What on Earth is going on in the world today? It's gone mad

[britbox]

I don't support Putin, but I find him intriguing. I also have the view he is a strong leader and good for Russia (if you are Russian). He's smart and picks battles he know he can win to further his long term agenda. (His long term agenda is for Russia to dominate the ex-Soviet states and reclaim what he regards as the Russian Empire).

I disagree on the Crimea with you though. It is really Russian and Sevastopal is a traditional Russian fortress going back centuries. You should let that one go buddy. The people don't want to be part of the Ukraine however you want to slice or dice it. It's a russian enclave, no two ways about it.

As a "westerner" my view probably differs from yours in that I don't regard the Ukraine as part of the west and never will. Crimea even less so. My view of the west stretches as far as the Polish border. I don't regard any part of Russia as European, even though Moscow and St Petersburg are officially in Europe. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are kind of a half way house to me - if they are pro-European, then sure welcome them with open arms and protect them via NATO.

Russia will only agitate in those states, a bit like Clinton (Mrs) did when she went on a state visit to Moscow and met with their NGO's and opposition leaders. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. No way on earth, Russia will invade Lithuania or Poland. They aren't strong enough and NATO would never let the happen... which is good.

 

[Kieran]

Again, we agree in much here, but Crimea is part of Ukraine, given to them in way of things by Kruschev.Now, you may think this was wrong, and maybe it was, but it was legal - according to how they did things then - and it's legality was reinforced by agreement with Russia in 1992.

If they want to join Russia, that's one thing. But this referendum was illegal because it wasn't ratified by the Ukraine parliament. Again, you can argue against the incumbents but this is the law they live under, regardless of who is in charge. It was a plebiscite at gunpoint and there was always going to be one result.

Do you think NATO would go to war for Lithuania? If Putin's ambitions are as you say, then the Baltic States have every reason to be worried...

 

[britbox]

Again, we agree in much here, but Crimea is part of Ukraine, given to them in way of things by Kruschev.Now, you may think this was wrong, and maybe it was, but it was legal - according to how they did things then - and it's legality was reinforced by agreement with Russia in 1992.

If they want to join Russia, that's one thing. But this referendum was illegal because it wasn't ratified by the Ukraine parliament. Again, you can argue against the incumbents but this is the law they live under, regardless of who is in charge. It was a plebiscite at gunpoint and there was always going to be one result.

Do you think NATO would go to war for Lithuania? If Putin's ambitions are as you say, then the Baltic States have every reason to be worried...

If it happened right now then yes, I think NATO would take military action over Lithuania. There will be lines in the sand on both sides (and I'm pretty sure outside of public barkings, both sides will know what they are). Those lines might get withdrawn over time...but as it stands today - no way Putin would even consider Lithuania... and if he did there would have to be a military response from NATO.

The west knew overstepping the mark with regard to Crimea was crossing that line and the Russians will equally know the same applies with Lithuania. Don't overestimate the Russian military - they can't afford afford a major military conflict with NATO.

Russia won't go anywhere near Kiev, Eastern Europe or the baltic states. (Maybe Estonia in years to come, but not right now). Putin is a master at playing RISK but he isn't an idiot.

 

[Kieran]

Estonia is in the EU and NATO.

Just on a tangent, I'm reading another of Tom Holland's excellent history books, Millennium, and he suggests that in the 11th century, Normans rowed down the big rivers from Sweden the Great to Kiev. The name Rowers - or Rus - was applied to them, hence the name Russia. In this scenario, they're distant relations of the "Northmen" who settled in Normandy.

It's been disputed, but it's also a very strong theory as to the roots of the peoples of this region...

 

[britbox]

I didn't realise Estonia was in NATO. So scratch the previous comment. Putin won't risk a direct confrontation with a NATO member.

 

[Kieran]

You know, I maybe pessimistic but I don't believe that NATO would go to war over Estonia. They'd set up a contact group first, send some feminist bureaucrats in to see if Estonia fulfils the criteria of having enough women in their army, then they'd check the handwriting on the Estonian signature to join NATO, find out it was probably a Russian guy, ask him if he needs five years to think about it and change his mind, start a war in Qatar over the World Cup alcohol ban ("This War is Sponsored by Miller-Lite") and generally mooch about with diplomatic finger-wagging and legal niceties before firing a single shot in anger...

 

[britbox]

^ Nah, they'd have to. (Your post was funny though). Otherwise NATO would become a laughing stock. It would have major global implications. NATO's line in the sand should be the Baltics, Poland and the Balkans. The Ukraine is a horrendous mess even without the Russian angle. Let the IMF/World Bank/ UN worry about that. (The Ukraine will be far worse off than they were with the Russian deal by the way, but that's their problem. Europe should keep them at arms length).

 

[TsarMatt]

Poland are really anxious about what's been happening in Ukraine at the moment. They're speeding up their defence-missile system project. I mean, Putin would never dare touch Poland, but you can't blame them for being a bit concerned.

 

[TsarMatt]

Why do people think Putin is going to pull a Stalin and try to steal some more land? He's not dumb.

 

[Kieran]

Hitler wasn't dumb, until he was...

 

[TsarMatt]

Hitler wasn't dumb, until he was...

True, but Putin isn't going to try and steal anymore land, especially in Eastern European states that already have a NATO presence. I mean, I can't see him doing so. He managed to save his naval fleet on the Black Sea peninsula which was his initial goal, and I think it'll stop there. Worst case scenario -- maybe Ukraine will split into two, with its Eastern bloc joining Russia, but even that is hyperbole on my end.

 

[britbox]

Hitler wasn't dumb, until he was...

True, but Putin isn't going to try and steal anymore land, especially in Eastern European states that already have a NATO presence. I mean, I can't see him doing so. He managed to save his naval fleet on the Black Sea peninsula which was his initial goal, and I think it'll stop there. Worst case scenario -- maybe Ukraine will split into two, with its Eastern bloc joining Russia, but even that is hyperbole on my end.

Agree entirely. Putin has what he wants. I think he'll agitate things indirectly in other cities but there won't be any overt military action.

 

[britbox]

Hitler wasn't dumb, until he was...

That's more of a lesson for western powers in regards to Russia.

 

[Kieran]

Hitler wasn't dumb, until he was...

That's more of a lesson for western powers in regards to Russia.

There is.

And there's a reminder of how brutal and belligerent tyrants still behave. Putin is an evolving narrative. We'll see how dumb he might become over the next few years. He already fits the pattern, both at home and in Ukraine and Georgia...

 

[TsarMatt]

Can Russia get anymore isolated? Even the ousted Ukrainian President, who was very pro-Moscow, condemned Putin's annexation of the Crimea....

Apparently there is an app available that can help you boycott exported Russian goods, as a way to impact their economy.

 

[TsarMatt]

Oh, and did anyone here about that shooting in the US?

 

[Moxie]

Oh, and did anyone here about that shooting in the US?

Given our gun culture, I think you have to be more specific.

 

[DarthFed]

Oh, and did anyone here about that shooting in the US?

Given our gun culture, I think you have to be more specific.

Ain't that the truth, but pretty sure he is referring to Fort Hood (again).

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Oh, and did anyone here about that shooting in the US?

yes it was mentioned..but it was like "another massacre in the u.s" type story. its happened before its gonna happen again.

 

[britbox]

Can Russia get anymore isolated? Even the ousted Ukrainian President, who was very pro-Moscow, condemned Putin's annexation of the Crimea....

Apparently there is an app available that can help you boycott exported Russian goods, as a way to impact their economy.

And what Russian goods do you buy exactly? Unless you're in europe and prepared to boycott energy and live via candle light for months then it has virtually zero effect. For all the grandstanding by European nations, nobody would have the balls or will to tread that path.

Putin has outmanoeuvred the west, the Crimea is gone... move on.