What on Earth is going on in the world today? It's gone mad

[Murat Baslamisli]

Why do Quebec want to separate? I mean, there's no ethnicity issue, is there? Scotland is having a referendum this year that might finally end the United Kingdom, which will be strange (although it's unlikely to succeed).

Still, in these polls, the voters have a choice, unlike Crimea...

It is a cultural issue really. The people that are for separation feel that they speak a different language (French) and culturally they are different from the English speaking Canada, which is pretty much the rest of Canada. There are always personal agendas of politicians that fuel this fire as well, but that would take way too long to discuss.

I am aware of the Scottish referendum coming up. I wonder how it is polling, what is the general tendency?

 

[Kieran]

I think the Scottish one will be rejected.

What do Quebec want? A republic of Quebec? Are any other dominantly French regions in Canada agitating for a split?

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Quebec , well, some people in Quebec, wants to be their own independent country. Quebec IS the only dominantly French region, with maybe New Brunswick province a distant second. Quebec already has already a lot of laws within Canada that almost makes it an autonomous province (almost) but some want total independence.

 

[Kieran]

Quebec is quite a large region. I'm always curious about this, that places like Sciotland and Quebec, if they achieve independence, what are their plans for things like currency, central bank, etc. Scotland are facing the fact that they'll most likely be disallowed from using sterling as a currency and would have to create their own, or join the feeble, dastardly euro.

Except that Scotland isn't a member of the EU, Great Britain is. And so unless England, Wales and Northern Ireland decide to retain the name of Great Britain, or the UK, they'll all have to re-apply for membership of the EU. But Scotland, certainly will have to.

Plus, they'll inherit their share of debts, and Scotland isn't a wealthy area. Militarily, they'll be dependent on England. There's a lot they need to think about. I imagine Quebec would be the same...

 

[britbox]

Why do Quebec want to separate? I mean, there's no ethnicity issue, is there? Scotland is having a referendum this year that might finally end the United Kingdom, which will be strange (although it's unlikely to succeed).

Still, in these polls, the voters have a choice, unlike Crimea...

It is a cultural issue really. The people that are for separation feel that they speak a different language (French) and culturally they are different from the English speaking Canada, which is pretty much the rest of Canada. There are always personal agendas of politicians that fuel this fire as well, but that would take way too long to discuss.

I am aware of the Scottish referendum coming up. I wonder how it is polling, what is the general tendency?

^ I think the early indications are that Scotland will remain within the UK.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

think its 6 months from today..but its already a yawnfest.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Whose idea was it to have a referendum in Scotland? Is there a certain party or a group pushing it?

 

[britbox]

The Scottish National Party are pushing it.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, the SNP. And Sean Connery too. Scotland has never been in braver or better hands...

 

[shawnbm]

Crimea referendum is done and Crimean troops storm Ukrainian military post with no resistance and raise the Russian flag. Obama, Biden and Clinton are talking a lot. Meanwhile, Ukraine's leaders (or are they in the distinct minority) are talking about freezing Russian assets in banks and LORD knows what they may try with Gazprom. Things are getting very interesting over there above the Black Sea, but Crimea is not going anywhere--it is where its people want to be. Putin has got the upper hand there, just as he did with Syria and Assad's government. The USA should stop talking and threatening--just impose the sanctions and move on.

 

[shawnbm]

Yeah, the SNP. And Sean Connery too. Scotland has never been in braver or better hands...

I just fail to see how Scotland could do this and not be economically disemboweled. I mean really? They wish to tax the citizenry for a military, establish a central banking system, write their own tax code, work out treaties all over the world and get into currency analysis and all that? I just don't get it.

 

[Kieran]

I'm not too sure the SNP's argument is well thought-out, Shawn, and this is why Britbox is right: they'll be defeated. The Bank of England saying they most likely will be disconnected from sterling has sent a tremor through their ranks, and then there's the huge issue of the EU. Frankly, who will Scotland trade with, how will they join - and at what level - what will Scotland's debts look like, these are significant questions that need to be answered...

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

The SNP are out of their tree, :s

they were told that no way would an independent Scotland be keeping the pound but the SNP still are claiming they could keep it.

 

[britbox]

Crimea referendum is done and Crimean troops storm Ukrainian military post with no resistance and raise the Russian flag. Obama, Biden and Clinton are talking a lot. Meanwhile, Ukraine's leaders (or are they in the distinct minority) are talking about freezing Russian assets in banks and LORD knows what they may try with Gazprom. Things are getting very interesting over there above the Black Sea, but Crimea is not going anywhere--it is where its people want to be. Putin has got the upper hand there, just as he did with Syria and Assad's government. The USA should stop talking and threatening--just impose the sanctions and move on.

I can't see the Ukraine freezing Russian assets on any scale. I think they'd be strongly advised not to by the west. Otherwise, Russia will just cut off the gas... and maybe the rest of Eastern Ukraine will move onto Putin's agenda.

Bottom line here is that Putin has played a chess game he can't possibly lose. Nobody will take military action (The Ukraine aren't in a position to do so), nobody will inflict tough sanctions (the EU need the gas) and the Crimea wants to be part of Russia. There will be a handful of meaningless sanctions, a load of tough talk and next to no action.

To be frank, that's the wisest thing for them to do. You don't got out on a limb for a bunch of crackpots in Kiev. There is nothing in this for the west.... absolutely NADA.

Shawnbm is right... nothing to see here (for the west)... move on.

 

[britbox]

Yeah, the SNP. And Sean Connery too. Scotland has never been in braver or better hands...

I just fail to see how Scotland could do this and not be economically disemboweled. I mean really? They wish to tax the citizenry for a military, establish a central banking system, write their own tax code, work out treaties all over the world and get into currency analysis and all that? I just don't get it.

I don't think the majority of scots get it either. That's why they'll vote no.

 

[Kieran]

Crimea referendum is done and Crimean troops storm Ukrainian military post with no resistance and raise the Russian flag. Obama, Biden and Clinton are talking a lot. Meanwhile, Ukraine's leaders (or are they in the distinct minority) are talking about freezing Russian assets in banks and LORD knows what they may try with Gazprom. Things are getting very interesting over there above the Black Sea, but Crimea is not going anywhere--it is where its people want to be. Putin has got the upper hand there, just as he did with Syria and Assad's government. The USA should stop talking and threatening--just impose the sanctions and move on.

I can't see the Ukraine freezing Russian assets on any scale. I think they'd be strongly advised not to by the west. Otherwise, Russia will just cut off the gas... and maybe the rest of Eastern Ukraine will move onto Putin's agenda.

Bottom line here is that Putin has played a chess game he can't possibly lose. Nobody will take military action (The Ukraine aren't in a position to do so), nobody will inflict tough sanctions (the EU need the gas) and the Crimea wants to be part of Russia. There will be a handful of meaningless sanctions, a load of tough talk and next to no action.

To be frank, that's the wisest thing for them to do. You don't got out on a limb for a bunch of crackpots in Kiev. There is nothing in this for the west.... absolutely NADA.

Shawnbm is right... nothing to see here (for the west)... move on.

Actually, for the west there's plenty to see here. Russia have invaded a sovereign state and grabbed land through an illegal plebiscite under the guise of "protecting" ethnic Russians. They're throwing their weight around in the Lithuanian port town of Klaipeda, where there are anonymous agitations coming from within the small Russian community to accede and join the Russian Federation. The Russians have upped the ante there by suspending some trade through this port.

I've been in touch with Lithuanians both here and in Vilnius and they're very concerned about the pressure they're experiencing, and they don't even have a huge Russian community. Latvia and Estonia do. All three are members of the EU and NATO. So this definitely affects the west.

This is why both Poland and Lithuania have alerted NATO. Tension in eastern Europe is rising - and the cause of this tension is Russian expansionist aggression in both Georgia and Ukraine...

 

[britbox]

Re: Klaipeda - Protests are ok unless they are pro-Russian?

Let the people decide brother. Ukraine are moving west. If other states/regions move east with popularist backing then just let the cookie crumble. The Russians are playing a game employed by the west for a long time - economic muscle, funding NGOs etc...

The biggest mistake (and I think we're on the same page) made by the west followed the break-up of the Soviet Union. The west was in far more powerful position then. Now it's largely broke and it's reputation around the globe is at a low ebb.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

it makes me laugh listening to sean connery wittering on about being in favour of Scottish independence...:snigger

...all the way from his home in the bahamas. :s he is hardly up to speed with what life is like in Scotland.

 

[britbox]

it makes me laugh listening to sean connery wittering on about being in favour of Scottish independence...:snigger

...all the way from his home in the bahamas. :s he is hardly up to speed with what life is like in Scotland.

Well there were (allegedly unfounded) rumours that Sean was going senile. I think Michael Caine had to retract a few statements.

Either way, it is rather amusing that he is the SNP poster boy residing overseas.

 

[Kieran]

Re: Klaipeda - Protests are ok unless they are pro-Russian?

Let the people decide brother. Ukraine are moving west. If other states/regions move east with popularist backing then just let the cookie crumble. The Russians are playing a game employed by the west for a long time - economic muscle, funding NGOs etc...

The biggest mistake (and I think we're on the same page) made by the west followed the break-up of the Soviet Union. The west was in far more powerful position then. Now it's largely broke and it's reputation around the globe is at a low ebb.

A protest is fine if it's open and not sinister and not designed to entice a foreign tyrant from going abroad to "protect his own people". Seriously, this thing is no laughing matter in the Baltic states, where they're desperate to be free from the threat of Russia. It's an actual living fear. As for the "people deciding", they didn't decide in Crimea. They had two choices on the ballot card - and both led to Moscow.

I totally agree about the west after the break-up of the Soviet Union and to a very large extent I blame Clinton. Kinda like Obama, he's a guy who gets more of a free pass than Bush, but his administration took its eye off the ball just at the moment when they should have shown strong leadership to the world, and we see the results everywhere now.

By the way, I know you don't "support" Putin or agree with everything he does, but another area where I would agree with you is that his leadership is clear and aimed to further his own country's best interests. The west could do with lessons...