Will Novak pass Rafa?

Moxie

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
43,766
Reactions
14,934
Points
113
By the way folks, I just think when I see the phrase “goat race” being used with regards to the Big 3, that it refers only to this era. I don’t apply it across the ages to include players of the past. Why? Because I think there’s huge recency bias at play, where people are counting up masters series titles as proof of goatee-ness, and Olympic gold medals, and it seems we make up new criteria every generation to defend the current generation against the past.

Almost all of the proofs for the current generation weren’t even considered as criteria for being goat in Bjorn Borgs day, and a lot of the tournaments that count towards it now didn’t even exist, or were irrelevant...
You're correct, of course, that it's really just a short-hand for "Big 3 Slams Race" or whatever we should really call it. Because it's not even going to determine a winner between the 3 of them, much less for all of history...as we can see even here, it will just keep getting debated forever. They're too close in terms of accomplishments and talents. Say Rafa finishes with 21 and Roger 20. Is that going to make the Federer fans concede that, in fact, Rafa is the greater tennis player? I won't be holding my breath for that.
 

Nadalfan2013

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Aug 23, 2018
Messages
2,768
Reactions
1,426
Points
113
GOATdal is 10-4 in slams vs Federer and 10-6 in slams vs Djokovic.

How can Federer be the goat if he is down 4-10 vs Nadal and 6-11 vs Djokovic?

Federer couldn’t for example beat GOATdal anywhere in slams between the 2007 WB and the 2017 AO that’s a whole 10 years, give me a break!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Andy22

britbox

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
27,436
Reactions
6,262
Points
113
Location
Gold Coast, Australia
By the way folks, I just think when I see the phrase “goat race” being used with regards to the Big 3, that it refers only to this era. I don’t apply it across the ages to include players of the past. Why? Because I think there’s huge recency bias at play, where people are counting up masters series titles as proof of goatee-ness, and Olympic gold medals, and it seems we make up new criteria every generation to defend the current generation against the past.

Almost all of the proofs for the current generation weren’t even considered as criteria for being goat in Bjorn Borgs day, and a lot of the tournaments that count towards it now didn’t even exist, or were irrelevant...
This.

Once Rafa passes Roger, I'm going to change my formula and declare Pancho Gonzalez to be the GOAT. :partying-face:
 

Jelenafan

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Messages
3,687
Reactions
5,040
Points
113
Location
California, USA
This.

Once Rafa passes Roger, I'm going to change my formula and declare Pancho Gonzalez to be the GOAT. :partying-face:

Pete Sampras was the #1 YE ranked player 6 consecutive years, a record in the Open era.

Pre Open Era, Pancho Gonzales was by some accounts the #1 Professional 8 years, 7 of them consecutively.

My favorite Pancho Gonzales story how when Open tennis finally came in 1968, he was 40 years old, semiretired , not completely in shape , and in the slow red clay of Roland Garros (he was more a serve and volleyer) upset the defending champion Roy Emerson in the quarterfinals.
 
Last edited:

Moxie

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
43,766
Reactions
14,934
Points
113
This.

Once Rafa passes Roger, I'm going to change my formula and declare Pancho Gonzalez to be the GOAT. :partying-face:
I seem to remember, a million years ago, that you said the H2H between Nadal and Federer would matter when and if they ever tied in Majors. You still stand by that? I know it's puny that I remember this, but remember back in the day how hard we all fought about it? I've been waiting a long time for this.
 

Fiero425

The GOAT
Joined
Jul 23, 2013
Messages
11,531
Reactions
2,587
Points
113
Location
Chicago, IL
Website
fiero4251.blogspot.com
Pete Sampras was the #1 YE ranked player 6 consecutive years, a record in the Open era.

Pre Open Era, Pancho Gonzales was by some accounts the #1 Professional 8 years, 7 of them consecutively.

My favorite Pancho Gonzales story how when Open tennis finally came in 1968, he was 40 years old, semiretired , not completely in shape , and in the slow red clay of Roland Garros (he was more a serve and volleyer) upset the defending champion Roy Emerson in the quarterfinals.

Back then tennis was all about skill IMO! Back in the day, players could be alcoholics who chain-smoked! In doubles it was even more obvious physical prowess wasn't needed to compete! There were plenty of old men with pot bellies winning! In singles, in the 80's you could find a few that remained in the top 40 without really working that hard! :lol6:
 

Moxie

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
43,766
Reactions
14,934
Points
113
Back then tennis was all about skill IMO! Back in the day, players could be alcoholics who chain-smoked! In doubles it was even more obvious physical prowess wasn't needed to compete! There were plenty of old men with pot bellies winning! In singles, in the 80's you could find a few that remained in the top 40 without really working that hard! :lol6:
That makes it sound less like skill and more like the guy who could show up less-hungover on the day.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Jelenafan

britbox

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
27,436
Reactions
6,262
Points
113
Location
Gold Coast, Australia
I seem to remember, a million years ago, that you said the H2H between Nadal and Federer would matter when and if they ever tied in Majors. You still stand by that? I know it's puny that I remember this, but remember back in the day how hard we all fought about it? I've been waiting a long time for this.
As it stands right now - I'd personally (begrudgingly) give the nod to Nadal, but it's virtually a wash, so there will be no consensus. If Djokovic ties, he'll have a better overall record than both, when H2Hs, Masters, Weeks at 1 are taken into account.

It's time to start laying the foundations of the "Pancho for GOAT" campaign. :).
 

britbox

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
27,436
Reactions
6,262
Points
113
Location
Gold Coast, Australia
@Moxie,

To celebrate the launch of the new campaign. I've produced a flyer for you to print out and distribute around your neighbourhood.

pancho.jpg
 

Jelenafan

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Messages
3,687
Reactions
5,040
Points
113
Location
California, USA
That makes it sound less like skill and more like the guy who could show up less-hungover on the day.
:face-with-tears-of-joy:

Though actually Fiero has a point, with wood rackets, power wasn't everything. You couldn't blow an opponent off the court with a serve or power forehand the way even players ranked #250 can do today. Skill with a racket, strategy and point construction mattered. So potbellied tennis players here and there with enough experience/saavy could muddle through and make a living.

I grew up idolizing Gonzales even though I confess I never saw him play live. Pancho was simply a FREAK. I think he was still winning matches on the pro level at age 44/45. Could still best the #1 player in the world (and GOAT) Rod Laver after Laver had completed the Grand Slam while in his early 40's. We are talking beating Laver in frigging five set matches. :clap:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Moxie and Fiero425

Moxie

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
43,766
Reactions
14,934
Points
113
As it stands right now - I'd personally (begrudgingly) give the nod to Nadal, but it's virtually a wash, so there will be no consensus. If Djokovic ties, he'll have a better overall record than both, when H2Hs, Masters, Weeks at 1 are taken into account.

It's time to start laying the foundations of the "Pancho for GOAT" campaign. :).
Oh, I just had to tweak your tail. I've long said there can't be one GOAT and I stand by that, even if Rafa gets the most Majors or whatever. I agree with Kieran that there are too many variables across the years. And even in this era, I think the Big 3 will just be debated forever. They're all great in different ways, and they've made this a Golden Age for men's tennis. I know it seemed for a long while that it would be Roger, and I know why his gorgeous tennis made it feel to his fans that it ought to be him, but we ended up with 3 ATG's in one era, so there it is.
 

Moxie

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
43,766
Reactions
14,934
Points
113
:face-with-tears-of-joy:

Though actually Fiero has a point, with wood rackets, power wasn't everything. You couldn't blow an opponent off the court with a serve or power forehand the way even players ranked #250 can do today. Skill with a racket, strategy and point construction mattered. So potbellied tennis players here and there with enough experience/saavy could muddle through and make a living.

I grew up idolizing Gonzales even though I confess I never saw him play live. Pancho was simply a FREAK. I think he was still winning matches on the pro level at age 44/45. Could still best the #1 player in the world (and GOAT) Rod Laver after Laver had completed the Grand Slam while in his early 40's. We are talking beating Laver in frigging five set matches. :clap:
If you've never read it, and can still find a copy, do read "A Handful of Summers" by Gordon Forbes. It's charming, and it gives a real perspective on what amateur tennis was like. $100 under the table. Working in sports shops and hardware stores in the off-season. This, and as you say, the skill to work with the wobbly wand made of wood and gut...this, to me, is why there will never be one GOAT.
 

Jelenafan

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Messages
3,687
Reactions
5,040
Points
113
Location
California, USA
Oh, I just had to tweak your tail. I've long said there can't be one GOAT and I stand by that, even if Rafa gets the most Majors or whatever. I agree with Kieran that there are too many variables across the years. And even in this era, I think the Big 3 will just be debated forever. They're all great in different ways, and they've made this a Golden Age for men's tennis. I know it seemed for a long while that it would be Roger, and I know why his gorgeous tennis made it feel to his fans that it ought to be him, but we ended up with 3 ATG's in one era, so there it is.

I agree it's a 3 headed monster.

However, Here's a sobering thought. After the shutdown, Novak won 2 Masters and made the finals of a Major. Rafa with one tourney prep won a Major. Novak wasn't really challenged in his Masters and Rafa arguably had his best FO ever. It seems both guys didn't skip a beat.

Could the fact that they had a noninjury 6 month sabbatical from competitive tennis, followed by at most a 2 month resumed season prolong their tennis careers by giving their bodies and minds a rest?

AS it is, Rafa has won 6 Majors since turning 30 and Novak 5.
To put it in perspective, 6 is the total Majors of Stefan Edberg and Boris Becker. It's 1 shy of Johnny Mac's Major total.

Novak is getting more years at #1 with 6 for open Record with Sampras, and it's only a matter of time until he gets total weeks at #1. Rafa, well the odds of him building on his 20 Slams look good, even if in the worst case scenario just being competitive at the FO for the next 3-4 years.

So we wait until their careers are over, but it could be that if they go on strong for at least 2 or 3 more years the 3 headed beast shrinks to a Dynamic Duo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fiero425

Moxie

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
43,766
Reactions
14,934
Points
113
I agree it's a 3 headed monster.

However, Here's a sobering thought. After the shutdown, Novak won 2 Masters and made the finals of a Major. Rafa with one tourney prep won a Major. Novak wasn't really challenged in his Masters and Rafa arguably had his best FO ever. It seems both guys didn't skip a beat.

Could the fact that they had a noninjury 6 month sabbatical from competitive tennis, followed by at most a 2 month resumed season prolong their tennis careers by giving their bodies and minds a rest?

AS it is, Rafa has won 6 Majors since turning 30 and Novak 5.
To put it in perspective, 6 is the total Majors of Stefan Edberg and Boris Becker. It's 1 shy of Johnny Mac's Major total.

Novak is getting more years at #1 with 6 for open Record with Sampras, and it's only a matter of time until he gets total weeks at #1. Rafa, well the odds of him building on his 20 Slams look good, even if in the worst case scenario just being competitive at the FO for the next 3-4 years.

So we wait until their careers are over, but it could be that if they go on strong for at least 2 or 3 more years the 3 headed beast shrinks to a Dynamic Duo.
All interesting points, but you'll never get Roger out the argument.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rafanoy1992

rafanoy1992

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 15, 2013
Messages
4,573
Reactions
3,216
Points
113
All interesting points, but you'll never get Roger out the argument.

I agree, Moxie! As much as Nadal and Djokovic are playing at a high level right now, what Federer did from 2003 to 2019 is something special and it is really hard and crazy not to put him in the "GOAT" debates.

I mean every time I read Federer's stats across the board I always say, "Damn, these numbers are crazy!"
 

El Dude

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
10,193
Reactions
5,905
Points
113
With 20 Slams in the books (and counting), Rafa still has two significant problems to being crowned for GOAT: 100+ fewer weeks at #1 than Roger and Novak, and no YEC. The latter is forgivable if he surpasses the other two in Slam count by at least 2-3 and accrues another 50+ weeks at #1. But as much as Slam titles are the sexy (and most important) marker of greatness, weeks at #1 aren't far behind - they measure overall dominance in a way that Slam titles don't fully account for. YECs matter, too, but aren't deal-breakers.

Novak's only problem is Slam count. Given the overall strength of his resume, especially considering that he's a lock to surpass Roger in weeks at #1 and may end up with 350 or more, I think all he really needs to do is equal the leader to earn the crown.

Roger will likely never be considered lone GOAT again, unless he wins another Slam and does so in glorious fashion - say, beating one of the other two en route. But he'd also need the other guys to slow down, like immediately.

Barring any of the above happening, it will likely always be debatable. Chances are Rafa isn't going to get the necessary weeks and YEC, and Novak probably won't surpass the other two in Slam titles, so there will be Fedal champions who will use that against him. Even if Roger somehow manages to win another one, he'd need the other guys to stop winning Slams soon, and that doesn't seem likely.

So we could imagine a scenario where Rafa finishes with 22-23 Slams, ~100 titles, and fewer than 250 weeks at #1, and no YECs. Novak finishes with 20-21 Slams, ~100 titles, and 350 weeks. Roger finishes with 20 Slams, 110 titles, and 310 weeks. Even factoring in head-to-heads, peer dominance, and other factors, it isn't a clear call. Their final resumes are likely going to be close, and as long as it is close there's going to be disagreement.
 

Jelenafan

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Messages
3,687
Reactions
5,040
Points
113
Location
California, USA
With 20 Slams in the books (and counting), Rafa still has two significant problems to being crowned for GOAT: 100+ fewer weeks at #1 than Roger and Novak, and no YEC. The latter is forgivable if he surpasses the other two in Slam count by at least 2-3 and accrues another 50+ weeks at #1. But as much as Slam titles are the sexy (and most important) marker of greatness, weeks at #1 aren't far behind - they measure overall dominance in a way that Slam titles don't fully account for. YECs matter, too, but aren't deal-breakers.

Novak's only problem is Slam count. Given the overall strength of his resume, especially considering that he's a lock to surpass Roger in weeks at #1 and may end up with 350 or more, I think all he really needs to do is equal the leader to earn the crown.

Roger will likely never be considered lone GOAT again, unless he wins another Slam and does so in glorious fashion - say, beating one of the other two en route. But he'd also need the other guys to slow down, like immediately.

Barring any of the above happening, it will likely always be debatable. Chances are Rafa isn't going to get the necessary weeks and YEC, and Novak probably won't surpass the other two in Slam titles, so there will be Fedal champions who will use that against him. Even if Roger somehow manages to win another one, he'd need the other guys to stop winning Slams soon, and that doesn't seem likely.

So we could imagine a scenario where Rafa finishes with 22-23 Slams, ~100 titles, and fewer than 250 weeks at #1, and no YECs. Novak finishes with 20-21 Slams, ~100 titles, and 350 weeks. Roger finishes with 20 Slams, 110 titles, and 310 weeks. Even factoring in head-to-heads, peer dominance, and other factors, it isn't a clear call. Their final resumes are likely going to be close, and as long as it is close there's going to be disagreement.


Great points El Dude, however, I will say , doesn't ending YE #1 trump who had more weeks #1 during a calendar year? After all , Novak may still trail Federer technically on Weeks #1 but he's already passed him with 6 YE#1's (counting this year) something only Pistol Pete managed in the Open Era. So in that sense I would rate Novak higher than Roger already on that front.

Ditto If Rafa can snag at least one more YE #1 to get to 6, in some ways that surpasses Rogers weeks simply because he has one more year then Roger's 5.

Personally I think Rafa getting to 5 USO's is better than getting the 2nd AO simply because he then ties the record, along with Sampras, Connor and Federer of most USO wins in the Open Era.

I still think Roger's most impressive stat that the other 2 guys won't match is 3 years with 3 Majors won. 2004, 2006, 2007.

Aren't stats fun?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Moxie and Fiero425

El Dude

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
10,193
Reactions
5,905
Points
113
Great points El Dude, however, I will say , doesn't ending YE #1 trump who had more weeks #1 during a calendar year? After all , Novak may still trail Federer technically on Weeks #1 but he's already passed him with 6 YE#1's (counting this year) something only Pistol Pete managed in the Open Era. So in that sense I would rate Novak higher than Roger already on that front.

Ditto If Rafa can snag at least one more YE #1 to get to 6, in some ways that surpasses Rogers weeks simply because he has one more year then Roger's 5.

Personally I think Rafa getting to 5 USO's is better than getting the 2nd AO simply because he then ties the record, along with Sampras, Connor and Federer of most USO wins in the Open Era.

I still think Roger's most impressive stat that the other 2 guys won't match is 3 years with 3 Majors won. 2004, 2006, 2007.

Aren't stats fun?

While stats are objective measurements, ultimately how we weigh them is subjective. YE #1 sounds flashy, but I think weeks is more meaningful. A year is, after all, rather arbitrary. On the other hand, I suppose you could combine the two to get two sides of the same picture.

Of course even weeks at #1 has its problems. Few folks would suggest that Roger Federer wasn't the best player of 2017 though he finished #2 due to skipping clay season, and of course Andy Murray won the 2016 YE #1 largely through an approach of quantity over quality. Rafa lost a lot of weeks at #1 due to injury--especially in 2009-10--even though he was the best player on tour during that time. Etc.

Again, entirely subjective, but in my mind you could categorize accomplishments in tiers, depending upon how primary they are to measuring overall greatness:

Primary: Slam titles, #1 rankings (weeks/YE).
Secondary: Overall titles, YECs.
Tertiary: Slam results (other than wins), top 5/10 rankings, Masters titles, head-to-heads, etc.

And then there are things that don't fit into any tier, like the feat you mentioned that Roger accomplished, or Novak's 2015-16 stretch, or Rafa's 13+ Roland Garros titles.

It just isn't an exact science. We can build arguments and create formulas, but ultimately we have to rely upon our own judgement. It may sound like a cop-out, but I think they are--and will be considered, historically speaking--coeval GOATs, almost no matter what happens. They all reigned supreme for a time, all dominated their peers, and all have their own unique flavors of greatness. For instance, I would say that Roger stands alone in terms of peer dominance - he dominated his own generation unlike anyone else. Rafa has his clay dominance and unparalleled level in clutch situations, and Novak probably reached the highest level of all, virtually unbeatable at his very best.

All that said, accomplishments stand on their own. Slam titles are objective - the player who finishes with the most (my bet being on Rafa, with Novak and Roger about equal) gets bragging rights for the most important stat of the Open Era. Weeks at #1, YE #1s, titles, etc. They all stand on their own, and all three are going to end their careers with some truly remarkable accomplishments and the three most impressive resumes of the Open Era.
 

Jelenafan

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Messages
3,687
Reactions
5,040
Points
113
Location
California, USA
While stats are objective measurements, ultimately how we weigh them is subjective. YE #1 sounds flashy, but I think weeks is more meaningful. A year is, after all, rather arbitrary. On the other hand, I suppose you could combine the two to get two sides of the same picture.

I think that's what makes Pistol Pete's accomplishment so impressive, he had both 6 YE's #1 ranking consecutively AND week in and week out he was ranked #1 for most of that period.
 

Nadalfan2013

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Aug 23, 2018
Messages
2,768
Reactions
1,426
Points
113
While stats are objective measurements, ultimately how we weigh them is subjective. YE #1 sounds flashy, but I think weeks is more meaningful. A year is, after all, rather arbitrary. On the other hand, I suppose you could combine the two to get two sides of the same picture.

Of course even weeks at #1 has its problems. Few folks would suggest that Roger Federer wasn't the best player of 2017 though he finished #2 due to skipping clay season, and of course Andy Murray won the 2016 YE #1 largely through an approach of quantity over quality. Rafa lost a lot of weeks at #1 due to injury--especially in 2009-10--even though he was the best player on tour during that time. Etc.

Again, entirely subjective, but in my mind you could categorize accomplishments in tiers, depending upon how primary they are to measuring overall greatness:

Primary: Slam titles, #1 rankings (weeks/YE).
Secondary: Overall titles, YECs.
Tertiary: Slam results (other than wins), top 5/10 rankings, Masters titles, head-to-heads, etc.

And then there are things that don't fit into any tier, like the feat you mentioned that Roger accomplished, or Novak's 2015-16 stretch, or Rafa's 13+ Roland Garros titles.

It just isn't an exact science. We can build arguments and create formulas, but ultimately we have to rely upon our own judgement. It may sound like a cop-out, but I think they are--and will be considered, historically speaking--coeval GOATs, almost no matter what happens. They all reigned supreme for a time, all dominated their peers, and all have their own unique flavors of greatness. For instance, I would say that Roger stands alone in terms of peer dominance - he dominated his own generation unlike anyone else. Rafa has his clay dominance and unparalleled level in clutch situations, and Novak probably reached the highest level of all, virtually unbeatable at his very best.

All that said, accomplishments stand on their own. Slam titles are objective - the player who finishes with the most (my bet being on Rafa, with Novak and Roger about equal) gets bragging rights for the most important stat of the Open Era. Weeks at #1, YE #1s, titles, etc. They all stand on their own, and all three are going to end their careers with some truly remarkable accomplishments and the three most impressive resumes of the Open Era.

No mention of Olympics of course, I wonder why since all Big 3 have put it up there with the slams... Surely it merits at the minimum a mention in the secondary category. Maybe you will add it if Djokovic and Federer win it. :rolleyes:

The weeks at number one is nowhere near close the slam record get over it. The only reason why some people are now hyping it up is because it’s obvious that Nadal will end up with the slam record so Federer and Djokovic fans have to fall back on something else. It’s important but nowhere near the slams, not even close. :rolleyes:
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Fiero425