Will Nadal pass Federer?

[shawnbm]

Just FYI, Nadal did play a 5-setter on clay in Rome v Guillermo Coria, too. 2x5 setters at RG only, and not in a final. And that's it, including Davis Cup.

Yes, I forgot about Coria--boy that was long ago, fourteen years now I think.

 

[lob]

I agree. Roger can't go weak or he will have a lifetime of regret. As AP says, Roger, Mirka and myself are on the same page. I think he knows what's at stake, huge difference between GOAT and 2nd place especially when they are rivals.

Darth, you talk as if Roger is a super hero. He has back issues and he'll be 37 in 7 weeks.He has kissed RG goodbye voluntarily and US Open involuntarily. At around 39 or 40 the age suddenly hits everyone like a tonne of bricks making it literally impossible to win five setters. Rafa's situation is different. He is 32 and RG is his bulwark until the day he retires. He'll win at least 2 more RGs.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, I forgot about Coria--boy that was long ago, fourteen years now I think.

2005, so 13. I looked it up to see if they'd played a 5-setter at MC just before in that same year, but that final went 4 and Rafa won. We've occasionally talked about Coria's fairly rapid decline after the 2004 RG final...I noticed that the very next year after their final in '05 in MC, he and Rafa met in the QFs of MC in '06, and Rafa won 2 and 1. That's a big drop in a year.

 

[DarthFed]

Darth, you talk as if Roger is a super hero. He has back issues and he'll be 37 in 7 weeks.He has kissed RG goodbye voluntarily and US Open involuntarily. At around 39 or 40 the age suddenly hits everyone like a tonne of bricks making it literally impossible to win five setters. Rafa's situation is different. He is 32 and RG is his bulwark until the day he retires. He'll win at least 2 more RGs.

Athletes simply age better now. And I don't know what you mean about involuntarily writing off USO? No reason Roger can't win a few more, it's all about health and motivation and the latter is certainly linked to Rafa's career. Fed should be highly motivated because what he's accomplished so far may simply not be enough.

These other guys suck, him and Rafa are BLESSED with this field right now and they will continue to get fat off it until one or more young guns becomes very relevant. So right now the real worry is health.

 

[imjimmy]

These other guys suck, him and Rafa are BLESSED with this field right now and they will continue to get fat off it until one or more young guns becomes very relevant. So right now the real worry is health.

I think you're ignoring the x-factor Novak. I think he's very close to getting back to his best. Once he does then it will impact both Fed and Nadal.
Novak is very strong at AO, so Fed won't be able to likely win more AOs with Novak back to his best. Similarly Djokovic has beaten Federer at Wimbledon, so even SW19 might not be a guarantee for Fed. For Nadal as his form declines YOY, it is hardly inconceivable that Djokovic could best him at RG. The only slam left is the UsOpen which is open - what with Zverev, Cillic, Delpo and perhaps some other young guns making noise over there.

Overall, I don't know how long Federer and Nadal can keep winning slams. Things change fast in tennis. We have a recency bias and believe that the current state of affairs will continue. But it probably won't. The most immediate dangers I see are Novak and Zverev. We all know what Novak can do, but even Sacha is rapidly maturing and might be a genuine slam contender as soon as Wimb/UsOpen this year. If I had to bet, I'd say both Fed and Nadal won't win too many slams going forward.

Lastly, no I don't think Nadal catches Federer in slam count. I think AO 2017 was the final nail in the coffin of that discussion. The gap's just too big now and will likely grow as Federer wins slams.

 

[DarthFed]

I think you're ignoring the x-factor Novak. I think he's very close to getting back to his best. Once he does then it will impact both Fed and Nadal.
Novak is very strong at AO, so Fed won't be able to likely win more AOs with Novak back to his best. Similarly Djokovic has beaten Federer at Wimbledon, so even SW19 might not be a guarantee for Fed. For Nadal as his form declines YOY, it is hardly inconceivable that Djokovic could best him at RG. The only slam left is the UsOpen which is open - what with Zverev, Cillic, Delpo and perhaps some other young guns making noise over there.

Overall, I don't know how long Federer and Nadal can keep winning slams. Things change fast in tennis. We have a recency bias and believe that the current state of affairs will continue. But it probably won't. The most immediate dangers I see are Novak and Zverev. We all know what Novak can do, but even Sacha is rapidly maturing and might be a genuine slam contender as soon as Wimb/UsOpen this year. If I had to bet, I'd say both Fed and Nadal won't win too many slams going forward.

Lastly, no I don't think Nadal catches Federer in slam count. I think AO 2017 was the final nail in the coffin of that discussion. The gap's just too big now and will likely grow as Federer wins slams.

I won't go into Nole's form as not to get crucified by my friend @brokenshoelace but I think we can all agree he is still pretty damn far from his best. I do believe he is an X factor though as he still could definitely come back to form and in a hurry. AO changed the last couple years and has played much faster though. I don't think Nole will ever be a lock there if they keep the surface fast. The USO on the other hand has only gotten slower and if Nole returns to form that becomes like what AO was.

 

[Jelenafan]

I think what would be intereresting if someone from the next gen wins Wimbledon. That could upset the cart in more ways than one, because the pragmatist in me does’t expect Fedal to win the next 6 Majors as they have the previous 6.

Some champions actually do break through without a long gestation period, and the next Gen could impact rather quickly how long Roger continues to play or if Rafa is limited only to RG for realistic chances for a Major.

 

[imjimmy]

I won't go into Nole's form as not to get crucified by my friend @brokenshoelace but I think we can all agree he is still pretty damn far from his best. I do believe he is an X factor though as he still could definitely come back to form and in a hurry. AO changed the last couple years and has played much faster though. I don't think Nole will ever be a lock there if they keep the surface fast. The USO on the other hand has only gotten slower and if Nole returns to form that becomes like what AO was.

I agree with everything you say in general. The only thing is about the speed of the court of the AO. The last time it had a big change to Plexicushion was in 2008. The last few years the speed of the courts have not significantly increased (it is still rated as medium hard and slower than the one at UsOpen officially). I don't think the court plays very differently from the time Novak was winning. And Djokovic's game suits the AO surface to a T. It's like how Rafa's game is at the French Open. If Novak gets to his best. he will definitely be a favorite at the AO.
Also for UsOpen, even if it is getting slower, Deco Turf plays differently from PC in terms of the bounce and the spin. One reason why Nadal has more success at the UsOpen compared to the AO, where his shots just sit up and don't take much spin.

 

[monfed]

I thought after Fed won AO 17, that was the end of dull's slam chase. And then he wins 3 slams after that. WTF? It's like the moment Fed starts winning, mowgli starts imitating since he has nothing better to do with his life. He has a girlfriend who he can marry, have some kids and live happily ever after but no, slam record is all he thinks about. Poor Mary, dull carries her around like a suitcase everywhere.

So maybe the solution is Fed stops winning slams which will put a stop to Nadull and the slam gap remains at three for eternity. We'll take that.

 

[DarthFed]

I thought after Fed won AO 17, that was the end of dull's slam chase. And then he wins 3 slams after that. WTF? It's like the moment Fed starts winning, mowgli starts imitating since he has nothing better to do with his life. He has a girlfriend who he can marry, have some kids and live happily ever after but no, slam record is all he thinks about. Poor Mary, dull carries her around like a suitcase everywhere.

So maybe the solution is Fed stops winning slams which will put a stop to Nadull and the slam gap remains at three for eternity. We'll take that.

I hope Nads puts a bun in that exotic oven of his. He's the type of emotional chap that could be ruined if he has kids. Certainly they don't help any athlete's career.

 

[shawnbm]

I don't believe Rafa will marry or have kids with Xisca until after his playing days are over, as I think he harbors some superstition about not rocking the boat as of yet. It is conjecture on my part, but it is what I believe from what I have read and seen of Nadal over the years.

 

[monfed]

I don't believe Rafa will marry or have kids with Xisca until after his playing days are over, as I think he harbors some superstition about not rocking the boat as of yet. It is conjecture on my part, but it is what I believe from what I have read and seen of Nadal over the years.

Uncle Phony said not too long ago that every time Fed wins, it's a problem for his nephew. That pretty much sealed Mary's fate.

 

[DarthFed]

I don't believe Rafa will marry or have kids with Xisca until after his playing days are over, as I think he harbors some superstition about not rocking the boat as of yet. It is conjecture on my part, but it is what I believe from what I have read and seen of Nadal over the years.

There's also the possibility that she is just a beard. I hope they have a mistake though, that'd help the anti-Rafa cause.

 

[10isfan]

I’m not trying to sling mud, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he came out of the closet after retiring, which means I think he’ll keep chasing Fed’s record until he succeeds, sustains a career-ending injury, or realizes he can’t surpass him.

 

[the AntiPusher]

There's also the possibility that she is just a beard. I hope they have a mistake though, that'd help the anti-Rafa cause.

I am just curious, is Mirika a "beard "..this is not a retaliation or etc from your comments about Xisca..but others have said that she was to Roger

 

[10isfan]

Possibly. The fact that she had twins twice supports that theory. However, he had a crush on Cindy Crawford while growing up so maybe he is straight. This isn’t our business. I brought up my suspicions about Nadal only to say I don’t think he will rush to marry.

 

[shawnbm]

Neither Mirka nor Xisca are beards to these guys. Where do people get these ideas?

 

[brokenshoelace]

And here I thought discussing Ken Rosewall's comment was bad.

 

[10isfan]

Nadal doesn’t travel much with his GF. That strikes me as odd. She had never been to AO until last year, for example. Anyway, let’s get back to discussing tennis. I hope Fed shows up firing on all cylinders so he can win another major or two because I believe Nadal will win two more FO titles.

 

[DarthFed]

Marriage is irrelevant, it's the baby that could destroy a career. I mean Fed won 5 since the first set of twins but that's in 9 years and he did very little from AO 2010 (the girls were like 5 months old). to start of 2017. It's got to be tough. Anyways with that exotic piece in his box he should be giving her a kid or two. What else would he be doing aside from tennis? Maybe someone needs to teach that boy how to swing a different stick.