Why 2018 is going to be a blood-bath (maybe)

[El Dude]

Maybe I misread you but you did seem to be saying we might look back and see 2017 as the last year of dominance. I could live with that statement if there was supporting evidence but there’s nothing. Statements like that could have been made years ago, but in a year where Fedal clean up, where’s the beef?

Maybe I should have said "utter" dominance. They won all four Slams and five Masters between them, plus the YE1. I just don't see that happening again. I don't think they are going away any time soon, but things will get more competitive in 2018.

I also have concerns for both players. Rafa has had unusually good luck with his health of late, so he's due for an injury. Roger's back is a concern; it seems like he can't go more than a tournament or two without it flaring up. I hope I'm wrong, though.

 

[El Dude]

I will also add that if you look at their combined careers, there has been a trend of decline from their combined peak of 2005-2010. From 2011 on, the trajectory has been gradually downward--that is, combining their careers into one--with 2016 being the low point. 2017 was a rather unprecedented and unexpected resurgence, not just to 2011-15 level, but their best combined effort since 2010.

 

[Moxie]

Maybe I should have said "utter" dominance. They won all four Slams and five Masters between them, plus the YE1. I just don't see that happening again. I don't think they are going away any time soon, but things will get more competitive in 2018.

I also have concerns for both players. Rafa has had unusually good luck with his health of late, so he's due for an injury. Roger's back is a concern; it seems like he can't go more than a tournament or two without it flaring up. I hope I'm wrong, though.

You seem to have forgotten about Rafa's knee. He withdrew from the YEC after one match. Hopefully he's back to fit by AO, though, and that was the injury he was "due." Obviously, they won't play top level tennis forever. And given that everyone is coming back, "utter dominance" is unlikely to happen again next year, but they have shown they are just that much better than everyone else. On this point, I agree with @Federberg who, rebutting someone who said that Fedal were lucky that Djokorray were injured, said that one could say that Djokorray were lucky that Fedal were not full-strength in 2015-16.

 

[El Dude]

Fedal are so much better than everyone else...except Novak. And others are gradually but inexorably closing the gap.

 

[Moxie]

Fedal are so much better than everyone else...except Novak. And others are gradually but inexorably closing the gap.

I still think they're both a bit better than Novak, and not just because of hardware count. It's mentality. That's my opinion, and I'm happy to debate it. And I don't think the others are closing the gap so much as Roger and Rafa are going to inevitably decline. You certainly can't say that there are many/any potential Federers or Nadals out there right now. Djokovic is the only one in the race with them, for now, but he's his own man.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Who are you talking too, @Federberg? I'm not "calling time" on Fedal - I'm just saying that they won't have it as easy in 2018 as they did in 2017, and that 2017 was probably he last year they'll truly dominate as a pair. Read above - I still predict both to win a Slam.

Also, in 2013 almost no one predicted Roger could win another Slam. There was hope in 2014-15, but then 2016 happened. 2017 was a surprise to everyone.

As for Nadal, after his poor 2015-16 showings, the only person I know of who thought he'd find his way again was Carol.

Nah..i was also drinking the Rafa koolaid however it was with the caveat that Rafa needed a former tennis ATP pro to work with Toni..remember you thought i was spiking my koolaid when i was on that 2-3 year campaign..Even my fellow Rafa fans said i was looney and tried to totally abolish Toni which couldn't have been further from the truth.

 

[El Dude]

I still think they're both a bit better than Novak, and not just because of hardware count. It's mentality. That's my opinion, and I'm happy to debate it. And I don't think the others are closing the gap so much as Roger and Rafa are going to inevitably decline. You certainly can't say that there are many/any potential Federers or Nadals out there right now. Djokovic is the only one in the race with them, for now, but he's his own man.

Well, the H2H vs. Roger and Rafa, especially over the last seven years, speaks differently. We've never really seen peak Roger vs. peak Novak. but we have seen peak Novak vs. peak Rafa and Novak had the edge overall.

 

[Moxie]

Well, the H2H vs. Roger and Rafa, especially over the last seven years, speaks differently. We've never really seen peak Roger vs. peak Novak. but we have seen peak Novak vs. peak Rafa and Novak had the edge overall.

That is a controvertible point. I fully agree that Djokovic has troubled Rafa more than anyone, but they didn't always overlap in their best years. The key year was 2011, when Rafa was full strength, and Novak found his new level. He took Rafa a bit by surprise there, and it took Nadal some time to regroup and readjust his game. Which he did. But after the 2014 RG final, Nadal hit a bad patch in his play and health, and Djokovic was soaring. Great for Novak, and people with short memories. However, their earlier career has to count for something. Nadal shouldn't get discounted because the heft of his career came before Djokovic's surge. Also, Rafa is 7-4 v. Nole at Majors. They've split 3 finals, but all of Novak's final wins at Majors over him came in that window of specifically taking him by storm (W '11, USO '11, AO '12.) That's about a 7 month window. Novak's other one was against a very reduced Nadal at RG in 2015, in a QF or whatever. Nadal, on the other hand, has beaten Djokovic on both sides of his 2011 surge, in Major finals.

 

[El Dude]

How about this:

NOVAK vs. RAFA
Career: 26-24
2011-17 (since Novak entered peak): 19-8
2011-13 (Years Novak and Rafa were peaking): 10-6

NOVAK vs. ROGER
Career: 23-22
2011-17: 18-9

Hard to think of Novak being considerably below those two.

 

[Moxie]

How about this:

NOVAK vs. RAFA
Career: 26-24
2011-17 (since Novak entered peak): 19-8
2011-13 (Years Novak and Rafa were peaking): 10-6

NOVAK vs. ROGER
Career: 23-22
2011-17: 18-9

Hard to think of Novak being considerably below those two.

I don't believe I ever said "considerably below." In fact, I said he's the only one giving them a run. Lay it out in a way that suits you, but remember that, even when Novak went on his run of 7 finals over Rafa, in 2011-12, it still left him 4 behind in their h2h. That's how far behind he was. And even with another run of 7 wins, it took him until 2015, Nadal's nadir year, to pass him. It took him even longer to pass Roger. I'm not saying that Nole isn't top-drawer. But I will say that it took for them flagging for him to get the h2h over them, and mostly the best of them. He's the #3 of the Big 3. Is that hard to say?

 

[El Dude]

I think we're nitpicking because its the offseason ;-). #3 of 3 right now, yes. A year and a half ago I would have given Novak a tiny edge over Rafa, or at least put them as equals, with Novak almost certainly to surpass Rafa. But we shall see.

 

[Moxie]

Let's nitpick away! What else have we got to do? It has been the Fed fans dream for Djokovic to surpass Nadal, thus somewhat taking the sting out of the h2h. But Novak has collapsed of late, and Rafa has resurged, with Roger. The two of them are always going to be tied at the hip, in terms of this era. Djokovic may find his way back yet, but I think it'll always be odd man out. Whatever he does against them now will be very late career.

 

[El Dude]

Let's nitpick away! What else have we got to do? It has been the Fed fans dream for Djokovic to surpass Nadal, thus somewhat taking the sting out of the h2h. But Novak has collapsed of late, and Rafa has resurged, with Roger. The two of them are always going to be tied at the hip, in terms of this era. Djokovic may find his way back yet, but I think it'll always be odd man out. Whatever he does against them now will be very late career.

Sigh. Moxie, find your Fedal Warriors among others. I just have no patience or interest in that ongoing squabble.

Anyhow, I hear what you are saying and you may be right, but you seem to be spinning this slightly to give your Rafa an edge. Novak is the odd man out in terms of mystique, but his results - including vs. Roger and Rafa - are pretty damn impressive, and very close to Rafa's. He's close enough in age to Rafa that I don't think you can count future victories against him as "very late career."

 

[Moxie]

Sigh. Moxie, find your Fedal Warriors among others. I just have no patience or interest in that ongoing squabble.

Anyhow, I hear what you are saying and you may be right, but you seem to be spinning this slightly to give your Rafa an edge. Novak is the odd man out in terms of mystique, but his results - including vs. Roger and Rafa - are pretty damn impressive, and very close to Rafa's. He's close enough in age to Rafa that I don't think you can count future victories against him as "very late career."

If you don't want to argue Fedal and Djokovic, don't give me stats to debate.

Here's one that gets me, and a lot of Djokovic fans put it out there: that Nadal is only 1 year older than Djokovic. Yes, indeed. But let's not pretend that their tennis tracks weren't very different, by age. You have to give Rafa some credit for being our last prodigy. And everyone, including you, above, looks at the mileage on him, looking for the next injury. When Novak won his1st Major, Rafa had 4, and when he won his 2nd Major, Rafa had 8. Does this seem comparable in age and mileage in tennis years to you? Given that many people thought Rafa would be done by 26-27, I think it's fair to say that anything post-31 for Rafa is "late-career," by everyone's estimation.

 

[El Dude]

No, what I don't want to argue is Fedal. I find it exhausting and uninteresting, and the underlying focus of these forums. I won't be pulled into it.

But I agree: "tennis age wise," Nadal is probably 2-3 years older than Novak. That said, you keep on looking for a way to spin this so Rafa gets the edge. At least look at the other side of the argument (e.g. the h2h, YE1s, WTFs, etc).

 

[Moxie]

No, what I don't want to argue is Fedal. I find it exhausting and uninteresting, and the underlying focus of these forums. I won't be pulled into it.

But I agree: "tennis age wise," Nadal is probably 2-3 years older than Novak. That said, you keep on looking for a way to spin this so Rafa gets the edge. At least look at the other side of the argument (e.g. the h2h, YE1s, WTFs, etc).

I'm not unaware of where Novak is close to Nadal, or supersedes him in some stats. I'm a Nadal fan, as you know, so I'm only trying to remind you of what is true. But here's some actual spin: Nadal was the guy unlucky to be in-between Roger and Nole, when each had a bit of a breather on each side. Given that he's never had a breather against a formidable opponent, and all his time lost to injury, he's done pretty effing well. Roger and Novak did get time with no real opposition. (Which is surely not a "weak era" argument. Just saying that they got a bit of competition relief.

 

[DarthFed]

It's still misleading to suggest Fedal is currently better than Djokovic. They were better this year obviously but Novak was way better from 2014-2016 and overall has been way better than both over the period of 2011-2017. I don't think it'd be a surprise to anyone if Novak has a better 2018 and/or wins more than Roger and Rafa over the remainder of their careers.

Fedal clearly have had the better careers, though El Dude was right that Nole was damn near level with Rafa before 2017. But Moxie saying Fedal is currently way better than Novak is kind of laughable. I also find it funny that Nole's wins vs crappy versions of Rafa don't count while she is happy to count all Rafa's wins over Nole before 2011.

 

[Moxie]

It's still misleading to suggest Fedal is currently better than Djokovic. They were better this year obviously but Novak was way better from 2014-2016 and overall has been way better than both in 2011-2017. Fedal clearly have had the better careers but Moxie saying Fedal are way better than Novak is kind of laughable. I also find it funny that Nole's wins vs crappy versions of Rafa don't count while she is happy to count all Rafa's wins over Nole before 2011.

Let me say again: I never said that Fedal are way better than Novak. I said I think they're better. Darth, if you could read better and not go to extreme hyperbole, this would be less painful. As to your bolded above, I've only asked people with their short little attention spans not to forget how much Rafa dominated Nole pre-2011. It's as if all that matters, vis-a-vis Novak, is post-2011. But that's not an assessment of their full careers. You yourself have laughed when people have talked about Novak winning over "geriatric" Fed, so don't play coy with me on this. Anyway, it's not "misleading to suggest that Fedal is currently better than Djokovic." They actually are, by dint of winning, and Djokovic being on injured reserve. You're comparing them to a theoretical Djokovic who didn't play this year. We'll see how he comes back, but I still would say he is rather more fragile than they are, mentally, and has been, over the course of his career, overall. That's where I separate them.

 

[DarthFed]

Let me say again: I never said that Fedal are way better than Novak. I said I think they're better. Darth, if you could read better and not go to extreme hyperbole, this would be less painful. As to your bolded above, I've only asked people with their short little attention spans not to forget how much Rafa dominated Nole pre-2011. It's as if all that matters, vis-a-vis Novak, is post-2011. But that's not an assessment of their full careers. You yourself have laughed when people have talked about Novak winning over "geriatric" Fed, so don't play coy with me on this. Anyway, it's not "misleading to suggest that Fedal is currently better than Djokovic." They actually are, by dint of winning, and Djokovic being on injured reserve. You're comparing them to a theoretical Djokovic who didn't play this year. We'll see how he comes back, but I still would say he is rather more fragile than they are, mentally, and has been, over the course of his career, overall. That's where I separate them.

Kind of ironic my dear. Read my post again and you'll see I never said that you said Fedal was way better. I pointed out that for most of the past 7 seasons Nole has been way better than both of them.

And yes I stand by the statement that it is misleading to say they are currently better. They had a much better 2017 but so did 10+ other players. It'd be one thing if Fedal were younger and Nole had become old in 2017. He'd had a long run of dominance and lost his way a bit much like Fed in 2013 and Nadal in 2015 and 2016. I guess you believe those results were due to them being old and/or injured and Nole's 2017 is due to him being a mental midget? I don't think one bad year means Nole is done. I've had this argument with fellow Fed fans too, I think it is well over 75% wishful thinking on their part as well as yours. It's possible Nole will remain irrelevant from here on out but I think the man's ambitious and he has lots to play for.

 

[Federberg]

Kind of ironic my dear. Read my post again and you'll see I never said that you said Fedal was way better. I pointed out that for most of the past 7 seasons Nole has been way better than both of them.

And yes I stand by the statement that it is misleading to say they are currently better. They had a much better 2017 but so did 10+ other players. It'd be one thing if Fedal were younger and Nole had become old in 2017. He'd had a long run of dominance and lost his way a bit much like Fed in 2013 and Nadal in 2015 and 2016. I guess you believe those results were due to them being old and/or injured and Nole's 2017 is due to him being a mental midget? I don't think one bad year means Nole is done. I've had this argument with fellow Fed fans too, I think it is well over 75% wishful thinking on their part as well as yours. It's possible Nole will remain irrelevant from here on out but I think the man's ambitious and he has lots to play for.

Lol! I’m a bit confused here. Read your post again buddy, that exactly what you accused her of saying