Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[Kieran]

Here is an article from USA today that gives a plausible road map to Roger finishing YE #1.

How many other players have to die, get injured, fall asleep? I'm not reading it if it's scary... :nono

 

[Kieran]

Rafa is apparently going to withdraw from London, so this will give a free slot to somebody - and ensure Federer goes into next year at #2, lowest.

Brutal season for Rafa... :nono

EDIT: Funny enough, I'll be in London on the 10th and 11th and was looking at tickets for this, but I'm glad I didn't bite... :nono

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Rafa is apparently going to withdraw from London, so this will give a free slot to somebody - and ensure Federer goes into next year at #2, lowest.

Brutal season for Rafa... :nono

EDIT: Funny enough, I'll be in London on the 10th and 11th and was looking at tickets for this, but I'm glad I didn't bite... :nono

Brutal alright, but I am not understanding why he is playing Basel and Paris...Why not pull the plug now, have the surgery, have a lot of time to get better and prep for the next season. Why is playing Basel and Paris so important? Fees...?

 

[Kieran]

Rafa is apparently going to withdraw from London, so this will give a free slot to somebody - and ensure Federer goes into next year at #2, lowest.

Brutal season for Rafa... :nono

EDIT: Funny enough, I'll be in London on the 10th and 11th and was looking at tickets for this, but I'm glad I didn't bite... :nono

Brutal alright, but I am not understanding why he is playing Basel and Paris...Why not pull the plug now, have the surgery, have a lot of time to get better and prep for the next season. Why is playing Basel and Paris so important? Fees...?

No, I suspect he's playing them because he can play them, and then have surgery and still be 100% for the start of the season. If he has surgery now, and skips them, he has no matches at all before the beginning of the season, but his normal downtime will be spent recuperating - with added time from skipping the WTF...

 

[brokenshoelace]

That's virtually yet another half season for Rafa.

 

[Kieran]

That's virtually yet another half season for Rafa.

Yep. And incredibly, given the year he's had, mathematically he could still finish second...

 

[tented]

That's virtually yet another half season for Rafa.

Yep. And incredibly, given the year he's had, mathematically he could still finish second...

I doubt that's going to happen, but it is impressive he's still ranked as high as he is considering how relatively little he has played.

 

[Front242]

People seem to be forgetting Nadal skipped the 2nd half of 2012 so therefore he gained a ton of points in 2013 and more so obviously from winning the whole USO series. Same thing with Sharapova over in the WTA thread, people are wondering how she managed to get back to number 2 so soon. It's obvious, she was out for a good while just like Nadal so it resulted in tons of points gained the following year. Nadal had a huge points cushion from winning so much last year so it's no surprise his ranking is still so high even without being able to defend so many last few months.

 

[tented]

People seem to be forgetting Nadal skipped the 2nd half of 2012 so therefore he gained a ton of points in 2013 and more so obviously from winning the whole USO series. Same thing with Sharapova over in the WTA thread, people are wondering how she managed to get back to number 2 so soon. It's obvious, she was out for a good while just like Nadal so it resulted in tons of points gained the following year. Nadal had a huge points cushion from winning so much last year so it's no surprise his ranking is still so high even without being able to defend so many last few months.

What are you talking about? The USO series is over. The points weren't defended. They're gone. His current ranking isn't being propped up by "a ton of points" from 2013.

Look at his rankings breakdown:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=rb

 

[Front242]

People seem to be forgetting Nadal skipped the 2nd half of 2012 so therefore he gained a ton of points in 2013 and more so obviously from winning the whole USO series. Same thing with Sharapova over in the WTA thread, people are wondering how she managed to get back to number 2 so soon. It's obvious, she was out for a good while just like Nadal so it resulted in tons of points gained the following year. Nadal had a huge points cushion from winning so much last year so it's no surprise his ranking is still so high even without being able to defend so many last few months.

What are you talking about? The USO series is over. The points weren't defended. They're gone. His current ranking isn't being propped up by "a ton of points" from 2013.

Look at his rankings breakdown:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=rb

Talking the start of the year 'cos he couldn't play the AO '13 so all points gained this year (1200) were a net gain. Same with Doha. That's 1450 points both together.

 

[tented]

People seem to be forgetting Nadal skipped the 2nd half of 2012 so therefore he gained a ton of points in 2013 and more so obviously from winning the whole USO series. Same thing with Sharapova over in the WTA thread, people are wondering how she managed to get back to number 2 so soon. It's obvious, she was out for a good while just like Nadal so it resulted in tons of points gained the following year. Nadal had a huge points cushion from winning so much last year so it's no surprise his ranking is still so high even without being able to defend so many last few months.

What are you talking about? The USO series is over. The points weren't defended. They're gone. His current ranking isn't being propped up by "a ton of points" from 2013.

Look at his rankings breakdown:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=rb

Talking the start of the year 'cos he couldn't play the AO '13 so all points gained this year (1200) were a net gain. Same with Doha. That's 1450 points both together.

So now it's all about the AO? What happened to your argument about people forgetting the second half of 2012, and Rafa winning the 2013 USO series? Because that's what your original post was all about.

 

[Front242]

People seem to be forgetting Nadal skipped the 2nd half of 2012 so therefore he gained a ton of points in 2013 and more so obviously from winning the whole USO series. Same thing with Sharapova over in the WTA thread, people are wondering how she managed to get back to number 2 so soon. It's obvious, she was out for a good while just like Nadal so it resulted in tons of points gained the following year. Nadal had a huge points cushion from winning so much last year so it's no surprise his ranking is still so high even without being able to defend so many last few months.

What are you talking about? The USO series is over. The points weren't defended. They're gone. His current ranking isn't being propped up by "a ton of points" from 2013.

Look at his rankings breakdown:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx?t=rb

Talking the start of the year 'cos he couldn't play the AO '13 so all points gained this year (1200) were a net gain. Same with Doha. That's 1450 points both together.

So now it's all about the AO? What happened to your argument about people forgetting the second half of 2012, and Rafa winning the 2013 USO series? Because that's what your original post was all about.

It's late, I'm braindead right now :suzzled The AO is all that counts.

 

[Front242]

^ But that's still 1200 points which is a fair few.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa is apparently going to withdraw from London, so this will give a free slot to somebody - and ensure Federer goes into next year at #2, lowest.

Brutal season for Rafa... :nono

EDIT: Funny enough, I'll be in London on the 10th and 11th and was looking at tickets for this, but I'm glad I didn't bite... :nono

I am sure that all the contenders would be relieved to learn of the possibility of one extra
slot opening.

Frankly, I don't see the point in playing Basel and Paris, if he has apriori decided not
to play WTF.

The link you provided now has a disclaimer. I don't know whether it had at the time
you posted.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

That's virtually yet another half season for Rafa.

Yep. And incredibly, given the year he's had, mathematically he could still finish second...

The chances of him finishing second is very very small given that he is trailing in
Race for several weeks now. Rafa is now 1275 points behind Roger in race. In order
to finish number 2, he needs to outperform Roger by 1275 points in the remaining
three events put together (Basel, Paris and London) and for all practical purposes
this is impossible (yes mathematically he could though).

Actually speaking, once he realizes that there is not much chance in finishing at
#2, I do not see much point in him toiling at this time of the season where he has not
been historically successful and also in his current health conditions.

If there is a reasonable chance of finishing at #2, it might be worth trying
despite the appendicitis issue as it would position him well for AO.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa is apparently going to withdraw from London, so this will give a free slot to somebody - and ensure Federer goes into next year at #2, lowest.

Brutal season for Rafa... :nono

EDIT: Funny enough, I'll be in London on the 10th and 11th and was looking at tickets for this, but I'm glad I didn't bite... :nono

I am sure that all the contenders would be relieved to learn of the possibility of one extra
slot opening.

Frankly, I don't see the point in playing Basel and Paris, if he has apriori decided not
to play WTF.

The link you provided now has a disclaimer. I don't know whether it had at the time
you posted.

No, the update is new. I agree with you though - if he's to have an operation, call time now and start his recovery sooner. I can only suspect that having played so little since Wimbledon, he wants to play as much as he can, to have a better feel for things in January...

 

[brokenshoelace]

People seem to be forgetting Nadal skipped the 2nd half of 2012 so therefore he gained a ton of points in 2013 and more so obviously from winning the whole USO series. Same thing with Sharapova over in the WTA thread, people are wondering how she managed to get back to number 2 so soon. It's obvious, she was out for a good while just like Nadal so it resulted in tons of points gained the following year. Nadal had a huge points cushion from winning so much last year so it's no surprise his ranking is still so high even without being able to defend so many last few months.

This makes no sense. He won a ton of points in 2013 after losing a ton of points in 2012. They cancel each other out. Think about it. People still don't understand how rankings work.

 

[Front242]

People seem to be forgetting Nadal skipped the 2nd half of 2012 so therefore he gained a ton of points in 2013 and more so obviously from winning the whole USO series. Same thing with Sharapova over in the WTA thread, people are wondering how she managed to get back to number 2 so soon. It's obvious, she was out for a good while just like Nadal so it resulted in tons of points gained the following year. Nadal had a huge points cushion from winning so much last year so it's no surprise his ranking is still so high even without being able to defend so many last few months.

This makes no sense. He won a ton of points in 2013 after losing a ton of points in 2012. They cancel each other out. Think about it. People still don't understand how rankings work.

Read my further post. I typed it late after a long day. Only the AO '14 points count as a net gain but still 1200 is a decent cushion all the same.

 

[Mile]

Djoker confirmed Paris in his Twitter account.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nishikori has withdrawn from Valencia. I don't know the official reason, but presumably
because of the leg pain and the lower back pain that he was complaining about in Japan.
The glass body is crumbling.

With Nishikori not playing both the 250 and 500 indoor, now his chances are no longer
iron clad. So, I am take him out of the "shoe in" list which is currently empty.

Four qualified and Cilic has inside route. 5 spots gone and 3 left.

We are back to the situation of 3 out of 6 contenders (Kei, Milos, Berdych, Ferrer, Murray and Grigor). It could become 4 out of 6 contenders if Rafa drops out.