam SF, I think he's even more vulnerable to the same mental lapses against Nadal in the final at RG.

I suppose I'm not breaking any ground to say it will be a mental and physical battle.

 

[ftan]

Even though I don't want it, but I think it will be Rafa in 5..it will be a dog fight

 

[rafanoy1992]

By the way, this will be Nadal's 20th Slam final appearance. He is the second man in the Open Era to reach at least 20 Slam finals (Federer did it during 2009 Wimbledon). Also, Federer and Nadal are now 1st and 2nd when it comes to Slam Finals appearances. If Nadal can win two more Slams, then Federer and Nadal would be 1st and 2nd in Slam titles.

And if Djokovic wins, we will have THREE Career Slam winners playing at the same time. It is pretty remarkable stuff from these players.

 

[Moxie]

Therefore, Rafa has just over a 68% win rate in Slam finals. Novak: 50%. Just sayin'…for those that like to quote betting odds as if they matter.

 

[crystalfire]

does anyone know what actually happened to djoker in 3rd set. i cant find any legit news sources describing it. most say his level dropped but i thought i heard somewhere he got tired??