The Fall of Rafael Nadal

[Moxie]

Moxie wrote:
Face it, you’re a fair-weather fan. You touted him big-time when he was on top of the world, and now you slag him around because it makes you look bad. I think you take it too personally. Rafa hasn’t given up on himself, nor has he given up on winning. It’s you who has given up on him. We get it. Now let’s wait until the 2016 season begins and see how it really plays out. Fair enough?

Stop the blind worshipping and mindless bark. and list the events that you think he is going to win if you are so damn high on him. you are the one who keeps talking about his resurgence. and yet you can’t find a way to list a single event that he is goin to win. the world is all ears. Start talking and put your money your mouth is. And don’t worry about my loyalty. I have the the right to call it exactly I see it. And I see it a lot better than most. In fact I can spot trends 4-5 years in advance. the whole world knows that Muster, vilas, and Rafa are my players but never will I cut them any slack. Blind worship is just not my thing.

Though repetition is your thing. And predictions are not mine. As I've suggested, let's see what happens in 2016.

 

[brokenshoelace]

for the record Rafa has zero masters titles now 2 years running.

Not true. He won Madrid in 2014.

 

[ClayDeath]

Clay Death wrote:
for the record Rafa has zero masters titles now 2 years running.

Not true. He won Madrid in 2014.

nishikori retired. I don't call that a win.



if a clown like fignini can score 2 wins on the rapidly declining Rafa you don't think Nishikori can.



face the music man just like the rest of us.



there will be exactly zero hard court titles in 2016 and zero masters titles in 2016.

he says it himself: he said he does not know if he can be a factor at big events.



that is his way of saying that he is done. and he his until he produces some sort of real results.



again those 3 rinky dink titles for 2015 clearly spell out the decline for this all time great.

he is doing absolutely nothing to change his stars. nothing.

it is all talk for public consumption and for the fans and followers and the sponsors.



you heard nalbandian even if you don't hear me. only I say it years ahead of these true tennis insiders.

the real real reason rafa has declined so much is because he never bothered to innovate, progress, and even maintain the competitive advantage he had. rafa refuses to change a single thing.



and now he has taken that just one step further. now he just does not care to win. it is what it is.

why the hell do you think he is telling the world that he is just doing fine. and that is after he tells them that he wont be ready for the Australian Open.



this dude is done. he is on his own retirement circuit.



nalbandian said that it is clay or it is the exit.

 

[ClayDeath]

was djokovic there in Madrid in 2014? the answer is no.

 

was Federer there in Madrid in 2014? no

he did not really beat anybody and the guy he beat retired. nobody called that a win.

 

was andy there? andy showed up in 2015 and promptly destroyed him in 2 quick sets.

 

[DarthFed]

^ I can't stand Nadal and I call it a win because he was holding the ugly trophy at the end.  Circumstances be damned. Also it should be noted that Rafa won the frickin French that year just 4-5 weeks after Madrid so it's not like he was garbage all of 2014.  It was really after Rg 2014 that his level started to plummet.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Wow, Nadal never progressed according to Samson. I miss arguing with Cali.

 

[ClayDeath]

I am glad we got that 9th RG.

 

we were very lucky. Rafa was cramping up bad and even throwing up but he fought hard.

now add to that the fact that Djokovic was not 100 percent. He was not feeling well.

 

[ClayDeath]

what he is doing is cashing in on his fame and high stock price and also just enjoying the spotlight.

at some point even the most clueless reporters and analysts will catch on. He has no crisis of confidence.

he just does not care to win anymore. He has no desire to absolutely bust his chops in order to be a factor at big events.

his results should be spelling that out.

he has limited fitness and  physicality. I mean it is barely above the minimum required levels to compete effectively at the highest levels.

 

how can he have a crisis of confidence when he has had a winning record against 100 percent of the top 30 players?

i think he will exit the sport at the end of 2016.

 

more later.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

How can he have a crisis of confidence when he has had a winning record against 100 percent of the top 30 players? i think he will exit the sport at the end of 2016. more later.

97%

 

[Moxie]

Clay Death wrote:
How can he have a crisis of confidence when he has had a winning record against 100 percent of the top 30 players? i think he will exit the sport at the end of 2016. more later.

97%

Note the tense. Actually he did have a winning H2H vs. all of the top 30 players (actually all of the seeded players) going into the USO 2013. That's when Davydenko fell out of the top 30.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

Edbergs Ghost wrote:
<blockquote>
Clay Death wrote:
How can he have a crisis of confidence when he has had a winning record against 100 percent of the top 30 players? i think he will exit the sport at the end of 2016. more later.

97%

</blockquote>
Note the tense. Actually he did have a winning H2H vs. all of the top 30 players (actually all of the seeded players) going into the USO 2013. That’s when Davydenko fell out of the top 30.

Present perfect - an action that began in the past and continues in the present. Presently 97%.

 

[Moxie]

Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
Edbergs Ghost wrote:
<blockquote>
Clay Death wrote:
How can he have a crisis of confidence when he has had a winning record against 100 percent of the top 30 players? i think he will exit the sport at the end of 2016. more later.

97%

</blockquote>
Note the tense. Actually he did have a winning H2H vs. all of the top 30 players (actually all of the seeded players) going into the USO 2013. That’s when Davydenko fell out of the top 30.</blockquote>
Present perfect – an action that began in the past and continues in the present. Presently 97%.

OK, EG, it could be read that way. However, if I said "I have had 6 cars," you wouldn't assume I still have all 6, unless I said "I have had six cars since 2013." In any case, 97% isn't bad. (It's one loss to Nick Kyrgios.)

 

[EdbergsGhost]

94% then.  And still excellent.

 

 

[Moxie]

94% then. And still excellent.

Wait...you were making all of that point because Djokovic finally tied their H2H? That's a bit sad, really. Since it only took 9+ years. B-)

 

[DarthFed]

^ You can't use the age excuse when they are only one year apart.  Djoker will hopefully continue to make Nads look stupid and that annoying Rafa vs. the top 30 stat will start to get a whole lot worse just like his win %.  Father Time is undefeated.

 

[Billie]

Edbergs Ghost wrote:
94% then. And still excellent.

Wait…you were making all of that point because Djokovic finally tied their H2H? That’s a bit sad, really. Since it only took 9+ years.

Why does it matter how long it took? It is their whole careers that matter. It's not how you start, but how you finish, I always thought. ;-)

Some players start better in their younger years, some need a bit of time to develop. But at the end of their careers, we'll tally then, all right?

 

[Moxie]

^ You can’t use the age excuse when they are only one year apart. Djoker will hopefully continue to make Nads look stupid and that annoying Rafa vs. the top 30 stat will start to get a whole lot worse just like his win %. Father Time is undefeated.

I didn't actually mention age, I mentioned how long it had taken Novak to tie the h2h. And you're the one that mentioned Father Time, in the end. I know it annoys you that Rafa has had a positive h2h over much of the field for such a long time, as well as his win %. But it does bear mentioning, (and since you mentioned it...thanks...,) because it is often Federer fans on the forums who take the tack that Roger's negative showing vis-a-vis Nadal isn't so important, as it's his showing versus the field that matters. If that point is taken, then it is worth noting Nadal's very good record against the field, as well. Which in his case includes Federer, Murray and Djokovic.

 

[Moxie]

Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
Edbergs Ghost wrote:
94% then. And still excellent.

Wait…you were making all of that point because Djokovic finally tied their H2H? That’s a bit sad, really. Since it only took 9+ years.

</blockquote>
Why does it matter how long it took? It is their whole careers that matter. It’s not how you start, but how you finish, I always thought.

Some players start better in their younger years, some need a bit of time to develop. But at the end of their careers, we’ll tally then, all right?

It's at least a little bit naive to think that it's not going to matter how long it took.  We're already debating these guys' careers and they're not finished.  (Let's be honest...that's part of the fun.)   Whereas it may not be exactly "where you start," as in how early or quickly, and "how you finish" is going to matter, in terms of hardware and records; how you go along in between against the other greats is going to matter, too, since this is an era of several all-time greats playing each other.

Specific to Djokovic and the H2H with Nadal, it is notable that it has taken Novak so long to even get to a tie.  While I don't think it's completely fair to give Djokovic a pass for a slow start, given that there is less than a year difference in their ages, Rafa has kept his nose in front for the last 4 years, even since the emergence of Nole 2.0, and including winning more of the big moments.  Novak is having an amazing time in his own tennis.  But, after 9 years of trying, he finally beat a less-than-imposing Rafa at RG, and tied the h2h in Nadal's worst year since probably 2003.  These are distinctions worth making, in their relative careers.  Because Federer and Nadal will probably be debated forever, and Djokovic wants to be in that debate, too.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
Edbergs Ghost wrote:
94% then. And still excellent.

Wait…you were making all of that point because Djokovic finally tied their H2H? That’s a bit sad, really. Since it only took 9+ years.

</blockquote>
Why does it matter how long it took? It is their whole careers that matter. It’s not how you start, but how you finish, I always thought.

Some players start better in their younger years, some need a bit of time to develop. But at the end of their careers, we’ll tally then, all right?

Because beating a guy when he's in his prime and beating a guy who's on the decline are not two equally impressive things. Yes, the numbers won't show that, but when objectively assessing things, then surely it matters. But I'm sure it's a coincidence that Novak hadn't beaten Nadal in three million tries at RG and he finally did it this year.

 

[DarthFed]

Twisted wrote:
^ You can’t use the age excuse when they are only one year apart. Djoker will hopefully continue to make Nads look stupid and that annoying Rafa vs. the top 30 stat will start to get a whole lot worse just like his win %. Father Time is undefeated.

I didn’t actually mention age, I mentioned how long it had taken Novak to tie the h2h. And you’re the one that mentioned Father Time, in the end. I know it annoys you that Rafa has had a positive h2h over much of the field for such a long time, as well as his win %. But it does bear mentioning, (and since you mentioned it…thanks…,) because it is often Federer fans on the forums who take the tack that Roger’s negative showing vis-a-vis Nadal isn’t so important, as it’s his showing versus the field that matters. If that point is taken, then it is worth noting Nadal’s very good record against the field, as well. Which in his case includes Federer, Murray and Djokovic.

So basically Rafa got fat in the H2H for the 5 years where Nole was a very good but not great player (2006-2010) and since then it has come full circle even though Rafa was still a major force from 2011-2013 and won RG in 2014.  I don't really see what your point in all this is.  Be grateful it took long for Nole to come into his own