Will Nadal pass Federer?

[Moxie]

With the win today, Rafa keeps the question alive. He's looking very fresh and hungry. At a freshly-minted 32, he doesn't look like he's quitting any time soon. Not sure why so many Fed fans are predicting that Roger loses this Wimbledon, but if he does, the race is surely on.

 

[shawnbm]

Love that old George Jones tune—well, the race is on and here comes pride up the backstretch; heartache’s a goin’ to the inside. My tears are holdin’ back, tryin’ not to faaall.

My heart’s outta the runnin’, true love scratched for another’s sake. The race is on and it looks like heartache, and the winner loses all.

 

[Moxie]

I would only say that well, yes, heartache for some might be on line, but we're all winners in the Fedal Wars. What sports rivalry has ever been this fun? After Red Sox/Yankees?

 

[rafanoy1992]

Like I said in 2010, 2013, and after 2017, unless Federer decides to retire tomorrow morning, I just do not see Nadal passing Federer on the Slam count. I could see him getting within 1 or tying him but not surpassing him. At age 32, it will be hard for Nadal to win at least 3 more unless all slams will be played on Clay.

To be honest, I do not really care if he catches him or not. All I care is that he is playing well and he is healthy.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Like I said in 2010, 2013, and after 2017, unless Federer decides to retire tomorrow morning, I just do not see Nadal passing Federer on the Slam count. I could see him getting within 1 or tying him but not surpassing him. At age 32, it will be hard for Nadal to win at least 3 more unless all slams will be played on Clay.

To be honest, I do not really care if he catches him or not. All I care is that he is playing well and he is healthy.

No, I think your guy has much better chances than you think. He is just 32 years young. Assuming, he plays till Roger's current age he will play in 5 more RGs. There alone he can grab three more (assuming Shortman wins the other two :lulz2.

Fed's dominance of Wimbledon is much inferior than Rafa's dominance on Clay. Hence, Fed cannot match up at the same rate (let alone talk about his age).

Finally, your guy has chances in all four slams, as he plays in all of them. Fed has given up on RG and so his theoretical chances are limited as well.

 

[rafanoy1992]

No, I think your guy has much better chances than you think. He is just 32 years young. Assuming, he plays till Roger's current age he will play in 5 more RGs. There alone he can grab three more (assuming Shortman wins the other two :lulz2.

Fed's dominance of Wimbledon is much inferior than Rafa's dominance on Clay. Hence, Fed cannot match up at the same rate (let alone talk about his age).

Finally, your guy has chances in all four slams, as he plays in all of them. Fed has given up on RG and so his theoretical chances are limited as well.

While I do agree that Nadal's dominance on Clay is much better than Fed's dominance on Grass, it does not guarantee that Nadal will automatically win 3 to 4 more RG. At some point, he will start to lose even on his favorite surface.

Now, as for the other three Slams, I do not see him win Wimbledon anymore. That leads us to the Aussie Open and US Open. While I think he is one of the favorites everytime he plays those two slams, he is more vulnerable in those slams than he has ever been especially if he does not fix his serve.

And as I said before, there is a possibility that Federer wins at least 2 more Slams just because he is TMF. He only needs to win 1 slam just to keep Nadal in float...

All in all, I won't lose sleep if Nadal does not pass Federer. At this point, he is healthy and he is happy, all is well in the world.

 

[monfed]

Million dollar question isn't it? Who knows how many RG cheatdull will harvest to pad up his slam count, isn't it?

Regardless no sane tennis fan would consider anti-tennis greater than the most complete player ever though I agree that the destruction of tennis would be complete.

 

[shawnbm]

I would only say that well, yes, heartache for some might be on line, but we're all winners in the Fedal Wars. What sports rivalry has ever been this fun? After Red Sox/Yankees?

Oh, love me some Possum. Thanks Moxie! And yes, everybody wins as long as Fedal is still a viable duo competing in the Tennis world.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger's goal should be 22 slams. I think that'd make it safe from the grasp of the relentless Nads. Win Wimbledon here and then again next year or take one of USO and AO. Nothing is more important.

 

[shawnbm]

^^^ re: Rafanoy comment above, Roger has been to 11 finals in London do match Rafa and his 11 in Paris, but Rafa won all of his and Roger won 8 of them. He’s been pushed to five sets a number of times on grass and famously lost one in 2008 and again in 2014, but I can’t recall anyone pushing Rafa to five sets on clay other than Fed in Rome in 2006. Rafa’s dominance on clay is unparalleled—no doubt about it. Roger on grass is a distant second and only then slightly ahead of Pete Sampras.

 

[monfed]

Roger's goal should be 22 slams. I think that'd make it safe from the grasp of the relentless Nads. Win Wimbledon here and then again next year or take one of USO and AO. Nothing is more important.

But that only accounts for 5 more RGs.

 

[atttomole]

Roger's goal should be 22 slams. I think that'd make it safe from the grasp of the relentless Nads. Win Wimbledon here and then again next year or take one of USO and AO. Nothing is more important.

I think 22 may not be enough for Federer. As you have said a few times, Nadal could still win at least another 3 RG’s, and with good draws, an AO, a UO and even a Wimbledon. The race is is still on. I am hoping that with Federer’s abbreviated schedule, he can play at least another 2 years.

 

[atttomole]

^^^ re: Rafanoy comment above, Roger has been to 11 finals in London do match Rafa and his 11 in Paris, but Rafa won all of his and Roger won 8 of them. He’s been pushed to five sets a number of times on grass and famously lost one in 2008 and again in 2014, but I can’t recall anyone pushing Rafa to five sets on clay other than Fed in Rome in 2006. Rafa’s dominance on clay is unparalleled—no doubt about it. Roger on grass is a distant second and only then slightly ahead of Pete Sampras.

I agree with all that. However, it’s important to understand that the way the surfaces play is an important factor that is often ignored. With grass, one could be out of the tournament before they even know it. If Roger plays someone having a great serving day, there is not much he can do. Even shabby tennis players with a good serve can get beat better ones at Wimbledon, or they can make the matches more competitive.

 

[DarthFed]

^^^ re: Rafanoy comment above, Roger has been to 11 finals in London do match Rafa and his 11 in Paris, but Rafa won all of his and Roger won 8 of them. He’s been pushed to five sets a number of times on grass and famously lost one in 2008 and again in 2014, but I can’t recall anyone pushing Rafa to five sets on clay other than Fed in Rome in 2006. Rafa’s dominance on clay is unparalleled—no doubt about it. Roger on grass is a distant second and only then slightly ahead of Pete Sampras.

No question about that. Fed wet the bed in the Wimbledon final a couple times and had a quality tough loss in 2014. Otherwise they would be somewhat comparable but Rafa on clay would still be more dominant.

 

[DarthFed]

I think 22 may not be enough for Federer. As you have said a few times, Nadal could still win at least another 3 RG’s, and with good draws, an AO, a UO and even a Wimbledon. The race is is still on. I am hoping that with Federer’s abbreviated schedule, he can play at least another 2 years.

I'm bearish on the next gen to a degree but I think eventually they will make it significantly tougher. I don't think Rafa wins 5 more and if he does, and they both end up with 22, with 15 being on clay could he really be considered as good as Federer? I don't think so

 

[shawnbm]

The best argument for Federer is that he either leads above all others or is tied for the most titles at 3 of the 4 majors--that is mighty impressive for TMF as it shows being great at the beginning, middle and end of the year, especially when you throw in his World Tour Finals championships in November.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Depends on Federer almost more so than Nadal IMO. I can see Nadal winning 3 more to tie Federer, but that hinges on Roger not winning any more.

We have that debate after every slam that one of them wins. If Federer wins Wimbledon in a month, all of a sudden it will seem like a big gap again. If Roger doesn't win Wimbledon then I think the question becomes very interesting.

 

[shawnbm]

Yes, broken is correct on this. It keeps things interesting since Novak has fallen off, Stanislas is too hit or miss as well as injured, and Murray is I don't know what. It seems clear to me that Sasha and Dominic and the others have a ways to go to be able to impose their will on Federer or Nadal--too much aura still there as to those two.

 

[Moxie]

^^^ re: Rafanoy comment above, Roger has been to 11 finals in London do match Rafa and his 11 in Paris, but Rafa won all of his and Roger won 8 of them. He’s been pushed to five sets a number of times on grass and famously lost one in 2008 and again in 2014, but I can’t recall anyone pushing Rafa to five sets on clay other than Fed in Rome in 2006. Rafa’s dominance on clay is unparalleled—no doubt about it. Roger on grass is a distant second and only then slightly ahead of Pete Sampras.

Just FYI, Nadal did play a 5-setter on clay in Rome v Guillermo Coria, too. 2x5 setters at RG only, and not in a final. And that's it, including Davis Cup.

 

[DarthFed]

Depends on Federer almost more so than Nadal IMO. I can see Nadal winning 3 more to tie Federer, but that hinges on Roger not winning any more.

We have that debate after every slam that one of them wins. If Federer wins Wimbledon in a month, all of a sudden it will seem like a big gap again. If Roger doesn't win Wimbledon then I think the question becomes very interesting.

I agree. Roger can't go weak or he will have a lifetime of regret. As AP says, Roger, Mirka and myself are on the same page. I think he knows what's at stake, huge difference between GOAT and 2nd place especially when they are rivals.