What on Earth is going on in the world today? It's gone mad

[britbox]

No, it's near a major hospital. I guess my question is: is it selfish and rude to other people to get out of dodge if you have another option and can move safely?

Your friend shouldn't really have much of a moral dilemma. They are one less potential carrier and one less potential victim in an area struggling to cope with the current burden. There should be no guilt in leaving the scene - it's not that type of war.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The purpose is: what if you're a person who lives in a big city, has been self-isolating, but wants to decamp to a house in the country, where you will self-quarantine for a further 14 days before going out. Is it wrong to go? Asking for a friend.

Yes, it is selfish. If your friend is in a hot spot and is planning to leave looking for greener pastures, that is selfish. He/She may make some other tranquil place a hot spot.

 

[britbox]

Yes, it is selfish. If your friend is in a hot spot and is planning to leave looking for greener pastures, that is selfish. He/She may make some other tranquil place a hot spot.

Not if they are self-quarantining in an isolated region... as was suggested.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, it is selfish. If your friend is in a hot spot and is planning to leave looking for greener pastures, that is selfish. He/She may make some other tranquil place a hot spot.

Even if you don't see anyone when you get there? And can self-quarantine completely? What's the BS about "greener pastures?" It's her house. What about leaving and not being part of the problem in the hot zone? What if my friend has a family member who is ill and dying, and her cousins need help tending to her. After 14 days of quarantine, she can help them.

 

[britbox]

People can jump to quick judgment without context though.

We are only a few miles north of the state border between Queensland and New South Wales in Oz, and the two towns either side of the border kind of merge into one. It's nicknamed Twin towns... yet it's split into two now and the border is closed. You can only tell the difference really by the colour of people's car number plates.

Somebody I know had a friend in New South Wales and they drove through the border patrol OK (picking up their child / dual custody thing) and were stopped at some traffic lights.

An old couple in the next car kept gesturing at him and pointing down at his car.

He rolled down the window, "Something wrong with my car?"

To which they replied... "Yeah, the colour of your number plates, turn around and take your filthy fucking disease back to New South Wales"
He just rolled up his windows and collected his son. He was literally less than 3 miles from his house anyway.

 

[Moxie]

People can jump to quick judgment without context though.

We are only a few miles north of the state border between Queensland and New South Wales in Oz, and the two towns either side of the border kind of merge into one. It's nicknamed Twin towns... yet it's split into two now and the border is closed. You can only tell the difference really by the colour of people's car number plates.

Somebody I know had a friend in New South Wales and they drove throughthe border patrol OK (picking up their child / dual custody thing) and were stopped at some traffic lights.

An old couple kept in the next car kept gesturing at him and pointing down at his car.

He rolled down the window, "Something wrong with my car?"

To which they replied... "Yeah, the colour of your number plates, turn around and take your filthy fucking disease back to New South Wales"
He just rolled up his windows and collected his son. He was literally less than 3 miles from his house anyway.

This is exactly the fear: That you get treated like a leper or a pariah. I hope we're not prepared to start eating our own.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Even if you don't see anyone when you get there? And can self-quarantine completely? What's the BS about "greener pastures?" It's her house. What about leaving and not being part of the problem in the hot zone? What if my friend has a family member who is ill and dying, and her cousins need help tending to her. After 14 days of quarantine, she can help them.

You are adding all this stuff now. Obviously, if a family member is ill and one is travelling to help them, it is a different story. Your original enquiry seemed to be tacitly referring to discretionary travel.

By "greener pasture" I meant a place which has less number of cases (to which the original person is trying to move to escape from a hot spot which is their natural habitat).

 

[Moxie]

You are adding all this stuff now. Obviously, if a family member is ill and one is travelling to help them, it is a different story. Your original enquiry seemed to be tacitly referring to discretionary travel.

By "greener pasture" I meant a place which has less number of cases (to which the original person is trying to move to escape from a hot spot which is their natural habitat).

What do you think "asking for a friend" meant? I'm not trying to "add stuff," I'm trying to describe a dilemma. I never said anything about discretionary travel. I asked about specific travel that involved careful quarantine. Forget it. I think I've figured out what I can do. Oh...I mean "my friend." Many thanks to @britbox

As to "not my natural habitat," it's my family home for nearly 100 years. I know the neighbors and the cops and I'm in touch will all of them. They'll know I'm there and quarantined. Does that make it ok?

 

[Jelenafan]

What do you think "asking for a friend" meant? I'm not trying to "add stuff," I'm trying to describe a dilemma. I never said anything about discretionary travel. I asked about specific travel that involved careful quarantine. Forget it. I think I've figured out what I can do. Oh...I mean "my friend." Many thanks to @britbox

As to "not my natural habitat," it's my family home for nearly 100 years. I know the neighbors and the cops and I'm in touch will all of them. They'll know I'm there and quarantined. Does that make it ok?

I don't think anyone is prejudging anyone. No one knows the particular of any specific scenario. However this discussion started as the medical director of a country who did PA's urging people not to travel unless absolutely essential. As a public face of a national policy of course there was fallout when she flouted the rules, even if her intentions were benign, ie going to her secondary home. Perception in this case was perception. Is there any real objection that she inevitably had to be fired or resigned or the reasons why?

Now if you pull that totally out of the discussion of course ANY individual can explain or rationalize what they personally are going to do something similar, even if they are violating or stretching somewhat a shelter in place law. The point is if you increase that exponentially so many act in that way, say 50, 100, 200, 250 and so forth and so on., "carefull" self quarantined persons could inadvertently spread the covid to others.

I can't believe we are having this discussion. Yes, I could be one of those rationalizing my decision also, so it's not being self righteous, but the larger point is there are very solid and valid health/safety reasons for restricting travel and having shelter in place edicts.

One could have very plausible reasons for driving over the speed limit, but it doesn't mean I wasn't going over the stated MPH limit, nor breaking what was law.

 

[calitennis127]

Rachel Maddow interviewed a guy just now who was very sick, on a vent for 6 days, but has come out the other side. He's young, but did also mention that he was treated with hydroxycholoroquine and one of the others. (Went by too fast to catch, but it was one or the other.) While this does still qualify as being in the realm of the anecdotal, not massively tested, it's one more positive sign that it might help.

The problem is that these anecdotes are becoming so common that they now amount to a pattern (also, there have been 2 studies in France and 1 in China demonstrating hydroxychloroquine's effectiveness so this isn't all just a bunch of local success stories).

Here is the latest mere "anecdote," this one from a Democratic member of Congress who just thanked Trump's suggestion for saving her life - Karen Whitsett.

Detroit rep says hydroxychloroquine, Trump helped save her life amid COVID-19 fight

Detroit rep says hydroxychloroquine, Trump helped save her life amid COVID-19 fight

Rep. Karen Whitsett, D-Detroit, said she does not believe she would have been given the drug if President Trump had not touted it.

www.freep.com

 

[calitennis127]

Good news here.....as many have been pointing out in recent days, the models being used by the White House coronavirus task force have been wildly off the mark and exaggerated.

Breaking story....

Key Coronavirus Model Now Predicts Many Fewer U.S. Deaths
APR. 6, 2020

Key Coronavirus Model Now Predicts Many Fewer U.S. Deaths

The IHME model has also revised downward its predictions for the number of hospital beds and ventilators that will be needed at peak outbreak.

nymag.com

 

[Jelenafan]

Good news here.....as many have been pointing out in recent days, the models being used by the White House coronavirus task force have been wildly off the mark and exaggerated.

Breaking story....

Key Coronavirus Model Now Predicts Many Fewer U.S. Deaths
APR. 6, 2020

Key Coronavirus Model Now Predicts Many Fewer U.S. Deaths

The IHME model has also revised downward its predictions for the number of hospital beds and ventilators that will be needed at peak outbreak.

nymag.com

This article is saying that 82K are projected to die by mid August versus 93K, ie 11K less.

It also states that those projections are based on this:

"The IHME model is based on several key assumptions about social distancing in the U.S. It assumes all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses — and that “implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.” Crucially, it also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House.

Though the update of the model appears to be good news, at least for now, Murray counseled caution. “If social-distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the U.S. will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow,” he said."

 

[Federberg]

The purpose is: what if you're a person who lives in a big city, has been self-isolating, but wants to decamp to a house in the country, where you will self-quarantine for a further 14 days before going out. Is it wrong to go? Asking for a friend.

depends on what the isolation protocols in your state or country are I guess. Personally I think it's extremely selfish. We have all been asked to stay in place for the public good. To limit our excursions outside. We are not a great people anymore (not directed at you, I've seen this conversation play out many times). When I read about the sacrifice and cooperation in bygone eras.... we can't even stay in our town houses for a few weeks? It beggars belief...

 

[britbox]

depends on what the isolation protocols in your state or country are I guess. Personally I think it's extremely selfish. We have all been asked to stay in place for the public good. To limit our excursions outside. We are not a great people anymore (not directed at you, I've seen this conversation play out many times). When I read about the sacrifice and cooperation in bygone eras.... we can't even stay in our town houses for a few weeks? It beggars belief...

Context is everything. If you read the detail, you will see a far better level of useful co-operation combined with zero risk.

 

[Federberg]

Context is everything. If you read the detail, you will see a far better level of useful co-operation combined with zero risk.

yes I've seen it. There can be justification if it is to help another. Not quite sure that context wasn't included initially though...

 

[Jelenafan]

Another Health Advisor caught contradicting his own official stance.

New Zealand’s health minister demoted after going to beach during lockdown

Here are the latest coronavirus updates from around the world.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Federberg]

Another Health Advisor caught contradicting his own official stance.

New Zealand’s health minister demoted after going to beach during lockdown

Here are the latest coronavirus updates from around the world.

www.nbcnews.com

shouldn't just be demoted. He should be sacked

 

[calitennis127]

This article is saying that 82K are projected to die by mid August versus 93K, ie 11K less.

It also states that those projections are based on this:

"The IHME model is based on several key assumptions about social distancing in the U.S. It assumes all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses — and that “implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.” Crucially, it also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House.

That's right Jelenafan. The model has assumed social distancing from the start and its numbers have been wildly off and exaggerated. Alex Berenson (the former NYT reporter) has done a great job documenting this on Twitter.

One retort that Democrats have had to people pointing out the failure of the model is that they say without social distancing the model numbers would have panned out. But the model ASSUMED social distancing from the start and it has still been wildly wrong.

Trump and the administration have put too much credence in this model. But with the extent of hysteria I understand why he wanted to play it safe.

 

[Moxie]

depends on what the isolation protocols in your state or country are I guess. Personally I think it's extremely selfish. We have all been asked to stay in place for the public good. To limit our excursions outside. We are not a great people anymore (not directed at you, I've seen this conversation play out many times). When I read about the sacrifice and cooperation in bygone eras.... we can't even stay in our town houses for a few weeks? It beggars belief...

We are not prohibited from traveling across states. Maybe that's different in the UK. And I have checked with my state and the one that I would travel to. Here's what I don't understand is different, and "selfish:" I can go out and run, keeping social distancing. I can go to the grocery store, keeping social distancing. If I can get to my family home in the north, likewise keeping social distancing, and then quarantining for 14 days, why is that different? I'm not swanning into my weekend home for a few days, or enjoying a day at the beach, just to get out of the house. I'm not even trying to get out of NYC to save myself. I'd rather stay home, tbh. But I have a sick relative. In order to help with her care, I have to get there, quarantine for 2 weeks, and then I can help. I would tell the local police I'm there, because I already alerted them when the house was empty. My neighbor has encouraged me to come. I don't need your permission or that of @Jelenafan to decide what I'll do. But I did think it was odd from you, so libertarian, to be so adamant on this point.

 

[Jelenafan]

We are not prohibited from traveling across states. Maybe that's different in the UK. And I have checked with my state and the one that I would travel to. Here's what I don't understand is different, and "selfish:" I can go out and run, keeping social distancing. I can go to the grocery store, keeping social distancing. If I can get to my family home in the north, likewise keeping social distancing, and then quarantining for 14 days, why is that different? I'm not swanning into my weekend home for a few days, or enjoying a day at the beach, just to get out of the house. I'm not even trying to get out of NYC to save myself. I'd rather stay home, tbh. But I have a sick relative. In order to help with her care, I have to get there, quarantine for 2 weeks, and then I can help. I would tell the local police I'm there, because I already alerted them when the house was empty. My neighbor has encouraged me to come. I don't need your permission or that of @Jelenafan to decide what I'll do. But I did think it was odd from you, so libertarian, to be so adamant on this point.

OK, so all this time you were referring to yourself.