US Politics Thread

[britbox]

No one thinks this is normal. It's outrageous, on so many fronts.

I see the Kentucky accuser has admitted she made the whole thing up for attention.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...l-assault-accuser-judy-munro-leighton-2018-11

Some of this shit is way beyond the pale. There needs to be due process... way too much stuff getting reported as if it's true by default.

 

[britbox]

Interesting analysis by Michael Moore. I feel this guy kind of gets it.

[parsehtml]
<a class="embedly-card" href="https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/michael-moore-take-trump-seriously-and-don-t-listen-to-pelosi-or-the-polls-1361311811782?v=raila&">Michael Moore: Take Trump seriously and don't listen to Pelosi or the polls</a>
[/parsehtml]If the Dems don't win this comfortably then it will cast a giant shadow over pollsters going forward.

One thing the Dems need to do is stop playing this identity politics nonsense and actually start putting together some practical ideas and solutions... an alternative.

Trump is basically working on a "This is the problem as I see it..." premise, followed by "This is how I am going to address it". It's simple but powerful. Some of the "problems" are completely blown out of proportion by the way.

The Dems response is largely reactive... attacking Trump's "solutions" but not really offering any sort of alternative or re-addressing the scope of the problem.

Let's take this Honduras Caravan for instance... This is a pretty small wave of people (decreasing by the day). Trump has said they won't be entering the USA and is sending troops to the border.

Let's break this down... the problem is small but it's been magnified to the extent that you'd think 250,000 people were heading to the border. So, with that in mind... the problem has been created, and Trump is providing a solution.

What do the Dems do? Start attacking Trump, activists start launching law suits against the US....

What should happen? The Dems need to make it clear what their policy is on this and act accordingly. The problem with the Dems is that nobody knows what they are standing for other than an "Anything but Trump" card. It's a cowardly approach and the party lacks any sort of tangible leadership.

I'd be interested in @Moxie's view on the caravan. With European migrants from the east, she thought everybody should just be let in, unchecked and unvetted. Does that apply to the US?

 

[Federberg]

Let's look at his key pledges...

Obamacare... repealed as stated.
NAFTA... withdraw or renegotiate. It's done.
Deal with ISIS... I'd say he's contributed, although the Russians probably played the bigger role.
Temporarily ban muslims from specific countries entering the US until he addressed the policies... He did it. (not something I agree with, but it was a fulfilled pledge)
Revisit the Iran deal... Done (I don't agree with this at all by the way)
Withdraw or renegotiate the TPP... Done
Impose tariffs on goods from China... Done
Bring manufacturing jobs back... In progress...biggest increase for years and employment overall has risen.
Cut taxes... Done
Build a wall... we'll see.

Stay behind for extra homework.

don't have time to fully respond but as to this bit...

Obamacare... repealed as stated. If you think Obamacare has been repealed.... I don't know what to say. It simply hasn't. Where are you getting your news mate? Obamacare is stronger and more popular than ever. It looks like costing the GOP the House. Can you at least keep up with what's going on? It would make this debate more enjoyable, seriously....

NAFTA... withdraw or renegotiate. It's done. Lol! You call a very slight alteration which ironically uses the enhancements TPP would have added meeting his promises? Mate your bar is so low I don't know if a snake could crawl under it!

Deal with ISIS... I'd say he's contributed, although the Russians probably played the bigger role. Yes it looks done. I'm not sure if credit is merited, it's very obvious that there hasn't been much of a change in US military posture since Obama. But I'm willing to give him this one

I could go on... but this is becoming boring already. Let me get to the point... the last two on your list...

Cut taxes... Done He didn't just say cut taxes mate. He said cut taxes for the middle class. For him to have done that it would require a permanent cut in taxes, sadly he didn't do that. Please at least try to be accurate. For the record, I agreed with a plan to cut corporate taxes but only if it was fiscally neutral

Build a wall... we'll see. Bwahahaha! What the fuck does "we'll see" mean. And let's again try to be honest about what he actually claimed, his promise was specifically to build a wall and get Mexico to pay for it.This was his signature promise. The big cahuna, the numero uno if you will. It hasn't happened mate. And it ain't gonna happen, not with AMLO!

Re: manufacturing jobs. If you want to give Trump credit for the Obama recovery go ahead. That has as much credibility as Obamacare having been repealed. I mean.. the fact you can't even remember McCain signalling "nyet" to the repeal legislation is just stunning to me

 

[britbox]

don't have time to fully respond but as to this bit...

Obamacare... repealed as stated. If you think Obamacare has been repealed.... I don't know what to say. It simply hasn't. Where are you getting your news mate? Obamacare is stronger and more popular than ever. It looks like costing the GOP the House. Can you at least keep up with what's going on? It would make this debate more enjoyable, seriously....

OK mate. Let's split hairs if you like. Changed Obamacare. Repealed the individual mandate... clearly wanted a lot more.

NAFTA... withdraw or renegotiate. It's done. Lol! You call a very slight alteration which ironically uses the enhancements TPP would have added meeting his promises? Mate your bar is so low I don't know if a snake could crawl under it!

A renegotiation nevertheless.

Deal with ISIS... I'd say he's contributed, although the Russians probably played the bigger role. Yes it looks done. I'm not sure if credit is merited, it's very obvious that there hasn't been much of a change in US military posture since Obama. But I'm willing to give him this one

OK, so you've moved.

Cut taxes... Done He didn't just say cut taxes mate. He said cut taxes for the middle class. For him to have done that it would require a permanent cut in taxes, sadly he didn't do that. Please at least try to be accurate. For the record, I agreed with a plan to cut corporate taxes but only if it was fiscally neutral

Give me a break. He did cut tax rates for the middle class. No tax rates are really permanent in any event... Jeez, you're the economist around here - you know that. You'll also probably be expecting some additional movement on this on due course if you're honest.

Build a wall... we'll see. Bwahahaha! What the fuck does "we'll see" mean. And let's again try to be honest about what he actually claimed, his promise was specifically to build a wall and get Mexico to pay for it.This was his signature promise. The big cahuna, the numero uno if you will. It hasn't happened mate. And it ain't gonna happen, not with AMLO!

It's a promise he still insists will happen. Like I said, "we'll see"... but put it this way, I'd be surprised if the wall building didn't take place. The Mexicans paying for it... I'm sure there will be spin on it to say how the Mexicans paid for it... because he left in the disclosure "one way or another"... I know as well as you that there won't be some ceremony where the Mexicans will be handing over a bumper sized cheque.

Re: manufacturing jobs. If you want to give Trump credit for the Obama recovery go ahead. That has as much credibility as Obamacare having been repealed. I mean.. the fact you can't even remember McCain signalling "nyet" to the repeal legislation is just stunning to me

I'll give Trump some credit... and it meets the pledge.

Anyway, you skipped a bunch of others, but never mind...

 

[Federberg]

Give me a break. He did cut tax rates for the middle class. No tax rates are really permanent in any event... Jeez, you're the economist around here - you know that. You'll also probably be expecting some additional movement on this on due course if you're honest.

sigh.. mate there's a difference in how consumers react to what they perceive as a permanent cut and a rebate. Everyone knows what passes off as a middle class tax cut is not only negligible but it's temporary as well. Hence my emphasis. So... I repeat, it wasn't a real cut for the middle class. There was one for the rich and corporations. Perhaps you should do some homework, it's been discussed ad nauseum in financial journals

And if I'm being honest, the fact that the fiscal situation has deteriorated more rapidly than even the most negative projections makes me darn sure that whatever "additional movement" comes in due course is more likely to be a reversal. Trump will actually likely benefit in terms of his 2020 ambitions by having a Dem House to blame for any fiscally responsible changes which are brought it

 

[britbox]

sigh.. mate there's a difference in how consumers react to what they perceive as a permanent cut and a rebate. Everyone knows what passes off as a middle class tax cut is not only negligible but it's temporary as well. Hence my emphasis. So... I repeat, it wasn't a real cut for the middle class. There was one for the rich and corporations. Perhaps you should do some homework, it's been discussed ad nauseum in financial journals

And if I'm being honest, the fact that the fiscal situation has deteriorated more rapidly than even the most negative projections makes me darn sure that whatever "additional movement" comes in due course is more likely to be a reversal. Trump will actually likely benefit in terms of his 2020 ambitions by having a Dem House to blame for any fiscally responsible changes which are brought it

I don't read financial journals mate.

But this is the prima facie information I am going on...

Tax rates (US)

Is this information wrong? And I've been led to believe these tax changes will be in place for 7 years? Is this wrong too?

I'm not trying to be a smart ass here Fb... but you're categorically stating that Trump has not cut taxes for the middle class and those rates seem to indicate he has.

Is the data I'm working from bullshit?

 

[Moxie]

I don't read financial journals mate.

But this is the prima facie information I am going on...

Tax rates (US)

View attachment 1998

View attachment 1999

Is this information wrong? And I've been led to believe these tax changes will be in place for 7 years? Is this wrong too?

I'm not trying to be a smart ass here Fb... but you're categorically stating that Trump has not cut taxes for the middle class and those rates seem to indicate he has.

Is the data I'm working from bullshit?

You're working from a simple chart. Where the real "cuts" come in, as far as I can tell, are from how you can shelter your money and pay below your tax rate. Obviously, rich people pay expensive lawyers to help them do that. Remember that Trump has bragged he paid no taxes for years. Whether that's true or not, we can't know, but he wasn't paying any 37-39%, that seems certain. Whereas, the new tax plan DID cut many of the options for getting a tax break specifically to freelancers in the entertainment industry. Most of these people would be run-of-the-mill working stiffs like myself. Most of us DO work freelance, and, no coincidence, most of us live in NY-area and CA. That's straight-up punishment for politics. My accountant, who is a FAR more conservative person than I am, told me the rhetoric is BS, and that all accountants knew it was going to hurt the middle class and help the rich. He has middle class people now in danger of losing their houses, due to changes in the tax code. This is boots on the ground reality, even if you don't read that financial journals.

 

[Moxie]

Interesting analysis by Michael Moore. I feel this guy kind of gets it.

[parsehtml]
<a class="embedly-card" href="https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/michael-moore-take-trump-seriously-and-don-t-listen-to-pelosi-or-the-polls-1361311811782?v=raila&">Michael Moore: Take Trump seriously and don't listen to Pelosi or the polls</a>
[/parsehtml]If the Dems don't win this comfortably then it will cast a giant shadow over pollsters going forward.

One thing the Dems need to do is stop playing this identity politics nonsense and actually start putting together some practical ideas and solutions... an alternative.

Trump is basically working on a "This is the problem as I see it..." premise, followed by "This is how I am going to address it". It's simple but powerful. Some of the "problems" are completely blown out of proportion by the way.

The Dems response is largely reactive... attacking Trump's "solutions" but not really offering any sort of alternative or re-addressing the scope of the problem.

Let's take this Honduras Caravan for instance... This is a pretty small wave of people (decreasing by the day). Trump has said they won't be entering the USA and is sending troops to the border.

Let's break this down... the problem is small but it's been magnified to the extent that you'd think 250,000 people were heading to the border. So, with that in mind... the problem has been created, and Trump is providing a solution.

What do the Dems do? Start attacking Trump, activists start launching law suits against the US....

What should happen? The Dems need to make it clear what their policy is on this and act accordingly. The problem with the Dems is that nobody knows what they are standing for other than an "Anything but Trump" card. It's a cowardly approach and the party lacks any sort of tangible leadership.

I'd be interested in @Moxie's view on the caravan. With European migrants from the east, she thought everybody should just be let in, unchecked and unvetted. Does that apply to the US?

I'm interested in what I actually said, rather than your interpretation of it. That doesn't sound like me, but I was on the side of providing shelter to refugees, as I am on the southern US border. As to the bolded above, specific to the caravan, it HAS been blown out of proportion...by Trump. He's telling people that it's a bunch of dangerous people, including Islamist terrorists. He's creating fear so he can look like he's dealing with something that is no immediate threat...oh, right....and just before the election. And I hope you understand that sending troops to deal with a police situation is illegal.

 

[britbox]

You're working from a simple chart. Where the real "cuts" come in, as far as I can tell, are from how you can shelter your money and pay below your tax rate. Obviously, rich people pay expensive lawyers to help them do that. Remember that Trump has bragged he paid no taxes for years. Whether that's true or not, we can't know, but he wasn't paying any 37-39%, that seems certain. Whereas, the new tax plan DID cut many of the options for getting a tax break specifically to freelancers in the entertainment industry. Most of these people would be run-of-the-mill working stiffs like myself. Most of us DO work freelance, and, no coincidence, most of us live in NY-area and CA. That's straight-up punishment for politics. My accountant, who is a FAR more conservative person than I am, told me the rhetoric is BS, and that all accountants knew it was going to hurt the middle class and help the rich. He has middle class people now in danger of losing their houses, due to changes in the tax code. This is boots on the ground reality, even if you don't read that financial journals.

Moxie, you don't need to convince me of Trump's lack of integrity.

So what you are essentially saying is that while the tax rate has been reduced, he's closed other loopholes on writing certain things off against tax? Giving with one hand and taking with the other... Is that a fair reading?

 

[Moxie]

Moxie, you don't need to convince me of Trump's lack of integrity.

So what you are essentially saying is that while the tax rate has been reduced, he's closed other loopholes on writing certain things off against tax? Giving with one hand and taking with the other... Is that a fair reading?

Don't ask me to explain the taxes to you. I've just told you what I know. Federberg is more up on it all. I will tell you that you know that American tax law is complicated. We don't do a one-sheet like Britain. And the laws favor the wealthy, which hasn't changed. By all accounts, the recent changes favor the wealthy and corporations even more, but put the poor/middle class at a disadvantage.

And I know I don't have to tell you that Trump has no integrity. You keep saying you know it. Which makes me wonder why you defend him so much. He hasn't really gotten that much done, and he sure does get into bed with the wrong people.

 

[Moxie]

Did I forget to mention his claim about them bringing "leprosy and smallpox?" Smallpox was eliminated from the planet 40 years ago. And leprosy...really? Why not a plague of locusts and frogs, too? If some want to keep bolstering a world leader who lies basically every day he wakes up, I can't debate that. It's on you if you're OK with that.

 

[britbox]

Did I forget to mention his claim about them bringing "leprosy and smallpox?" Smallpox was eliminated from the planet 40 years ago. And leprosy...really? Why not a plague of locusts and frogs, too? If some want to keep bolstering a world leader who lies basically every day he wakes up, I can't debate that. It's on you if you're OK with that.

Trump said that did he?

 

[Moxie]

Trump said that did he?

OK, in fairness that seems to be a Fox news person:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-n...arrying-smallpox-a-disease-eradicated-in-1980

But Trump listens to Fox News all day long, and he has the opportunity to refute these things, or put the kibosh on them, but he just lets them hang out there.

Otherwise, Trump, while acknowledging that there is no proof there are Middle Easterners in it, he then keeps stoking the fires on that:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-admits-proof-middle-easterners-caravan/story?id=58686056

 

[Moxie]

And this one is worth a read. I know you don't put much stake in how Trump's rhetoric drums up the hate, but do read it.

 

[Federberg]

I don't read financial journals mate.

But this is the prima facie information I am going on...

Tax rates (US)

View attachment 1998

View attachment 1999

Is this information wrong? And I've been led to believe these tax changes will be in place for 7 years? Is this wrong too?

I'm not trying to be a smart ass here Fb... but you're categorically stating that Trump has not cut taxes for the middle class and those rates seem to indicate he has.

Is the data I'm working from bullshit?

It's not wrong as far as it goes. Sorry I've had things to do in the real world so only catching up now. Moxie is right, you have to factor in the whole package. The rebates in big blue States seriously put into question how much of a tax cut this really is for the non super wealthy. This is one of the most outrageous and stupid economic policies I've seen in a time of plenty. I'm simply horrified at the recklessness. Anyway let's see what happens in the mid-terms. I'm amazed you want to build your position on the side of Trump, I hope in the decades to come you'll own it and not be one of those who deny it

 

[britbox]

It's not wrong as far as it goes. Sorry I've had things to do in the real world so only catching up now. Moxie is right, you have to factor in the whole package. The rebates in big blue States seriously put into question how much of a tax cut this really is for the non super wealthy. This is one of the most outrageous and stupid economic policies I've seen in a time of plenty. I'm simply horrified at the recklessness. Anyway let's see what happens in the mid-terms. I'm amazed you want to build your position on the side of Trump, I hope in the decades to come you'll own it and not be one of those who deny it

Sigh... what is this...? The George Bush school of "You're either with us or against us..." playground stuff?

Sorry pal, I'll just give my opinion as I see it. I've been critical of Trump on this thread plenty of times... but I'm equally critical of the avalanche of bullshit spewed by left-wing media in equal abandon.

I don't find a fully documented FBI investigation that proved Hillary Clinton was transmitting and receiving classified information to and from her servers as being comparable to the leak that Trump uses a personal phone to call friends and family... which hasn't even been investigated. That was what you tagged me on the thread to comment on, no? Like I said, it's not comparable. Apples and oranges. If Trump is investigated and found to have sent classified information from his basement then we'll have some commonality to consider. Sorry, that doesn't make me a huge Trump cheerleader...

It might upset you guys that I call out some of the stuff posted... Like the claim that Trump said smallpox and leprosy was being brought into the country by the immigrant caravan... when in fact it was some guest on a Fox talk show. Moxie even thinks the President of the United States should make an announcement to correct the talk show guest. Really??

It might piss you off that I give Trump a bit more credit than the description of a failed businessman, dreadful politician, stupid, crap orator... The guy is a multi-millionaire (I won't even say, billionaire, as I'm not wholly convinced that he is) and also the President of the United States. If somebody gets to that position then I'd hazard a guess that they've got a little bit more upstairs and a little bit smarter than you guys give them credit for.

Yeah, and I don't buy Russia as being the primary reason Trump won the election either.

But, he's not presidential, he's a blowhard, tells lots of lies, lacks integrity, wildly exaggerates stuff and is taking big risks... but I've already said this before... on numerous occasions.

On another note, the media onslaught and the low standard of partisan journalistic reporting with very little integrity has frankly been appalling.

Sorry... the two aren't mutually exclusive. You can have Trump and wildly partisan hysterical media at the same time. You can have failed policies, policies that haven't been implemented, stupid policies, together with policies that have been implemented at the same time also. This doesn't need to be binary and nor should they be if you want a reasonable conversation.

But since you're asking the kind of politics I like - More Ron Paul than Donald Trump, hope that clears it up for you.

Now, the interesting conundrum in all this, is the Mueller investigation. We'll see what that churns out. I know the likes of CNN/MSNBC will seize on anything and magnify it way beyond proportion... but the breaker for me personally is if Trump himself colluded with the Russians.

Anyway, to wrap up, the Dems will likely have a good day today and by all accounts are going to win the house. However, what the Dems should be doing is figuring out what they stand for and offering some alternatives. They've already lost a big chunk of the traditional working class vote because of this ridiculous obsession with identity politics.

 

[britbox]

So the Dems take the house and the GOP retain the senate. Interesting times ahead...

 

[DarthFed]

^ More interesting tweets from our beloved president than anything else.

 

[Moxie]

For someone with no skin in the game, you take all this awfully personally, BB. Plus, I'm not sure how much you really watch/read our media. There's more than FOX and CNN, you know.

 

[britbox]

For someone with no skin in the game, you take all this awfully personally, BB. Plus, I'm not sure how much you really watch/read our media. There's more than FOX and CNN, you know.

You think? In what respect? I guess you enjoyed Jim Acosta's performance at the White House... Shameful journalism.