The Fall of Rafael Nadal

[ClayDeath]

in many ways his fall is harder on me than it is on him.

he chose his path. he is comfortable with it.

I just know that he could have stared down history. he chose not to.

 

[ClayDeath]

for the record Rafa has zero masters titles now 2 years running. he also failed to get past the quarterfinals of any of the 4 slams in 2015.

he is now without a hard court title 30 months running. feel free to add another 12 months to that because I don't believe he can win another hard court title. the empirical evidence suggests no titles on the hard courts in the near future. and certainly zero hard court masters titles.

that is a 2 year objective trend. no way to spin your way around that.

 

he is not going anywhere and he is not going to do anything significant with the trends and dynamics in place. and he just said for about the 4th time that he is not going to change a thing. he even added that he is doing fine.

nothing is going to happen unless he goes and embraces clay right away and start putting in monster yards on the fitness front. that is clearly not going to happen.

he has golf tournament next weekend and he has this stupid IPTL league play until December 20.

and then there is x-mas. he then goes to abu dhabi for that exo. Doha will be the next event after that. djokovic is playing Doha also. so you know what is going to happen there. first Rafa wont make the finals. and even if he does, djokovic will be there to destroy him again.

 

I am just not seeing any opportunity for extended work on clay before monte carlo and the rest of the clay season after that. he is going to Rio. what the hell is going to happen there? he will beat his buddy Monaco again or what.

Rafa will again go to Miami to waste about 10 days which could be better utilized to do the hard yards on clay.

if he does exactly what he did this year going into monte carlo then look for 2016 to be worse than 2015. people are not getting this for some reason. rafa is not trying very hard. but he is trying very hard to tell the reporters and the fans that he is going to be working hard or that he will "redouble his effort". going to do it and actually doing it are two different things.

I am not seeing what he is doing to bring about more desirable results in 2016.

people are also making a big deal of Basel. he should have lost to Rosol in his very first match and he very nearly did. he made a huge production of all his other matches there. finally he ran into the old man and failed to close the deal. and that is after having won the second set and having some momentum going into the deciding frame.

 

similarly people are making a huge deal of ATP finals in London. he caught Stan on an off day and he got ferru and andy. ferru is old as dirt and has no weapons and still it took Rafa nearly 3 hours to get rid of him. Andy was not interested in his match at all.

so I did not see anything special from Rafa at the ATP finals. he has always owned the 3 players he beat anyway.

so assuming--as some are doing--that he was back, why the hell would he have any issues with Stan, Andy, and Ferru anyway.

they are not his competition anyway. his competition is Djokovic. being in the top 5 or top  10 means nothing at all when all you have to show for at the end of the year is Rio, Hamburg, and Stuttgart. he ran into a challenger level player in Stuttgart and very nearly lost to him.

 

so I just don't know where people are getting this "resurgence" from. I don't see any resurgence. I see him being on his own little retirement circuit. they are throwing tons and tons of money at him and he is enjoying the limelight and the spotlight. and the corporate world keeps lining up for him. the world loves him and I am ok with that. he deserves the world's praise and adulation. he has earned it.

he is among the most popular global athletes on the planet and I am happy for him and for his family for that but his game and his fitness is not going anywhere.

 

what I fear is a 2016 that is even worse than 2015.

he simply has to make some sacrifices and go embrace clay and also embrace fitness. but clearly he is not going to do it.

 

more next time.

 

[ClayDeath]

in an interview Boris Becker  said that Novak Djokovic  can improve his game and his mental ability. Boris Becker said also " I like the way How Novak Djokovic play he is very fit and plays very solid,He has no problems in playing inside the court, has a more solid serve and doesn't fear to go to the net."

 

[ClayDeath]

for those that believe that Rafa is going to have a better 2016 than 2015, I will make it very easy for you:

simply list the tournaments that you expect him to win in 2016.

also list the number of times he will manage a win over djokovic.

 

go ahead and let the whole world right now about the tournaments that you personally believe he is going to win. it does not get much simpler than that.

put your money where your mouth is. if you honestly believe there is some sort of resurgence and that he is back then show us your belief.

list the events that he is going to win in 2016.

 

 

defense rests.

 

[ClayDeath]

this gets more comical and more ridiculous by the day.

now carlos moya says that rafa can win more if djokovic's level drops.

go outwork djokovic damn fools. resolve to outwork him.

or just sit there while he hands you your sorry ass time and again.

total and complete  devastation 8 out of last 9 times is apparently not enough.

 

[MikeOne]

Nadal's end of 2015 was as good as it was during his prime. Name me 1 year, even 08, 10,13 (his best years) where he did better after USO than he did in 2015? You can argue that his run after USO was on par with how he has fared during this part of the season even in his prime. What does this tell us? That his level significantly improved towards end of the year. The Nadal that was losing on clay to nobodies at the beginning of 2015 would've gotten destroyed by Stan and Murray in EOY atp masters final, no doubt about that. He also wouldn't have made finals of China, finals of Basel (taking Roger to 3 sets in his hometown and best surface), competed so well in Shanghai and Paris. Rafa really did take his game to a much higher level towards end of 2015. This is a very good sign for him, i expect him to do very well at AO, play a level good enough to topple Federer, Stan and possibly Murray. Here's the problem now, Novak Djokovic. Barring injury, Rafa will have a strong 2016 but he will be at the mercy of Novak. If Novak is at his best, Rafael will have a tough time because Rafael simply cannot handle Novak at his best, even clay is not a safe haven.

 

[ClayDeath]

So he is back to square one is what you are really saying.

it doesn't really matter if he decided to fight a little bit in Basel and got a couple wins at ATP finals. Did you forget that he had owned Stan and Ferru his whole life?

djokovic levels can drop 20 percent and still it will be too much for unprepared and unwilling Rafa.

anybody who thinks Djokovic level is going to drop is just a damn fool. he just said he is going to step up his work on his game and his fitness so as to make sure he can keep his competitive advantage.

he is also busy setting goals. He said he is going after the RG crown and the Olympic glory.

now compare that with what Rafa said. He said very clearly that he will go to Rio and then he will see.

he also said that djokovic can't improve much more but he can.

right. Then he can explain his total and complete demolition at the hands of djokovic at ATP tour finals.

so you say Rafa is at the mercy  of Djokovic in 2016.

congratulations mike. you are saying the same thing I have been saying.

djokovic stands at the gates of all the masters events. And he stands at gates of all the slams.

that means 3 years without a single masters title and 27 months without a showing beyond quarterfinals at slams.

also means zero hard court titles since 2013. So that will be like 37 months without a hard court title at the end of 2016.

you call that a stronger Rafa in 2016?

he lingers around in the top 10 while having nothing to his name other than Rio and Hamburg titles at the end of 2016 and you are willing to call that a much stronger Rafa.

 

Why don't you list the titles that you think he is going to snatch in 2016?

saying that he fought a little more at the end of 2015 means absolutely nothing.

 

 

[ClayDeath]

Manolo Santana to the rescue:

he says Rafa could have created problems for Djokovic at the WTF ATP finals.

right. Are these people even watching the same sport.

only thing credible he said is that the 2 hour 40 minute match took a lot out of Rafa. No shit man. His fitness and his physical strength is suboptimal for his style of play.

We all know that mr Santana.

Rafa just talks. He really does not care enough to fix his fitness.

the match was played indoors in climate control conditions.

it is fitness and physicality issue to be sure. That is the biggest issue that is costing Rafa. But it is more than that.

he is not consistent anymore. he simply refuses to put in long hard hours on the practice courts. he is not inconsistent by accident

but I agree with one thing you said mr Santana: Rafa is the only one who can stop Djokovic.

but it will have to be on clay. Forget the hard courts now forever.

 

[ClayDeath]

Still waiting for the Nadal resurgence theorists to step forward and tell the whole world about the tournaments they believe he will win in 2016.

can you really come up any masters events at all, let alone a slam?

beating victor troicki, Monaco, and fognini in worthless events again is not progress and resurgence.

list the  bigger events he is going to snatch up?

And don't tell us that he will finish in the top 10. That is not progress. And it sure as hell is not resurgence.

 

[Mastoor]

I read that Manuel Santana said Rafa was too exhausted after the match with Ferrer otherwise he would beat No1e. Then we don't have to worry about Rafa. ;-)

 

 

[ClayDeath]

I read that Manuel Santana said Rafa was too exhausted after the match with Ferrer otherwise he would beat No1e. Then we don’t have to worry about Rafa.

Nothing dramatic is going to happen in 2016 since Rafa does not really care to win anymore. it is his life and he has made this decision.

he won't fix his fitness and he just said he is not going to change a thing.

he actually said that he is doing just fine.



more later.

 

[ClayDeath]

he has to show a dramatic change in form and fitness here otherwise it is NO CIGAR. he has some time but he is too busy farting around with IPTL for petty change that he does not need. he is the one that has the most to lose from farting around with IPTL.



 

 

it is clay or it is nothing.

 

 

 

[Moxie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_EqBtbK5mo

 

[ClayDeath]

Rafa has said that he wont be ready for the Australian Open but evidently nobody is listening.

and you know now exactly why he wont be ready.

he does not care to be ready. we all have to live with that reality on the ground.

 

I will just have to relive celebrate his greatness of the past and always remember him as the game's greatest gladiator.

 

right now he is a mere shadow of what he used to be.

 

[ClayDeath]

Rafa can fix it all but it is a monumental task. it is one he is capable of taking on. he is the only one who can come back from such a massive decline.

the only problem is that he just does not want to.

it all starts with the following:

1. long and hard hours on the fitness front
2. long and hard hours in the gym to get physically strong once again
3. endless hours on the practice courts. especially clay

 

while Djokovic talks about working--and actually doing it-- all the time to improve all aspects of his game and also about overtaking Rafa, Sampras, and Federer in slams,

all Rafa can say is this: "I don't know if I can be a factor once again at big events".

 

it just breaks my heart to pieces but not much I can do about it.

 

[Moxie]

all Rafa can say is this: “I don’t know if I can be a factor once again at big events”. it just breaks my heart to pieces but not much I can do about it.

Rafa always talks down his options. You should know this. He's been sneered at for talking like this when he was #1. It's his way. It means nothing. There's a very good chance that he comes out blazing and snags some big scalps in 2016. You're within your rights to talk down his chances, but not his work-ethic or commitment. There, I think you're wrong.

 

[ClayDeath]

Clay Death wrote:
all Rafa can say is this: “I don’t know if I can be a factor once again at big events”. it just breaks my heart to pieces but not much I can do about it.

Rafa always talks down his options. You should know this. He’s been sneered at for talking like this when he was #1. It’s his way. It means nothing. There’s a very good chance that he comes out blazing and snags some big scalps in 2016. You’re within your rights to talk down his chances, but not his work-ethic or commitment. There, I think you’re wrong.

I wish I was wrong.



reality on the ground is only available to objective and clear minds like mine.



believe me. I would love to be wrong.





he is in new delhi farting around. before that it was manila. for a bloody pocket change compare to what each additional slam is worth.



each additional slams is worth over $30 million and also a chance to stop a runaway steel locomotive called the djokovic express.

rafa ran away from the fight. you are the only one who does not see it.

he ran away from the biggest gunfight of them all: a chance to face djokovic on the grandest of stages and be able to gun him down.

now he just says that it is no shame to lose to djokovic. and then he runs. I have to live with that each and every bloody waking moment.





but it is his life and his career. he did it his way and he did his thing. now he cant do it anymore and he does not want to.

 

[Moxie]

Face it, you're a fair-weather fan.  You touted him big-time when he was on top of the world, and now you slag him around because it makes you look bad.  I think you take it too personally.  Rafa hasn't given up on himself, nor has he given up on winning.  It's you who has given up on him.  We get it.  Now let's wait until the 2016 season begins and see how it really plays out.  Fair enough?

 

[ClayDeath]

Face it, you’re a fair-weather fan. You touted him big-time when he was on top of the world, and now you slag him around because it makes you look bad. I think you take it too personally. Rafa hasn’t given up on himself, nor has he given up on winning. It’s you who has given up on him. We get it. Now let’s wait until the 2016 season begins and see how it really plays out. Fair enough?

Stop the blind worshipping and mindless bark.

and list the events that you think he is going to win if you are so damn high on him.

you are the one who keeps talking about his resurgence.

and yet you can't find a way to list a single event that he is goin to win.

the world is all ears. Start talking and put your money your mouth is.

And don't worry about my loyalty. I have the the right to call it exactly I see it. And I see it a lot better than most. In fact I can spot trends 4-5 years in advance.

the whole world knows that Muster, vilas, and Rafa are my players but never will I cut them any slack. Blind worship is just not my thing.

 

[ClayDeath]

One simply has to call it like it is. Reality on the ground cannot be ignored.

i have put up the numbers.

he is breaking serve less than 20 percent of time even on clay against top players.

how the hell can you "talk that up"?

he can't get ball back. He even said that it himself. He said he has to come back with a better return of serve in 2016.

and that is after he said everything was just fine. And that all he needs is to improve his serve.

the fact of matter is that the casualties are very heavy in all areas. Every single aspect of his game shows staggering decline.

there is no way to come back from this decline that is 5 years in the making.

he has one card left to play and he is not playing it. He has to embrace clay.

why do you think Nalbandian said it is clay or the exit for Rafa.

but in order to make that happen he has to first produce fitness and physical strength.