lady Tennis Fan is awesome and one the greatest fans of Rafa on this planet.
That's potentially very brutal from Round 3 onwards. Ouch.
Sidenote: Groth has been injured so it may be touch and go if he even makes it out there for the first round.
The match against Groth is a formality, because Sam has hardly done anything this year. Now that you are saying he was injured, I understand why the bad results.
The Main Draw - No favors for Nadal, he'll have to earn it the hard way.
Groth > Facundo > Fognini > Thiem > Tsonga > Djokovic > Murray/Wawrinka
Respectfully,
masterclass
The difference is that a few years ago, it would not have mattered who was in his draw at RG, he was that much above them all on clay.
Now he has to hope some breaks go his way.
Respectfully,
masterclass
tough draw but it is one rafa has to try to navigate while also getting all the proper tests along the way.
but there are some constants that you cant navigate:
1. suboptimal fitness given the demanding style: heavy topspin game
2. suboptimal physicality
3. suboptimal match play and practice
these are very difficult hurdles to overcome in the very short run.
rafa could have made life a little easier for himself on the court with longer and harder and more frequent practice sessions.
he could have skipped Miami. he did not need the money as he is making tons and tons anyway selling tommy Hilfiger suits on the paris sidewalks.
he could have taken in 2 more small clay events.
Hey, aren't you the guy that said no reason to do too much in Madrid and risk in jury? Anyway, Rafa is working hard, and he is on his best court, now. The problem before the draw is the same as the problem now: Djokovic. If Rafa has been working on his game to solve Djokovic, he'll beat everyone else. Additionally, we could do with a bit of Novak beating himself. By which I also mean literally, as when he hit himself with the racquet in Rome.
I don't think they give appearance fees for required events.since he took monte carlo and Barcelona the right decision was to take in 2 matches at best in madrid and then just bolt.
that is where the injury could have come in.
he is also a damn fool. he should have never gone to Miami. for what?
for appearance fee? he can make that up selling tommy Hilfiger suits on the paris saidewalks.
small clay event in Houston and the one in Casablanca offered some opportunities to take in some easy matches on clay against pedestrian level players.
I don't think they give appearance fees for required events.
And I don't think Rafa was either going to get match play worth mentioning at Mickey Mouse events. To what end? He won MC and Barcelona. He lost to Murray in Madrid and Djokovic in Rome, but he played them much tighter than last year. This is better for the head than beating a 4th stringer in Houston or Casablanca, IMO. He's much closer to the goal, without the extra wear-and-tear.
I understand your point about clay, but we both agreed that over-playing is not the answer. What Rafa has played on clay has been mostly very good for the confidence. Including the loss to Djokovic, which he knows put him closer to the win there than he has been in 2 years. When Rafa lost to Novak at AO '12, he was the only one on his team not devastated. Why? Because he knew he was closer. And then he beat Novak 3 times in succession on clay. Including at RG. Maybe that works this year, or not. But I don't think beating 3rd stringers in Houston gets the head OR the game to the same place. And there is something to be said for not over-playing and risking injury. Nadal needs to focus on quality play, and beating the top guys, going forward.he lost early in rio and argentina also.
7-10 extra matches on clay and skipping Miami would have allowed him to be better prepared.
clay is the wellspring from which he flows. clay is his last stand and the window is closing so rapidly now.