Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[Bounce It !!]

Nishikori has withdrawn from Valencia. I don't know the official reason, but presumably
because of the leg pain and the lower back pain that he was complaining about in Japan.
The glass body is crumbling.

With Nishikori not playing both the 250 and 500 indoor, now his chances are no longer
iron clad. So, I am take him out of the "shoe in" list which is currently empty.

Four qualified and Cilic has inside route. 5 spots gone and 3 left.

We are back to the situation of 3 out of 6 contenders (Kei, Milos, Berdych, Ferrer, Murray and Grigor). It could become 4 out of 6 contenders if Rafa drops out.

Looking at Kei's Ranking Breakdown, Valencia would have been helpful to replace the 90 points he has to use from Halle. He has to go deep at Bercy to hold his place.

For 2014, Kei has 3 Mandatory 1000 0 pointers, 10pts at Shanghai, 45pts at IW and 10 pts from RG. Had he been healthy this year he would have knocked both David and Stan down a couple pegs. :wow:

The next couple of weeks should be verrrrry interrrrrrresting.

Cilic's Ranking Breakdown ranking breakdown actually raises some interesting issues, as both Monte Carlo and Queens are listed as non-countable, (I wouldn't want to count them anyway pretty low points)and he only has 2 Mandatory 500 tourneys for 2014.

But then, seems he was outside the top 30 in January 2014, so he doesn't have the same mandatory tourney count requirements as the other guys, so he gets to count 3 250 tourneys... Hmmmm, good thing for him he's in regardless of hows he does. Might be smart to take a break next week, and then play Bercy.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There is some confusion over Nishikori's status. Some reports say he is not playing in
Valencia. But, there are also indications that he is playing in Valencia. So, I am not any sure
any more as to what is up with him. The tournament site still lists his name. Hope he is
well and plays there.

However, it is confirmed that Cilic (who was scheduled to play) has withdrawn from
Valencia. But, this will not affect his qualification as he has inside route. In fact, it is
expected that ATP will "officially announce" this weekend that Cilic has been given a
spot in WTF.

Source for Cilic withdrawal is here . Fortunately, it appears that he is not injured and
is skipping it for personal reasons.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

According to this article it appears that both Nishikori and Cilic have
withdrawn from Valencia.

So, Valencia will have three contenders in it: Ferrer, Murray and Birdman.

Basel will have two contenders in it: Grigor and Raonic.

The only contender that will be MIA next week is Kei. I hope he can keep it
together, play good in Bercy and make it to WTF though.

 

[Bounce It !!]

According to this article it appears that both Nishikori and Cilic have
withdrawn from Valencia.

So, Valencia will have three contenders in it: Ferrer, Murray and Birdman.

Basel will have two contenders in it: Grigor and Raonic.

The only contender that will be MIA next week is Kei. I hope he can keep it
together, play good in Bercy and make it to WTF though.

Thanks for posting the info. It makes sense that Cilic would get some rest, and practice for London. I think he will need it. As to the others, whoever can go deep next week and Bercy should make it. Grigor, as the low man, may need SF 2x

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Some Important Updates.

1. ATP officially announces that Marin Cilic has qualified for the WTF . Congrats! :clap

2. With his victory over Troiki, Murray is now in postion #8 in the race. This means if the field
were to be decided today, he will be in it. He just has to fend off the three folks below him
for couple of more weeks. However, the point difference continue to be very puny.

3. The cutoff has come down to 4545. This would mean that in order to qualify for the WTF,
Kei Nishikori (who did not play in any of the indoor 250s and not playing in any of the
indoor 500s) need to reach at least a SF in Bercy. However, the cut off will probably
come down after next week's toruneys are over to a point that will allow Kei to
qualify if he could reach QF.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The final cut off for WTF in 2013 was 3330 points.

I think this year's cut off will definitely be higher and probably closer to 4000 points.
But, Stan will make the cut off is not in any doubt, both directly and indirectly.

Yeah, I would bet around 3500-3800 points, not higher than that.

I am on the mark. There are already 7 players with 4000 or more points in the race.

 

[isabelle]

Cilic has qualified that's why he pulled out of Valencia ???

 

[Front242]

Cilic has qualified that's why he pulled out of Valencia ???

Presume so. If he's qualified already there's no point overplaying and better to be fresh. The others are only playing these mickey mouse events out of necessity right now but it could well have a negative impact on their fitness in the WTF if they manage to qualify.

 

[El Dude]

So Andy won today, which puts him up to #8 in the Race to London rankings and drops Milos back.

5. Nishikori 4265
6. Cilic 4150
7. Berdych 4105
8. Murray 3885
9. Ferrer 3775
10. Raonic 3750
11. Dimitrov 3555

Let's say Nishikori, Cilic, and Berdych are in. That leaves either one or two slots for four players, depending upon if Rafa plays. Given the way that Andy is playing, he seems to be likely. Then it comes down to one or two of Ferrer, Raonic, Dimitrov.

As a Dimitrov fan, I hope he doesn't make it. Yes, I said that. I think he needs the extra kick in the ass. I'm guessing Raonic makes it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is the race update after all the three itsy-bitsy 250 indoor tourneys have concluded. This will be released officially tomorrow, Monday, the 20th of October. The following six contenders are vying for the remaining three open spots. Their race points are given below. Also noted is the difference of their points from that of the player immediately above him in the race. There is a total of 710 points separating the top contender from the bottom contender (which is much higher than the 540 we had at the end of last week).

1. Kei Nishikori JPN 4265
2. Tomas Berdych CZE 4105 ----- 160
3. Andy Murray GBR 3885 -------- 220
4. David Ferrer ESP 3775 --------- 110
5. Milos Raonic CAN 3750 ---------- 25
6. Grigor Dimitrov BUL 3555 ----- 195

Next week all are in action except Kei. Berdych, Murray and Ferrer are playing at Valencia
and Raonic and Dimitrov are playing in Basel.

It is no longer safe to project Kei due to his injury issues. He needs to reach SF at
Bercy to qualify, assuming he plays there. If he does not play there, his case is probably closed.

However, it looks like Grigor is very less likely to make it; he is at the bottom right now
and has a bad draw in Basel facing Roger at QF stage itself. On the other hand Milos appears
to have a reasonable path to finals in Basel and so may move up considerably by the end of next week.

Murray are Ferrer are scheduled for another duel in the SF at Valencia. If it
goes the other way (Ferrer wins), their difference will come down to a miniscule 20.
If Murray wins it, he will get a show down with Berdych in the finals (as he seems to have
a fairly easy path to finals in Valencia and so he appears tobe a shoe in) and the
winner of that will be virtually guaranteed a spot in WTF.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Cilic has qualified that's why he pulled out of Valencia ???

Presume so. If he's qualified already there's no point overplaying and better to be fresh. The others are only playing these mickey mouse events out of necessity right now but it could well have a negative impact on their fitness in the WTF if they manage to qualify.

This is exactly the reason that there must be a week off between Bercy and WTF.
This year they brought it back on. They always had it before, but the last three years
or so they tried to remove that blank week in quest for reducing the length of the
calendar.

If there is no week off, the contenders who barely qualified by playing several
weeks in a row would not even be able to justify being there and the quality of
a premier event such as WTF would be spoilt. Kudos to ATP for bringing the blank
week back again.

Any way, it affects only 8 players. All other players have two weeks longer
vacation than these eight. These eight get pretty good money to spend two
more weeks playing. Remember that this is not just the money they earn at
the WTF and they also get the so called "top player" money from a pool.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As people watch the race, I would like to bring one more point up. As many of these
players have played more tournaments than needed, all the points they get next week
will not get added to their race total directly.

1. Ferrer - points obtained in Valencia will replace 150, if better.
2. Berdych - points obtained in Valencia will replace 155, if better.
3. Murray - points obtained in Valencia will be directly added.
4. Grigor - points obtained in Basel will replace 90, if better.
5. Milos - points obtained in Basel will replace 15, if better.

So, for example if Grigor loses to Fed in QF at Basel, he would earn 90 points
in Basel, but his race total will STAY exactly the same. Grigor is already at the
bottom of the list and in view of this, he is likely to remain at the bottom of the
list after next week also and his prospects of qualifying look very bleak.

On the other hand Murray has advantage over others as whatever he
obtains in Valencia will be directly added to his race points (as they will
replace a 0 he got for skipping Basel last year).

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

MIlos picked a bad time to go cold/sick/injured whatever...

 

[Kieran]

I wonder what's the odds on Murray actually winning the WTF. It's not beyond the realms. Looking at all recent lists above, Nishi, Andy and Berdy look most likely, and if Nishi isn't fit, Ferrer or Milos might pack a suitcase to go.

And if Rafa isn't fit, then Grigor will be the only one left out. And I'm kinda with The Dude on him. He's not only disappointed me since Wimbledon - he's irritated me... :nono

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If Rafa is not playing WTF and Kei throws in the towel as well, due to injuries, the race is over
for all practical purposes. All contenders go to London except for Maria's Boy Toy.

 

[herios]

MIlos picked a bad time to go cold/sick/injured whatever...

Sick. I agree that it is rather disappointing, but one cannot pick when to get a flu. It just hits you and that is it.
However between 2 more events with more points on the table, he can make up some fround, of course he will be fit.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I wonder what's the odds on Murray actually winning the WTF. It's not beyond the realms.

Did you mean to say making it to the WTF or winning WTF.

Here are the odds for different players to win the WTF. Murray has the
third best chance and he is tied with Rafa on that.

Novak Djokovic 11/8
Roger Federer 5/2
Andy Murray 11/2
Rafael Nadal 11/2
Marin Cilic 11

 

[masterclass]

As people watch the race, I would like to bring one more point up. As many of these
players have played more tournaments than needed, all the points they get next week
will not get added to their race total directly.

1. Ferrer - points obtained in Valencia will replace 150, if better.
2. Berdych - points obtained in Valencia will replace 155, if better.
3. Murray - points obtained in Valencia will be directly added.
4. Grigor - points obtained in Basel will replace 90, if better.
5. Milos - points obtained in Basel will replace 15, if better.

So, for example if Grigor loses to Fed in QF at Basel, he would earn 90 points
in Basel, but his race total will STAY exactly the same. Grigor is already at the
bottom of the list and in view of this, he is likely to remain at the bottom of the
list after next week also and his prospects of qualifying look very bleak.

On the other hand Murray has advantage over others as whatever he
obtains in Valencia will be directly added to his race points (as they will
replace a 0 he got for skipping Basel last year).

Hmm, I don't think this is true about Murray or Raonic. You can only count 4 GS, 8 Mandatory masters, and the best 6 500's and 250's. Murray already has his 6.
29.09.2014 Beijing S 180
24.02.2014 Acapulco S 180
12.09.2014 Davis Cup - 145
10.02.2014 Rotterdam Q 90
13.10.2014 Vienna W 250
22.09.2014 Shenzhen W 250

He'll start counting Valencia* if he gets past Rotterdam. So only if he makes the SF in Valencia, then Valencia* will be added to the list and Rotterdam will go into the uncountable section. He'll have a net gain of 90 for SF, 210 for final, and 410 for win, if he makes it that far.

I believe Raonic is the only one who has direct addition now of the player's fighting for the remaining slots, since he only has 5 500's and 250's, and even in those he has a 0 pointer in Moscow.

* edited, erroneously said Basel

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You are right that Murray's points obtained in Valencia will replace the 90 pointer
he got in Rotterdam, if it is better than 90.

Note that he is playing in Valencia this year and not in Basel as you are saying in
your post. It is not a big deal, just correcting an obvious silly error.

Finally, I don't understand why ATP shows his last year's 0 points from Basel
as a countable tournament. It should be moved to the non-countable tournament
section. If it shows as 0 as a penalty to Murray (as he signed up last year, but
did not play in Basel), then the 250 that he got in Vienna must go to the
non-countable tournament section. Either way, the way they are depicting
Murray's race points does not make sense, at least to me.

 

[masterclass]

Note that he is playing in Valencia this year and not in Basel as you are saying in
your post. It is not a big deal, just correcting an obvious silly error.

Yeah, it was late at night... sorry about that. Got it wrong in 2 of 3 places. haha I edited my post. Thanks

Finally, I don't understand why ATP shows his last year's 0 points from Basel
as a countable tournament. It should be moved to the non-countable tournament
section. If it shows as 0 as a penalty to Murray (as he signed up last year, but
did not play in Basel), then the 250 that he got in Vienna must go to the
non-countable tournament section. Either way, the way they are depicting
Murray's race points does not make sense, at least to me.

I don't get why 2013 Basel 0 pointer or 2013 Paris 0 pointers are showing up at all for the race either. They both occurred in 2013. Bug, or maybe just placeholders. Don't know. They show up in the regular 52 week rankings as they should.

But it's a good bet they won't be in either list after 2014 Valencia and 2014 Paris.

Respectfully,
masterclass