US Politics Thread

[Federberg]

I know the media will want to go after Biden because of the Afghanistan withdrawal, but perhaps they should take a pause and try to understand why this is the only issue where both 45 and 46 are in complete agreement. They went in there to eliminate terrorists. They did that. They never went in there to protect Afghan women, as laudable as that might be. If anything, the speed at which the country has collapsed is a complete validation of the withdrawal. If these folk couldn't even defend themselves then it surely can't be up to the US and it's allies to do it for them. It's harsh but that's just the way it needs to be. The US alone has spent $2trn on this monumentally futile venture. It's time to go home learn from this and try to avoid a cluster-f like this ever happening again. Any sounds you hear from the media and legislatures are just the protestations of the K Street lobbyists whining that one of the many spigots for their personal enrichment has been closed off

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I know the media will want to go after Biden because of the Afghanistan withdrawal, but perhaps they should take a pause and try to understand why this is the only issue where both 45 and 46 are in complete agreement. They went in there to eliminate terrorists. They did that. They never went in there to protect Afghan women, as laudable as that might be. If anything, the speed at which the country has collapsed is a complete validation of the withdrawal. If these folk couldn't even defend themselves then it surely can't be up to the US and it's allies to do it for them. It's harsh but that's just the way it needs to be. The US alone has spent $2trn on this monumentally futile venture. It's time to go home learn from this and try to avoid a cluster-f like this ever happening again. Any sounds you hear from the media and legislatures are just the protestations of the K Street lobbyists whining that one of the many spigots for their personal enrichment has been closed off

Nobody is claiming that getting out is a bad idea. In fact, I think they should have got out long time ago.

But, Biden should take the blame for completely goofing off the exit strategy. At a bare minimum, they should have ensured that all Americans, Westerners and Afghans who helped USA were evacuated in an orderly fashion before the whole country fell to Taliban.

The western intelligence in Afghanistan was pretty bad. Even a few weeks ago Biden openly and publicly stated that he does not think country will fall to Taliban as Afghan Army had 300,000 people whereas Taliban fighters were numbered at around 72,000.

It appears that of the 300,000 mentioned about 150,000 were existing only on paper (just for the generals to get more money from USA to pay them). May be around 100,000 of Afghan soldiers were really Taliban folks who infiltrated into Afghan Army. Finally, even the "real" Afghan Army did not have the will to fight the Taliban. Once USA is leaving, they laid down their arms. That is why everything fell so quickly. It is not that Taliban had to fight and win to take over the country. They were able to just to walk in and assert themselves.

 

[Federberg]

Nobody is claiming that getting out is a bad idea. In fact, I think they should have got out long time ago.

But, Biden should take the blame for completely goofing off the exit strategy. At a bare minimum, they should have ensured that all Americans, Westerners and Afghans who helped USA were evacuated in an orderly fashion before the whole country fell to Taliban.

The western intelligence in Afghanistan was pretty bad. Even a few weeks ago Biden openly and publicly stated that he does not think country will fall to Taliban as Afghan Army had 300,000 people whereas Taliban fighters were numbered at around 72,000.

It appears that of the 300,000 mentioned about 150,000 were existing only on paper (just for the generals to get more money from USA to pay them). May be around 100,000 of Afghan soldiers were really Taliban folks who infiltrated into Afghan Army. Finally, even the "real" Afghan Army did not have the will to fight the Taliban. Once USA is leaving, they laid down their arms. That is why everything fell so quickly. It is not that Taliban had to fight and win to take over the country. They were able to just to walk in and assert themselves.

I don't disagree the exit has been a bit of a mess. My understanding though is that all the Americans have exited? In any case, the collapse is clearly due to the enormous corruption in the Afghan government. That just confirms that this had to be done. I would also add that the quicker and presumably more efficient exit of foreigners would probably have inspired an even more panicked surrender of the Afghans. Folks can blame Biden if they want, but to me the real blame is for the establishment that in the face of such gross corruption and cowardice still argues the US should not have left.

 

[Moxie]

When we went into Afghanistan, there was much talk of the Soviet war there...how they got stuck in there for nearly 10 years, and only ill came of it for either side. Certainly nothing much of anything changed, at best. That we'd go in, and never be able to extricate ourselves. And so it was. Maybe just walking away was all that could be done. But Biden's being so very wrong, meaning, I suppose, that the intelligence was very wrong, is pretty poor. It is a mess, and being compared to the fall of Saigon.

 

[Federberg]

When we went into Afghanistan, there was much talk of the Soviet war there...how they got stuck in there for nearly 10 years, and only ill came of it for either side. Certainly nothing much of anything changed, at best. That we'd go in, and never be able to extricate ourselves. And so it was. Maybe just walking away was all that could be done. But Biden's being so very wrong, meaning, I suppose, that the intelligence was very wrong, is pretty poor. It is a mess, and being compared to the fall of Saigon.

that's the K Street guys going into over drive. They can't let this sort of action occur too often. The intelligence community has tended to be negative about Afghanistan. It's the military and Neo-cons who've kept the US there.

In my business there comes a time when you've lost more money than you're comfortable with, and you close your position. It's called a 'stop loss'. I believe that's what Biden's done. It's never pretty. But sometimes it just needs to be done

 

[Federberg]

Russia says Afghan president fled with cars and helicopter full of cash - RIA

Russia's embassy in Kabul said on Monday that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had fled the country with four cars and a helicopter full of cash and had to leave some money behind as it would not all fit in, the RIA news agency reported.

www.reuters.com

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't disagree the exit has been a bit of a mess. My understanding though is that all the Americans have exited? In any case, the collapse is clearly due to the enormous corruption in the Afghan government. That just confirms that this had to be done. I would also add that the quicker and presumably more efficient exit of foreigners would probably have inspired an even more panicked surrender of the Afghans. Folks can blame Biden if they want, but to me the real blame is for the establishment that in the face of such gross corruption and cowardice still argues the US should not have left.

You are conflating different issues. I don't claim (and I don't think others claim either) that getting out is a bad idea. On the contrary, I believe they should have gotten out long ago.

"bit of a mess" is putting it very very lightly. Did you see the chaos at the Kabul airport with people clinging on to the fuselage of the plane when it is about to take off. Did you know that there was shooting at the airport with about 7 people killed? Did you see afghan people getting to the airport with just a suitcase hoping to get out?

I am not insisting on a quicker evacuation of people (both US and Afghan helpers). What I think they should have done is to make sure that they exit only after the evacuation was completed. They moved 2500 troops out, only to bring in 5000 troops back in to manage the chaos now.

Biden surely should take the blame as CIC. The intelligence should take the blame for getting the picture totally wrongly.

 

[Federberg]

You are conflating different issues. I don't claim (and I don't think others claim either) that getting out is a bad idea. On the contrary, I believe they should have gotten out long ago.

"bit of a mess" is putting it very very lightly. Did you see the chaos at the Kabul airport with people clinging on to the fuselage of the plane when it is about to take off. Did you know that there was shooting at the airport with about 7 people killed? Did you see afghan people getting to the airport with just a suitcase hoping to get out?

I am not insisting on a quicker evacuation of people (both US and Afghan helpers). What I think they should have done is to make sure that they exit only after the evacuation was completed. They moved 2500 troops out, only to bring in 5000 troops back in to manage the chaos now.

Biden surely should take the blame as CIC. The intelligence should take the blame for getting the picture totally wrongly.

I didn't think you meant that either. I was trying to address the exit, but I did it rather clumsily. I've watched crowd behaviour all my career, it never ceases to amaze me. A significant proportion of people are always slow to react in anticipation of clearly foreseeable events. The sad truth is that there was always going to be chaos, once the Taliban inevitably retook the country. The smart people factored in the rampant corruption, and the anti-foreigner cultural resistance, and took steps to leave when Trump started negotiating with the Taliban. But it's not as if the entire country was going to flee. There was always going to be this. People can criticize Biden for this, but forgive my harshness this was a band aid that needed to be ripped off a hair arm. And then we have to move on..

But again.. I have to make the point that this was not an intelligence failure per se. We can criticise the IC for the speed, but they've been against occupation in Afghanistan for years. The military and Neo-con establishment has been the driving force for this adventure. It would be unfair to pin this one on the IC. If you want to critique their estimating a 4 - 5 week window as opposed to a couple of weeks, that's fine. But we're talking about chaotic systems and highly unpredictable outcomes. That's a level of accuracy that's impossible to achieve

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I didn't think you meant that either. I was trying to address the exit, but I did it rather clumsily. I've watched crowd behaviour all my career, it never ceases to amaze me. A significant proportion of people are always slow to react in anticipation of clearly foreseeable events. The sad truth is that there was always going to be chaos, once the Taliban inevitably retook the country. The smart people factored in the rampant corruption, and the anti-foreigner cultural resistance, and took steps to leave when Trump started negotiating with the Taliban. But it's not as if the entire country was going to flee. There was always going to be this. People can criticize Biden for this, but forgive my harshness this was a band aid that needed to be ripped off a hair arm. And then we have to move on..

But again.. I have to make the point that this was not an intelligence failure per se. We can criticise the IC for the speed, but they've been against occupation in Afghanistan for years. The military and Neo-con establishment has been the driving force for this adventure. It would be unfair to pin this one on the IC. If you want to critique their estimating a 4 - 5 week window as opposed to a couple of weeks, that's fine. But we're talking about chaotic systems and highly unpredictable outcomes. That's a level of accuracy that's impossible to achieve

You are still missing the point. I am not talking about evacuating all the Afghans who want out.

I am talking about evacuation of US and other western workers in Embassies etc and also the Afghans who helped the USA (with translation services etc) who have been promised admission into USA. Surely that evacuation could have been completed in an orderly manner before the troops pulled out completely.

The problem is that you are still doing a strawman argument against an imaginary person who is insisting US military should still be there.

 

[Moxie]

I didn't think you meant that either. I was trying to address the exit, but I did it rather clumsily. I've watched crowd behaviour all my career, it never ceases to amaze me. A significant proportion of people are always slow to react in anticipation of clearly foreseeable events. The sad truth is that there was always going to be chaos, once the Taliban inevitably retook the country. The smart people factored in the rampant corruption, and the anti-foreigner cultural resistance, and took steps to leave when Trump started negotiating with the Taliban. But it's not as if the entire country was going to flee. There was always going to be this. People can criticize Biden for this, but forgive my harshness this was a band aid that needed to be ripped off a hair arm. And then we have to move on..

But again.. I have to make the point that this was not an intelligence failure per se. We can criticise the IC for the speed, but they've been against occupation in Afghanistan for years. The military and Neo-con establishment has been the driving force for this adventure. It would be unfair to pin this one on the IC. If you want to critique their estimating a 4 - 5 week window as opposed to a couple of weeks, that's fine. But we're talking about chaotic systems and highly unpredictable outcomes. That's a level of accuracy that's impossible to achieve

If the smart people factored in the rampant corruption, and the fake numbers of loyal to us Afghanies, how come Biden was left with his ass hanging out to tell us a complete fairy tale about how this was going to go? I don't wholly blame the intelligence community, I also blame the military. Trump, (and to his credit) planned to get us out 18 months ago. How is it that, with that much advance warning, the military couldn't do a better job of planning our exit? I think everyone could have lived with "less-than-perfect," but the fall of Saigon all over again is pathetic. If you don't want to blame intelligence, then blame the military. Who else is left? I'd blame both.

 

[Federberg]

If the smart people factored in the rampant corruption, and the fake numbers of loyal to us Afghanies, how come Biden was left with his ass hanging out to tell us a complete fairy tale about how this was going to go? I don't wholly blame the intelligence community, I also blame the military. Trump, (and to his credit) planned to get us out 18 months ago. How is it that, with that much advance warning, the military couldn't do a better job of planning our exit? I think everyone could have lived with "less-than-perfect," but the fall of Saigon all over again is pathetic. If you don't want to blame intelligence, then blame the military. Who else is left? I'd blame both.

I would blame the politicians, the media and military. In short, the military industrial complex

 

[Federberg]

If the smart people factored in the rampant corruption, and the fake numbers of loyal to us Afghanies, how come Biden was left with his ass hanging out to tell us a complete fairy tale about how this was going to go? I don't wholly blame the intelligence community, I also blame the military. Trump, (and to his credit) planned to get us out 18 months ago. How is it that, with that much advance warning, the military couldn't do a better job of planning our exit? I think everyone could have lived with "less-than-perfect," but the fall of Saigon all over again is pathetic. If you don't want to blame intelligence, then blame the military. Who else is left? I'd blame both.

There is no strawman. The media and political reaction is there for all to see. I'm not making my points against you or Moxie. I think we're all on the same page. I'm directing my fire directly at those I said would be against this. And yes I would definitely agree that the exit was a mess for the contingent you identified. Logistics will never be perfect in this type of scenario. I for one would love to know how personally accountable some of those people are for delaying leaving the country. Lots of profits to be made in that type of chaos. It's easy to blame the government but short of putting a gun to their heads what exactly could they do? For government officials absolutely that's on the Biden administration, but there are a lot of privateers out there too

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I would blame the politicians, the media and military. In short, the military industrial complex

Why did you leave the intelligence out? It is a colossal failure when Biden (obviously this must have been what he was told by his team) publicly announce that the chances of Taliban taking over the country is very small just week ago.

 

[Federberg]

Why did you leave the intelligence out? It is a colossal failure when Biden (obviously this must have been what he was told by his team) publicly announce that the chances of Taliban taking over the country is very small just week ago.

The IC hasn't advocated staying in Afghanistan. The military and neo-cons have been all over that, but not them.

As for their intelligence regarding how long the government would survive? And let's be clear... NO one thought the government would survive, everyone knew it was just a matter of time. I understand they thought that it could survive until the mid to end of September. Intelligence like that is more art than science. There is no precision and the top consumers don't expect precision (or would be smart not to). If I was a consumer of that sort of information my key take away would be that the government was going down fast. By my reckoning that was decent intelligence. No one can factor in the army just dropping their weapons and walking over to the other side. If they could the Afghan President would probably have turned tail quicker than he did.


PS, I do absolutely agree that there will be long term consequences for the US wrt allies. First Syria and now Afghanistan? Why would locals ever help the US ever again...

 

[Moxie]

For what it's worth, in terms of word on the ground, I was at my local copy shop today, with my lovely lady, Mo, who is my friend, and is Pakistani by origin, though long-time in the US, asked me, "What do you think about Afghanistan?" I offered that I thought it was a mess, and she totally went off on what a mess it was, and how all of this was completely predictable. Even 20 years ago. I had to sign some really important papers, but she really wanted to talk about it. And she had the news on her computer. She, like me, feels that this was all predictable. And like me, she feels insulted that we could all see this playing out as it did, yet "specialists" get paid to know better, and they don't. I mentioned the 6th Jan. riots, and how the police were "surprised" that it turned so violent. Really? Most of us were not surprised. People who are paid to know are not paying attention, and it is insulting. I'm ashamed that the US is such a 3rd World Country that it can't handle basic intelligence. Or, @Federberg, if you really thing it's because they are so self-interested in the Military Industrial Complex, then, it ends up being the same thing. Everyone gets screwed, except for the people who made money off of it. In that sense, it's still pretty 3rd World. I expect you'll say that's exactly what makes it first world, but then we have to think about that again, huh?

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

western forces (and soviets) always end up losing in afghanistan. 19th/20th/21st century.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The IC hasn't advocated staying in Afghanistan. The military and neo-cons have been all over that, but not them.

You are still fixated on the leaving part. I agree that it is a good idea to leave and in fact they should have done long ago.

And let's be clear... NO one thought the government would survive,

and yet the POTUS publicly stated just weeks ago that he thought it is unlikely that the Taliban will take over the country.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Over Trillion of dollars that was spent and given to government of Afghanistan whom obviously
orchestrated the mismanaged and misappropriation of funds. The forces ( military men and politicians) that opposed the Taliban had more than twenty years to abolish them forever. Unfortunately the will to protect their women and children wasn't their primary objective. The only chance they have now is to sacrifice everything if peace is their desired salvation.

Trump's said it correctly, the Afghanistan military was the highest paid by the US to fight. That's was the WRONG strategy. This is all began with Bush and Cheney.

Trump's plan..take out the people, take out the military weapons, blow up the forts and while taking out the military. So why didn't he do it

 

[Federberg]

You are still fixated on the leaving part. I agree that it is a good idea to leave and in fact they should have done long ago.

sorry maybe I misunderstood. I thought you asked me a question. I quote..."Why did you leave the intelligence out?"

 

[Federberg]

and yet the POTUS publicly stated just weeks ago that he thought it is unlikely that the Taliban will take over the country.

can you provide a clip. Context is important. I don't believe anyone believed the government would survive in the long term. It was always a question of timing. But what exactly do you expect a politician to say after billions of dollars have been spent propping up that regime anyway?