What on Earth is going on in the world today? It's gone mad

[brokenshoelace]

One thing I absolutely agree with Cali on is that the idea that Trump is the only one to politicize the virus is ridiculous. The Democrats did it just as quickly and it's not really debatable.

 

[britbox]

But murat.....Britbox and Broken will have to lecture you on how all of those concerns are completely petty. Who cares if 61% of small business owners in Canada lose their life's work? That is the price to be paid for New York City having a disease outbreak. Sorry. The whole world needs to shut down for 5 months if something bad happens in New York City. If you don't accept that, you're just a bad person who wants millions to die.

What's hilarious is that neither Britbox or Broken have credited me for my fundamental assessment going back to early March: that the disease clearly wasn't deadly enough to annihilate the global economy over. As much as the alarmists want to pretend otherwise, that is now clearly the case. The coronavirus was not dangerous enough to warrant this kind of irrational and insane economic shutdown.

So I am eagerly awaiting their apology and acknowledgment of my fundamental assessment being correct. Why don't you guys just acknowledge that shutting down the global economy was not worth it over this virus? Are you finally willing to concede that these policies have been utterly irrational and insane?

For now, I'd like to share this tweet. Was stopping the global economy over a relatively small outbreak in New York City worth risking international famines? I guess for Britbox and Broken it was. This isn't big bad Fox News warning you of this now. This is the Federberg/Moxie network telling you what could be coming:

Lol. Just lol. Read your commentary at the beginning of March and it was a clusterfuck.

You were rambling on about Obama, The Washington Post, Swine flu... Guess what? There are a hell of a lot more than 33 dead and 4 times as many deaths in the US as swine flu.

You're making the same mistake now. This IS FAR FROM over. I'd be surprised if the US keeps this under 100,000 deaths... on the first wave alone.

If your genius ideas such as carrying on with sports seasons, huge gatherings, conferences, travel, etc continued, then fuck knows what the figure could have ended up like. I see you're still rambling on about the Washington Post... jeez.

As for the economic impact, I've always been mindful of it, but as I said somewhere in one of the two threads (and you agreed) - you couldn't sell the argument even if you wanted to.

What are you doing Government? All these people are dying? Nothing, but it will hypothetically save lives and jobs in the longer term.

No government could survive that pressure, even if true. Even your God agreed with that.

By the way, you might not have noticed... but neither Broken or I make US Federal Policy. We didn't shut your Economy or your borders. Donald Trump made that call. If you think it's such a bad call, then I'm afraid you'll have to hold him responsible for it.

 

[britbox]

I've had to explain why the May WTI futures contract went negative to a number of non market participants. Here's an explanation that perfectly describes the phenomenon in a way that a layman can understand. I thought it was absolutely fucking brilliant so thought I would share

Why WTI Crude Oil traded at minus -$37
Imagine the following...you pay $500 today and commit to receiving an escort at your house in 15 days. Cos your wife is traveling. This is called a futures contract.
Unfortunately, lockdown came and your wife will be home for the next 60 days.
You do not want this woman to show up at your house at all and try to pass this futures contract to someone else.
Only you cannot sell this commitment because nobody can receive the escort at home anymore. Everyone is in full storage (their balls) with wife.
To make matters worse, not even the pimp (Chicago Mercantile exchange) has more room to receive girls because his house is crowded with girls.
So you will pay anyone just to take the girl off your hands.
Do you now understand why oil has a negative price when the contract is delivered?

I love the analogy.

 

[britbox]

Canada has just about 2000 deaths from Covid. Ontario just about 650. A huge number of deaths are from old age homes. We did not know everything about this virus and probably still don't but one thing we knew from day one (almost) was that this virus kills the elderly. Our government, as opposed to protecting the most vulnerable from day one with mandatory isolations and quarantines for the older people, dealt with other stuff that may or may not have helped the situation. I still maintain life did not have to stop and a surgical strike was the way to go. 61% of small business owners in Canada say they will not survive another 2 months of being shut down. A lot of us are hanging by a thread .

Fair points. In Australia (and New Zealand), We're in an even better position than Canada and by proxy most other western civilizations. The majority of cases have been imported. Transmission locally doesn't seem to have a got a foothold (something I'm really curious about actually).

I don't think there is a one-size-fits-all solution, and for countries with the landmass of Australia, Canada, and the US, then more localized solutions might be a better fit. @Moxie alluded to that.

I hope the Canadian Government is looking after you, like The Australian Government is looking after us.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I love the analogy.

As someone who's worked extensively professionally and academically on derivatives, I absolutely love the analogy and will be stealing it.

 

[Jelenafan]

Canada has just about 2000 deaths from Covid. Ontario just about 650. A huge number of deaths are from old age homes. We did not know everything about this virus and probably still don't but one thing we knew from day one (almost) was that this virus kills the elderly. Our government, as opposed to protecting the most vulnerable from day one with mandatory isolations and quarantines for the older people, dealt with other stuff that may or may not have helped the situation. I still maintain life did not have to stop and a surgical strike was the way to go. 61% of small business owners in Canada say they will not survive another 2 months of being shut down. A lot of us are hanging by a thread .

Murat, you're mouthing what alot of my clients are saying, they can't afford an extended shut down. Small Business don't have for the most part huge liquidity nor access to lines of credit for the ever pressing Cash Flow. It's all about cash flow with small businesses.

I'm frustrated because there are so many unknown variables.
Why do some non elderly people who seemingly are low risk get critically ill? How many people are infected in an area and what percentage show symptoms and what percentage need hospitalization? Urban areas as opposed to rurual areas, how much more is the impact those areas, and so forth and so on. Is testing now ramped up to make analysis on how to open up the economy and in what stages?

In hindsight we will hopefully learn more how to proceed, but as the saying goes, "we're building the plane as we're flying". Unfortunately.

As far as population density, median age of populace, cultural traits, etc, Canada is not the US which is not Italy which is not Sweden which is not Mexico, and so forth and so on. So I agree that obviously not one size fits all.

It's hard to gauge what is too much or too little, but yes there is alot of severe economic fallout going on worldwide. Some of my friends have lost all the jobs in their household. Here in the states, having frontline workers in meat producing plants test positive for the covid without any safety protocols as to how to proceed , which necessitated shutting them down, shows that there are some inherent dangers that are still looming.

One of the things in my conspiracy addled mind these days is that the China's actual numbers were HUGE and that internal memos circulated to Governments reflected that added to the concern.

It's such a mess, isn't it??

 

[Federberg]

Deaths in the US have now surpassed 50,000. Basically gone up 10 times in one month. But hey ho... it's just like the seasonal flu right?

 

[britbox]

In hindsight we will hopefully learn more how to proceed, but as the saying goes, "we're building the plane as we're flying". Unfortunately.

That's a good way of framing it. I think a lockdown was the right way to go, in respect of buying time to learn more about the virus, and getting healthcare systems in order, so they can cope and don't get overwhelmed... but lockdown can never be a long term solution. Some people have spoken of locking down until a vaccine is available... which will do irreparable damage.

Something I learned today, Chinese studies are showing that out of 318 outbreaks they analyzed (1245 cases), only 1 outbreak (2 cases) occurred OUTDOORS.

Outdoor Transmission of COVID | National Review

This new study, if true, could raise important questions about the wisdom of closing public parks in urban areas.

www.nationalreview.com

and yet, here (and I guess most places) we are being told to stay indoors.

Also, Cali mentioned the modeling data, and yes, I'd agree that there are some wacky numbers coming out. It's clear these models are inherently flawed.

One state in Australia, (Victoria) claimed that according to models they had saved 36,000 lives with these lockdown measures, yet the neighboring state of New South Wales said they saved 700 lives. It's the same virus and roughly the same measures being taken. NSW has a bigger population and more active cases, so how on earth are Victoria coming out with such different numbers?

 

[Federberg]

That's a good way of framing it. I think a lockdown was the right way to go, in respect of buying time to learn more about the virus, and getting healthcare systems in order, so they can cope and don't get overwhelmed... but lockdown can never be a long term solution. Some people have spoken of locking down until a vaccine is available... which will do irreparable damage.

Something I learned today, Chinese studies are showing that out of 318 outbreaks they analyzed (1245 cases), only 1 outbreak (2 cases) occurred OUTDOORS.

Outdoor Transmission of COVID | National Review

This new study, if true, could raise important questions about the wisdom of closing public parks in urban areas.

www.nationalreview.com

and yet, here (and I guess most places) we are being told to stay indoors.

Also, Cali mentioned the modeling data, and yes, I'd agree that there are some wacky numbers coming out. It's clear these models are inherently flawed.

One state in Australia, (Victoria) claimed that according to models they had saved 36,000 lives with these lockdown measures, yet the neighboring state of New South Wales said they saved 700 lives. It's the same virus and roughly the same measures being taken. NSW has a bigger population and more active cases, so how on earth are Victoria coming out with such different numbers?

No question that there are flaws in models. They are merely mathematical tools, and are constantly evolving as the data set increases. I'm not sure anyone but the most uneducated (not a slight at you in anyway mate, you know who I'm talking about ) will look at them as predictive or precise. They are merely used to help frame the policy options at any given time. There's no question that some models are better than others but none of them will be able to predict optimal outcome. What we see from the most effective countries is a set of practices.. (1) massively roll out testing (2) isolate those who test positive (3) comprehensive testing.

This seems the only way to create a scenario where people can come out of lockdown. I'm simply stunned at the countries that are still not implementing this rather obvious strategy. It just beggars the mind

 

[britbox]

No question that there are flaws in models. They are merely mathematical tools, and are constantly evolving as the data set increases. I'm not sure anyone but the most uneducated (not a slight at you in anyway mate, you know who I'm talking about ) will look at them as predictive or precise. They are merely used to help frame the policy options at any given time. There's no question that some models are better than others but none of them will be able to predict optimal outcome. What we see from the most effective countries is a set of practices.. (1) massively roll out testing (2) isolate those who test positive (3) comprehensive testing.

This seems the only way to create a scenario where people can come out of lockdown. I'm simply stunned at the countries that are still not implementing this rather obvious strategy. It just beggars the mind

Agreed, I think most countries are probably seeing that as the way forward. The Germans have probably established the best model for Europe as it stands. Still, there is a real problem with supply chains at the moment, with testing materials and with PPE, particularly. They have become the toilet rolls in the aisles for governments!

 

[Federberg]

Agreed, I think most countries are probably seeing that as the way forward. The Germans have probably established the best model for Europe as it stands. Still, there is a real problem with supply chains at the moment, with testing materials and with PPE, particularly. They have become the toilet rolls in the aisles for governments!

Yes for sure. Regarding supply chains. There will be massive repercussions going forward. As we discussed some time ago. I can see Eastern European countries gaining manufacturing share for medical equipment in Europe and Mexico in North America. China will lose from this in the medium term. But in the short term they hold the cards. It takes years to rejiggle global supply chains unfortunately. Another possibility is the potential for smart manufacturing. What if a car manufacturer is able to rebuild their factories so they can switch from auto making to ventilators? That's not really feasible right now, but one can imagine in the future work on this type of technology might be possible. Food for thought...

 

[britbox]

Another possibility is the potential for smart manufacturing. What if a car manufacturer is able to rebuild their factories so they can switch from auto making to ventilators? That's not really feasible right now, but one can imagine in the future work on this type of technology might be possible. Food for thought...

That's already begun. Vauxhall at Ellesmere Port are making ventilators. I think Honda is too. There will probably be teething problems, during this Pandemic, but it makes perfect sense to have it built into future planning. There will be a massive post-mortem in the aftermath. It's a wake-up call of huge proportions. Can you begin to imagine the scenario, if there was a virus with COVID-19 contagion combined with a mortality rate of something like Ebola?

 

[Federberg]

That's already begun. Vauxhall at Ellesmere Port are making ventilators. I think Honda is too. There will probably be teething problems, during this Pandemic, but it makes perfect sense to have it built into future planning. There will be a massive post-mortem in the aftermath. It's a wake-up call of huge proportions. Can you begin to imagine the scenario, if there was a virus with COVID-19 contagion combined with a mortality rate of something like Ebola?

No you misunderstand me. I know that manufacturers have retooled to temporarily. But I'm talking about longer term planning to build in flexibility for this type of eventuality. Smart manufacturing that can be quickly converted to construct multiple products. It makes sense in the long term and would make these companies immensely productive as well. That might be the way to go

 

[mrzz]

@mrzz interested in hearing your response to a friend of mine who spent years in Brazil and speaks fluently. Fancies himself as a Brazil expert. Credit trader. For context, he and I have been arguing about the whole coronavirus thing since day 1. He's one of those who believes that there is a massive over-reaction. Here's what he said to me today, when I said that I thought Bolsonaro was crazy...

He isn't as crazy as the press would have you believe
Don't listen to people in Rio
Makes Chicago look like heaven
He took over a country on the edge of bankruptcy
With a murder rate of 80k a year
Rio is over
The PT have sucked that tit to desacation
I agree he says tasteless things and has no filter
But, what he is trying to do with his political, tax and economic reforms are necessary
Rio was a thriving market, most managers have moved to SP

Our minister of justice, which was some kind of super hero to the ones who hated the previous left wing government (lead a movement somewhat similar to the "mani pulite" operation in Italy) just left the government, throwing a lot of shit in the fan. With his departure this government will fall in a matter of weeks.

Don't ask your friend anything. Just say to him that some random guy in a forum you visited said "fuck you, moron". He will know what I am talking about...

 

[calitennis127]

You keep ignoring the fact that Trump is THE FUCKING PRESIDENT. It's on his watch, and it's on him.

Lol.....I'm glad you're saying that. Here's a newsflash for you: I don't think Trump is as powerful as he (or you) thinks he is.

Rather than consolidating efforts, he's got states competing against each other and FEMA with suppliers for PPE's and etc.

Most states don't even need supplies because the virus has barely impacted anyone. New York is the most impacted state and contrary to the rambling grandpa Cuomo's concerns a few weeks back, the state has a surplus of ventilators now.

Didn't you say using the IHME models was a mistake? Well, who takes responsibility for that?

A lot of people, Trump included. But I can understand why Trump has deferred to the likes of Fauci given the way that Trump has been badgered and brutalized by the knaves in the media since he was elected.

Now do I think Trump has gone along with the coronavirus narrative far too much? Yes, I do. But he is surrounded by government officials who direct policy and he is not as powerful as he thinks he is. Plus, there is a part of me that has always looked at Pence as a corny shithead from Indiana. Pence's sanctimonious bullshit about "saving lives" grates on my nerves every time I hear it. I am no Jon Stewart fan but the way he made fun of Pence five years ago had some merit to it. Part of the problem with Trump is that he has Pence as his VP. I always thought that was a bad selection in certain ways.

 

[calitennis127]

Lol. Just lol. Read your commentary at the beginning of March and it was a clusterfuck.

You were rambling on about Obama, The Washington Post, Swine flu... Guess what? There are a hell of a lot more than 33 dead and 4 times as many deaths in the US as swine flu.

Lol.....yes, and I was exactly right about the political and economic dimensions of this crisis. I was also right about the millions of people who would lose jobs. Why are you always citing the death totals and never the economic numbers that I foresaw as the consequence of these irrational shutdowns?

My point was that the economy should not be shut down and lives ruined without absolute certainty that this was serious, and as more data come in, we are starting to see that this virus looks less serious by the day.

You're making the same mistake now. This IS FAR FROM over. I'd be surprised if the US keeps this under 100,000 deaths... on the first wave alone.

Yes, if the CDC and various Democratic government officials continue lying through their teeth to bolster the numbers and make Trump look bad. Look at this astonishing admission from the Illinois public health director Dr. Ngozi Ezike:

"Even if you died of a clear alternate cause but you had COVID at the same time it's still listed as a COVID death."

https://www.mrctv.org/blog/ill-dph-...ternate-cause-testing-positive-covid-makes-it

That's the fraudulent government bullshit that is getting the numbers up high. And even with that fraud clearly going on, the numbers still are underwhelming and not worth causing mass economic devastation over. In the long run far more problems will be caused and far more lives will be lost from these economic shutdowns than from the low-mortality coronavirus.

 

[Moxie]

Most states don't need supplies? If that is actually true (in terms of "most states,") it doesn't represent urgent need in lots of areas. This from the US Conference of Mayors. It's not just NYC, Boston, Seattle, LA, New Orleans and Detroit...as if that weren't enough.

Shortages of COVID-19 Emergency Equipment in U.S. Cities - United States Conference of Mayors

Early in Congressional deliberations on the federal government’s initial response to the growing COVID-19 threat to the nation, the U.S. Conference of Mayors communicated to House and Senate leaders the importance of prioritizing the needs of cities as the crisis was unfolding. The message...

www.usmayors.org

 

[calitennis127]

Most states don't need supplies? If that is actually true (in terms of "most states,") it doesn't represent urgent need in lots of areas. This from the US Conference of Mayors. It's not just NYC, Boston, Seattle, LA, New Orleans and Detroit...as if that weren't enough.

Shortages of COVID-19 Emergency Equipment in U.S. Cities - United States Conference of Mayors

Early in Congressional deliberations on the federal government’s initial response to the growing COVID-19 threat to the nation, the U.S. Conference of Mayors communicated to House and Senate leaders the importance of prioritizing the needs of cities as the crisis was unfolding. The message...

www.usmayors.org

Right now it's the fashionable thing for government leaders to say they need supplies.....it's like wearing a face mask at the gas station or believing in Russian collusion in 2017. It's what the cool people are doing. That doesn't mean it makes any sense at all.

During one of his rambling monologues about Italian families and his daughters' boyfriends eating meatballs, grandpa Cuomo said that he would need 30,000 ventilators. He never needed 30,000 ventilators - just like you don't need a mask to survive this "crisis."

 

[Moxie]

"Fashionable??" You actively are a dick.

 

[Federberg]

Right now it's the fashionable thing for government leaders to say they need supplies.....it's like wearing a face mask at the gas station or believing in Russian collusion in 2017. It's what the cool people are doing. That doesn't mean it makes any sense at all.

During one of his rambling monologues about Italian families and his daughters' boyfriends eating meatballs, grandpa Cuomo said that he would need 30,000 ventilators. He never needed 30,000 ventilators - just like you don't need a mask to survive this "crisis."

I do hope that you walk the walk on all this stuff mate. Be the first out acting like we're back to normal. Go out without a face mask. I just hope you're not one of those absolute cowards who expects others to die for the economy. You talk the talk, you should be man enough to walk the walk.


On this issue, it's going to be interesting to see, in these Red States that are opening up how many people actually try to go back to normal. I have a feeling we'll see the worst of both worlds. Not enough people will return to normal to appreciably increase economic activity but just enough people will come out again to end up putting further stress on health care systems