US Politics Thread

Federberg

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Lots good posts I want to reply to but just dropped by to comment that today Trump and Bolsonaro (Brazil new's president, the missing link between humans and... and.. hell, I can't find a proper animal) will meet today in the US. To my good fellow posters over there: watch out for changes in Trump. Probably for the very worst (but there is a always a chance he suddenly feels like "wow, this guy loves me and is really sick, maybe I should change something...).
that actually reminds me. I went to a dinner party some weeks ago and the wife of one of the guests was a Brazilian woman. I asked her about her views of Bolsonaro. I specifically brought up a lot of the points you had mentioned. Interestingly she was... I hesitate to say supportive.... but she was open minded about him. She felt that it was time for a change and that the level of corruption necessitated someone like Bolsonaro to clean things up. I brought up some of the out of line comments he's made and she largely brushed them aside saying that it was largely trivial and the prize was cleaning up Brazilian society. It was an interesting conversation and not what I expected
 

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Lots good posts I want to reply to but just dropped by to comment that today Trump and Bolsonaro (Brazil new's president, the missing link between humans and... and.. hell, I can't find a proper animal) will meet today in the US. To my good fellow posters over there: watch out for changes in Trump. Probably for the very worst (but there is a always a chance he suddenly feels like "wow, this guy loves me and is really sick, maybe I should change something...).
I'm very sorry to hear that. It's scary that 2 people with ideas like theirs get the opportunity to get their heads together. We can only imagine the results of their tete-a-tete.
 

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that actually reminds me. I went to a dinner party some weeks ago and the wife of one of the guests was a Brazilian woman. I asked her about her views of Bolsonaro. I specifically brought up a lot of the points you had mentioned. Interestingly she was... I hesitate to say supportive.... but she was open minded about him. She felt that it was time for a change and that the level of corruption necessitated someone like Bolsonaro to clean things up. I brought up some of the out of line comments he's made and she largely brushed them aside saying that it was largely trivial and the prize was cleaning up Brazilian society. It was an interesting conversation and not what I expected

Long, long sigh. That picture/dialogue that you describe is quite common. I will try to answer it as shortly as I can not to bore you (and others) to death.

Yes, it was time for a change. And change is generally good.However, there were 13 different candidates, and from those 13, 4 of them were completely opposition, open, declared and very antagonistic to the party that was in place from 2002 to 2016 (impeachment year). 2 were less critical but still open opposition, 2 were even more to the left (real hard core left), 2 very small and already folkloric, 1 completely crazy (really). The other two were Bolsonaro himself and the guy from the ousted party, PT.

The four I mentioned first were from structured parties and were known to the public. So there were other possible changes. Now Bolsonaro is no Trump, he does not come from the "outside". He is professional politician. 2 from those 4 I mentioned above are waaaay much outsiders than him. The "time for a change" argument is simply empty, to say the least.

Then there is corruption argument. This is completely and utterly crazy. The only factual reason to believe that Bolsonaro would fight corruption is his own word. Which is exactly what every politician in the world does. But he has this "though guy" rhetoric, not backed up by facts. His possessions grew in a way not compatible to his earnings. All his sons, that got into politics, done the same, one case is well known to the public, the growth is exponential. Those are open, public, and specially, uncontested data (you know me, I checked the source). The only reason that they are not multi-millionaires (at least apparently) is that they until very little time ago they were marginal figures with no access to large sums. If you consider what they had access to, their appetite is at least on the average of your basic corrupt politician. In fact, the figures which one of his sons is being asked to explain (with zero success) are larger than the specific ones ultimately responsible for Lula's arrest (which I consider correct, if the info I have is sound). Bolsonaro and his sons are deeply connected to the Rio de Janeiro militias, they even have open and known bills to pardon and legalize those militias (that kill and decapitate people at will, charge protection, etc and etc). Not to mention his recorded views on how politicians work (and he does not say it critically). Last but not least, there are direct connections between his sons and collaborators to the two identified (still only accused) killers of a Rio de Janeiro city counselor a year ago (Mariele Franco). This will ultimately lead to his impeachment (mark my words). At least 70% of what I wrote above was there for all to see before the election. The corruption argument only holds for those who desperately want to believe it.

Then there is the part I wanted to tackle all along. The "brushing aside" part. You see his supporters (and I bet this person was, and probably was simply ashamed to admit it) constantly brushing aside and shrugging of arguments, as they were minor or simply lies. The truth is that they don't give a shit. The guy spent 25 years saying all kinds of absurdities. There are loads of different collections, the most popular ones are not even my favorites. If you want just google translate this page. (random choice). Most of this is caught on video or part of an published interview (never contested). Now their usual excuse is that he was taken "out of context". You guessed it, I checked. From all the cases I saw (more than 30), in only two you can say he was out context -- or was somewhat justifiable. One case is quite famous, his altercations with a far left congresswoman (a giant idiot, by the way). She called him a rapist (with zero evidence, actually out of a bill he was proposing to chemically castrate rapists), and he replied that she did not deserved to be raped by him. Idiotic and absurd answer sure but she started it with a strong accusation. Another one (barely cited nowadays), the journalist tricked him and changed the question asked afterwards, so the answer would look quite worst. The rest (which mount to hundreds) is simply factual truth. Ok, you can brushed it all aside. I only ask, what else a guy needs to say? I want to kill people out of their ideas, I wan t to kill and batter homosexuals, I miss used public money... what else does he needs to say? It is crazy.

I had another point, which is the people he brought to the government, but this is already way too long.
 

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My previous post ended up long and boring. I was tired and sleepy and simply was not able to produce something short and to the point.

Obviously when you are in place there are some many things composing the picture that it becomes really hard to isolate the main points. So, on one hand, if I would summarize all the long post above, it would be like this: people wanted some kind of super hero, and for some odd psychological mass effect, they chose Bolsonaro. Some dug deep in to this choice, some made a (extremely irresponsible) bet saying that they were "open minded" (sorry, this is so idiotic, knowing the circumstances, I cannot help it...).

One thing that I did not mention above is the kind of people that composes his government. In one word: ignorance. From the worst type. People who simply do not have a clue, it is almost like a government of internet trolls, that were suddenly pulled from their dark basements. All they are able to do is to repeat the same thing all over again. They are moving collective second hand embarrassaments.

There are two ministers who are the at least "presentable" ones. The finance minister, Paulo Guedes, who is a hard core liberal (the other is the justice minister, another long story, more complicated). Hell, I am a hard core liberal too (in what regards the economy) , so I more than agree that a liberal shock would be good. However, the guy is limited, but think he is a genius.I can live with that. He is full of ressentment of other guys who are simply better than him, so he wants to do everything different (specially regarding people from the first Fernando Henrique Cardoso government). Ok, I still can live with that (hardly). Problem is that the guy has a very shady history that might directly interfere with the way he runs the economy.

And, here is another giant crazy thing. Part of the votes Bolsonaro got where from the people who really wanted a liberal economy. Ok, that is legitimate. This Paulo Guedes was the reason they voted. However, up until at most one and a half year ago, Bolsonaro's speech was completely developmentist nationalist. He was known primarily from his absurd phrases, and secondarily by this feature, which was the main trait of the military government that he praises so much. You know better than me that this is almost the opposite of a liberal stance.So our "liberal project" (of which there is only talk right now) will last as long as Bolsonaro is happy with his minister. All this can end with a snap of his fingers. Bolsonaro himself is not a liberal, never was, and he cannot be, because he simply does not even understand what this is all about.

Hope that I at least could give an idea how inconsistent things are. But, of course, we can always stay "open minded"....

(Sorry for a second long post.)
 
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Horsa

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My previous post ended up long and boring. I was tired and sleepy and simply was not able to produce something short and to the point.

Obviously when you are in place there are some many things composing the picture that it becomes really hard to isolate the main points. So, on one hand, if I would summarize all the long post above, it would be like this: people wanted some kind of super hero, and for some odd psychological mass effect, they chose Bolsonaro. Some dug deep in to this choice, some made a (extremely irresponsible) bet saying that they were "open minded" (sorry, this is so idiotic, knowing the circumstances, I cannot help it...).

One thing that I did not mention above is the kind of people that composes his government. In one word: ignorance. From the worst type. People who simply do not have a clue, it is almost like a government of internet trolls, that were suddenly pulled from their dark basements. All they are able to do is to repeat the same thing all over again. They are moving collective second hand embarrassaments.

There are two ministers who are the at least "presentable" ones. The finance minister, Paulo Guedes, who is a hard core liberal (the other is the justice minister, another long story, more complicated). Hell, I am a hard core liberal too (in what regards the economy) , so I more than agree that a liberal shock would be good. However, the guy is limited, but think he is a genius.I can live with that. He is full of ressentment of other guys who are simply better than him, so he wants to do everything different (specially regarding people from the first Fernando Henrique Cardoso government). Ok, I still can live with that (hardly). Problem is that the guy has a very shady history that might directly interfere with the way he runs the economy.

And, here is another giant crazy thing. Part of the votes Bolsonaro got where from the people who really wanted a liberal economy. Ok, that is legitimate. This Paulo Guedes was the reason they voted. However, up until at most one and a half year ago, Bolsonaro's speech was completely developmentist nationalist. He was known primarily from his absurd phrases, and secondarily by this feature, which was the main trait of the military government that he praises so much. You know better than me that this is almost the opposite of a liberal stance.So our "liberal project" (of which there is only talk right now) will last as long as Bolsonaro is happy with his minister. All this can end with a snap of his fingers. Bolsonaro himself is not a liberal, never was, and he cannot be, because he simply does not even understand what this is all about.

Hope that I at least could give an idea how inconsistent things are. But, of course, we can always stay "open minded"....

(Sorry for a second long post.)
I actually like your long posts so don't think you should apologise. I like listening to your rants sometimes (when they're not too blunt) & especially like it when you go into story-telling mode. I think that as well as the stated reasons you were also angry at what is going on in your country & I would be too. I think some of what you're saying about what is happening is downright disgusting like the idea of being killed for having ideas & being homosexual. It's extremely scary that you have that calibre of government. I don't mind people having egos as big as houses if they've got ability to go with them but realise it's normally the not-so-capable people who have the egos as big as houses while more capable people don't always think so highly of themselves as they should.
 

Federberg

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Long, long sigh. That picture/dialogue that you describe is quite common. I will try to answer it as shortly as I can not to bore you (and others) to death.

Yes, it was time for a change. And change is generally good.However, there were 13 different candidates, and from those 13, 4 of them were completely opposition, open, declared and very antagonistic to the party that was in place from 2002 to 2016 (impeachment year). 2 were less critical but still open opposition, 2 were even more to the left (real hard core left), 2 very small and already folkloric, 1 completely crazy (really). The other two were Bolsonaro himself and the guy from the ousted party, PT.

The four I mentioned first were from structured parties and were known to the public. So there were other possible changes. Now Bolsonaro is no Trump, he does not come from the "outside". He is professional politician. 2 from those 4 I mentioned above are waaaay much outsiders than him. The "time for a change" argument is simply empty, to say the least.

Then there is corruption argument. This is completely and utterly crazy. The only factual reason to believe that Bolsonaro would fight corruption is his own word. Which is exactly what every politician in the world does. But he has this "though guy" rhetoric, not backed up by facts. His possessions grew in a way not compatible to his earnings. All his sons, that got into politics, done the same, one case is well known to the public, the growth is exponential. Those are open, public, and specially, uncontested data (you know me, I checked the source). The only reason that they are not multi-millionaires (at least apparently) is that they until very little time ago they were marginal figures with no access to large sums. If you consider what they had access to, their appetite is at least on the average of your basic corrupt politician. In fact, the figures which one of his sons is being asked to explain (with zero success) are larger than the specific ones ultimately responsible for Lula's arrest (which I consider correct, if the info I have is sound). Bolsonaro and his sons are deeply connected to the Rio de Janeiro militias, they even have open and known bills to pardon and legalize those militias (that kill and decapitate people at will, charge protection, etc and etc). Not to mention his recorded views on how politicians work (and he does not say it critically). Last but not least, there are direct connections between his sons and collaborators to the two identified (still only accused) killers of a Rio de Janeiro city counselor a year ago (Mariele Franco). This will ultimately lead to his impeachment (mark my words). At least 70% of what I wrote above was there for all to see before the election. The corruption argument only holds for those who desperately want to believe it.

Then there is the part I wanted to tackle all along. The "brushing aside" part. You see his supporters (and I bet this person was, and probably was simply ashamed to admit it) constantly brushing aside and shrugging of arguments, as they were minor or simply lies. The truth is that they don't give a shit. The guy spent 25 years saying all kinds of absurdities. There are loads of different collections, the most popular ones are not even my favorites. If you want just google translate this page. (random choice). Most of this is caught on video or part of an published interview (never contested). Now their usual excuse is that he was taken "out of context". You guessed it, I checked. From all the cases I saw (more than 30), in only two you can say he was out context -- or was somewhat justifiable. One case is quite famous, his altercations with a far left congresswoman (a giant idiot, by the way). She called him a rapist (with zero evidence, actually out of a bill he was proposing to chemically castrate rapists), and he replied that she did not deserved to be raped by him. Idiotic and absurd answer sure but she started it with a strong accusation. Another one (barely cited nowadays), the journalist tricked him and changed the question asked afterwards, so the answer would look quite worst. The rest (which mount to hundreds) is simply factual truth. Ok, you can brushed it all aside. I only ask, what else a guy needs to say? I want to kill people out of their ideas, I wan t to kill and batter homosexuals, I miss used public money... what else does he needs to say? It is crazy.

I had another point, which is the people he brought to the government, but this is already way too long.
this is very interesting to know thanks. Always good to get local knowledge. It sounds like his supporters suffer from the same confirmation bias that Trump supporters do. This is the way of the world now. Re: the woman I was chatting to, I'm not sure when she even last went back to Brazil. If I remember correctly she's from somewhere in the north east, married to a rich white guy. I suspect her views were biased in the sense that she just wanted to put her country of origin in the best light possible which is understandable to some extent
 

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My previous post ended up long and boring. I was tired and sleepy and simply was not able to produce something short and to the point.

Obviously when you are in place there are some many things composing the picture that it becomes really hard to isolate the main points. So, on one hand, if I would summarize all the long post above, it would be like this: people wanted some kind of super hero, and for some odd psychological mass effect, they chose Bolsonaro. Some dug deep in to this choice, some made a (extremely irresponsible) bet saying that they were "open minded" (sorry, this is so idiotic, knowing the circumstances, I cannot help it...).

One thing that I did not mention above is the kind of people that composes his government. In one word: ignorance. From the worst type. People who simply do not have a clue, it is almost like a government of internet trolls, that were suddenly pulled from their dark basements. All they are able to do is to repeat the same thing all over again. They are moving collective second hand embarrassaments.

There are two ministers who are the at least "presentable" ones. The finance minister, Paulo Guedes, who is a hard core liberal (the other is the justice minister, another long story, more complicated). Hell, I am a hard core liberal too (in what regards the economy) , so I more than agree that a liberal shock would be good. However, the guy is limited, but think he is a genius.I can live with that. He is full of ressentment of other guys who are simply better than him, so he wants to do everything different (specially regarding people from the first Fernando Henrique Cardoso government). Ok, I still can live with that (hardly). Problem is that the guy has a very shady history that might directly interfere with the way he runs the economy.

And, here is another giant crazy thing. Part of the votes Bolsonaro got where from the people who really wanted a liberal economy. Ok, that is legitimate. This Paulo Guedes was the reason they voted. However, up until at most one and a half year ago, Bolsonaro's speech was completely developmentist nationalist. He was known primarily from his absurd phrases, and secondarily by this feature, which was the main trait of the military government that he praises so much. You know better than me that this is almost the opposite of a liberal stance.So our "liberal project" (of which there is only talk right now) will last as long as Bolsonaro is happy with his minister. All this can end with a snap of his fingers. Bolsonaro himself is not a liberal, never was, and he cannot be, because he simply does not even understand what this is all about.

Hope that I at least could give an idea how inconsistent things are. But, of course, we can always stay "open minded"....

(Sorry for a second long post.)
that is so interesting. The parallels with Trump's appointments are obvious. I can only hope that some good comes out of it. I have to concede that the status quo in a lot of places has been unacceptable. Radical change of some sort was necessary. Where I quibble is the solutions that voters have chosen. It is deeply ironic to me that without a Trump voters in Brazil might have thought this a step too far
 

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I have to say.. the more I see of this Mayor Pete, Democratic candidate for President, the more impressed I become. This dude is special
 
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it's fascinating listening to Elizabeth Warren's argument for breaking up Big Tech. She is being labelled as a socialist yet as far as I can see her proposals are the purest form of capitalism I've heard in a long time. Take the example of Amazon. She wants to break up the company so that there is a separation between the platform and the retail company. Furthermore she wants to put in protections for consumers data so that they can't monetise our personal preferences. She is absolutely right. Think about it, Amazon has the platform and allows other companies to sell on it, but Amazon also sells. They have an inherent advantage because not only can they undercut their retail competition they also know what we like and can therefore target sales to us. This is completely unfair. And what's the result of this monopoly? Amazon has been able to destroy retailers like Sears and Barnes & Noble. What good does that do to society as a whole. There are less jobs, wealth is concentrated and the economy loses as a whole. Why is that the case? Because fewer people are able to buy basic consumer products. If the path we are on is allowed to continue then the endgame is that the wealthy will have so much money and the rest of us will not be able to make purchases at all. It's utter madness. Well done Elizabeth Warren for pointing out something that should be so obvious. It really eats my craw that she is called socialist when her instincts are true to the best definitions of what capitalism is supposed to be about
 
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Moxie

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You have to absorb two things here: 1.) that the notion of Socialism has a bad connotation in the US, and 2.) that a lot of people in the US don't understand that a lot of their most cherished programs are actually socialist. They are thrilled that they now have healthcare, but they don't want "Obamacare." The poster child for this diametric thinking is the person who held up the sign: "Keep your government hands off of my Medicare." The Right and Fox News is now expressly targeting Alexandria Ocasia-Cortez as a socialist. Why? Because she's a potential super-star, not because she's a socialist. Realistically, who should even care about a first-term congresswoman from NY? Why so much attention paid and bile spilt over her? Because they're afraid of her. As you say, FB, Warren is a capitalist. The US is a very capitalist society. But it has room for social democracy in the Nordic or European or Canadian models.
 

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…………..So, the much awaited report is in! Will we get to read, at least this summer?
 

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You have to absorb two things here: 1.) that the notion of Socialism has a bad connotation in the US, and 2.) that a lot of people in the US don't understand that a lot of their most cherished programs are actually socialist. They are thrilled that they now have healthcare, but they don't want "Obamacare." The poster child for this diametric thinking is the person who held up the sign: "Keep your government hands off of my Medicare." The Right and Fox News is now expressly targeting Alexandria Ocasia-Cortez as a socialist. Why? Because she's a potential super-star, not because she's a socialist. Realistically, who should even care about a first-term congresswoman from NY? Why so much attention paid and bile spilt over her? Because they're afraid of her. As you say, FB, Warren is a capitalist. The US is a very capitalist society. But it has room for social democracy in the Nordic or European or Canadian models.
I actually question how capitalistic US society is. I have never seen any other country where the military industrial complex has such a lock on subsidies. It's absolutely crazy. What the US seems to practise is socialism for the wealthy. It's utterly bizarre to me, but it seems to be under the banner of some sort of souped up patriotism that's almost religious.
 

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I actually question how capitalistic US society is. I have never seen any other country where the military industrial complex has such a lock on subsidies. It's absolutely crazy. What the US seems to practise is socialism for the wealthy. It's utterly bizarre to me, but it seems to be under the banner of some sort of souped up patriotism that's almost religious.

Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor.
 
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Federberg

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Precisely, with the key word being “dream” (at least at this point).

Also, for those who haven’t heard this expression before, it’s not mine (I wish!). “Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor” has a long history.
that's very interesting. Didn't realise it was a thing. I know Bill Maher constantly critiques the military industrial complex as just a scam to subsidise the rich
 

JesuslookslikeBorg

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military industrial complex is defo a global scam that devours loads of taxpayers money.
 

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fascinating looking at Barr's take on the Mueller report and the quality of the media's take on it.

Here's an example..[The special counsels..]"investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities." What does this mean? Does "did not establish" mean that there is some evidence but not beyond a reasonable doubt? Why did Barr narrow his interpretation to "the Russian government" when we all know that the primary alleged interactions were with oligarchs, or as the Russians say the Siloviki. For those who don't know the way Russia seems to work is that you have Putin and the government and then you have the oligarchs who have acquired wealth with the blessing of Putin who are referred to as the Siloviki. So are we supposed to understand that there was no direct conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government but that there is evidence that there was contact with the Siloviki? It always concerns me when lawyers use lawyers speak and don't give declarative statements? I'm really confused now. What is clear though is that it is false to say this is a total exoneration. I think that the only way to completely clear this up is for the full report to be made public. It's extremely disappointing that Mueller appears to have collated facts but seems to have been unwilling to make his own determination. This doesn't help get a definitive resolution to this whole thing.

Those who want to bang on about HRC and emails and Benghazi, which went on for much longer and with far less evidence, shouldn't feel that they have the right to close the book on this now. It's just a complete mess. And the media who are deemed to be biased in favour of the Democrats seem only too happy to go along with Presidential exoneration where "collusion" is concerned, while they were happy to perpetuate the HRC scandals. I fail to see the bias in favour of Democrats.

In any case it seems that the politics will be on a knife edge now. With the aid of the media the Republicans will be able to claim that Trump is scot free on this, while there is plenty for Democrats to investigate, whether on Russia or on corruption between now and 2020. If I were the Democratic Presidential candidates I would stay well away from any of this. Focus on what they propose to do for the American people and let Congress take the baton up on the whole mess and fulfil their constitutional duties of checks and balances.

I would end by saying that this reminds me of the day after the 2018 mid-term elections when it seemed as if the results were in favour of the Republicans. It got steadily worse after that. I fear this might be the same again...
 
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I would end by saying that this reminds me of the day after the 2018 mid-term elections when it seemed as if the results were in favour of the Republicans. It got steadily worse after that. I fear this might be the same again...

I don’t understand. How did it seem that the day after the 2018 midterms the results were in favor of the Republicans? The Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives.
 

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I don’t understand. How did it seem that the day after the 2018 midterms the results were in favor of the Republicans? The Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives.
I meant relative to expectations the Republican losses didn't seem that big a deal. It was the resounding repudiation that had been predicted. I recall watching folks on CNN re-assessing how much of a rejection of Trump had been expected and consequentially what the chances against him in 2020 were likely to be. And then day after day, week after week the numbers grew in favour of Democrats
 
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