Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[GameSetAndMath]

According to tennisworldusa.org, Youngderer could modify his fall's schedule. His priorities are Masters ans DC's final. I guess he could skip Shanghai ? Or Basel ? Or Bercy ? He'll probably announce it soon

Here is my unsolicited suggestion to Fed. Have the following three as the goals for
the rest of 2014 and in that priority order

1. Attain YE#1, if it appears within reach.
2. Win WTF.
3. Win DC.

In order to do so, I would recommend that Fed throw in Tokyo to his schedule.
Most big name players have signed up for Beijing and Tokyo field is relatively light
(despite being quite good). What matters is getting ranking points in an easy way.
Follow up Tokyo with Shanghai and then play in Basel also.

Now, reassess the situation. The ranking points picture should be clear
by this time. Also, what if any events Novak misses will be clear. Whether Rafa
is in action and if so how good he is also will be clear. Now, estimate whether
YE #1 is a practical goal. It should be realistically possible and not just
mathematically attainable.

If so, go full throttle, play Bercy, WTF and DC.

If not, Skip Bercy. You will get two weeks rest and then play WTF and
DC hoping to win both the titles even though you may not finish YE #1.

 

[Federberg]

^That's interesting GSM. Are those in order of preference?

For my part, I don't care if he's number 1 or 2 at this stage in his career. Either will do, for positioning at the slams. The WTF would be the most important thing to me, closely followed by the DC. I really don't care that much about YE#1. It's nice to have, but I don't see it as anything other than icing on a very nice cake

 

[isabelle]

According to tennisworldusa.org, Youngderer could modify his fall's schedule. His priorities are Masters ans DC's final. I guess he could skip Shanghai ? Or Basel ? Or Bercy ? He'll probably announce it soon

Here is my unsolicited suggestion to Fed. Have the following three as the goals for
the rest of 2014 and in that priority order

1. Attain YE#1, if it appears within reach.
2. Win WTF.
3. Win DC.

In order to do so, I would recommend that Fed throw in Tokyo to his schedule.
Most big name players have signed up for Beijing and Tokyo field is relatively light
(despite being quite good). What matters is getting ranking points in an easy way.
Follow up Tokyo with Shanghai and then play in Basel also.

Now, reassess the situation. The ranking points picture should be clear
by this time. Also, what if any events Novak misses will be clear. Whether Rafa
is in action and if so how good he is also will be clear. Now, estimate whether
YE #1 is a practical goal. It should be realistically possible and not just
mathematically attainable.

If so, go full throttle, play Bercy, WTF and DC.

If not, Skip Bercy. You will get two weeks rest and then play WTF and
DC hoping to win both the titles even though you may not finish YE #1.

I don't think he 'll win Masters...and I hope France"ll win DC...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^That's interesting GSM. Are those in order of preference?

For my part, I don't care if he's number 1 or 2 at this stage in his career. Either will do, for positioning at the slams. The WTF would be the most important thing to me, closely followed by the DC. I really don't care that much about YE#1. It's nice to have, but I don't see it as anything other than icing on a very nice cake

Yes. YE #1 at this age will be a tremendous achievement. Moreover it would equal the
Sampras's record. Finally, this year may be his last chance to finish YE #1 as he is not
getting any younger and as youngsters are showing their mettle. Due to these reasons,
I would put finishing YE #1 as the first priority.

Having said that, I would not want Fed to go all out on that jeopardize his longterm
prospects. In particular, I don't want Fed to go all out on this and then have a 2015
that is like 2013.

That is why I am suggesting a strategy of play Tokyo, Shanghai and Basel (there
is a week gap between Shanghai and Basel) and then reevaluate the situation based
on his own results and also the current situationof Rafa with respect to injury and
Novak with respect to family. If there is a realistic possibility, go all out and try to
attain #1. If it does not look realistic, simply skip Bercy and save yourself to win
WTF and/or DC. Note that he will get a two week gap between Basel and
WTF, if he skips Bercy. I think it is a simple and reasonable plan.

 

[Federberg]

Makes a lot of sense!


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[DarthFed]

I don't think he has to worry about burnout for 2015. He will still have a good couple months before 2015 starts. I don't put 2013 down to fatigue from his great play in 2012, I think it was a loss of motivation and confidence to go along with a nagging back problem. Roger will still be plenty motivated in 2015 even if he finishes #1 because winning slams is still the biggest deal by far.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

I don't think he has to worry about burnout for 2015. He will still have a good couple months before 2015 starts. I don't put 2013 down to fatigue from his great play in 2012, I think it was a loss of motivation and confidence to go along with a nagging back problem. Roger will still be plenty motivated in 2015 even if he finishes #1 because winning slams is still the biggest deal by far.

But I question what will happen to Federer next year if he walks away from 2014 empty handed - no Davis Cup, no #1, no World Tour Finals title, no slams obviously :idea:

 

[Kieran]

The guy is 33, there's no problem him having the year he's having! He's doing great...

 

[brokenshoelace]

I don't think he has to worry about burnout for 2015. He will still have a good couple months before 2015 starts. I don't put 2013 down to fatigue from his great play in 2012, I think it was a loss of motivation and confidence to go along with a nagging back problem. Roger will still be plenty motivated in 2015 even if he finishes #1 because winning slams is still the biggest deal by far.

But I question what will happen to Federer next year if he walks away from 2014 empty handed - no Davis Cup, no #1, no World Tour Finals title, no slams obviously :idea:

What will happen to Federer? Interesting question. Rumor has it he's been overheard asking for cyanide. He could be taking it really, REALLY hard.

Or you know, alternatively, he'll spend time with his wife and newborns before preparing for the new season like any professional tennis player would. In his spare time, he can count his money and grand slam trophies while reflecting on his laundry list of accomplishments just in case he's feeling down. Then he'll show up to play at the Australian Open where he'll go deep again.

I don't know which scenario is more plausible though.

 

[DarthFed]

I don't think he has to worry about burnout for 2015. He will still have a good couple months before 2015 starts. I don't put 2013 down to fatigue from his great play in 2012, I think it was a loss of motivation and confidence to go along with a nagging back problem. Roger will still be plenty motivated in 2015 even if he finishes #1 because winning slams is still the biggest deal by far.

But I question what will happen to Federer next year if he walks away from 2014 empty handed - no Davis Cup, no #1, no World Tour Finals title, no slams obviously :idea:

He'll be motivated to get the job done in 2015.

 

[DarthFed]

The guy is 33, there's no problem him having the year he's having! He's doing great...

That's to be answered in a couple months. If he wins YEC and finishes #1 it is a good year, if not it is a bad year. Might not be fair but that's how it is. It is mainly 4 tournaments that decides it for him, possibly 5 if you stretch it to YEC. But if he gets to #1 somehow that also makes it a good year.

 

[Federberg]

DF I think that's a rather narrow definition of success. I think he's had a great year already, if only because it's reconfirmed his belief that he's still in the mix. It could have been better for sure. But I wouldn't call it a failure if he doesn't win the YEC or finish #1. If he wins the DC, then it is a GREAT year.

 

[DarthFed]

It's all about the resume Federberg. I'm sure Roger has noticed the Island Boy creeping up on his most important record so a year where he doesn't add anything is almost automatically a bad year. Adding another YEC would be great and getting #1 at age 33 would be HUGE. Without that then it's been all bad IMO. But you already know my opinion on Davis Cup. It is extremely important to the players but it doesn't decide a player's greatness because it is a team event, similar to the doubles gold at the Olympics. So from the resume perspective it has about the same importance as winning doubles at Halle would only it'd be a thousand times more important to Roger individually. And that could possibly help fuel 2015 if he was to help the Swiss win it.

 

[Federberg]

^I get what you're saying. And while a small part of me cares about comparisons of Nadal and Federer's resume, I must admit I'm quite relaxed about it. What will be, will be. I have a great deal of discomfort permitting the belief that Roger's year can be defined in anyway by how it lets him stack up against Rafa. So while I understand your feeling in the context of Fedal, I like to take a step back and just consider what a 33yr old guy who is some distance from his best is still able to achieve.

 

[DarthFed]

^I get what you're saying. And while a small part of me cares about comparisons of Nadal and Federer's resume, I must admit I'm quite relaxed about it. What will be, will be. I have a great deal of discomfort permitting the belief that Roger's year can be defined in anyway by how it lets him stack up against Rafa. So while I understand your feeling in the context of Fedal, I like to take a step back and just consider what a 33yr old guy who is some distance from his best is still able to achieve.

Can't argue with much of that. What Roger is doing for a 33 year old is great but that's not surprising. But overall (without age qualifications) what he's done this year isn't great and I still think Roger's at a point where his goals are to do great things (win the occasional major mainly). I doubt he is just happy reaching semis or even going 5 in the Wimbledon final, he still is ambitious.

 

[Federberg]

^Agreed. He still has great ambitions as he should still being a member of the troika. I'm not saying not winning isn't disappointing, but for me it's still possible to have a great year even if you haven't won a slam. I would like to see him winning more tournaments. Slams ideally, but tournaments. Would be great for him to overhaul Lendl on 94 wins. Connors is probably too far away though!

 

[Federberg]

Wow! Andy Murray has been a foolish foolish boy today. Tweeting his intention to vote 'Yes' to Scottish Independence, he'd better not make an appearance at the WTF this year. He'll get a horrific reception. I'm not sure his popularity will ever recover from this one... :nono

 

[Front242]

Wow! Andy Murray has been a foolish foolish boy today. Tweeting his intention to vote 'Yes' to Scottish Independence, he'd better not make an appearance at the WTF this year. He'll get a horrific reception. I'm not sure his popularity will ever recover from this one... :nono

He mightn't even make the WTF anyway but I agree, not exactly doing himself any favours tweeting that. Best to keep it to himself.

 

[Federberg]

Wow! Andy Murray has been a foolish foolish boy today. Tweeting his intention to vote 'Yes' to Scottish Independence, he'd better not make an appearance at the WTF this year. He'll get a horrific reception. I'm not sure his popularity will ever recover from this one... :nono

He mightn't even make the WTF anyway but I agree, not exactly doing himself any favours tweeting that. Best to keep it to himself.

It really was a bizarre thing to do. And the timing implies he was trying to extract maximum impact. He's basically done irreparable commercial damage to himself today. Did he not speak to his advisors or sponsors? Clearly his head is not in the right space at the moment

 

[Federberg]

Cable vol is getting crushed today as everyone starts to dump protection trades and the cash rate (GBP/USD) is peeking above 1.64 for the first time in over a week. Betting shops are becoming increasingly certain of a 'No' vote even if I haven't heard of any exit polling yet. These guys always know something the rest of us don't! So it looks like a 'No'. In a way I respect his courage, but commercially soooo stupid!

Apologies if my FX trader jargon is incomprehensible to some of you...