Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the updated Race to London Points after the US Open is over. The Live Rankings
Page is not updated and so I did the calculations myself. Also, keep in mind that
ATP will update its data only next Monday, the 15th of September as they do it only once
a week on Mondays and we had a Monday final today. So, when you see the discrepancy
you know that the info below is the correct one. Those in bold face have already qualified.
Cilic and Nishikori are at the top of the serious contenders list. However, recall that due
to his GS win, Cilic has special exemption and will be considered qualified as long as
he finishes within top 20 in rankings and that is virtually certain and hence I have
italicized his name See Playing in WTF without being in top eight thread for
more on this subject. Of course, Cilic will qualify in the normal way too, just that
it is not official right now. So, in reality there are only three open spots for the WTF.

There is a tough fight for these three spots from six players Nishikori, Ferrer, Berdych,
Milos, Grigor and Murray with a mere 520 point separation between them that can almost
be wiped off by one ATP 500 win. To emphasize the closeness of the contest, I have added an
extra column which shows the difference between points. Tsonga and Gulbis have some
chances, but a long shot. RBA is the head of the pretenders list. Brace yourself for
an exciting contest during the Asian Swing and the Indoor Swing. Every single point
matters now for the six serious contenders.


1. Novak Djokovic 8150
2. Roger Federer 6880
3. Rafa Nadal 6645
4. Stan Wawrinka 4725

----------Serious Contenders -------------------------

5. Marin Cilic 3935
6. Kei Nishikori 3675 ----- 260
7. David Ferrer 3535 ----- 140
8. Thomas Berdych 3510 ----- 25
9. Milos Raonic 3425 ----- 85
10. Grigor Dimitrov 3335 ----- 90
11. Andy Murray 3155 ----- 180

----------Long Shot Contenders----------------------

12. Tsonga 2555 ------ 600
13. Gulbis 2400 ------ 155

-----------Head of Pretenders ------------------------

14. R.B. Agut 1800 ------ 600

 

[Fiero425]

Here are the updated Race to London Points after the US Open is over. Keep in mind that
ATP will update its data only next Monday, the 15th of September as they do it only once
a week on Mondays and we had a Monday final today. So, when you see the discrepancy
you know that the info below is the correct one. Those in bold face have already qualified.
Cilic and Nishikori are at the top of the serious contenders list. However, recall that due
to his GS win, Cilic has special exemption and will be considered qualified as long as
he finishes within top 20 in rankings and that is virtually certain and hence I have
italicized his name. So, in reality there are only three open spots for the WTF.

There is a tough fight for these three spots from six players Nishikori, Ferrer, Berdych,
Milos, Grigor and Murray with a mere 520 point separation between them that can almost
be wiped off by one ATP 500 win. To emphasize the closeness of the contest, I have added an
extra column which shows the difference between points. Tsonga and Gulbis have some
chances, but a long shot. RBA is the head of the pretenders list. Brace yourself for
an exciting contest during the Asian Swing and the Indoor Swing. Every single point
matters now for the six serious contenders.


1. Novak Djokovic 8150
2. Roger Federer 6880
3. Rafa Nadal 6645
4. Stan Wawrinka 4725

----------Serious Contenders -------------------------

5. Marin Cilic 3935
6. Kei Nishikori 3675 ----- 260
7. David Ferrer 3535 ----- 140
8. Thomas Berdych 3510 ----- 25
9. Milos Raonic 3425 ----- 85
10. Grigor Dimitrov 3335 ----- 90
11. Andy Murray 3155 ----- 180

----------Long Shot Contenders----------------------

12. Tsonga 2555 ------ 600
13. Gulbis 2400 ------ 155

-----------Head of Pretenders ------------------------

14. R.B. Agut 1800 ------ 600

Did you take in consideration that Rafa might not come back at all this season; as he's done before! That would qualify another person if he takes a powder until next year! :nono uzzled :angel:

 

[Moxie]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

 

[Moxie]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

With the number of points Nadal has to defend from last autumn, Novak would have to skip more than Bercy, or do really poorly at defending, given the points gap.

 

[herios]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

If Novak will be with his head somewhere else and also skip some events, the first who would take advantage is actually Roger because he is ahead of Rafa in the Race to London race and he also usually performs well down the stretch, better than Rafa.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

With the number of points Nadal has to defend from last autumn, Novak would have to skip more than Bercy, or do really poorly at defending, given the points gap.

I don't know how many times I need to correct. The defending issue is irrelevant here
for YE #1 determination.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

If Novak will be with his head somewhere else and also skip some events, the first who would take advantage is actually Roger because he is ahead of Rafa in the Race to London race and he also usually performs well down the stretch, better than Rafa.

I hope you are right and Roger takes advantage. However, Roger has just 235 points
lead over Rafa and it can vanish in a jiffy when they meet in a match at SF or higher level
and Rafa beats Roger.

You should also keep in mind that Roger is currently #2 in race only and not in rankings
and so in Shanghai the top two seeds will be Rafa and Novak and Roger will have 50% chance
of facing Rafa in SF.

 

[Moxie]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

With the number of points Nadal has to defend from last autumn, Novak would have to skip more than Bercy, or do really poorly at defending, given the points gap.

I don't know how many times I need to correct. The defending issue is irrelevant here
for YE #1 determination.

True, sorry, I was thinking about overall ranking. As the YE #1 often reflects the rankings, I can forget that it could be a separate thing.

 

[DarthFed]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

I thought his wife is due later this month? If that's the case he probably doesn't miss any of the MS events or YEC. I'd be surprised if Novak doesn't finish #1, he has been excellent in Fall the last 2 years and even if he misses 1 of the MS events I don't think Roger or Rafa will get enough points to finish ahead of him.

 

[Billie]

There is not much to consider, if Rafa doesn't play till the end of the season, which I highly doubt, the player ranked #9 will take his spot at the WTF, right?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There is not much to consider, if Rafa doesn't play till the end of the season, which I highly doubt, the player ranked #9 will take his spot at the WTF, right?

You are right, but there is no need to respond to that post thinking it was a legit post;
it was more of a post meant to irritate Rafa fans, IMO. That is why I left it unanswered.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

I thought his wife is due later this month? If that's the case he probably doesn't miss any of the MS events or YEC. I'd be surprised if Novak doesn't finish #1, he has been excellent in Fall the last 2 years and even if he misses 1 of the MS events I don't think Roger or Rafa will get enough points to finish ahead of him.

No. Jelena is due around Oct. 25 and so Novak's Bercy indoor masters is in serious danger.

 

[herios]

^ Why should he, since that's based on what intel? You're such an hysteric. puzzled:angel::laydownlaughing

Actually, I would not be surprised if Nadal ends with YE #1 again. He tends to play
well when coming after breaks. Also, Novak is expected to miss Bercy, an ATP 1000
event due to impending arrival in the family.

I thought his wife is due later this month? If that's the case he probably doesn't miss any of the MS events or YEC. I'd be surprised if Novak doesn't finish #1, he has been excellent in Fall the last 2 years and even if he misses 1 of the MS events I don't think Roger or Rafa will get enough points to finish ahead of him.

If I remember well, Novak's wife is due in the second half of October. That would be after Beijing and Shanghai. If this happens, he might go to Paris or not.

 

[Fiero425]

There is not much to consider, if Rafa doesn't play till the end of the season, which I highly doubt, the player ranked #9 will take his spot at the WTF, right?

You are right, but there is no need to respond to that post thinking it was a legit post;
it was more of a post meant to irritate Rafa fans, IMO. That is why I left it unanswered.

Why would you think that? It's a fact; Nadal has written off a season before and he can do it again! I said this after his Wimbledon loss; we might not see him again! The right wrist injury threw me since he plays left-handed even if he truly is right-handed! He's one strange GOAT(?) IMO! :nono uzzled :angel:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

6. Kei Nishikori 3675
7. David Ferrer 3535 ----- 140
8. Thomas Berdych 3510 ----- 25
9. Milos Raonic 3425 ----- 85
10. Grigor Dimitrov 3335 ----- 90
11. Andy Murray 3155 ----- 180

Three of the above will probably make it to WTF. I just now lookup the FedEx performance
rating of these six on indoor courts (a swing that will impact qualification) and found out
that Murray, Berdych and Raonic have better indoor court career performance record
than the other three.

 

[Moxie]

There is not much to consider, if Rafa doesn't play till the end of the season, which I highly doubt, the player ranked #9 will take his spot at the WTF, right?

You are right, but there is no need to respond to that post thinking it was a legit post;
it was more of a post meant to irritate Rafa fans, IMO. That is why I left it unanswered.

Why would you think that? It's a fact; Nadal has written off a season before and he can do it again! I said this after his Wimbledon loss; we might not see him again! The right wrist injury threw me since he plays left-handed even if he truly is right-handed! He's one strange GOAT(?) IMO! :nono uzzled :angel:

Don't worry, Fiero, I didn't think you meant to irritate Rafa fans. I think you're prone to outrageous leaps that have no logic involved. Rafa did skip the end of one season (2012), in his 13 years as a professional tennis player, so it might lead you to conclude he'll skip this one. Especially if it befuddles you that he's a righty that plays lefty with a right wrist injury...so confusing, I know. (And if I remind you that DelPo is a righty out with a left wrist injury, I hope that won't make your head explode.) :snigger

 

[herios]

6. Kei Nishikori 3675
7. David Ferrer 3535 ----- 140
8. Thomas Berdych 3510 ----- 25
9. Milos Raonic 3425 ----- 85
10. Grigor Dimitrov 3335 ----- 90
11. Andy Murray 3155 ----- 180

Three of the above will probably make it to WTF. I just now lookup the FedEx performance
rating of these six on indoor courts (a swing that will impact qualification) and found out
that Murray, Berdych and Raonic have better indoor court career performance record
than the other three.

Of the remaining 6 bigger events, 3 are outdoors: Beijing, Tokyo and Shanghai. So 50% will be indoors. You cannot go by those stats only.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

6. Kei Nishikori 3675
7. David Ferrer 3535 ----- 140
8. Thomas Berdych 3510 ----- 25
9. Milos Raonic 3425 ----- 85
10. Grigor Dimitrov 3335 ----- 90
11. Andy Murray 3155 ----- 180

Three of the above will probably make it to WTF. I just now lookup the FedEx performance
rating of these six on indoor courts (a swing that will impact qualification) and found out
that Murray, Berdych and Raonic have better indoor court career performance record
than the other three.

Of the remaining 6 bigger events, 3 are outdoors: Beijing, Tokyo and Shanghai. So 50% will be indoors. You cannot go by those stats only.

That is true 50% outdoor hard and 50% indoor hard, the rest of the season. But,
I looked up indoor performance as that could provide some extra insight. The regular
hard court we more or less know how folks will do and most often goes by regular
rankings.

Anyway, If they leave the decision to me, I will take Kei, Murray and Dimi.

I can live without Ferrer (he is getting senile), Milos (need i say why) and
Berdych (he is ok, but would like some change) at the WTF this year.

 

[Kieran]

Berdych seems to be stickied into a top ten ranking, without ever winning anything, or making finals or semis in majors.

Okay, an exaggeration, but you know what I mean...