Why 2018 is going to be a blood-bath (maybe)

Federberg

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I think that Novak got close to Rafa, but we all assumed his trajectory would persist for longer. He’s definitely been a more dominant player than Rafa, but at the end of the day you have to produce, you can’t just give Novak the titles. I have zero interest in h2h it tells you nothing for players who merely overlap eras, it’s unfair at the start for player A and unfair at the end for player B. Even when the players are of the same era like Novak and Rafa it still pales in utility to titles in my view. Rafa has opened up a chasm vs Novak now in the slam race, by other measures Novak is not that far behind. One thing’s for sure if Novak doesn’t turn it back around in the next 6 slams he can kiss goodbye any chance of unseating Rafa. Personally I find the debate about whether Novak has a better chance of catching Rafa as Nadal catching Federer an interesting discussion now. I wouldn’t have said that a year ago, at that time I thought Novak a lock.
 
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mrzz

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Seems that Darth's point is simply that Djokovic has been way better than Fedal in the last 7 seasons combined and the results tell that quite easily. Moxie's point is that you need to compare the whole careers, which is right, but as everyone agrees nobody is done just yet, so the last 7 seasons are probably a better medium term reference for the next two or three years than just the outlier that the lone 2017 was (which I guess is also Darth's point). I would love if Federer could still win big in 2018, but a repeat of 2017 would be a super-human effort.
 
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DarthFed

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Seems that Darth's point is simply that Djokovic has been way better than Fedal in the last 7 seasons combined and the results tell that quite easily. Moxie's point is that you need to compare the whole careers, which is right, but as everyone agrees nobody is done just yet, so the last 7 seasons are probably a better medium term reference for the next two or three years than just the outlier that the lone 2017 was (which I guess is also Darth's point). I would love if Federer could still win big in 2018, but a repeat of 2017 would be a super-human effort.

Moxie isn't just talking careers though. And I don't think you can completely throw out the years before 2017 when Novak was dominant and then assume he's going to struggle mightily from here on out. i'd love it too if Fed dominates again in 2018 but a repeat of last year seems unrealistic and I don't think one bad injury-riddled year means Novak forgot how to play tennis.
 

Federberg

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Moxie isn't just talking careers though. And I don't think you can completely throw out the years before 2017 when Novak was dominant and then assume he's going to struggle mightily from here on out. i'd love it too if Fed dominates again in 2018 but a repeat of last year seems unrealistic and I don't think one bad injury-riddled year means Novak forgot how to play tennis.

If Roger wins in Melbourne then it’s game on for a repeat slam wise. That’s not that low a probability to me. As for Novak the way he tanked against Thiem tells me that this has gone way past being a physical issue. Not saying he’s done, but he has a heck of a lot more work to do than Murray. Meanwhile a lot of young guys have built up their confidence and experience and aren’t going to see him as some invincible dude. He has to rebuild that aura and that’s not easy. My point is that his path to contest Fedal will be tough and it’s not clear to me that when the dust settles he’ll be left standing.
 
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El Dude

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Re: Novak in the future, we just don't know. But he was certainly the most dominant player from 2011-16 and, as I said, up until he started struggling in late 2016, I thought he was comparable to Rafa in overall career greatness. Rafa had two more Slams, but Novak had more weeks at #1 and all those WTFs. Now Rafa has jumped ahead again.

So in terms of career accomplishments, right now the order is clear: Roger, Rafa, Novak. But in terms of peak greatness it is not so clear. I think they are all similar, although in different ways.
 
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Moxie

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If Roger wins in Melbourne then it’s game on for a repeat slam wise. That’s not that low a probability to me. As for Novak the way he tanked against Thiem tells me that this has gone way past being a physical issue. Not saying he’s done, but he has a heck of a lot more work to do than Murray. Meanwhile a lot of young guys have built up their confidence and experience and aren’t going to see him as some invincible dude. He has to rebuild that aura and that’s not easy. My point is that his path to contest Fedal will be tough and it’s not clear to me that when the dust settles he’ll be left standing.
I agree with what you say about Djokovic and this past season, with the match v. Thiem being particularly shocking, in terms of lack of mental motivation. As a Nadal fan, when I speculate about how he's coming back, or not, or how fast, I sometimes get accused of wishful thinking. I won't pretend that I don't have a certain animus towards him, as the chief bugaboo to my favorite, but last 12 months + playing left all of us scratching our heads. I've said before that I think they biggest question in men's tennis is how Nole comes back. As @El Dude says, above, we just don't know. So I guess we reserve the question of which is more likely: Novak catching/passing Rafa, or Rafa catching/passing Roger until we see how folks are playing in the first few months of the season. I'm happy to have it, but for now there's too much "depending on" to make it even a plausible conversation. Obviously, confidence in one's own game is one thing to be regained. But I wonder if "aura" ever completely comes back. I don't think Roger and Rafa elicit the same awe they used to in other players, except maybe at Wimbledon and RG, respectively.
 

brokenshoelace

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How about this:

NOVAK vs. RAFA
Career: 26-24
2011-17 (since Novak entered peak): 19-8
2011-13 (Years Novak and Rafa were peaking): 10-6

NOVAK vs. ROGER
Career: 23-22
2011-17: 18-9

Hard to think of Novak being considerably below those two.

Nadal was peaking in 2011-2013? He spent like 8 months on the sidelines in between and was past his physical peak. Nadal's peak is difficult to define due to injuries and inconsistencies in terms of great seasons (2008. 2010, 2013, 2017) but Nadal was peaking in 2008. Nadal is also an interesting case in that he was much better on natural surfaces 2007-2010, but better on hard courts in 2013 and even now. This in large part is due to him having a more complete game in the second half of his career, but not moving nearly as well.

Also, if you're counting their matches post 2014, where Nadal was a shadow of himself up until this year, then I see no reason why you're not counting their matches between 2008 and 2010, when Novak was a grand slam winner already and a top 3 player in the world (this has always bothered me about the Nadal-Novak h2h. Why wouldn't we count their matches from that time?).

To be fair, I'm just nit-picking because I'm actually with you on the overall point re: Djokovic vs. Fedal. He's up there with them. Not in terms of accomplishments obviously (and if we're just looking at that then Nadal isn't in Federer's league either), but when he's been playing his best level, and he's done that A LOT over the past half a decade or so, he's in their league. He's beaten them more lately. but that's because when he got better they got worse, for the most part.
 
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Federberg

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Re: Novak in the future, we just don't know. But he was certainly the most dominant player from 2011-16 and, as I said, up until he started struggling in late 2016, I thought he was comparable to Rafa in overall career greatness. Rafa had two more Slams, but Novak had more weeks at #1 and all those WTFs. Now Rafa has jumped ahead again.

So in terms of career accomplishments, right now the order is clear: Roger, Rafa, Novak. But in terms of peak greatness it is not so clear. I think they are all similar, although in different ways.

I think when you talk about peak greatness which to be honest is a bit derived for me it’s hard to find much comparable to consecutive slam finals and semis and QFs. But even then when a guy is injured you can never know if they would have made it. It’s almost better to look at the number of times they’ve been upset early in their so called peak greatness eras. At least they were there. And you know how I feel about the playing with injuries stuff..
 

El Dude

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Nadal was peaking in 2011-2013? He spent like 8 months on the sidelines in between and was past his physical peak. Nadal's peak is difficult to define due to injuries and inconsistencies in terms of great seasons (2008. 2010, 2013, 2017) but Nadal was peaking in 2008. Nadal is also an interesting case in that he was much better on natural surfaces 2007-2010, but better on hard courts in 2013 and even now. This in large part is due to him having a more complete game in the second half of his career, but not moving nearly as well.

Also, if you're counting their matches post 2014, where Nadal was a shadow of himself up until this year, then I see no reason why you're not counting their matches between 2008 and 2010, when Novak was a grand slam winner already and a top 3 player in the world (this has always bothered me about the Nadal-Novak h2h. Why wouldn't we count their matches from that time?).

To be fair, I'm just nit-picking because I'm actually with you on the overall point re: Djokovic vs. Fedal. He's up there with them. Not in terms of accomplishments obviously (and if we're just looking at that then Nadal isn't in Federer's league either), but when he's been playing his best level, and he's done that A LOT over the past half a decade or so, he's in their league. He's beaten them more lately. but that's because when he got better they got worse, for the most part.

The 2011-13 range is when both Novak and Rafa were in what we could call peak range. I single that period out because it is the only time-frame that we get to see two of the "Holy Trinity" play each other over an extended period when both were within peak range. Unless you want to single out an "absolute peak moment," which would be hard to pinpoint and would never match up with any other player, probably. And I am counting all of their matches, just giving different ranges to consider. I count 2008-10 in their overall career numbers, but not peak as Novak hadn't yet reached his top form.

Rafa's peak range, as I see it, was 2008-13, which encapsulates his three best years (2008, 2010, 2013), and Novak's peak range is 2011-mid-2016, so the overlap is 2011-13.

I think we can agree that 2013 was a peak year for Rafa? And what about 2010? Some consider it his best overall year. 2011 was almost a carbon-copy of 2010 -- except for his record against Novak:

2010: 71-10 overall (87.7%); 2-0 vs. Novak; 69-10 vs everyone else (87.3%)
2011: 69-15 overall (82.1%); 0-6 vs. Novak; 69-9 vs everyone else (88.5%)

In other words, vs. everyone else other than Novak, Rafa was every bit as good as he was in 2010; the obvious conclusion being that Novak upped his game and had Rafa's number.

So now we have 2010-11 and 2013 being peak years for Rafa. The first half of 2012 was comparable to the previous couple years, then he missed about the last third of the year to injury. So 2012 was also peak level.

But yeah...your last paragraph is in agreement with my view and findings.
 
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Moxie

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Still, Dude, I think you don't address how you keep failing to mention anything Novak did (or didn't do) before 2011, even though he was #3 and a Slam winner from '08. It is a niggle, because I also don't begrudge him his slot in the era v. Fedal, but Broken made the point, too.
 

GameSetAndMath

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El Dude

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Still, Dude, I think you don't address how you keep failing to mention anything Novak did (or didn't do) before 2011, even though he was #3 and a Slam winner from '08. It is a niggle, because I also don't begrudge him his slot in the era v. Fedal, but Broken made the point, too.

This is simply not true, Moxie. I'm not failing to mention anything. I do address what he did before 2011, because I include their career H2H. What more do you want me to include? Its all there, all included. I'm just also singling out the era in which they were both within their peak so we can see how they match up, and Novak had a clear edge over Rafa.
 

Federberg

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This is simply not true, Moxie. I'm not failing to mention anything. I do address what he did before 2011, because I include their career H2H. What more do you want me to include? Its all there, all included. I'm just also singling out the era in which they were both within their peak so we can see how they match up, and Novak had a clear edge over Rafa.
Have to agree with Moxie. Seems to me you are giving Novak a pass pre 2011. Because he failed to win another slam from 2008 he wasn’t at his peak? Or maybe Fedal was simply better. I have no problem seeing that Nadal had an amazing year in 2011 that was overwhelmed by Novak being better. It cuts both ways. Just because you’re at your peak doesn’t mean you win everything. Novak doesn’t get a pass because his results in 08 - 09 weren’t up to standard.are you saying his win in 08 was a fluke?
 

mrzz

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..hhmmmm two folded question here: yes Djokovic results pre-2011 matter. But, if El Dude would repeat his Nadal 2010-2011 analysis with Djokovic, that is, to compare his numbers against the rest of the field (excluding Federer too, since we're comparing with Fedal), I bet that his numbers got extremely better in 2011 (not only compared to 2010, but to 2008 and 2009 too). His increase in level in 2011 was visible and undeniable.
 

Federberg

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..hhmmmm two folded question here: yes Djokovic results pre-2011 matter. But, if El Dude would repeat his Nadal 2010-2011 analysis with Djokovic, that is, to compare his numbers against the rest of the field (excluding Federer too, since we're comparing with Fedal), I bet that his numbers got extremely better in 2011 (not only compared to 2010, but to 2008 and 2009 too). His increase in level in 2011 was visible and undeniable.

That would be interesting to see, but I’m not just going to assume it. Numbers vs the field excluding other members of the trio would have some real value
 

El Dude

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Again, I am not giving Novak a pass before 2011, just pointing out that he hadn't yet reached his peak - which is factual. Look at the results! How is looking at career h2h giving him a pass?

He was definitely at a high level from 2008-2010, but didn't reach his peak form until 2011.
 
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Federberg

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Again, I am not giving Novak a pass before 2011, just pointing out that he hadn't yet reached his peak - which is factual. Look at the results! How is looking at career h2h giving him a pass?

He was definitely at a high level from 2008-2010, but didn't reach his peak form until 2011.
What were his numbers excluding Fedal? You can’t make that statement without the evidence