The Rankings Thread (ATP)

El Dude

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Sinner's been far & away the best player if results are the only dynamic! It isn't as cut & dry w/ a WADA investigation hanging over his head! Carlos needs to "pull back" a lit'l to make his results more consistent! I guess winning China Open helped, but his results in the FALL have reminded me of Nadal's; totally spent going into the YEC! Sinner & Alcaraz have officially taken over it seems as they're making final after final! Time may have run out on The Lost Gen II, w/ Sascha, Stefanos, Dom, & Daniil! They had their chances only taking 2 majors, 4 YEC's, & an Olympic Gold medal between the 4 of them OTTH! Carlos could get his CGS very early in his career by taking Aussie next yr.! Normally the FO is the 1 major needed to complete this feat! Very impressive start! :fearful-face::yawningface::face-with-hand-over-mouth::astonished-face::angry-face:
To be fair to what you call "Lost Gen II" (formerly "Next Gen"), they've been unlucky on both ends, chronologically speaking. One one end, they had to deal with probably the three greatest players of all time having extended prime years then taking turns having career renaissances starting in 2017 with Fedal, just as they were starting to come of age. Really, going back to 2005, there hasn't been a Slam in which at least two of the Big Four were in prime form -- all the way through the 2022 Wimbledon, which was Rafa's last SF.

On the other end, it is that exact Slam that saw Carlos Alcaraz rise and win his first. Carlos was still a pup and beatable in 2023, but Novak had one of his best years. By the end of that year, Jannik Sinner was rising fast and in 2024, he and Alcaraz fully took the reigns of dominance.

The point being, there was really no gap between the extended hegemony of the Big 3/4 and the rise of Sincaraz. The baton got passed over two generations.

Certainly a truly great player will find and take his shots. That's pretty much the definition of a great: a player that finds a way to win big tournaments--especially Slams--regardless of the context. None of Next Gen will go down in history as ATGs, but there are several that are better than any Lost Genner.

Still, I chuckled at the appellation - they are a bit lost, but far less so than the Nishikori-Raonic-Dimitrov gang.
 
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tented

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Really, going back to 2005, there hasn't been a Slam in which at least two of the Big Four were in prime form -- all the way through the 2022 Wimbledon, which was Rafa's last SF.

On the other end, it is that exact Slam that saw Carlos Alcaraz rise and win his first.
Alcaraz’s first major title was the US Open in 2022. He lost in the R16 at Wimbledon that year.
 
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El Dude

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Here's a visual depiction from one of my charts. Slams only - top players from 2016-24, slam-winners in bold:
Screenshot 2024-10-21 at 6.11.19 PM.png



As you can see, the Slams were dominated by the Big Four - who won all of them on this chart until Thiem in 2020, except for Wawrinka's last in 2016. That includes 13 straight from 2017 to mid 2020 - which are exactly the years that "Next Gen" came into their own (which is pretty much Thiem through Tsitsipas in the chart above).

And then you have Novak pass the baton to Alcaraz in Sinner in the last year and a half or so.

You can also see the records of Next Gen in Slam finals: 1-3 for Thiem, 0-1 for Kyrgios, 1-5 for Medvedev, 0-1 for Berrettini, 0-2 for Zverev, 0-1 for Fritz , 0-2 for Tsitsipas, 0-3 for Ruud...that's 2-18 overall. Yikes.
 
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El Dude

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Oh, and compare that to the "true" Lost Gen (born after Cilic/Del Potro and before Thiem): 0-2. That's it - just one Slam final loss for each of Nishikori and Raonic.

Aside from possible the group born after Laver in 38 and before Ashe in 43, it is probably the weakest 4-5 year cohort in Open Era history.
 
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Moxie

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To be fair to what you call "Lost Gen II" (formerly "Next Gen"), they've been unlucky on both ends, chronologically speaking. One one end, they had to deal with probably the three greatest players of all time having extended prime years then taking turns having career renaissances starting in 2017 with Fedal, just as they were starting to come of age. Really, going back to 2005, there hasn't been a Slam in which at least two of the Big Four were in prime form -- all the way through the 2022 Wimbledon, which was Rafa's last SF.

On the other end, it is that exact Slam that saw Carlos Alcaraz rise and win his first. Carlos was still a pup and beatable in 2023, but Novak had one of his best years. By the end of that year, Jannik Sinner was rising fast and in 2024, he and Alcaraz fully took the reigns of dominance.

The point being, there was really no gap between the extended hegemony of the Big 3/4 and the rise of Sincaraz. The baton got passed over two generations.

Certainly a truly great player will find and take his shots. That's pretty much the definition of a great: a player that finds a way to win big tournaments--especially Slams--regardless of the context. None of Next Gen will go down in history as ATGs, but there are several that are better than any Lost Genner.

Still, I chuckled at the appellation - they are a bit lost, but far less so than the Nishikori-Raonic-Dimitrov gang.
Sort of like Rafa being sandwiched between 2 other ATG's on either side, but, he, being a Great, managed to find his way. (Standing by for your enormous sigh, here, but you know I'm right.)

I think you're a bit generous to them, but you did say that it's on them for not finding a way. Thiem didn't even win his by beating one of the Big 3. That's only Daniil. So, what it comes down to, then, is talent, right? Or that, and grit (or lack thereof.) At least Lost Gen I had a younger Big 3/4 to deal with. And yes, they were out-classed. I think Lost Gen II is a fair appellation. They had older Big 3, and STILL couldn't get past them, but for one. Now they have very talented ones coming up in Alcaraz and Sinner. It's unlucky for them, I guess, but they could try harder to make their own luck. Can we just concede that they simply aren't good enough? Because what your theory/graph shows is that their only hope was finding a fallow period, like late 90s/early 2000s, when a few people snuck one out, here and there.
 
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El Dude

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Sort of like Rafa being sandwiched between 2 other ATG's on either side, but, he, being a Great, managed to find his way. (Standing by for your enormous sigh, here, but you know I'm right.)

I think you're a bit generous to them, but you did say that it's on them for not finding a way. Thiem didn't even win his by beating one of the Big 3. That's only Daniil. So, what it comes down to, then, is talent, right? Or that, and grit (or lack thereof.) At least Lost Gen I had a younger Big 3/4 to deal with. And yes, they were out-classed. I think Lost Gen II is a fair appellation. They had older Big 3, and STILL couldn't get past them, but for one. Now they have very talented ones coming up in Alcaraz and Sinner. It's unlucky for them, I guess, but they could try harder to make their own luck. Can we just concede that they simply aren't good enough? Because what your theory/graph shows is that their only hope was finding a fallow period, like late 90s/early 2000s, when a few people snuck one out, here and there.

We aren't disagreeing, Moxie, but I'm just emphasizing that Lost Gen II (or Next Gen) > Lost Gen I. They're not simply a continuation of that level of suckitude, but a step up to a lesser degree of suckitude -- if still far from greatness.

For comparison's sake, I sort of see Andrey Rublev as a similar caliber player as Tomas Berdych. Overall similar results, with the caveat that Berdych tended to go a bit deeper in Slams, but Rublev does better at non-Slams. Rublev is probably the fifth best player of Lost Gen II - after Medvedev, Thiem, Zverev, and Tsitsipas. How many players of Lost Gen I were better than Berdych? Any? Maybe Nishikori for a few years but his peak was relatively short; Raonic and Dimitrov had flashes, but overall? Maybe none. Rublev vs. Nishikori becomes more interesting (I'd argue that Kei was better at his best, but Rublev has been overall more prodigious in his results and level of play).

So you have four guys (Medvedev, Zverev, Thiem, Tsitsipas) who are better than any Lost Genners, one guy who is roughly equal to the best of Lost Gen (Rublev), and a handful of guys who aren't far behind the best of Lost Gen (Berrettini, Hurkacz, Khachanov, maybe one or two more). Berrettini is probably the closest thing to a "What If" story, in that he seemed to be gearing up when he started getting hurt. We could keep going down the list, but I think overall the younger generation is considerable better - both in terms of depth and quality.

But again, that doesn't make it a good generation - just markedly better than the "true" Lost Gen. In a way it was a transition out of the Dark Ages of tennis prospects - but didn't quite make the muster, with no truly great players.

And don't forget Fiero's MO: If a player isn't peak Borg, he sucks. There's no differentiation - you're either peak Borg or you suck, so really there are only half a dozen players or so who haven't sucked ;-).
 

Moxie

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We aren't disagreeing, Moxie, but I'm just emphasizing that Lost Gen II (or Next Gen) > Lost Gen I. They're not simply a continuation of that level of suckitude, but a step up to a lesser degree of suckitude -- if still far from greatness.
Oh, I know we're not disagreeing, just discussing. I can't remember who all was in the Lost Gen I, but it was a weak field.
For comparison's sake, I sort of see Andrey Rublev as a similar caliber player as Tomas Berdych. Overall similar results, with the caveat that Berdych tended to go a bit deeper in Slams, but Rublev does better at non-Slams. Rublev is probably the fifth best player of Lost Gen II - after Medvedev, Thiem, Zverev, and Tsitsipas. How many players of Lost Gen I were better than Berdych? Any? Maybe Nishikori for a few years but his peak was relatively short; Raonic and Dimitrov had flashes, but overall? Maybe none. Rublev vs. Nishikori becomes more interesting (I'd argue that Kei was better at his best, but Rublev has been overall more prodigious in his results and level of play).
You love to use Berdych as an example, and he is kind of a good one, in terms of "solid, constant, but not massively talented," and in the era of greater players, but he doesn't line up against everyone. Two quibbles I have with the above is that you wonder if Nishikori was better than Berdych, or if Dimitrov was. Nishikori I think was a much more interesting and talented player than Tomas, but he was unlucky with injuries. I don't think he had ATG in him, but he caused trouble. His window of best years was unfortunately narrow. Because he also had a good head. As to Dimitrov, even you have wondered recently if he had a resurgence in him, when looking at big tournaments. To me, he is the poster boy for the Lost Gen. Lots of talent, so much potential, but so much distraction or who knows what. To me, Zverev and Tsitsipas are the inheritors of his ignominious mantel. So, I see why you compare Kei and Grigor unfavorably to Berdych, in terms of overall results. but I don't think he's a good fit, in terms of playing style or general ceiling/floor. I do think the comparison with Rublev fits, though.
So you have four guys (Medvedev, Zverev, Thiem, Tsitsipas) who are better than any Lost Genners, one guy who is roughly equal to the best of Lost Gen (Rublev), and a handful of guys who aren't far behind the best of Lost Gen (Berrettini, Hurkacz, Khachanov, maybe one or two more). Berrettini is probably the closest thing to a "What If" story, in that he seemed to be gearing up when he started getting hurt. We could keep going down the list, but I think overall the younger generation is considerable better - both in terms of depth and quality.
I won't repeat my above, but I see the point that Lost Gen II has more depth, even if they can't get over the hump. I think that some of those guys, like Khachanov, make the list because they snuck out a big title when the Big 3 were caring less about them, late season, esp. Berrettini having so many injury/illness issues is a bummer, but he'd still be running more or less where these guys are.
But again, that doesn't make it a good generation - just markedly better than the "true" Lost Gen. In a way it was a transition out of the Dark Ages of tennis prospects - but didn't quite make the muster, with no truly great players.

And don't forget Fiero's MO: If a player isn't peak Borg, he sucks. There's no differentiation - you're either peak Borg or you suck, so really there are only half a dozen players or so who haven't sucked ;-).
Fair points, and yes, I know that Fiero is a hysteric. He mostly sits on his porch tells everyone to get off of his lawn. Everyone sucks, including Nadal. So we take that with a salt mine full of salt. :face-with-tears-of-joy:
 
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El Dude

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Oh, I know we're not disagreeing, just discussing. I can't remember who all was in the Lost Gen I, but it was a weak field.
If we define Lost Gen I as those players born after Cilic/Del Potro in late 1988 and before Domonic Thiem in late 1993, the "Big Three of Lost Gen" (LOL) are: Nishikori, Dimtrov, Raonic. The next group would include (in no particularly order) players like David Goffin, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Jack Sock. This group blends into solid journeymen like Diego Schwartzman, Bernard Tomic (remember him?), Benoit Paire, Martin Klizan, Marco Cecchinato, Nikoloz Basilashvili (has to check the spelling), Martin Fucsovics, John Millman, Joao Sousa, Daniel Evans, the infamous Tennys Sandgren and more.

Carreno Busta is sort of an outlier, because he snuck in a Masters much later, in 2022, when most of the other guys had faded.

When I first started putting together blog posts back in the day (2011ish) I wrote a pieced called "Donald Young Guns" - when it started to become clear that this was a very weak generation. Donald Young, born in July of 1989 and a few months older than Kei Nishikori, sort of was the harbinger of this generation. He reached the year-end top 100 at age 18 in 2007 due to winning a couple matches at the US Open, but then stagnated for a few years and only briefly broken into the top 40. Young, and his fellow American Ryan Harrison, sort of symbolized the weakness of both this generation and American men's tennis at the time.
You love to use Berdych as an example, and he is kind of a good one, in terms of "solid, constant, but not massively talented," and in the era of greater players, but he doesn't line up against everyone. Two quibbles I have with the above is that you wonder if Nishikori was better than Berdych, or if Dimitrov was. Nishikori I think was a much more interesting and talented player than Tomas, but he was unlucky with injuries. I don't think he had ATG in him, but he caused trouble. His window of best years was unfortunately narrow. Because he also had a good head. As to Dimitrov, even you have wondered recently if he had a resurgence in him, when looking at big tournaments. To me, he is the poster boy for the Lost Gen. Lots of talent, so much potential, but so much distraction or who knows what. To me, Zverev and Tsitsipas are the inheritors of his ignominious mantel. So, I see why you compare Kei and Grigor unfavorably to Berdych, in terms of overall results. but I don't think he's a good fit, in terms of playing style or general ceiling/floor. I do think the comparison with Rublev fits, though.

Absolutely - totally agree. I posed it as a question mark, though, because when all is said and done, their results were somewhat similar, if quite different. Berdych was more consistent, but Nishikori was clearly a better player at his best. But when I compare players, and ask "who is better," I'm considering both talent/upside and results, and part of that is injury and mentality. As an aside, Kei is in the running for best player never to win a big title - and he was signficantly better than a lot of big title winners.

Dimitrov is interesting, because he didn't have Kei's injury struggles but also showed flashes of quasi-brilliance that were more profound than Berdych, but he was less consistent. Berdych finished in the top 10 for seven straight years, and the top 20 for twelve straight years; Dimitrov finished in the top 10 only once (albeit #3), with a five-year run in the top 20 (and a few more years outside of that span in the top 20). In a way, Grigor is more similar to someone like Richard Gasquet (or Gael Monfils), if Gasquet had ever put together a really good year like Grigor's 2017.

I agree that Dimitrov is of a similar category of player to Zverev and Tsitsipas in terms of "ignominousness." But Zverev and Tsitsipas have been significantly better - especially Zverev, who I currently rate as the best overall Slamless player of the Open Era.
I won't repeat my above, but I see the point that Lost Gen II has more depth, even if they can't get over the hump. I think that some of those guys, like Khachanov, make the list because they snuck out a big title when the Big 3 were caring less about them, late season, esp. Berrettini having so many injury/illness issues is a bummer, but he'd still be running more or less where these guys are.
Berrettini is...a shame. I think in terms of talent, he's at least as good as Rublev - or at least comparable - and thus his results are far below his talent level. In a way he's like an even more disappointing Thiem, in that just when he started to look like he might become at least a perennial top 10 guy and even Wimbledon contender, he suffered with repeated injuries. He's sort of bouncing back a bit this year...sort of. But yeah, I hear you about Khachanov. Hurkacz is kind of similar, but a bit better, imo.
Fair points, and yes, I know that Fiero is a hysteric. He mostly sits on his porch tells everyone to get off of his lawn. Everyone sucks, including Nadal. So we take that with a salt mine full of salt. :face-with-tears-of-joy:
But we love him! And he's the master of the random historical anecdotes and hot takes, some of which are just golden.
 
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El Dude

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Oh, and to bring this back to rankings and the thread subject, here are the players born 1980 or later to have been #1 (year-end in bold):

Carlos Alcaraz (2003)
Jannik Sinner (2001)

Daniil Medvedev (1996)
Novak Djokovic (1987)
Andy Murray (1987)
Rafael Nadal (1986)
Andy Roddick (1982)
Roger Federer (1981)
Lleyton Hewitt (1981)

Juan Carlos Ferrero (1980)
Marat Safin (1980)

As you can see, there's a huge gap between Novak and Medvedev, and then a sizeable gap between Medvedev and Sinner - totally skipping over Lost Gen (no one ranked higher than #3, which Grigor and Milos did; Kei ranked no higher than #4). At least Daniil made it, and Zverev and Ruud reached #2, Thiem and Tsitsipas #3.

Going all the way back to Rosewall-Laver (b. 1934-38), Lost Gen is the only five-year cohort to not have a single #1 player, and Lost Gen 2 is the second in a row not to have a single year-end #1.
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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Career Highs on ATP Top 100, Monday 28th October,

14. Draper
31. Mpetshi Perricard
48. Mensik
 
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Moxie

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Oh, and to bring this back to rankings and the thread subject, here are the players born 1980 or later to have been #1 (year-end in bold):

Carlos Alcaraz (2003)
Jannik Sinner (2001)

Daniil Medvedev (1996)
Novak Djokovic (1987)
Andy Murray (1987)
Rafael Nadal (1986)
Andy Roddick (1982)
Roger Federer (1981)
Lleyton Hewitt (1981)

Juan Carlos Ferrero (1980)
Marat Safin (1980)

As you can see, there's a huge gap between Novak and Medvedev, and then a sizeable gap between Medvedev and Sinner - totally skipping over Lost Gen (no one ranked higher than #3, which Grigor and Milos did; Kei ranked no higher than #4). At least Daniil made it, and Zverev and Ruud reached #2, Thiem and Tsitsipas #3.

Going all the way back to Rosewall-Laver (b. 1934-38), Lost Gen is the only five-year cohort to not have a single #1 player, and Lost Gen 2 is the second in a row not to have a single year-end #1.
Sorry for the late reply, but I really love this informative post in the context of the rankings thread. I had a thought, which may or may not be of interest, but you mentioned Zverev and Ruud who reached #2, but (so far) no higher.

@Front242 started positing that Medvedev might be the next number 1, after the 2019 final v. Rafa in 2019. To his credit, he was eventually right...the first #1 after the big 4 was Medvedev. But, at the time, I suggested that he might just hope for him to get to #2, because there hadn't even been a #2 outside of the big 4 since Rafa got there in the summer of 2005. Medvedev got to #2 in March of 2021, (and #1 in June of 2022.) But that's nearly 16 years without a #2 that wasn't Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, or Murray, never-minding #1, which was longer, obviously. (I did look it up...Zverev first got to #2 in July 2022, so it was Medvedev who broke that streak, too.)

A bit of nerdy detail, for what it's worth.
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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Taylor Fritz has qualified for the ATP Finals in Turin, he joins Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev, and Medvedev.
 
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New Career Highs on ATP Top 100, Monday 4th November,

25. Thompson
30. Mpetshi Perricard
61. Bergs
67.Cazaux
 
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El Dude

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We're in a weird situation where Zverev is currently ranked higher than Alcaraz, despite having zero Slam titles to Alcaraz's two. Looking at the breakdown of the Race ranking points, we get:

Slams: Alcaraz 4450, Zverev 2700 (Alcaraz +1750)
Masters: Zverev 3500, Alcaraz 1710 (Zverev +1790)
ATP 500: Zverev 630, Alcaraz 550 (Zverev +80)
ATP 250: Zverev 150, Alcaraz 100 (Zverev +50)
United Cup: Zverev 335 (Zverev +335)

Overall:
Zverev 7315, Alcaraz 6810 (Zverev +505)

So interestingly enough, most of that difference is due to the United Cup, which offers about ATP 500 points. Zverev got 335 presumably because he lost one of the RR matches - not sure why he didn't get the full 500, though, as I can't find anything for the specific breakdown beyond that it is equivalent to an ATP 500.

He'd still be a bit ahead, and only +40 by big titles. Meaning, he's up mostly due to lesser tournaments and the United Cup. Oh, and Alcaraz gets no points for his silver medal at the Olympics (I personally think it should offer ATP 1000 points - especially if the UC offers points - or at least you should be able to swap your Olympics points for your worst Masters, but I don't make the rules).

Anyhow, we still have the Tour finals, so it is possible that this will be a moot point. But Zverev tends to be better on indoor hards, so it might just be one of those things.
 
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^ Alcaraz has 4 Slam titles.
 

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Rankings points are what they are. Everyone complains when a Slam winner drops below a non-slam winner.
 
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