Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[GameSetAndMath]

If Andy wins Valencia, he will reach #5 Spot in the race rankings. That would be one
hell of a upward movement.

 

[isabelle]

Nadal Cilic and Gulbis withdrew from Bercy....

 

[Front242]

Nadal Cilic and Gulbis withdrew from Bercy....

Nadal for "personal reasons" but we all know that Ernie is holding a mad party for them back in Latvia.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Nadal Cilic and Gulbis withdrew from Bercy....

Nadal for "personal reasons" but we all know that Ernie is holding a mad party for them back in Latvia.

Nadal is having surgery on November the 3rd so perhaps time to put this particular agenda to rest.

 

[Front242]

Nadal Cilic and Gulbis withdrew from Bercy....

Nadal for "personal reasons" but we all know that Ernie is holding a mad party for them back in Latvia.

Nadal is having surgery on November the 3rd so perhaps time to put this particular agenda to rest.

That leaves plenty of time to party before then.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nadal Cilic and Gulbis withdrew from Bercy....

Nadal for "personal reasons" but we all know that Ernie is holding a mad party for them back in Latvia.

Nadal is having surgery on November the 3rd so perhaps time to put this particular agenda to rest.

It was in the published news that Nadal withdrew for "personal reasons" and so I don't see a
need for complaining about any agenda here. If you want a link, I can provide one.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Nadal Cilic and Gulbis withdrew from Bercy....

Nadal for "personal reasons" but we all know that Ernie is holding a mad party for them back in Latvia.

Nadal is having surgery on November the 3rd so perhaps time to put this particular agenda to rest.

It was in the published news that Nadal withdrew for "personal reasons" and so I don't see a
need for complaining about any agenda here. If you want a link, I can provide one.

I know it was. And then it was published he's having surgery. My "agenda" comment goes back to my 6-page debate with Front. If you want a link to that, I can provide one.

 

[Front242]

Nadal for "personal reasons" but we all know that Ernie is holding a mad party for them back in Latvia.

Nadal is having surgery on November the 3rd so perhaps time to put this particular agenda to rest.

It was in the published news that Nadal withdrew for "personal reasons" and so I don't see a
need for complaining about any agenda here. If you want a link, I can provide one.

I know it was. And then it was published he's having surgery. My "agenda" comment goes back to my 6-page debate with Front. If you want a link to that, I can provide one.

What agenda exactly? There's no agenda. We all know he's having surgery for appendicitis and the "personal reasons" was just some bs from the PR team and they later admitted he was having the surgery and my comment about a party with Ernie was clearly not serious!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK, here is "personal reasons" demystified. Rafa did not want it to be know publicly that
he is out of action for the season until he exits the Basel tourney. This is basically to gain
competitive advantage over his opponents in Basel. I don't have a problem with it.
If other players know, he is out for the rest of the season, they may get added
confidence and bring it on. Even though suffering from appendicitis, Rafa obviously
wanted to progress as far as he could in Basel

Unfortunately, the draw in Bercy was made before Nadal lost. Nadal wanted to inform them
before the draw is made that he will not be playing in Bercy as a courtesy to the tournament
organizer (as otherwise it would mess up the draw and their preparation). So, he probably
requested them not to reveal the impending surgery and the end of his season, to protect
his interests as he was still playing in Basel.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I posted this in Bercy thread; cross posting it here too.

1. Nishikori is just 175 points below the current cut off for the WTF. Reaching QF pays 180 in Bercy
and so If Nishikori reaches QF at Bercy, he is guaranteed of a place in WTF. In order to reach
there, all he needs to do is win a couple of matches. But, it may not be as easy as it sounds
considering he is coming after a long break and has decent opponents. His first one is against
Robredo/Popsicle and the second one is probably against Tsonga.

2. Assuming Murray wins Valencia, he will also be in the same boat as Nishikori and would
need to reach QF at Bercy to guarantee a spot. In order to do so, he too would need to win
couple of matches. His first one is against Benneteau/Yen-Hsun Lu and the second one is
probably against Grigor.

3. The above two remarks should not be construed as me saying they will not qualify otherwise.
The remark just means that if they can win back-to-back matches they secure a spot
independent of what the other contenders may or may not be doing. If they fail to
win back to back matches, they may still qualify depending on what other contenders do.

4. As for others, Berdych can qualify if he reaches SF. Ferrer and Milos can qualify if they reach F.
Grigor can qualify if he lifts the trophy. Again, it may not be necessary for them
to perform at the specified level in order to qualify.

 

[Kieran]

Ferrer has reached the last two finals, so he can take heart from that. But he's not the man this year, that he was the last two...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is the current situation (after the Basel/Valencia ATP 500 tourneys over) on race for the six contenders.
This will be released officially tomorrow, Monday the 27th of October. We have just one tourney to go.The points accumulated so far in the first column and the difference in points from the guy ahead in the second column.

1. Andy Murray GBR 4305
2. Kei Nishikori JPN 4275 ----------- 30
3. Tomas Berdych CZE 4115 ------ 160
4. David Ferrer ESP 3875 ---------- 240
5. Milos Raonic CAN 3850 ----------- 25
6. Grigor Dimitrov BUL 3565 ------ 285

We have four slots open due to Rafa's withdrawal. At this time, it looks like Andy and
Kei are "shoe in" and also Grigor looks likes "shoe out" (new phrase coined).

So, that means two of the three (Bird, Ferru and Milos) will qualify and one will be
missing the bus. This will be the difficult call to make, but I predict and wish that it be Milos.

If this happens, interestingly the two Wimbledon semifinalists will be the ones who
get left out and all others will take the train to London.

 

[El Dude]

Here's another way to depict it. If you figure that right now Ferrer is the cut-off, his point total represents the baseline. Here are the points + or - from that baseline.

+430 Murray
+400 Nishikori
+240 Berdych
0 Ferrer
-25 Raonic
-310 Dimitrov

I figure that in order for Dimitrov to make it, he'll need to either be the runner-up at Paris and Ferrer and Raonic go out early, or win Paris. In order for Murray or Nishikori, and probably even Berdych, NOT to make it, they'll need to go out really early in Paris and the others do very well.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

It's pretty much a case of Ferrer v Raonic for me and Raonic has the misfortune of being drawn in a Paris quarter with red hot Roger, so if David can get to quarter finals, that should be enough to stave off Milos

Sent from my KFTHWI using Tapatalk

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is an article from USA today that gives a plausible road map to Roger finishing YE #1.

Part I of the four part scheme worked out. Now, there are three more acts to this drama.

 

[El Dude]

Its crazy to think that Roger could take the #1 at the Davis Cup.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is an article from USA today that gives a plausible road map to Roger finishing YE #1.

Part I of the four part scheme worked out. Now, there are three more acts to this drama.

By the way the arithmetic in this article forgets to take into account that 150 points of Novak will fall off after the DC finals. Coincidentally, that is a detail and does not affect when Roger becomes
#1 even if the scenario given by the author plays out.

 

[tented]

From ATP: "Mad Dash For London Singles, Doubles Spots"

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Breaking News: Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori Qualify for WTF

According to live tennis race rankings page , Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori have been declared as qualified. They must have run calculations based upon possible collisions between contenders and the results going either way. So far, none of us here bothered to do that kind of calculations.

So, 6 of the 8 spot are now taken.

We are now down to 2 spots with 4 contenders.

Also, the cut off has come down to 4270 now. This means Berdych can qualify by winning
just a couple of matches at Bercy (which will take him to QF and would give him 180 points).
That looks like a virtual certainity.

It also looks like Grigor won't make it as he really needs to win the title here.

So, the real race is for the last open spot and it is between Milos and Ferrer.
There is only 25 points difference between then with Ferrer on lead. So, if
Ferrer can perform as well as Milos in Bercy, Ferrer will get in. That seems
highly likely considering the draw at Bercy, where Milos is projected to meet Fed in QF.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This is crazy. Last night they had Andy and Kei as qualified in live rankings page and this
morning they went back on it. It clearly looks like they don't know what they are doing. uzzled

Please Ignore the above post.