What on Earth is going on in the world today? It's gone mad

[Federberg]

^It's well established that the threat is to the 60+ demographic. This isn't about children. I'm not sure anyone here ever said anything differently.

^I have to say one of the single dumbest things right now is trying to pass off the seriousness of the collateral impact of this pandemic by comparing it to asbestos, car crashes, wars etc. I don't believe anyone here is panicking, there is simply a free exchange of information here. I find it amusing that there are some on here who want to represent themselves as the "calming" voice. If it gives them a boost to feel that way then please go ahead. Meanwhile we move on. There are consequences to what we are seeing that go far beyond the lethality of the pandemic. As with a natural disaster like a hurricane or earthquake, it's not just the initial deaths that we need to watch out for. How many people died during the hurricane in Puerto Rico? How many people died in the aftermath? The political, societal and economic implications that spill from this are what interest me in particular, and from that perspective the lethality is possibly one of the least relevant factors

 

[tented]

^It's well established that the threat is to the 60+ demographic. This isn't about children. I'm not sure anyone here ever said anything differently.

^I have to say one of the single dumbest things right now is trying to pass off the seriousness of the collateral impact of this pandemic by comparing it to asbestos, car crashes, wars etc. I don't believe anyone here is panicking, there is simply a free exchange of information here. I find it amusing that there are some on here who want to represent themselves as the "calming" voice. If it gives them a boost to feel that way then please go ahead. Meanwhile we move on. There are consequences to what we are seeing that go far beyond the lethality of the pandemic. As with a natural disaster like a hurricane or earthquake, it's not just the initial deaths that we need to watch out for. How many people died during the hurricane in Puerto Rico? How many people died in the aftermath? The political, societal and economic implications that spill from this are what interest me in particular, and from that perspective the lethality is possibly one of the least relevant factors

The DJI is down nearly 2,000 so far today. The economic repercussions could be serious at this point, right? I’m not an economist or financial expert, by any means, but this continual fall seems problematic.

 

[Federberg]

The DJI is down nearly 2,000 so far today. The economic repercussions could be serious at this point, right? I’m not an economist or financial expert, by any means, but this continual fall seems problematic.

I think the odds of a recession of some sort are really high at the moment. The scary thing is that the US is so far behind the curve that we don't know how bad things are over there. As things stand the global economy will be dented because China will surely have negative growth. Italy is down the crapper. And if Italy and China are in that state Germany is buggered which means Europe is. How can the US escape? And as I said we don't know what the reality is in the US. All I can say is that we are seeing technical levels being broken in the equity markets at the moment which imply we could be about to enter a bear trend. We've seen devastation in the oil markets which means that Shale producers in the US will be in a terrible state. We don't know what the derivative impact of that will be on the US credit markets, but as things stand it doesn't look good

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

^It's well established that the threat is to the 60+ demographic. This isn't about children. I'm not sure anyone here ever said anything differently.

^I have to say one of the single dumbest things right now is trying to pass off the seriousness of the collateral impact of this pandemic by comparing it to asbestos, car crashes, wars etc. I don't believe anyone here is panicking, there is simply a free exchange of information here. I find it amusing that there are some on here who want to represent themselves as the "calming" voice. If it gives them a boost to feel that way then please go ahead. Meanwhile we move on. There are consequences to what we are seeing that go far beyond the lethality of the pandemic. As with a natural disaster like a hurricane or earthquake, it's not just the initial deaths that we need to watch out for. How many people died during the hurricane in Puerto Rico? How many people died in the aftermath? The political, societal and economic implications that spill from this are what interest me in particular, and from that perspective the lethality is possibly one of the least relevant factors

But in a previous post you said "Murat this thing is an order of magnitude more lethal than the flu. " and asked me to question my information. I gave you all the links that I get my info from. I am not saying those links are 100% and they are not political websites, but like you said, we are sharing info here.
The "collateral impact" you are talking about , the economic implications and all...I agree with you . My business is already suffering. The question is , is the impact because of the reaction to what is going on? Is it proportional? It is fairly obvious that some believe the reaction is not even nearly enough, others believe it is the right reaction and some think it is a bit too much. Is it OK to discuss the reaction and what it is doing to the economy?

 

[Federberg]

But in a previous post you said "Murat this thing is an order of magnitude more lethal than the flu. " and asked me to question my information. I gave you all the links that I get my info from. I am not saying those links are 100% and they are not political websites, but like you said, we are sharing info here.
The "collateral impact" you are talking about , the economic implications and all...I agree with you . My business is already suffering. The question is , is the impact because of the reaction to what is going on? Is it proportional? It is fairly obvious that some believe the reaction is not even nearly enough, others believe it is the right reaction and some think it is a bit too much. Is it OK to discuss the reaction and what it is doing to the economy?

It's absolutely ok to discuss whatever you want. I guess that for my part, I find it tiresome reading or hearing from people who are dismissive about what is actually happening. I'm not saying you're one of those people, but there is a certain type of individual in these times who seems to take pride in being anti-fact/ anti-science as a philosophy. I have no truck with such people I find them cowardly, immoral and followers of a bad type of trend that we have seen happen time and time again in human history with no positive benefits. I will say however that the idea that whole countries are reacting in the way they are because of some sort of collective hysteria seems on it's face absurd to me.

 

[Jelenafan]

They are in my home town. He's been here a while making a movie with Baz Luhrmann.

Britbox I hope you kept a safe distance during the cocktail banter you had with Tom & Rita.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

It's absolutely ok to discuss whatever you want. I guess that for my part, I find it tiresome reading or hearing from people who are dismissive about what is actually happening. I'm not saying you're one of those people, but there is a certain type of individual in these times who seems to take pride in being anti-fact/ anti-science as a philosophy. I have no truck with such people I find them cowardly, immoral and followers of a bad type of trend that we have seen happen time and time again in human history with no positive benefits. I will say however that the idea that whole countries are reacting in the way they are because of some sort of collective hysteria seems on it's face absurd to me.

Fair enough. But you know by now that I am not dismissive, I am trying to find as much info as possible. CDC website is a good resource.
The doctor who identified the SARS virus thinks this should die down by June. Who knows. I hope everyone stays healthy. The economical impact is already huge. I do think though some calm is not the worst thing. My Costco is out of toilet paper FFS...That is not rational. That is just panic.

 

[Federberg]

I'm an NHS doctor treating coronavirus – you have no idea how bad things could get

If we go the way of Italy, we're going to run out of intensive care beds in two weeks

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Federberg]

some other bits and bobs...

Top US health official says coronavirus testing system is 'failing,' cases now confirmed in 44 states

A top U.S. health official said the country is "not really geared" to conduct the amount of testing for the coronavirus that will be required as the virus continues to spread across the nation.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Federberg]

 

[calitennis127]

I've no doubt that there are some morons on Twitter that fit that description, although I don't imagine that the majority of Democrats would be hoping for a global Pandemic and a complete crash of the economy just to get rid of Trump.

Then you are simply naïve and aren't aware of how they think. Democrats in the United States are not worried about the coronavirus. They are celebrating like kids on Christmas because they see this as what will bring down Trump. Just read Moxie's comments for starters and you can see that she is trying to hold her joy back like a sneeze at a job interview. In her mind this is perfect timing.

I think you're probably overestimating the influence of the American media in this case. Italy is in lockdown. That's 60 million people in a country where English isn't even the first language. What influence do you think the Washington Post had in that decision? I'd imagine close to nil.

I'm not saying the Washington Post gave Italian media a direct command to do something. I'm saying that the major media in most countries turn to the New York Times and Washington Post as the most trusted source of info for the global news cycle. If those two supposedly "credible" news sources had hyped the swine flu the same way in 2009, it would have had the same kind of impact.

Furthermore, Italy and China are just two countries. They aren't the entire world. The global panic is entirely the product of the NYT-Washington Post hysteria blasting into everyone's cell phone. This is one of the dumbest outbreaks of hysteria I have ever witnessed (second only to Russian collusion), but the problem with this one is that it can do serious, serious economic damage.

Likewise, on what scale would you imagine their influence is in China? (Given how the media is tightly controlled by the government).

This isn't about China. Of course the virus started there and has affected the most people there. This is about whether the world economy needs to be shut down for three months or more. That would not be happening were it not for the New York Times-WaPo propaganda tsunami.

 

[calitennis127]

ATP Tour suspended for 6 weeks...

Stupid decision. Very, very stupid.

 

[Federberg]

I'm saying that the major media in most countries turn to the New York Times and Washington Post as the most trusted source of info for the global news cycle.

You've made some preposterous statements over the years, but this one is right up there. Wow! Do you really think the rest of the world gives two shits about what the American media says? Seriously?? This is what you think drives policy actions? Lordy...

 

[calitennis127]

It's absolutely ok to discuss whatever you want. I guess that for my part, I find it tiresome reading or hearing from people who are dismissive about what is actually happening. I'm not saying you're one of those people,

Well I am. I'm right here.

but there is a certain type of individual in these times who seems to take pride in being anti-fact/ anti-science as a philosophy.

Oh yeah, I am really being "anti-fact" by pointing out how the numbers for swine flu in 2009 dwarfed what is going on with coronavirus but the New York Times and Washington Post at that time did not try to bring the global economy to a standstill because their god was in the White House.

That is so anti-fact. It is really anti-fact of me to point out that 12,500 Americans died from swine flu without Indian Wells and the NCAA Tournament being cancelled. So anti-fact.

I have no truck with such people I find them cowardly, immoral and followers of a bad type of trend that we have seen happen time and time again in human history with no positive benefits.

Are you referring to how 12,500 Americans and 575,000 people internationally died from swine flu while the Obama administration handled it casually? Were they "cowardly" in that instance?

But I'm sorry that you find me cowardly, immoral, and a follower of a bad type of trend in human history. With no positive benefits to boot.

I will say however that the idea that whole countries are reacting in the way they are because of some sort of collective hysteria seems on it's face absurd to me.

Of course. That is because you so deeply want Trump to lose in November and you see in this an opportunity to take him out. It's hard not to sense how much glee there is behind your posts. You're not hiding it well. You should try to control it a little bit more.

 

[calitennis127]

You've made some preposterous statements over the years, but this one is right up there. Wow! Do you really think the rest of the world gives two shits about what the American media says? Seriously??

Yes I do. Show me who in Western Europe does not hold the New York Times and Washington Post in the highest esteem.

This is what you think drives policy actions? Lordy...

It's not about a direct causal relationship. It's more so that the New York Times and Washington Post gin up the hysteria that becomes the soil for further policy actions to sprout up.

Was there anything like this reaction to swine flu in 2009 despite hundreds of thousands of deaths globally? Not even close. And that's because the NYT and "WaPo" were protecting their hero Barack Obama.

 

[Federberg]

Yes I do. Show me who in Western Europe does not hold the New York Times and Washington Post in the highest esteem.

Have you ever been to Western Europe? Do you even know what you're talking about. They are just newspapers. They are not held in higher esteem than some of the great papers over here. You American's need get it in your heads that the world doesn't revolve around you. As much as you like to think it does, most of us think that you're predominantly a parochial bunch of arrogant so and sos. Sorry to tell you

 

[calitennis127]

Just for everyone's perspective: as of this time, there are 33 deaths in the U.S. and a little over 1,000 reported cases. That is worth noting but not worth shutting the whole country's economy down for three months with a population of 327 million. This hysteria is absolutely ridiculous and I'm disappointed that Trump has caved into it and started to sound like that idiot Pence who he should not have picked for VP:

Pence says there's been 'irresponsible rhetoric' from people downplaying the coronavirus

 

[calitennis127]

Have you ever been to Western Europe?

Yes.

Do you even know what you're talking about.

Yes.

They are just newspapers. They are not held in higher esteem than some of the great papers over here. You American's need get it in your heads that the world doesn't revolve around you.

Lol.....I have zero - and I mean zero - pride in saying that the U.S. media sets the tone for the international news cycle. But it clearly does.

Look at how the BBC and The Guardian slavishly imitated the New York Times when it came to the idiotic Russian collusion hoax narrative. They showed zero independence of mind whatsoever. They repeated exactly what the New York Times and Washington Post were saying and tried to outdo them at the same game.

As much as you like to think it does, most of us think that you're predominantly a parochial bunch of arrogant so and sos.

Which it makes it even more of a shame that your media slavishly imitate the top American media.

But your opinion of Americans being "parochial" is simply a copy of standard Democratic Party opinion of their political opponents. Americans are no more parochial than the white losers in Western Europe, sorry to tell you . What's really funny about your ilk is that you think you are worldly and in particular that you understand the USA when you clearly do not. Just reading your comments (or Broken's comments) provides a perfect example of how confidence is not the same as substance. You both talk like you understand America inside-out but every time you each type a paragraph you flaunt your ignorance of the U.S.

 

[Federberg]

Good Lord! That was a nasty nasty market close. I spent the evening trying to find a level for an intra-day buy and it kept blowing through the lows. We are at levels we dismissed as very low probability just a week ago.This was a weird day, it was just full on liquidation. All the things you would have expected to be flight to safety proxies sold off as well which is interesting. It implies that even those who had protection trades on still had long equity positions, and they were forced to crystallise their profits on winning positions to mitigate their equity losses. The next few sessions are going to be interesting because you need people out there with the balls to take a punt but if everyone is feeling bruised you could just see gaps lower in equity markets. I hope some find this helpful, I"m not sure if what I'm saying makes much sense to non market participants. But basically it ain't good. The Bank of England and ECB took what limited steps they could to support the market and it was generally ignored. If central banks aren't having much of an impact anymore then the "Fed put" is gone

Note I'm not saying that's definitely the case I'm just saying that it's not pretty right now. Haven't seen anything like this since 2008

 

[mrzz]

There is a small chance that our beloved Brazilian president is infected. It may change complete my perception about this virus. Considering that his mental age is two years old, and his beliefs resemble the ones a 558 years old would have, that leaves him with something around (558+2)/2 = 280 years old of probable/expected age. Good prospect for a change.