The Rankings Thread (ATP)

[herios]

I'm happy that Rafa will get to pass McEnroe on the all-time list. But you're totally right about what he has to defend, and we have yet to see how he's recovered from his injury. Likely a good call about 1-2 changing hands between them as the year goes along. I think it will take awhile for anyone to break up that particular party for a while...too many points, right?

moxie is right to be cautious, as far as Rafa. He had hardly played since November and people just take for granted that once clay season starts, he will just go on collecting every title available. It might happen that gets injured on clay as well.

 

[Moxie]

moxie is right to be cautious, as far as Rafa. He had hardly played since November and people just take for granted that once clay season starts, he will just go on collecting every title available. It might happen that gets injured on clay as well.

I certainly hope he doesn't get re-injured, but there's no guarantee that he's ready to be back, just by the magic of Monte Carlo. I'll be hoping that he listens hard to his body, ignores the points to defend and tournaments that he loves, and protects his RG, the way that Roger is protecting his Wimbledon.

 

[El Dude]

I'm happy that Rafa will get to pass McEnroe on the all-time list. But you're totally right about what he has to defend, and we have yet to see how he's recovered from his injury. Likely a good call about 1-2 changing hands between them as the year goes along. I think it will take awhile for anyone to break up that particular party for a while...too many points, right?

It will be awhile, yes. Someone - a del Potro or Cilic - would somehow have to win a couple Slams, or at least one Slam and a couple Masters - AND Roger and Rafa would have to stagnate.

 

[mrzz]

Some journalist got transcripts from a wiretap on Federer's cell phone. I was sitting next to him an plane, he thought I could not understand English, heard him talking about it, then I stole his phone -- Brazilians always now how to steal, you know. Here is one interesting call I found:

###############Transcript using voice2text technology#############################
#################Duration: 4 minutes, 33 seconds################################
###################Total number of words: 345##################################
##################recognized words: 338 (96.7%)################################

-- Hey, Rafa, how you're doing, man? How is that leg?
-- [unrecognized] Roger! I am better. Told you that, no? Impossible to be better... no, no, lie, I would be better if you had lost to Cilic. I would have felt much better.
-- [unrecognized]
-- I already congratulated you, my greedy friend. Tell me, the kids are fine?
-- Yes, thanks for asking. They asked about "uncle Rafa" again...
-- I hope to see them in the United States. You could appear in Acapulco, just to visit, no?
-- No, no, it is about that that I am calling. Guys here had a great idea.
-- What are those crazy [unrecognized] thinking now?
-- I will play Rotterdam. If you skip Acapulco and the states, I get to #1 again. Then I lose just after, I don't know, a few matches, and you get #1 back. Then comes clay and you have a lot to defend. The #1 will be jumping back and forth. Every time it will be a fuss. Every time it will be a record of how many times one guy got to #1. And we just have to sit and watch everyone writing all that shit.
-- [unrecognized] but they always write more about you!
-- But it will be fun. And every time we get to #1 Nike has to give us loads of money. Guys said we can change position four times. It will be fun like hell. If we do it real good we can keep changing in the grass season. But you would need to get to round for at Wimbledon.
-- four? I need to practice then.
-- Come to my place. We can practice...
-- No, they will find out. They will become suspicious. One day they find it out. I cannot believe they never find it out.
-- Oh, stop that. You always think they'll find out. They never do. We just keep laughing of them.
-- Ah, ok. I need to think. Maybe it is not impossible. It will be unbelievable. Unbelievable fun. And good money. Lots of plata.
-- Sure will! My best to your old man! Miss him a lot. Think about it. Call me tomorrow.
-- OK. A kiss on the children and Mirka. Bye Roger!

 

[herios]

I certainly hope he doesn't get re-injured, but there's no guarantee that he's ready to be back, just by the magic of Monte Carlo. I'll be hoping that he listens hard to his body, ignores the points to defend and tournaments that he loves, and protects his RG, the way that Roger is protecting his Wimbledon.

It will be awhile, yes. Someone - a del Potro or Cilic - would somehow have to win a couple Slams, or at least one Slam and a couple Masters - AND Roger and Rafa would have to stagnate.

If we compare how Roger and Rafa did this year so far vs last year at the same time, both are slipping down as well.
Roger is below last year with roughly 900 points, Rafa is below his last year tally for the first 3 months by 1830 points.
Of course they dominated the field big time and nobody stepped up this year yet to be a threat, but let's see first who wins Miami.

 

[Moxie]

If we compare how Roger and Rafa did this year so far vs last year at the same time, both are slipping down as well.
Roger is below last year with roughly 900 points, Rafa is below his last year tally for the first 3 months by 1830 points.
Of course they dominated the field big time and nobody stepped up this year yet to be a threat, but let's see first who wins Miami.

Will it matter? Or who will make the most impact on the rankings if they win Miami?

 

[herios]

Will it matter? Or who will make the most impact on the rankings if they win Miami?

If DelPotro wins it, it will matter, even if not right away.

 

[Moxie]

If DelPotro wins it, it will matter, even if not right away.

I kind of suspected he was the only one that could make up some ground, at this point.

 

[El Dude]

If Delpo wins Miami he's only 350 points behind Roger in the Race rankings. Of course it is way too early to worry about Race rankings, but worth noting. Also, Chung is #4 right now.

As far as YE1 is concerned, in terms of likelihood I'd say the following:

Roger
Rafa
Delpo/Cilic
Dimitrov/Zverev/Thiem
Everyone else

Roger is the current favorite, but he is no runaway favorite, especially after what we saw at the Sunshine Double.

 

[herios]

If Delpo wins Miami he's only 350 points behind Roger in the Race rankings. Of course it is way too early to worry about Race rankings, but worth noting. Also, Chung is #4 right now.

As far as YE1 is concerned, in terms of likelihood I'd say the following:

Roger
Rafa
Delpo/Cilic
Dimitrov/Zverev/Thiem
Everyone else

Did you put on the list the Dimitrov/Zverev/Thiem trio based on their last year results?
Because so far this season, all they demonstrated is they are some weak links in the top 10.
You remember the discussion at the end of last season, how weak this top 10 looked.
The bottom already fell out, aka PCB and Sock, now Goffin is on the deck, after him your trio will follow suit.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

I'm happy that Rafa will get to pass McEnroe on the all-time list. But you're totally right about what he has to defend, and we have yet to see how he's recovered from his injury. Likely a good call about 1-2 changing hands between them as the year goes along. I think it will take awhile for anyone to break up that particular party for a while...too many points, right?

I don't think that "awhile" will be very long. Ranking points last 12 months only. Take a look at Race ranking you'll have better idea what's brewing, and that picture is quite different: Delpo, Cilic and Chung (!) knocking at the top!
Delpo is not too many points behind. If he continues playing as he does now, he'll be #3-4 after Miami. So, Big4 starting from 2018, will now look: Fed, Rafa, Delpo, Cilic. Others: Novak, Andy have fallen way back and don't look to be coming soon. Rest of the players (Grigor, Zverev, Thiem, etc.) are a notch lower class. I have a suspicion that the Fedal party at the very top must be broken this year or next year. Of course depends on the health of Fedal party but I think they are too old and have too many miles in their legs to defend their status for much longer.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

If Delpo wins Miami he's only 350 points behind Roger in the Race rankings. Of course it is way too early to worry about Race rankings, but worth noting. Also, Chung is #4 right now.

As far as YE1 is concerned, in terms of likelihood I'd say the following:

Roger
Rafa
Delpo/Cilic
Dimitrov/Zverev/Thiem
Everyone else

Roger is the current favorite, but he is no runaway favorite, especially after what we saw at the Sunshine Double.

Dude, you've been having exactly my thoughts, as the meaning of your post and my post above is almost the same. What a coincidence!

 

[mrzz]

My bets for YE#1:

1) Cilic/del Potro
2) Nadal/Federer
3) .... (sound of crickets)...
4) .... (sound of silence)...
5) .....(someone coughs)....
6) Thiem/Chung

 

[herios]

New career high this week:

15. Diego Schwartzman 25y
19. Hyeon Chung 21y
28. Borna Coric 21y
58. Frances Tiafoe 20y
69. Stefanos Tsitsipas 19y

 

[El Dude]

New career high this week:

15. Diego Schwartzman 25y
19. Hyeon Chung 21y
28. Borna Coric 21y
58. Frances Tiafoe 20y
69. Stefanos Tsitsipas 19y

Almost all Next Gen, and one Lost Gen guy.

Slowly but surely.

 

[Federberg]

"Lost Gen"? Is that a thing now?

 

[mrzz]

^^But the highest ranked guy is "Lost Gen". Go Diego!

btw @Federberg, that expression is being used for quite a while in fact. If I am not mistaken first known use was by @El Dude and now you see it being used in sites as tennis.com (eeeech) and the official ATP site.

 

[Moxie]

I've heard commentators use it on TV, too. And I do think El Dude coined it.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

What is happening with Swedish tennis? I see one guy in top 200. Such a rich tradition of tennis and no one good in sight. Sad.

 

[El Dude]

The Ymer brothers, who are of Ethiopian descent, were supposed to be better than they've been.

But yeah, the last good Swede was Soderling. Before him, second tier types like Johansson, Enqvist, Bjorkman, etc. But there hasn't been anyone really good since Edberg and Wilander retired.