Will Novak pass Rafa?

[Nadalfan2013]

Would you give it to him if he wins next years AO to make his 9th in Oz?

I believe Carreno Busta has destroyed Djokovic forever. I don’t think he will ever bounce back.

 

[Bonaca]

I would at least put him in co-goat status when passing maestro in most ever time at the top spot of the sport!
For now it’s Roger.

 

[calitennis127]

Anyways the real question is how can Djokovic be the greatest hardcourt player yet with only 3 titles at the biggest hardcourt tournament in history the US open? Lol

Because total pussies like you would not let him get his 4th in 2020 over a mild, very innocent accident. Lol indeed.

 

[calitennis127]

I believe Carreno Busta has destroyed Djokovic forever. I don’t think he will ever bounce back.

I believe you might just see Djokovic take it to your boy on the clay courts in the coming weeks. I also believe you're an idiot for thinking Djokovic will not "bounce back" when he just did something that your favorite player could never do - go undefeated for such a remarkable length of time. Nadal doesn't have the same kind of versatility and overall talent to pull off such a feat.

 

[El Dude]

El Dude, this isn’t directed at you, but after his first injury in 09 (and Even before) critics have been writing off Rafa for a whole slew of reasons. Been hearing for over 10 years he’s over. Done. Rafa is finished. Yes his body has taken some blows but this year I do think the 5 month sabbatical will be interesting how Rafa performs.

Clearly Rafa hasn’t got his old explosiveness but he’s made up for it in other ways through the years.

Obviously Theim is a real factor for the French Open, but a relatively injury free Rafa is still going to be the favorite. Of course it’s not a given , just like Novak was the favorite here but he probably would have still have had to go
through Theim ( who came so close at the AO) or Medvedev.

Agreed on all accounts. I thought Rafa was done after 2016 (Roger too), but 2017 was such a surprise. Not writing him off, just pointing out that 2020 is a very different context, and I don't think we can follow the same logic as in years past. Not only is there a wildcard factor, but Thiem and perhaps others are closing the gap.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

I believe you might just see Djokovic take it to your boy on the clay courts in the coming weeks. I also believe you're an idiot for thinking Djokovic will not "bounce back" when he just did something that your favorite player could never do - go undefeated for such a remarkable length of time. Nadal doesn't have the same kind of versatility and overall talent to pull off such a feat.

That undefeated run was pre-Busta... I am talking now about post-Busta.

 

[rafanoy1992]

A Rafa-Novak final would be grand. Unlike 2015, Rafa is in good enough form that a Novak victory would be well-earned, and Novak is in good enough form that Rafa would actually be challenged by him. It would also be the most important slam for Novak to win to pass Rafa, as not only would he be adding to his tally, but he would be taking away a win from Rafa.

That said, I think it is a foregone conclusion that Rafa passes Roger, and Novak passes Rafa. It is the way of things: records are broken. I just think that Rafa really wants to pass Roger and will do what it takes to stay fit enough to do so, and likewise with Novak. So we'll probably end with:

Novak 22
Rafa 21
Roger 20

Yes. When it is all said and done, it will be Nole 22, Roger 21 and Rafa 21.

Looking at this right now especially after what happened this year and at the US Open, if Djokovic does not win the French Open next month, then I do not see him winning 5 more slams after the age 33.5 years old. In addition, with the emergence of the young guns and Thiem, his opportunities will be get harder and tighter. Now, he can still surpass Nadal maybe even Federer, even if he does not win RG, but it all depends on whether or not Nadal does not win RG next month or Nadal does not win anymore slam period (highly unlikely).

As for Nadal, IF he is able to win RG next month, then he is a very good chance of reaching 21 slams in 2021. Now, he still will be in a good chance to at least tie Federer even if he does not win RG next month. But it also depends on whether or not Djokovic wins RG.

For Federer, it is all about Wimbledon and maybe the Australian Open next year. If he does not win 2021 Wimbledon, then he will be stuck at 20 slams.

 

[Jelenafan]

No.

 

[calitennis127]

Looking at this right now especially after what happened this year and at the US Open, if Djokovic does not win the French Open next month, then I do not see him winning 5 more slams after the age 33.5 years old. In addition, with the emergence of the young guns and Thiem, his opportunities will be get harder and tighter.

This is absolutely ridiculous. Djokovic just went 26-0 to start a year, won the Australian Open and Cincinnati, had a BS loss that wasn't even a loss in terms of tennis played, and is in peak form physically, playing the best tennis of his life. Yet people like you are still talking about how he can't win Slams at his age? That is absolutely ridiculous. He is leaps and bounds ahead of most of the field, and none of the "young guns" has even come close to proving that they can win Slams against the Big 3 at the later stages aside from a couple tight matches like Medvedev against Nadal and Thiem against Djokovic.

Djokovic will be in the mix for Slams for the next 5 years at least and has an entirely legitimate chance of winning 25. He is far and away the best player right now at the Australian Open, and the co-best player at Wimbledon with Federer. And it's not even close. At the French Open he is fully capable of winning and it's more likely that Nadal will fall off in the near future than Djokovic. At the US Open, Djokovic has a lot left to prove and will be motivated and focused in the years to come.

Most of all, his health and fitness are in peak form, and he looks as good in that regard as he ever has. He is only getting started with the next phase of his dominance. And the "young guns" simply do not have what it takes to beat him at the Slams in this mode. The only one I could see doing so in the Slams is Medvedev, but Medvedev better win one soon (as in this week) or else he is going to start having the choker label follow him around.

That said, it is beyond ridiculous that people are still focusing on age, even after being so dead wrong about Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal in that regard going back to 2010/2011. Didn't people learn anything from that? What about Wawrinka winning two Slams at an age when everyone said he would be past his prime? What about Federer winning two Slams at age 35? What about Nadal at age 33 beating a 23-year-old in 5 sets at the US Open? What about Djokovic going 26-0 between ages 32 and 33?

Why are all of you still prating about age in the traditional sense? How much contrary info will you have to see before you re-examine your assumptions? I feel like I am talking to idiot left-wing journalists about the Russian collusion hoax. Do facts not matter? Do piles of contrary evidence mean nothing?

 

[rafanoy1992]

This is absolutely ridiculous. Djokovic just went 26-0 to start a year, won the Australian Open and Cincinnati, had a BS loss that wasn't even a loss in terms of tennis played, and is in peak form physically, playing the best tennis of his life. Yet people like you are still talking about how he can't win Slams at his age? That is absolutely ridiculous. He is leaps and bounds ahead of most of the field, and none of the "young guns" has even come close to proving that they can win Slams against the Big 3 at the later stages aside from a couple tight matches like Medvedev against Nadal and Thiem against Djokovic.

Djokovic will be in the mix for Slams for the next 5 years at least and has an entirely legitimate chance of winning 25. He is far and away the best player right now at the Australian Open, and the co-best player at Wimbledon with Federer. And it's not even close. At the French Open he is fully capable of winning and it's more likely that Nadal will fall off in the near future than Djokovic. At the US Open, Djokovic has a lot left to prove and will be motivated and focused in the years to come.

Most of all, his health and fitness are in peak form, and he looks as good in that regard as he ever has. He is only getting started with the next phase of his dominance. And the "young guns" simply do not have what it takes to beat him at the Slams in this mode. The only one I could see doing so in the Slams is Medvedev, but Medvedev better win one soon (as in this week) or else he is going to start having the choker label follow him around.

That said, it is beyond ridiculous that people are still focusing on age, even after being so dead wrong about Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal in that regard going back to 2010/2011. Didn't people learn anything from that? What about Wawrinka winning two Slams at an age when everyone said he would be past his prime? What about Federer winning two Slams at age 35? What about Nadal at age 33 beating a 23-year-old in 5 sets at the US Open? What about Djokovic going 26-0 between ages 32 and 33?

Why are all of you still prating about age in the traditional sense? How much contrary info will you have to see before you re-examine your assumptions? I feel like I am talking to idiot left-wing journalists about the Russian collusion hoax. Do facts not matter? Do piles of contrary evidence mean nothing?

You are right, Cali. If Djokovic can win slams after the age of 33.5, then I can see Nadal definitely win slams at the age 34 and later. That means Djokovic will not surpass Nadal in the slam count.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

I can’t wait for the clay season

 

[GameSetAndMath]

bump

 

[rafanoy1992]

Here's an updated slam titles after today:

Nadal: 20 slams
Djokovic: 17 slams

Basically, like the end of 2018 and 2019, 2020 will end in which Nadal is ahead of Djokovic by 3 slams. At this point, it will be hard for Djokovic to surpass Nadal. I can still see him at least tying Nadal (either at 20 or 21), but surpassing Nadal is a very tall order at this point!

Djokovic literally has to either go 4-0 or 5-1 in slams in order for him to surpass Nadal at the slam count. And at age 33.5 years old, that's both mental and physical tall order even for him.

As for Nadal, if he can somehow win 1 more (possibly 2) slam, he is set in terms of holding the GS record over Federer and Djokovic.

 

[Kieran]

Looking at the OP, Rafa was 4 slams ahead after Wimbledon 2018, and since then there have been 8 slams, with Rafa playing only 7, but the lead is at 3 slams now. This is more than two years later, and we’re now in ravaged Covid time, so Novak may catch him, but the likelihood is that Rafa will add maybe one more, leaving Novak to have to win 5.

He’s won 2 of the previous 5 slams. It just seems mathematically tight for him now, especially that he worked so hard to gain one (or both) of the USO and FO, and gained nothing but the sight of a resurgent Rafa, and key victory for Thiem in New York...

 

[rafanoy1992]

Looking at the OP, Rafa was 4 slams ahead after Wimbledon 2018, and since then there have been 8 slams, with Rafa playing only 7, but the lead is at 3 slams now. This is more than two years later, and we’re now in ravaged Covid time, so Novak may catch him, but the likelihood is that Rafa will add maybe one more, leaving Novak to have to win 5.

He’s won 2 of the previous 5 slams. It just seems mathematically tight for him now, especially that he worked so hard to gain one (or both) of the USO and FO, and gained nothing but the sight of a resurgent Rafa, and key victory for Thiem in New York...

You are right on, Kieran!

Also, just think of this way:

Entering 2017, Nadal was 30.5 years old and was 3 slams behind Federer (14 < 17). He won 6 slam titles from 2017 Roland Garros to 2020 Roland Garros and he is currently 34 years old. You would think that winning 6 slams between 14 slams will allow Nadal to surpass Federer, but in reality winning those 6 slams only allowed Nadal to tie Federer (it's still a great accomplishment).

This is basically what Djokovic is facing entering 2021 season. Part of the problem is that he will be 33.5 years old entering 2021 AO (three years older than when Nadal entered the 2017 AO). In addition, another problem is that Nadal can still win 1 or 2 more slams before Nadal retires which means Djokovic has to win either 5 to 6 slams after the age of 33.5 years old just to surpass Nadal in the slam count.

And if 2020 GS season is an indication, it be very tough for Djokovic because those nagging injuries he has will continue to show during Grand Slam play and it will be more frequent as he gets older.

 

[Jelenafan]

OMG, with all this talk about Majors needed to fend off others, counting what will be needed to keep the record, and what others may do and their creeping age, etc, we all sound like, dare I say it.........

Federer Fans??

 

[Fiero425]

OMG, with all this talk about Majors needed to fend off others, counting what will be needed to keep the record, and what others may do and their creeping age, etc, we all sound like, dare I say it.........

Federer Fans??

Like Rafa fans obsessing over the FO, Fed fans have to keep reassuring themselves; sorta like those sickos trying to rationalize "a Trump!"

 

[Moxie]

OMG, with all this talk about Majors needed to fend off others, counting what will be needed to keep the record, and what others may do and their creeping age, etc, we all sound like, dare I say it.........

Federer Fans??

I know you're making a funny, but Federer fans thought, for years, that he would coast to GOAT status, by the end. Nadal was an irritant, and Novak became their wing-man, in terms of tamping Nadal down. Then it all went pear-shaped. Novak became a legit threat, and Nadal didn't quit, even against Novak. I've been too many years saying that Roger is done winning Majors, and been proven wrong, so I won't go there until he retires. I get the calculations. But the one thing we know, and as it was advertised, Sunday was big in the GOAT race, and Nadal came up aces.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I know you're making a funny, but Federer fans thought, for years, that he would coast to GOAT status, by the end. Nadal was an irritant, and Novak became their wing-man, in terms of tamping Nadal down. Then it all went pear-shaped. Novak became a legit threat, and Nadal didn't quit, even against Novak. I've been too many years saying that Roger is done winning Majors, and been proven wrong, so I won't go there until he retires. I get the calculations. But the one thing we know, and as it was advertised, Sunday was big in the GOAT race, and Nadal came up aces.

I will just play a little bit of devil's advocate here, Moxie I think Nadal winning last Sunday was BIG in terms of the Grand Slam title "race." Now, let's just say Nadal wins another Australian Open (it will be his 2nd AO title AND 2nd Career Slam), then I will say that it will be big in the GOAT race

Either way, cheers to 2021, Moxie and to my fellow Rafa fans!

 

[Kieran]

By the way folks, I just think when I see the phrase “goat race” being used with regards to the Big 3, that it refers only to this era. I don’t apply it across the ages to include players of the past. Why? Because I think there’s huge recency bias at play, where people are counting up masters series titles as proof of goatee-ness, and Olympic gold medals, and it seems we make up new criteria every generation to defend the current generation against the past.

Almost all of the proofs for the current generation weren’t even considered as criteria for being goat in Bjorn Borgs day, and a lot of the tournaments that count towards it now didn’t even exist, or were irrelevant...