Who can beat Nadal at RG 2019?

[GameSetAndMath]

It's too early to talk about this now
.

I agree. May be Nadalites have given up on all other events of 2019 already. They are putting all their eggs on this one basket of RG.

 

[El Dude]

I love @mrzz's response and in some ways he said some things that I'm almost but not quite ready to say - like that Fedal are done winning majors. In particular, I wouldn't count out Rafa. But I do think that if he doesn't win AO or RG, he might very well be done. Wimbledon is always a long-shot and come USO I think we're going to see a surge of contenders in which anything can happen.

I also am not quite as bullish on Thiem, although less bearish than many here. I can see a scenario where he wins RG: He plays his heart out the entire tournament, he or someone else upsets Novak, and then he faces a somewhat hobbled or aging Rafa and plays the match of his life. I could happen - and in more than a Dumb & Dumber "So you're saying there's a chance" sort of way.

In the end, though, I agree that it is too soon to really say. We need to see how Rafa comes back from injury, and particularly how he looks in clay season. I think at some point he's going to come back from one of his injury hiatuses and not be able to find his peak level with regularity. It may or may not be 2019, but we'll know more come April. I wouldn't bet against him, but also wouldn't be surprised if mrzz is right and 2018 RG was the last.

 

[Moxie]

I agree. May be Nadalites have given up on all other events of 2019 already. They are putting all their eggs on this one basket of RG.

If you noticed in the OP, it was my attempt at moving a conversation out of the ATP finals thread. Not really so much luck, but I did try.

 

[mrzz]

Only thing is I don't see why you calculate that Federer and Nadal quit winning Majors at essentially the exact same moment.

But I made that prediction just to please you, my friend!!!!

Well, not quite, unfortunately... It is basically a coincidence -- an interesting one, surely, but a coincidence. I think Federer dropped his level earlier (and harder) than Nadal. That's why before Wimbledon I already guessed that Federer would not win more majors... in Nadal's case, his actual form was above Federer's... but, on the other hand, Nadal has his ever-present injuries to deal with. To come back from those is always a process. His main window of opportunity is around RG, so even if Federer dropped his level earlier, calendar conditions put their last majors just after one another.

But of course they can still win. There are only three guys out there that you can safely say that "know" how to win majors, and they are still bloody good. But at least for me is clear that they are bellow their best. Of course, a tennis career is made of constants ups and downs. At some point, however, the ups just stop coming.

 

[El Dude]

If tennis (and decline, in particular) was strictly linear, @mrzz, then I would agree that Roger is done and Rafa could be. But we've seen this before. I know, Roger is ancient and Rafa is old (tennis-wise). But we counted Roger out in 2013 and 2016, and now again in 2018-19. Why can't he surge again?

He didn't win anything in 2014-15 mainly because of Novak, who beat him in three Slam finals. Novak wasn't playing well when he won his three in 2017-18. So for Roger to get passed Novak in 2019, one or both of two things need to happen:
1) Novak needs to stumble again.
2) Roger needs to find his 2017 form, at least for a single tournament (e.g. 2019 AO or Wimbledon).

I think both are possible. Likely? Probably not, but possible.

As for Rafa, let's see how things look in April. We've counted him out a ton of times too. But we'll know a lot more once he starts hitting clay. I'm not counting AO out either, but I suspect he'll be too rusty to do too much damage.

 

[Moxie]

The bad news for Roger at the moment is the deterioration of his backhand, which was critical to his resurgence.

 

[Moxie]

If tennis (and decline, in particular) was strictly linear, @mrzz, then I would agree that Roger is done and Rafa could be. But we've seen this before. I know, Roger is ancient and Rafa is old (tennis-wise). But we counted Roger out in 2013 and 2016, and now again in 2018-19. Why can't he surge again?

He didn't win anything in 2014-15 mainly because of Novak, who beat him in three Slam finals. Novak wasn't playing well when he won his three in 2017-18. So for Roger to get passed Novak in 2019, one or both of two things need to happen:
1) Novak needs to stumble again.
2) Roger needs to find his 2017 form, at least for a single tournament (e.g. 2019 AO or Wimbledon).

I think both are possible. Likely? Probably not, but possible.

As for Rafa, let's see how things look in April. We've counted him out a ton of times too. But we'll know a lot more once he starts hitting clay. I'm not counting AO out either, but I suspect he'll be too rusty to do too much damage.

If Roger was able to come back with no rust to AO in 2017, at 35, then why not Rafa at 32? They've rather proven that a break is a good thing, past 30. And Roger didn't take one. I'll give you that Novak is looking formidable, but Rafa will go into the AO at #2. If he's fresh and healthy, he could do very well.

 

[El Dude]

If Roger was able to come back with no rust to AO in 2017, at 35, then why not Rafa at 32? They've rather proven that a break is a good thing, past 30. And Roger didn't take one. I'll give you that Novak is looking formidable, but Rafa will go into the AO at #2. If he's fresh and healthy, he could do very well.

Because they're very different players. Doesn't Rafa usually need to play himself into form? I remember in 2013 when he came back and lost to Zeballos, then went on to have one of his greatest years.

But sure, maybe Rafa plays himself into form quickly at the 250 warmup and early rounds. I think the question is whether him being older than in the past (e.g. 2013) means longer time to work off rust. This is his first significant amount of missed time since 2014 when he was 28, and we all know how 2015 went.

Anyhow, I think we're going to get some surprises from the Next Gen - some big name upsets.

 

[Moxie]

Because they're very different players. Doesn't Rafa usually need to play himself into form? I remember in 2013 when he came back and lost to Zeballos, then went on to have one of his greatest years.

But sure, maybe Rafa plays himself into form quickly at the 250 warmup and early rounds. I think the question is whether him being older than in the past (e.g. 2013) means longer time to work off rust. This is his first significant amount of missed time since 2014 when he was 28, and we all know how 2015 went.

Anyhow, I think we're going to get some surprises from the Next Gen - some big name upsets.

You're parsing a bit here and there with the time off in 2016, and he did come back pretty well in 2017. But OK. You're the one who says that we can't say much for the past. Time will tell, I guess.

 

[El Dude]

I'm not trying to doomsay for Nadal and have said repeatedly that I've learned never to count him out. But at some point age has to catch up with him. I also think a resurgent Novak coupled with a rising Next Gen class and things will be harder for Rafa in 2019 than they were in 2017-18.

Its a basic reality of athletes: the older you are, the longer it takes to get back to form. This is why hangovers are worse when you're 35 vs 25 .

 

[Carol]

It's funny to see how much Roger's fans would like to see Novak winning RG
Ok guys, before to make predictions let's go to see what 2019 is going to bring us and I hope from starting to see better competition than we can see now when Novak is looking like "tarzan" under the low level of the Tour. We hope to see Murray, Wawrinka, Delpo, Nadal and others playing healthy (I have not any idea about Roger because his age and I don't see him doing that incredible 2017 any more) and the youngest ones doing much better roll in the big tournaments, otherwise of course Novak will can continue playing with all the confidence and of course very confortable like he is doing now and like he did in 2015.
But let's go first to see the AO and we'll see in what conditions the Tour will be, I hope to see much better competition

 

[Moxie]

I'm not trying to doomsay for Nadal and have said repeatedly that I've learned never to count him out. But at some point age has to catch up with him. I also think a resurgent Novak coupled with a rising Next Gen class and things will be harder for Rafa in 2019 than they were in 2017-18.

Its a basic reality of athletes: the older you are, the longer it takes to get back to form. This is why hangovers are worse when you're 35 vs 25 .

So why did Roger drop back into such great form at 35 in 2017? He barely played a tune-up before he won the AO. Is that Roger is just special? I really suspect you lot just think so. (PS: I'm not implying anything. I'm seriously just asking why the assessment doesn't apply to him.)

 

[El Dude]

So why did Roger drop back into such great form at 35 in 2017? He barely played a tune-up before he won the AO. Is that Roger is just special? I really suspect you lot just think so. (PS: I'm not implying anything. I'm seriously just asking why the assessment doesn't apply to him.)

Please quit with the "you lot," Moxie. You know I find the partisan battles tedious.

But yeah, it is a mystery - how Roger attained the level he did at the 2017 AO. I think he was as surprised as anyone else. And yes, he is special. So is Rafa. Novak too. These three are outliers to normal rules for tennis players.

 

[Front242]

So why did Roger drop back into such great form at 35 in 2017? He barely played a tune-up before he won the AO. Is that Roger is just special? I really suspect you lot just think so. (PS: I'm not implying anything. I'm seriously just asking why the assessment doesn't apply to him.)

He said it was the only time on tour he had enough time to practice for 6 months with his new racquet. He's been using it for around 5 years now but the season is so long they literally never get enough time to adjust to such changes and when he first started using it in 2013 his back was kaput. Lengthy time off allowed him try new things like hitting through his backhand and being more aggressive on returns.

And last but definitely not least, at such an advanced age for someone playing such a physically demanding sport, the long break meant he came back rejuvenated and fresh as a daisy like never before. Nothing too hard to believe there.

 

[mrzz]

If tennis (and decline, in particular) was strictly linear, @mrzz, then I would agree that Roger is done and Rafa could be. But we've seen this before. I know, Roger is ancient and Rafa is old (tennis-wise). But we counted Roger out in 2013 and 2016, and now again in 2018-19. Why can't he surge again?

He didn't win anything in 2014-15 mainly because of Novak, who beat him in three Slam finals. Novak wasn't playing well when he won his three in 2017-18. So for Roger to get passed Novak in 2019, one or both of two things need to happen:
1) Novak needs to stumble again.
2) Roger needs to find his 2017 form, at least for a single tournament (e.g. 2019 AO or Wimbledon).

I think both are possible. Likely? Probably not, but possible.

As for Rafa, let's see how things look in April. We've counted him out a ton of times too. But we'll know a lot more once he starts hitting clay. I'm not counting AO out either, but I suspect he'll be too rusty to do too much damage.

I agree that tennis is not linear -- specially the results. But I never implied that -- if you look at my above post, you will see that I am explicitly taking the account the ups and downs, that is, instead of linear, I am taking that tennis is kind of sinusoidal. And as we agree, at some point your ups either don't show up again, or are just not high enough.

But, sure, they both surely can come back strong. I am not getting in that "board mood" where someone is always "100 %" this or that will/will not happen. If you look at the results and nothing more, they both have showed time and again that they can come back strong.

The thing is that I see both in Federer and Nadal a real decline in their overall level. Those ups and downs have some kid of modulation, and I guess they are both oscillating around a lower level (each in their own way).

Funny you mentioned (in a later post to Moxie) Nadal's comeback in 2013, as I have it in mind all the time. I saw Nadal live in São Paulo that year (the tournament following Viña del Mar where he lost to Zeballos). He won that tournament beating Nalbandian in the final (that I saw on TV), but I saw him play Berclocq (quarters, I guess) on the stadium. It was a fantastic experience seeing him live, sure, but he was clearly far away from his peak yet. There might be one counter-example here and there, but the overall rule is that he does need the time to get back to form. And time, this time, is not on his side.

 

[Carol]

Decline? I've heard that 'story' a long time ego and later Nadal won 3 more GS and also Federer even this last one after 35. Injury doesn't mean decline, age yes, it's tp compare pears with apples

 

[Front242]

Decline? I've heard that 'story' a long time ego and later Nadal won 3 more GS and also Federer even this last one after 35. Injury doesn't mean decline, age yes, it's tp compare pears with apples

Age and injury are directly related. Nadal has had more frequent injuries as he's become older but the most important thing to note is it takes much longer to recover from injury as you get older. For example, if Federer has another episode of back pain his career is over as he can't write off another whole year at 37..

 

[Moxie]

He said it was the only time on tour he had enough time to practice for 6 months with his new racquet. He's been using it for around 5 years now but the season is so long they literally never get enough time to adjust to such changes and when he first started using it in 2013 his back was kaput. Lengthy time off allowed him try new things like hitting through his backhand and being more aggressive on returns.

And last but definitely not least, at such an advanced age for someone playing such a physically demanding sport, the long break meant he came back rejuvenated and fresh as a daisy like never before. Nothing too hard to believe there.

You're so afraid that I'm accusing him of something that you've missed the point. I'm questioning El Dude on why he thinks Fed can come back fast after a break at 35 and Nadal can't at 32.

 

[Front242]

You're so afraid that I'm accusing him of something that you've missed the point. I'm questioning El Dude on why he thinks Fed can come back fast after a break at 35 and Nadal can't at 32.

Afraid? I couldn't give a shit if people do as there's way less to go on than accusing other players and that's already been discussed to death. For the record, I see no reason Nadal can't come back fast seeing as he did it already this year. Historically, he's skipped events multiple times and still gobbled up almost all of the clay titles.

His current ailment is nothing more than a precautionary break because they think he could possibly tear an ab muscle if he played but none were strained or hurt. In that respect there's absolutely zero reason for concern other than lack of play. A few matches against donkey players is all he needs to get going.

 

[Moxie]

Afraid? I couldn't give a shit if people do as there's way less to go on than accusing other players and that's already been discussed to death. For the record, I see no reason Nadal can't come back fast seeing as he did it already this year. Historically, he's skipped events multiple times and still gobbled up almost all of the clay titles.

His current ailment is nothing more than a precautionary break because they think he could possibly tear an ab muscle if he played but none were strained or hurt. In that respect there's absolutely zero reason for concern other than lack of play. A few matches against donkey players is all he needs to get going.

Just to be clear, I think the ab was strained, so he was advised to stop, lest he tear it. And then, as you said elsewhere, he took the opportunity to have a procedure on his ankle.