Why 2018 is going to be a blood-bath (maybe)

[El Dude]

Now you're just being argumentative. Are you really saying that Novak didn't take a huge leap forward in 2011?

You can look at the record just as well as I - but here's one year.

2010:
vs. Rafa 0-2
vs. Roger 1-4
Overall 61-18
Non-Fedal: 60-12

2011:
vs. Rafa 6-0
vs. Roger 4-1
Overall: 70-6
non-Fedal: 60-5

60-5 in 2011 vs. 60-12 in 2010. I'd call that a big leap forward; add in Fedal (1-6 vs 10-1) and it is huge.

 

[Busted]

One more thing: Djokovic and Murray will start 2018 outside of the Top 10 so Round of 16 and QF matches will be fun and crazy...

Which is exactly why Dimitrov - as El Dude prognosticated - will NOT win the AO or any other Slam. It's the same as always - depending on the draw he'll probably still have to beat 3 of the big 4 (5 if you include Stan) to win it. He won the WTF beating Goffin twice, Carreno Busta, Sock and Thiem. Yawn. It's a hell of a step up if he has to beat 2 or 3 of the Big 4 (5) just to get out of his half of the draw. And then he'll need someone on the other side of the draw to take out either Federer or Nadal. Look at what happened to Roger - he played Berdych (3rd round), Nishikori (4th round) - and then would have played Murray in the QF if Murray hadn't lost, then Stan and then Nadal. And the one thing we know - Dimitrov ain't Federer. Could he beat Djokovic, Murray and Federer\Nadal to make it to the final to play Federer\Nadal? No way in hell. If he defends his 720 points he'll need another easy draw like he had this year. If Istomin hadn't beat Djokovic Dimitrov wouldn't even have made it to the QF.

 

[Busted]

I guess the NextGen will get soundly beaten this year. Too many good guys coming back, in fact the lost generation trio of Dimitrov, Raonic and Nishikori (if healthy) can give all of them but Zverev a good beating, not to mention big 3+1+1, del Potro and my favorite boxer in tennis, Tsonga.

By the way, I am pretty sure Fedal are both quite aware that lot of people think they just had it easy in 2017. Anyone who followed closely knows that they actually did raise their level. So I guess they are eager to cross paths with Djokovic and Murray as soon as they can... they could have an unpleasant surprise for sure, but it would be fun anyway.

I don't think it's the NextGen who really have anything to fear. They're all still at lest 2 years away from getting to the top. The guys who have something to fear are Dimitrov, Goffin, Sock, and Carreno Busta.. They're the ones who will get a reality check if Djokovic, Murray, and Wawrinka are healthy. It's a toss up with Nishikori and Raonic...but yes, they could be back in the Top 10, too, and those placeholders will all be back outside the Top 10 where they belong.. I would assume that Djokovic in particular will be super motivated because he's now 4 Slams behind Nadal and 7 behind Federer - and 31 is knocking on the door.

 

[Busted]

If we're mentioning what we hope for, I hope that Rafa finally gets his 2nd AO title, which would be the double-career Slam.

Then he'll have to hope the court isn't playing as fast as it was this year and he gets an easy draw like the US Open.. Then again - I doubt he'll be lucky enough to go another Slam without having to play anyone inside the Top 25.

 

[Busted]

I still think they're both a bit better than Novak, and not just because of hardware count. It's mentality. That's my opinion, and I'm happy to debate it. And I don't think the others are closing the gap so much as Roger and Rafa are going to inevitably decline. You certainly can't say that there are many/any potential Federers or Nadals out there right now. Djokovic is the only one in the race with them, for now, but he's his own man.

OMG...I actually agree with you about something Nadal-related. Djokovic's biggest problem is that he wants fans worldwide to love him the same way they love Federer and Nadal - and that's just not going to happen anytime soon. I don't know if it's because he was kind of abrasive when he first started winning or what, but people have just never warmed up to him in the same way as Federer and Nadal. That's not to say that fans don't recognize his talent...but they don't root for him if he's playing Federer or Nadal either.

 

[Busted]

How about this:

NOVAK vs. RAFA
Career: 26-24
2011-17 (since Novak entered peak): 19-8
2011-13 (Years Novak and Rafa were peaking): 10-6

NOVAK vs. ROGER
Career: 23-22
2011-17: 18-9

Hard to think of Novak being considerably below those two.

Well, now, let's get look at this logically - Nadal and Djokovic are roughly the same age - 31 and 30. Roger is 6 years older than Nole. If their H2H was 18-9 (66.7%) in Nole's favor during Nole's peak years, then that means that prior to 2011 the H2H was 13-5 (72.2%) In Roger's favor from 2006-2010. That's a wash. And if you discount 2011 when Novak was beating everybody and their dog it's 14-8 (63.6%) in Nole's favor. Even in 2015 - his 2nd best year - he was 4-3 against a 34 y.o. Federer. So really - isn't it more impressive that Roger can still hang with a "peak" Djokovic - even if he did ultimately lose 3 Slam finals to Nole in 2014-2015? I don't think Nole's "considerably below" Nadal or Federer...but the numbers for who was more dominant in their "peak years" points to Federer having dominated Djokovic more than the other way around.

 

[Busted]

I think that Novak got close to Rafa, but we all assumed his trajectory would persist for longer. He’s definitely been a more dominant player than Rafa, but at the end of the day you have to produce, you can’t just give Novak the titles. I have zero interest in h2h it tells you nothing for players who merely overlap eras, it’s unfair at the start for player A and unfair at the end for player B. Even when the players are of the same era like Novak and Rafa it still pales in utility to titles in my view. Rafa has opened up a chasm vs Novak now in the slam race, by other measures Novak is not that far behind. One thing’s for sure if Novak doesn’t turn it back around in the next 6 slams he can kiss goodbye any chance of unseating Rafa. Personally I find the debate about whether Novak has a better chance of catching Rafa as Nadal catching Federer an interesting discussion now. I wouldn’t have said that a year ago, at that time I thought Novak a lock.

Question: Novak's soon to be 31. Nadal's soon to be 32. Who do you think will win more Slams going foward? Bear in mind that until the US Open was gifted to him when he did't have to play anyone in the top 25 - Nadal hadn't won a non-title - not just Slam, but any title - since Dohan in early 2014. Let's say Novak comes roaring back the way Federer did - doesn't he have a better chance of closing the gapthan Nadal does of widening it? Djokovic can win on all surfaces - and there are 3 non-clay Slams. Djokovic could win 3 Slams this year, Nadal loses the French - and suddenly it's back to a 1 Slam lead for Nadal and 4 Slams for Federer. To be honest - I can see this scenario more than I can see Nadal ever winning anything other than the French Open. Every year Djokovic has 4 Slams he can definitely win compared to 1 for Nadal and 3 for Federer (assuming Roger never plays the French again).

 

[El Dude]

@Busted, just to be clear, I don't really think Grigor is going to win the Australian Open, I just put that down for the fun of it - to be bold and fearless.

If I had to put money on someone it would be Roger.

 

[Busted]

Re: Novak in the future, we just don't know. But he was certainly the most dominant player from 2011-16 and, as I said, up until he started struggling in late 2016, I thought he was comparable to Rafa in overall career greatness. Rafa had two more Slams, but Novak had more weeks at #1 and all those WTFs. Now Rafa has jumped ahead again.

So in terms of career accomplishments, right now the order is clear: Roger, Rafa, Novak. But in terms of peak greatness it is not so clear. I think they are all similar, although in different ways.

If Novak's elbow injury had been going on as long as he claims - at least a year - then his "tanking" and mental fatigue makes sense. It's more physically exhausting to play in pain or when you know you're not 100%. Look at what happened with Roger and his back in 2013. Nobody knew his back was as bad as it was and he kept playing. He even said that mentally it was tough to hang in matches because he was protecting his back. If Nole is healthy - then the mental side of it becomes easier.

Novak's other problem was his stamina. He clearly wasn't in the same physical shape last year as he had been in previous years. I hope he's gotten over his read meat boycott and had a few steaks...

 

[Busted]

@Busted, just to be clear, I don't really think Grigor is going to win the Australian Open, I just put that down for the fun of it - to be bold and fearless.

If I had to put money on someone it would be Roger.

Thank God. I was beginning to wonder if I was the only person who knows that the wannabe emperor is nekkid...

 

[Busted]

http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/13/novak...stop-roger-federer-rafael-nadal-2018-7157980/

I'm still laughing about this. Why he needs a stats guy to beat 2 players he's played 100 times each is beyond me and shows a lack a confidence. Just watch some the 2017 Federer and Nadal matches yourself, dude.

 

[mrzz]

@Busted, just to be clear, I don't really think Grigor is going to win the Australian Open, I just put that down for the fun of it - to be bold and fearless.

Yeah, that's the spirit!

 

[Busted]

All down to gluten free, right?

As someone with food allergies - when you stop eating shit that your body is rejecting or is attacking your body? It's like night and day physically and that in turn changes your mental attitude. For years I didn't know I had a dairy allergy - not just lactose intolerance, but an allergy that caused inflammation throughout my body. Inflammation = pain, dude. Nobody wants to do anything physical when every muscle and joint in your body aches. I stopped eating dairy every day and most of the inflammation has cleared up. I'm certainly no world-class athlete, but yes, eliminating foods you're allergic to really does make that much of a difference.

 

[Moxie]

All down to gluten free, right?

Your chutzpah is astonishing, with the implications about doping. It gets at your radar that a 23-year-old might up his game, from B+ to A+, by finding an answer to his health issues, or, realistically, just because that might be when he starts to peak. He got stronger and had better stamina. And this inclines you to innuendo.

And yet, you find no red-flag when a 35-year-old comes back from a 7-month lay-off and wins a major (after 4 1/2 years, oh...and then another one!), exhibiting much more strength on his bh, and more stamina. This you attribute it to a good rest.

If you were willing to be suspicious about one, you should be suspicious of the other. Otherwise, your standards are transparently biased.

 

[Federberg]

Now you're just being argumentative. Are you really saying that Novak didn't take a huge leap forward in 2011?

You can look at the record just as well as I - but here's one year.

2010:
vs. Rafa 0-2
vs. Roger 1-4
Overall 61-18
Non-Fedal: 60-12

2011:
vs. Rafa 6-0
vs. Roger 4-1
Overall: 70-6
non-Fedal: 60-5

60-5 in 2011 vs. 60-12 in 2010. I'd call that a big leap forward; add in Fedal (1-6 vs 10-1) and it is huge.

Mate you really must learn to moderate your tone. I’ve told you before don’t try to create a personal narrative about me. You get extremely sensitive and defensive yourself, but still persist with that bad habit. Stop it and stop it now.

Your data is interesting thank you. Same number of non-Fedal wins, but a superior record nonetheless.

 

[Moxie]

Now you're just being argumentative. Are you really saying that Novak didn't take a huge leap forward in 2011?

You can look at the record just as well as I - but here's one year.

2010:
vs. Rafa 0-2
vs. Roger 1-4
Overall 61-18
Non-Fedal: 60-12

2011:
vs. Rafa 6-0
vs. Roger 4-1
Overall: 70-6
non-Fedal: 60-5

60-5 in 2011 vs. 60-12 in 2010. I'd call that a big leap forward; add in Fedal (1-6 vs 10-1) and it is huge.

Indeed it WAS a great leap forward. I don't know that anyone would deny that. We saw it with our own eyes. The years that differed in their h2h is another question.

 

[El Dude]

Mate you really must learn to moderate your tone. I’ve told you before don’t try to create a personal narrative about me. You get extremely sensitive and defensive yourself, but still persist with that bad habit. Stop it and stop it now.

Do you realize what you just did here? All I said is that you were being argumentative - like arguing that Novak didn't take a big step forward in 2011, which is common knowledge and easily seen in his statistics. You are way over-exaggerating any "tone" and "personal narrative". And then you go ahead and accuse me of being extremely sensitive and defensive...dude, who is creating a personal narrative of someone? And who is being defensive and sensitive? Is this irony really lost on you?

 

[El Dude]

Indeed it WAS a great leap forward. I don't know that anyone would deny that. We saw it with our own eyes. The years that differed in their h2h is another question.

Federberg wasn't buying it - see above.

 

[Moxie]

Federberg wasn't buying it - see above.

I think he's just poking at you. For whatever reason, you 2 are chalk and cheese. I still think we're all agreeing that Novak is a fine #3 to Fedal, in this era. And the story is yet to be resolved. To the OP, 2018 will be very interesting.

 

[Federberg]

I think he's just poking at you. For whatever reason, you 2 are chalk and cheese. I still think we're all agreeing that Novak is a fine #3 to Fedal, in this era. And the story is yet to be resolved. To the OP, 2018 will be very interesting.

No I’m not just poking at him. Don’t try any UN stuff here Moxie. He always tries to assign a narrative to why people disagree or question his statements. Then acts all put out when he’s called on it. It’s unmanly. I’m being civil with the guy then because I don’t agree verbatim I get this disrespectful shite. He can simply skip that crap and state his case. I’m not actually upset but as a man I would think he should pride himself in being able to take the hits as well as give them