US Politics Thread

[Federberg]

Nevertheless I don’t see arrogance or obnoxiousness in their stance. It’s one thing to disregard the sovereignty of Venezuela but that’s not what’s happening here. For once Trump is actually respecting the constitutionalality of the position of the legislature. I applaud him for that. The migration from Venezuela is close to destabilising it’s neighbours and the appalling hyperinflation there is clear evidence that Maduro is grossly incompetent. What is the international community to do? Sit back and say nothing? If your point is that there is hypocrisy here, given the lack of concern for the actions of despots in other countries then fine I agree. But that doesn’t mean that Western governments shouldn’t make supportive noises toward the legislature. You’re right about what I could say about the Maduro appointed courts so I don’t need to say it

 

[mrzz]

Problem is that hyperinflation is driven mostly, or at least to a large extent, by the external economic sanctions. That Maduro is incompetent everyone knows. But the reality there is driven basically by oil prices and by the sanctions. Other oil exporters (such as Angola) are struggling heavily, not paying international creditors and so on. The difference is the economic sanctions. It is a classic case of creating the problem and selling the solution.

There is a lot of disinformation about the migration out of Venezuela, and from Venezuela in general. Really, really take the mainstream narrative with a grain of salt.

And to make supportive noise is one thing (with that I agree, those are the rules of the game), but they went far beyond that.

 

[Federberg]

I have friends who were in Colombia I don’t need the media to supply that information to me.

As for hyperinflation that is not a phenomenon that can be introduced by externalities like sanctions, that seems to me to be a rather basic misunderstanding of its cause. If it was the case then countries like Iran and North Korea would be in an even worse monetary situation than Venezuela. Anyway it’s not clear to me that they’ve gone too far.

 

[mrzz]

Hyperinflation is not necessarily introduced by sanctions, but it can surely be heavily stimulated by it. Venezuela imports a lot of basic goods, so if you force shortages of those you immediately increase prices and drive inflation. As a importer they are also heavily hit by their own exchange rate, directly affected by sanctions, so another inflation driver there. NK has an almost completely (official) state driven economy so inflation is zero by default. Iran relies less on imported goods than Venezuela, and has also found more ways to circumvent the sanctions which were actually quite light when JCPA was in full effect (let's see what happens now, anyway).

Again, in no way I am trying to defend the current state of affairs there, but there two things at least at play here: one is the own recent history of the country (I mean, last 50 years) that explains why Chávez got to power, the other is the door that I believe that the US is opening. This way it seems that they can dictate what happens anywhere they want. Our own government here is extremely aligned with the US and it is born with deep troubles -- it will probably be impeached in less than two years. I can see that Orange Orango Tango claiming he would intervene here "in the name of democracy". Well in that case I might really join the crazy chants....

 

[Federberg]

I'm sorry but hyperinflation doesn't happen that way. It is a purely monetary phenomenon that occurs when central banks lose control of the printing presses to appease Treasuries that are running up unsustainable debts. The likes of Maduro are responsible for this, you simply can't hold outsiders accountable for hyperinflation. I believe you're on the wrong track. Again, I'm not saying the West are knights in shining armour here. But let's stop blaming others for the sins of the Venezuelan government

 

[mrzz]

Tell me one historical case where hyperinflation wasn't preceded by a "normal" cycle of inflation. And even the in text book case of hyperinflation (pre-war Germany), you have a strong external factor playing a role (war penalties imposed by the Versailles treaty). Anyway, your definition is correct, and probably incompetence by Venezuela's central bank was a huge amplifying factor, but this simply does not happen out of the blue.

I am not blaming others for the sins of the Venezuelan government. They can all sin together. And stop arguing with me otherwise I will include "death to federberg" in our chants, and not only burn the American flag but also a printing of your avatar.

 

[Federberg]

what does a "normal" cycle of inflation have to do with exogenous influences? The problem is never the exogenous factor, it's the actions incompetent central banks take to mitigate crises. Blaming others for the follies of central banks and their governments is weak sauce to me. All you have to do is look at how other more competent governments have faced hardship without a complete monetary melt down, so pardon me but you're conflating.

but I'd better back off before I hear chanting...

 

[Federberg]

Super strong NFP numbers. I find it astonishing that Powell committed to a rate and balance sheet contraction pause. He surely would have been read in on these employment numbers before that speech. Fed is going to end up waaay behind the curve, virtually guaranteeing they'll trigger the next recession. Insanity..

 

[Federberg]

Super strong NFP numbers. I find it astonishing that Powell committed to a rate and balance sheet contraction pause. He surely would have been read in on these employment numbers before that speech. Fed is going to end up waaay behind the curve, virtually guaranteeing they'll trigger the next recession. Insanity..

Ah.. maybe it's not as strong as I initially thought. I missed some of the historical revisions

 

[mrzz]

what does a "normal" cycle of inflation have to do with exogenous influences? The problem is never the exogenous factor, it's the actions incompetent central banks take to mitigate crises. Blaming others for the follies of central banks and their governments is weak sauce to me. All you have to do is look at how other more competent governments have faced hardship without a complete monetary melt down, so pardon me but you're conflating.

but I'd better back off before I hear chanting...

We could keep going back on forth forever... we have an original cause disagreement. But even if I would agree that the Central Bank is the sole original responsible for hyperinflation (which I don't), this would still not be enough of a cause for that kind of external interference.

 

[britbox]

I see Bernie has thrown his hat into the ring. I kind of like Bernie... in the context of what comes out of his mouth, is likely what he means. I'm probably too far right of centre these days... but still love a conviction politician.

 

[Federberg]

Yup, I like Bernie too as a conviction politician. I suspect his major contribution will be his moving the primaries debate leftwards. I rather suspect his time has come and gone. Same thing with Elizabeth Warren, some good ideas. The funny thing is, of all the Dems I've really sat down and listened to so far, it's the Indiana Mayor Pete Buttegieg who's sounded the most impressive. He stands zero chance though surely. He's gay. I don't think America is ready for that yet. Maybe I'm wrong and the Trump backlash could take us there, but that would be something to see. Still hoping that Mitch Landrieu the former New Orleans Mayor steps forward. Seems to have a good head on him

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Yup, I like Bernie too as a conviction politician. I suspect his major contribution will be his moving the primaries debate leftwards. I rather suspect his time has come and gone. Same thing with Elizabeth Warren, some good ideas. The funny thing is, of all the Dems I've really sat down and listened to so far, it's the Indiana Mayor Pete Buttegieg who's sounded the most impressive. He stands zero chance though surely. He's gay. I don't think America is ready for that yet. Maybe I'm wrong and the Trump backlash could take us there, but that would be something to see. Still hoping that Mitch Landrieu the former New Orleans Mayor steps forward. Seems to have a good head on him

I highly doubt anyone who supports Trump will change their vote and in fact he might even gain more if this is the current offerings from Dems.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The notions such as free college education for everyone, that some democratic candidates propose, are highly unrealistic.

 

[britbox]

The notions such as free college education for everyone, that some democratic candidates propose, are highly unrealistic.

They are but that doesn't make it a bad aspiration. Education has been monetized to such a degree then you really wonder if a traditional formal university type education is going to end up eating its own bubble. In the so-called most prosperous nations of the world, our young people are now finishing college with debts of $100,000.

Of course, certain professions demand college degrees (i.e. medical, engineering etc), but there are plenty that don't. If I was a prospective student in the arts or humanities (for instance), there's no way I'd even be considering university in this day and age given the price tag.

Capitalism and monetization of pretty much everything that exists is killing it for the youth of today.

 

[britbox]

I finished Uni in 1994 with a debt of about UK 10 thousand pounds (approx 13,000 USD), with inflation that would be 23,000 USD in today's money... and people who finished Uni before that had a much lower debt. $100,000 dollars? I wouldn't even have gone.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I finished Uni in 1994 with a debt of about UK 10 thousand pounds (approx 13,000 USD), with inflation that would be 23,000 USD in today's money... and people who finished Uni before that had a much lower debt. $100,000 dollars? I wouldn't even have gone.

I agree that the cost of university education has increased considerably and out of proportion with general inflation. That needs to be tamed. But, it is neither desirable nor feasible to make it completely free.

 

[mrzz]

But, it is neither desirable nor feasible to make it completely free.

I agree it is not feasible but why it would not be desirable?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I agree it is not feasible but why it would not be desirable?

When something is given out free, people don't take it seriously. Giving out for free would lead to huge bad quality of incoming classes and also will lead to bad attitude by them towards education and the effort they put in it.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

When something is given out free, people don't take it seriously. Giving out for free would lead to huge bad quality of incoming classes and also will lead to bad attitude by them towards education and the effort they put in it.

Also it would not be desirable for the tax payers either since nothing is actually free