Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[tented]

According to the ATP:

- Andy Murray: Guaranteed berth with Paris QF

- Kei Nishikori: Guaranteed berth with Paris SF

- Tomas Berdych: Guaranteed berth with Paris SF

- David Ferrer: Guaranteed berth with Paris F

- Milos Raonic: Guaranteed berth with Paris title

- Grigor Dimitrov: No chance unless he reaches Paris SF

 

[El Dude]

I believe Grigor is guaranteed if he wins Paris.

 

[tented]

I believe Grigor is guaranteed if he wins Paris.

Yes, that's how the ATP described it until a few days ago, when it was changed to the current phrasing.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With Berdych's win today, Marin Cilic has fallen to position #8 in the race today.
Recall that he is not playing Bercy. If he falls two more spots, he would be truly utilizing
his inside route.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Interesting situation in doubles qualification. There are two GS winners outside of top 7.
They are Kubot and Lindestedt who won AO and Sock and Popsicle who won Wimby. Only
one of them can get in using inside route.

Kubot and Lindestedt are in position 9 and Jack and Popsicle are in position 10.

Today Jack Sock and Popsicle lost to Stan and Paes. So, they cannot increase
their race points anymore and they are stuck at 10. So, the inside route slot
goes to Kubot and Lindestedt and they were declared as qualified today.

Nonetheless, they (Sock and Popsicle) can qualify if Kubot and Lindestedt keep winning and get into top 7. If they can get into top 7, Kubot and Lindestedt will get a direct entry and so
the inside route slot will get released for Sock and Popsicle.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Kubot and Lindestedt lost their doubles match today and so they cannot increase their
point count anymore. While they have qualified via inside route, they cannot change the
status of their qualification from inside route to regular route any more.

This is bad news for Jack Sock and Vasek Popsicle as they cannot get into WTF.
They are stuck at position 10. Even though, they won Wimbledon they cannot use
the inside route, as only one pair is allowed to use the inside route. Kubot and
Lindestedt, the AO winners, who are at position 9 have used it.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Interesting little instance there GSM. For me it would just be easier if they said all slam winners qualify automatically, or none at all. This middle ground they've got makes it needlessly complicated to me.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Interesting little instance there GSM. For me it would just be easier if they said all slam winners qualify automatically, or none at all. This middle ground they've got makes it needlessly complicated to me.

The reason the way it is (if I could call that a reason) is that the rules were born out of a
compromise between ITF and ATP when they merged their two separate year end events
that was cutting into each other's market share for players and fans.

I would rather live with confusing rules, than to have two separate end of year events
that draws from the same group of players. That is no fun.

If it were up to me, I would automatically include all the four GS winners (they need not
be distinct) and then pick as many players as needed from the top of the rankings to form
a eight player field for the WTF.

Also, I think it would be a good idea to get rid of the semifinal matches in WTF and
simply pit the winners of the two groups against each other directly in a final. This would
eliminate all the scheming and tanking possible in the current format.

 

[El Dude]

So Andy Murray's in and Grigor Dimitrov is out, yes?

That leaves four spots for:
4355 Nishikori
4285 Berdych
4150 Cilic
4045 Ferrer
3930 Raonic (4020 if he beats Bautista today)

So it seems like it is coming down to Daveed and Milosh - whoever makes it further gets in.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As Ferrer is leading, he does not have to make it further than Milos, he only needs to match Milos.
It is 99% Ferrer at this time.

 

[El Dude]

Poor Milosh. After Bautista Agut, he'll most likely have to face Federer. If he gets by Roger he'll have Berdych or Anderson ,both of whom he can beat. Then he'll make the final.

As for Daveed, he's got the winner of Tsonga-Nishikori coming up. But even if he loses, if Milosh also loses to Roger than Ferrer gets in. After Tsonga-Nishikori he'll have to face Murray or Djokovic (or maybe Monfils, but really...).

While I want Roger to win, it would be a blast to see Ferrer and Raonic battle it out in the final for Paris. Of course at that point they'd both be ahead of Cilic, and possibly Berdych and Nishikori, so it would be a moot point.

 

[tented]

So Andy Murray's in and Grigor Dimitrov is out, yes?

That leaves four spots for:
4355 Nishikori
4285 Berdych
4150 Cilic
4045 Ferrer
3930 Raonic (4020 if he beats Bautista today)

So it seems like it is coming down to Daveed and Milosh - whoever makes it further gets in.

Cilic has already qualified, so it's really down to three spots.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Poor Milosh. After Bautista Agut, he'll most likely have to face Federer. If he gets by Roger he'll have Berdych or Anderson ,both of whom he can beat. Then he'll make the final.

As for Daveed, he's got the winner of Tsonga-Nishikori coming up. But even if he loses, if Milosh also loses to Roger than Ferrer gets in. After Tsonga-Nishikori he'll have to face Murray or Djokovic (or maybe Monfils, but really...).

While I want Roger to win, it would be a blast to see Ferrer and Raonic battle it out in the final for Paris. Of course at that point they'd both be ahead of Cilic, and possibly Berdych and Nishikori, so it would be a moot point.

Please visit the nearest psychiatrist as soon as possible.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The two Wimbledon semifinalists stayed longer in London and have seen everything there.
It is only fitting that other people get to visit London this time.

 

[El Dude]

How has Cilic qualified but not Kei or Berd? Does he get extra props for winning a Slam?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

How has Cilic qualified but not Kei or Berd? Does he get extra props for winning a Slam?

Welcome aboard, Dude.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Poor Milosh. After Bautista Agut, he'll most likely have to face Federer. If he gets by Roger he'll have Berdych or Anderson ,both of whom he can beat. Then he'll make the final.

As for Daveed, he's got the winner of Tsonga-Nishikori coming up. But even if he loses, if Milosh also loses to Roger than Ferrer gets in. After Tsonga-Nishikori he'll have to face Murray or Djokovic (or maybe Monfils, but really...).

While I want Roger to win, it would be a blast to see Ferrer and Raonic battle it out in the final for Paris. Of course at that point they'd both be ahead of Cilic, and possibly Berdych and Nishikori, so it would be a moot point.

Please visit the nearest psychiatrist as soon as possible.

The commentator announced that the ONLY way Nishikori cannot qualify is if your
nightmare scenario of Ferrer and Raonic facing each other in finals happens.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Update at 5:00 p.m. on Oct. 30th.

Berdych qualifies if he wins his next match against Anderson (11-0)

Kei qualifies if he wins his next match against Ferrer (4-3).

Ferrer qualifies if he performs at an equal or better level than Milos.

Milos qualifies if he can go one level further than Ferrer.

This does not tell the whole story, as there are other weird situations.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If Fed wins the Paris title, Federer will replace Djokovic at No. 1 in both the Emirates ATP Rankings and Emirates ATP Race To London unless the Serb reaches the final.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

According to SI.com, if Raonic loses to Federer tomorrow, the race is over; Kei, Berdych and Ferrer qualify instantly independent of whether they win or lose their own matches.

- Nishikori will become the first Asian-born player to qualify for the World Tour Finals if he makes the semifinals. He defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in three sets on Thursday and plays Ferrer in the quarterfinals. Having made the quarterfinals, Nishikori will qualify unless Raonic beats Ferrer in the final.

- Berdych will qualify for his fifth straight World Tour Finals on Friday if he beats Kevin Anderson, who upset Wawrinka 6-7 (2), 7-5, 7-6 (3), to make the semifinals. Berdych has to like his chances. He's 11-0 against Anderson. Should he lose that match, Berdych will still qualify unless Raonic beats Ferrer in the final.

- Ferrer currently sits in the final qualifying position at No. 9. He will qualify if he makes the final or so long as Raonic does not go one round better.